If the worse happens in the war, what happens in Thailand?

[Mac Mickmanus]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

The premise of this topic is actually what happens in Thailand if the war escalates to full blown nuclear war where Russia, Europe, and North America are wiped out bringing on global nuclear winter.

 

It might be a good idea to move to Central America again . 

 

[soalbundy]

18 hours ago, Jingthing said:

So you don’t think is possible. 

You're wrong.

No, Putin's hold on power has become precarious of late, even if he gave the order to use a nuke (a low yield would be the size of a Hiroshima bomb) it is the military commanders who would actually initiate the strike and I doubt that they would do so, they better than anyone would know the consequences for themselves and their families. This isn't a scenario where hundreds of american missiles heading for Russia have been detected on radar and a well oiled machine is set in motion to counter strike, a commander would be told from a failing dictator to send a nuke to a country on the border with Russia for no rational purpose. It would be Putin's last order.

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

No, Putin's hold on power has become precarious of late, even if he gave the order to use a nuke (a low yield would be the size of a Hiroshima bomb) it is the military commanders who would actually initiate the strike and I doubt that they would do so, they better than anyone would know the consequences for themselves and their families. This isn't a scenario where hundreds of american missiles heading for Russia have been detected on radar and a well oiled machine is set in motion to counter strike, a commander would be told from a failing dictator to send a nuke to a country on the border with Russia for no rational purpose. It would be Putin's last order.

Wrong topic.

This is ONLY about IF it happens.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, joecoolfrog said:

Its possible but escalation to the degree you suggest is extremely unlikely.

Despite Putin's public bravado he is well aware that Russia is now hugely reliant on China , Beijing would be very hostile to any suggestion of the use of nukes.

Of course Putin may become so delusional that reason desserts him completely . However there would still be calm minds in the Kremlin , an early retirement would be arranged methinks.

If Putin uses even a tactical nuke, China and India would drop him like a hot potato.

 

Russia is a country highly dependent on energy exports. Putin has already lost every oil and gas market in the West, losing what he might still be selling to China and India would mean no income, with a war costing Russia more than 1 billion dollars a day.

 

Given the strains that are already evident between Putin and his military, there is no certainty if Putin gives the order, it would be obeyed.

 

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Wrong topic.

This is ONLY about IF it happens.

There is no sensible 'if' which is why I replied the way I did.

[JimHuaHin]

So, basically, what happens in Thailand if there is large nuclear war in the northern hemisphere?

 

The Thai economy will all but collpase (especially as the Thai economy is heavily dependent upon China, which will be impacted, especially with its high energy dependency on Russia).

 

No monies will be able to be transferred to Thailand from those countries "destroyed".

 

How fast and how much the nuclear fall-out will impact Thailand will depend on what types of nukes were used (dirty or "clean"), how many were used and were they detonated on land or in the air.  The nuclear fall-out will enter the atmosphere and will spread - how far and how fast will depend on prevailing weather and wind patterns.

 

Eventually, some fall-out will impact Thailand; how much and how severe, see the above paragraph.

 

If interested, consult Richard Wolfson and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress "Nuclear Choice for the Twenty-First Century", MIT Press, 2021.

 

 

[Hummin]

9 hours ago, chalawaan said:

I can confidently say, that will not be China. 

 

The game of chess with alot bigger board and more players involved, might give different results than what any analysts can give. Of course someone will be right the end with their predictions, but who really knows? A western alliance with many internal conflicts, and internal challenges in Usa, against a hungry Asian superpower! 
 

The only curtain, those who live will know

[portlandtree]

2 hours ago, IAMHERE said:

Not sure those studies are relevant now that there is no USSR. Russia is a different enemy than in 1989.

Yes true but pootin is a unpredictable psycho manic then again they’ll refuse his nuclear order and terminate him 

[Jingthing]

18 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

There is no sensible 'if' which is why I replied the way I did.

You're wrong.

It's possible. 

Discuss scenario theories on the POLITICAL topics.

