UK economy only G7 nation to shrink in 2023 - IMF

[Scott]

The UK economy will shrink and perform worse than other advanced economies as the cost of living continues to hit households, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

The IMF said the economy will contract by 0.6% in 2023, rather than grow slightly as previously predicted.

It said its new forecast reflected the UK's high energy prices and financial conditions, such as high inflation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64452995

[pegman]

Just wait for the loss of the EU financial services industry to fully kick in. It will likely be a basket case for at least a decade.

[Thingamabob]

Another IMF 'forecast'. It's only January 2023. Wait and see how things look by the end of December.

[Chomper Higgot]

27 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Another IMF 'forecast'. It's only January 2023. Wait and see how things look by the end of December.

You are right it’s only January.

 

I’m in the UK, it’s already bleak.

[transam]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You are right it’s only January.

 

I’m in the UK, it’s already bleak.

Yep, one of the reasons I bailed, the weather.....

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, transam said:

Yep, one of the reasons I bailed, the weather.....

Sadly I wasn’t talking about the weather, yesterday we were treated to bright sunshine and clean, crystal clear air.

 

But even that cannot brighten the economic gloom of this once thriving economy.

 

 

[puchooay]

41 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You are right it’s only January.

 

I’m in the UK, it’s already bleak.

Please elaborate. Tell us what you saw. What you experienced. What made things look so bleak. 

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, puchooay said:

Please elaborate. Tell us what you saw. What you experienced. What made things look so bleak. 

By example:

 

The closure of two banks in the local town and the replacement of one with an ATM lobby.
 

Shops that were thriving five years ago, struggling six months ago, closed since the summer.  There is no longer a shoe shop in town, the nearest is 20 miles away.

 

A once bustling market (founded 800 years ago), now down to 4 stalls doing very little trade.

 

The closure during the last year of local businesses that have been trading for decades.

 

A marked reduction in the availability of goods and food stuffs in local supermarkets.

 

The closing of local bus services, and the cancelling of services due to lack of drivers.

 

The near doubling of demand for help from the local food bank since August 2022 when I personally was volunteering there.

 

All of the businesses/utility companies etc I’ve contacted while here providing appalling customer contact service ( Still getting the pre-recorded telephone message ’due to COVID we are facing unprecedented staff shortages’)

 

 

 

 

[puchooay]

12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

By example:

 

The closure of two banks in the local town and the replacement of one with an ATM lobby.
 

Shops that were thriving five years ago, struggling six months ago, closed since the summer.  There is no longer a shoe shop in town, the nearest is 20 miles away.

 

A once bustling market (founded 800 years ago), now down to 4 stalls doing very little trade.

 

The closure during the last year of local businesses that have been trading for decades.

 

A marked reduction in the availability of goods and food stuffs in local supermarkets.

 

The closing of local bus services, and the cancelling of services due to lack of drivers.

 

The near doubling of demand for help from the local food bank since August 2022 when I personally was volunteering there.

 

All of the businesses/utility companies etc I’ve contacted while here providing appalling customer contact service ( Still getting the pre-recorded telephone message ’due to COVID we are facing unprecedented staff shortages’)

 

 

 

 

The high streets where i am are doing ok. Not thriving but ok. With so many people shopping online, getting groceries delivered, banking online, working from home so not taking buses and businesses closing their retail outlets to go online it's not surprising things look a little different.

 

Not sure what supermarkets you go to but try going early. With so many people happily shopping, the shelves do tend to deplete during the day.

 

I recently needed to contact OVO energy. Queries all sorted in 10 minutes. I suggest you switch. Don't touch SSE or Virgin (for internet). I'd gave to put those into the awful category. 

 

I applied to become a bus driver in our local area. They put me on a waiting list due to lack of vacancies.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by puchooay

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, puchooay said:

The high streets where i am are doing ok. Not thriving but ok. With so many people shopping online, getting groceries delivered, banking online, working from home so not taking buses and businesses closing their retail outlets to go online it's not surprising things look a little different.

 

Not sure what supermarkets you go to but try going early. With so many people happily shopping, the shelves do tend to deplete during the day.

 

I recently needed to contact OVO energy. Queries all sorted in 10 minutes. I suggest you switch. Don't touch SSE or Virgin (for internet). I'd gave to put those into the awful category. 

 

I applied to become a bus driver in our local area. They put me on a waiting list due to lack of vacancies.

 

 

Personal experiences differ.

 

Which is why verifiable data is so much more informative.

 

 

 

[puchooay]

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Personal experiences differ.

 

Which is why verifiable data is so much more informative.

 

 

 

You said " I'm in the UK, it's already bleak". A good example of your blanket generalisations of doom and gloom.

 

To be accurate you should explain and say something like " my local high street looks bleak. Lots of changes since last time I saw it".

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, puchooay said:

You said " I'm in the UK, it's already bleak". A good example of your blanket generalisations of doom and gloom.

 

To be accurate you should explain and say something like " my local high street looks bleak. Lots of changes since last time I saw it".