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, portlandtree said:

Yes true but pootin is a unpredictable psycho manic then again they’ll refuse his nuclear order and terminate him 

Hopefully. 

But nothing guaranteed.

[Walker88]

The old models of the fallout from a nuclear war were incomplete. Better data and better computer power has yielded a better answer to what the actual outcome would be.

 

In a nutshell, we're all dead. Most will starve to death, as nuclear winter will make it impossible to grow enough crops to feed even 10% of humanity. You can be a Mormon and store a year's worth of food and water. Super, what do you do in Year 2? Year 5? Year 10?

 

Those who have written dystopian novels that consider an epidemic or natural disaster or even a nuclear holocaust were optimists.

 

Cormac McCarthy's "The Road" will seem like a comedy in comparison.

 

We're closer to this scenario than ever, and largely the result of one damaged and dangerous man.

 

Ideally, there is one person, somewhere in russia, who might turn out to be the most important person who ever lived. He or she is the one who will take out putin and stop the insanity.

[soalbundy]

7 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

You're wrong.

It's possible. 

Discuss scenario theories on the POLITICAL topics.

I'm not going to argue with you on this but consider the Cuban crisis, if ever there was to have been a nuclear missile exchange it would have been then, the set up was perfect but in the end cool heads prevailed and a compromise was found, Russia withdrew its nukes from Cuba and the USA withdrew theirs from Turkey. Nobody sits with quivering fingers hovering over the red button.

[ukrules]

18 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The premise of this topic  is IF the worse happens.

That is the starting point.

NOT a place for political theories as above.

You start a topic, you don't control it.

 

[Jingthing]

Just now, soalbundy said:

I'm not going to argue with you on this but consider the Cuban crisis, if ever there was to have been a nuclear missile exchange it would have been then, the set up was perfect but in the end cool heads prevailed and a compromise was found, Russia withdrew its nukes from Cuba and the USA withdrew theirs from Turkey. Nobody sits with quivering fingers hovering over the red button.

No arguing. 

You're posting OFF TOPIC.

That is not cool.

There are other active topics for such escalation theories.

This is only about Thailand IF the worse happens.which is objectively possible.

[Jingthing]

6 minutes ago, ukrules said:

You start a topic, you don't control it.

 

Do I need to spell this out dude?!?

This is not  a political topic.

Members are not allowed to start them. You didn’t know that?

Members obnoxiously hijacking this Thailand related non political topic are going to get it closed 

There are active other topics for political escalation scenario theories. Got it now?

Edited October 8, 2022 by Jingthing

[soalbundy]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

No arguing. 

You're posting OFF TOPIC.

That is not cool.

There are other active topics for such escalation theories.

This is only about Thailand IF the worse happens.which is objectively possible.

Like marshmallows growing on trees.

[Jingthing]

9 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Like marshmallows growing on trees.

If you don’t accept the premise that full nuclear war is possible related to the Rus/Ukr war then you're simply in the wrong topic.

[Thingamabob]

20 hours ago, gearbox said:

So you think in case of nuclear war the Grab drivers would roam through the radioactive clouds to deliver you radioactive food?

 

Unbelievable.

 

 

Lighten up.

[Walker88]

Over time, perhaps 6 months, Thailand ceases to exist. People in NZ will last slightly longer, but to what end? The latest models indicate nobody gets out alive.

 

Perhaps we start a GoFundMe campaign to pay the person who double taps putin. It should---if people truly understand the risk---quickly hit $1 billion. Frankly, it's worth more than that. Guessing there's now perhaps a 15% chance this all ends in nuclear winter, we can figure a value by discounting the future at current rates and come up with about $1 trillion.

[Tropposurfer]

Us soft Westener's will loose our minds, and fall foul of some misadventure right pronto post multiple world mushroom clouds. The village Thais will fair far far better until the predicted nuclear winter kills most of the world life. They'll do as they did in the pandemic. 

We can take some macabre comfort in knowing that stellar examples of our human species will last for years in bunkers.

Such fine examples of humanity as US Senators, lots of military brass, The British and other government cabinets, Putin, Oil sheiks, other oil barons, other really rich folks for some years on their equally rich mates secluded tropical islands and super yachts until the winter takes them too.

What an uplifting and happy-face discussion this has been to participate in. Time for a nice bottle of wine me thinks and some horizontal mambo and await the inevitable horizon ultra-sun-like glows from the north. 

[Jingthing]

45 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

Over time, perhaps 6 months, Thailand ceases to exist. People in NZ will last slightly longer, but to what end? The latest models indicate nobody gets out alive.

 

Perhaps we start a GoFundMe campaign to pay the person who double taps putin. It should---if people truly understand the risk---quickly hit $1 billion. Frankly, it's worth more than that. Guessing there's now perhaps a 15% chance this all ends in nuclear winter, we can figure a value by discounting the future at current rates and come up with about $1 trillion.

Even if it's half a percent that's way too much of a risk considering the consequences.  Of course the exact number can't really be quantified but definitely over zero.

[Jingthing]

I guess if this happens, there will be a big demand for cyanide pills. I don’t see much of a survival path for urban f-rangs.

[Sparktrader]

5 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I guess if this happens, there will be a big demand for cyanide pills. I don’t see much of a survival path for urban f-rangs.

Let us have a bet. 10,000 baht. If no nukes in 6 months you pay me. If nukes I pay you.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

16 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Even if it's half a percent that's way too much of a risk considering the consequences.  Of course the exact number can't really be quantified but definitely over zero.

0.⁰00⁰000000000000000000000000000000000001% be my guess.

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

22 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Hire 5 women enjoy the last few days

 

 

or tomorrow

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

you're simply in the wrong topic.

Happens to me all the time... I hate when that happens. 

[soalbundy]

Since the prevailing winds are from west to east Russia would reap what it sowed, Putin would have a bullet in his head and Russia would be lonelier than a beggar with leprosy and poorer than a church mouse as the world would make sure they paid for all the damage. The west wouldn't retaliate with a nuclear strike but would send NATO forces into Ukraine, the Russian forces would have flown to Russia in panic, something I'm sure that the Russian high command is aware of.

[joecoolfrog]

4 hours ago, JimHuaHin said:

So, basically, what happens in Thailand if there is large nuclear war in the northern hemisphere?

 

The Thai economy will all but collpase (especially as the Thai economy is heavily dependent upon China, which will be impacted, especially with its high energy dependency on Russia).

 

No monies will be able to be transferred to Thailand from those countries "destroyed".

 

How fast and how much the nuclear fall-out will impact Thailand will depend on what types of nukes were used (dirty or "clean"), how many were used and were they detonated on land or in the air.  The nuclear fall-out will enter the atmosphere and will spread - how far and how fast will depend on prevailing weather and wind patterns.

 

Eventually, some fall-out will impact Thailand; how much and how severe, see the above paragraph.

 

If interested, consult Richard Wolfson and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress "Nuclear Choice for the Twenty-First Century", MIT Press, 2021.

 

 

Not all would be lost though , TAT would launch a new  slogan and predict a record number of tourists.

[khunPer]

On 10/7/2022 at 9:19 PM, pasathai said:

more nuclear pollution for the planet

 

Not much, according to the experts; a power station meltdown is 100 to 1000 times worse than a nuclear bomb. However, it might depend of the number of nuclear bombs being detonated.

[joecoolfrog]

2 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Over time, perhaps 6 months, Thailand ceases to exist. People in NZ will last slightly longer, but to what end? The latest models indicate nobody gets out alive.

 

Perhaps we start a GoFundMe campaign to pay the person who double taps putin. It should---if people truly understand the risk---quickly hit $1 billion. Frankly, it's worth more than that. Guessing there's now perhaps a 15% chance this all ends in nuclear winter, we can figure a value by discounting the future at current rates and come up with about $1 trillion.

Nowhere near 15% , considerably less than 1% in my estimation.

You are correct though that a full scale nuclear war would end human life on the planet.

Thailand may last a bit longer then Europe but thats about it , makes this thread moot really.