“To be accurate you should explain and say something like " my local high street looks bleak. Lots of changes since last time I saw it".

 

You mean like these examples I gave:

 

“Shops that were thriving five years ago, struggling six months ago, closed since the summer.  There is no longer a shoe shop in town, the nearest is 20 miles away.”

 

“The closure during the last year of local businesses that have been trading for decades.”

 

 

 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You are right it’s only January.

 

I’m in the UK, it’s already bleak.

Maybe change location. 

 

The area where I stayed with my family was doing fine. Everywhere was packed. A couple of high street shops had closed due to Covid but apart from that most places were very busy, plenty of money being spent, new cars on the roads etc. It's a bit like hanging around in Khlong Toei and then declaring that Bangkok is a slum and everyone lives in shacks.

[puchooay]

7 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

 

“To be accurate you should explain and say something like " my local high street looks bleak. Lots of changes since last time I saw it".

 

You mean like these examples I gave:

 

“Shops that were thriving five years ago, struggling six months ago, closed since the summer.  There is no longer a shoe shop in town, the nearest is 20 miles away.”

 

“The closure during the last year of local businesses that have been trading for decades.”

 

 

 

Indeed.

 

However, those examples were in reply to me asking how you deciphered the UK was bleak. Your examples show one town. 

[Chomper Higgot]

2 minutes ago, puchooay said:

Indeed.

 

However, those examples were in reply to me asking how you deciphered the UK was bleak. Your examples show one town. 

Please correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t you post this?:

 

“To be accurate you should explain and say something like " my local high street looks bleak. Lots of changes since last time I saw it".

 

You’ve asked for local observation and then object to local observations. 

 

Which brings me back to precisely why verifiable data is so much more informative.

 

 

[puchooay]

The funny thing is, just one minute ago, the BBC changed the headline.

 

They have added "expected to be". Slightly more accurate.

[Chomper Higgot]

13 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

Maybe change location. 

 

The area where I stayed with my family was doing fine. Everywhere was packed. A couple of high street shops had closed due to Covid but apart from that most places were very busy, plenty of money being spent, new cars on the roads etc. It's a bit like hanging around in Khlong Toei and then declaring that Bangkok is a slum and everyone lives in shacks.

Personal experience differ, which is again why verifiable data matters.

 

[JonnyF]

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Personal experience differ, which is again why verifiable data matters.

 

I saw a prediction about the next 12 months.

 

Let's wait until the end of 2023 for the verifiable data.

[candide]

Some charts in the FT.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/e44a1de1-a700-4384-8844-f26982d5c05c

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by candide

[Andycoops]

Yes the Tory Muppets have well and truly sent the UK down the armitage shanks.

First Brexit, then the recent revolving door of PMs put there by less than 200 thousand citizens .

 

Which of course resulted in 33 billion going south in just a week because of Blundertruss and Quarsi, my spelling.

 

And all of a sudden there's no money for nurses etc but they will of course all get their indexed linked pensions.

 

Corrupt politicians everywhere.

[Chongalulu]

3 hours ago, Thingamabob said:

Another IMF 'forecast'. It's only January 2023. Wait and see how things look by the end of December.

Indeed IMF has a poor record - and was previously headed up by the criminal Christine Lagarde! It’s acronym attracted the banner "Institute for  Moronic Forecasting " ???? 

[owl sees all]

 

I think the Germans are in big trouble in 2023.

[Eric Loh]

44 minutes ago, nchuckle said:

Indeed IMF has a poor record - and was previously headed up by the criminal Christine Lagarde! It’s acronym attracted the banner "Institute for  Moronic Forecasting " ???? 

IMF has indeed a poor record in forecasting. Only 6.1% of forecast was within a 0.1% point margin of error. Rest either under or over estimate. But calling Christine Lagarde a criminal is harsh. What did she do to deserve your harsh rebuke.

[connda]

UK economy only G7 nation to shrink in 2023 - IMF

Until it's not.  ????

[JayClay]

8 hours ago, pegman said:

Just wait for the loss of the EU financial services industry to fully kick in. It will likely be a basket case for at least a decade.

A decade? You're optimistic.

 

Even when the UK does rejoin, it's not like all the businesses and industries that are currently leaving en masse are suddenly going to just come back to the UK. Those businesses are lost forever.

[Chomper Higgot]

48 minutes ago, connda said:

UK economy only G7 nation to shrink in 2023 - IMF

Until it's not.  ????

The UK is the only G7 nation not to have recovered its economy to pre-COVID levels.

 

That’s in the bag.
 

 

[candide]

2 hours ago, nchuckle said:

Indeed IMF has a poor record - and was previously headed up by the criminal Christine Lagarde! It’s acronym attracted the banner "Institute for  Moronic Forecasting " ???? 

B.S! They have always employed the best economists in their research department, including a few Nobel prizes! ????

[Scott]

Numerous baiting and bickering, troll posts have been reported and removed.  Continue at your own peril.  

 

[3NUMBAS]

the uk has  replied is a crock of a ***** report

[Credo]

It seems like Brexit was a bad idea.  A very bad idea.