Move Forward party leads Pheu Thai by a wide margin in new poll

[webfact]

 

The Move Forward party is leading the Pheu Thai party by a wide margin in terms of popularity, especially among people aged under 20 and those aged 20-29, although the majority say they will not vote for either of the two parties in the next election, according to Super Poll.

 

Meanwhile, a NIDA Poll shows 39.4% of respondents reject the claim that Pheu Thai is the leader of change, while 18.85% say they don’t believe in Pheu Thai either, compared to 33,67% who believe Pheu Thai is the leader of change in Thai society.

 

The Super Poll Research Centre gauged the opinions of 1,154 people in various professions and occupations between April 15th and 20th.

 

The poll shows 45.1% of the male and 46.1% of the female respondents say they will not vote for either Move Forward or Pheu Thai, but will vote for the other parties. 37.3% of the females and 37% of the males say they will vote for Move Forward. 17.9% of males and 16.6% of females say they will vote for Pheu Thai.

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2024-04-22

 

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[Artisi]

This is surely enough to ensure that Move Forward get the chop, can't have this sort of nonsense being tolerated. 

[hotchilli]

Makes no difference what the people think, want, or vote for...  the conservative elites along with the senate decide what happens.

[mfd101]

The headline seems misleading, given the statistics actually quoted ... Much more mixed in reality.

[newbee2022]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

although the majority say they will not vote for either of the two parties in the next election,

😳😳😳 ....and what relevant party they can choose then??? I'm 🤔 

[spidermike007]

Of course. They won the election. PT stole it and appointed a proxy PM, who is failing miserably. The people know when they have been smoked and disrespected. 

 

The day will come when the youth will control this nation, and the toxic, foul, corrupt army will be reduced to defense only, and prevented from entering politics, which they know nothing about. 

[mikebell]

The final nail in Move Forward's coffin.

[Denim]

The NIDA Poll was conducted between April 9th and 11th among 1,310 people on the topic of Thaksin’s role and Pheu Thai party’s chances in the next election.

 

Wow, they really pushed the boat out for this poll. 1310 peoples canvassed.  Almost double the usual number of people they ask .

 

Both meaningless and misleading.

[mfd101]

51 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The day will come when the youth will control this nation

Hope so, but of course - just like us - the young grow older and, characteristically, more conservative ...

[proton]

41 minutes ago, mikebell said:

The final nail in Move Forward's coffin.

 

How dare they get the most votes, who do they think they are 😀

[Sydebolle]

Interesting times ahead ...... getting the popcorn ready! 

[ikke1959]

The youngsters know it already.. MFP can not be voted for in the next elections because of the disbanding of the party by the CC.  And Pheu Thai?? they are not trustworthy as they have shown already

[dinsdale]

2 hours ago, Denim said:

The NIDA Poll was conducted between April 9th and 11th among 1,310 people on the topic of Thaksin’s role and Pheu Thai party’s chances in the next election.

 

Wow, they really pushed the boat out for this poll. 1310 peoples canvassed.  Almost double the usual number of people they ask .

 

Both meaningless and misleading.

Always good to have an expert on polling on the thread. If you think this is "meaningless and misleading" why don't you look back to the actual results of the last election. This poll suggests that MFP is increasing their lead after what was already a landslide victory in they were undemocratically denied their right to form government. Why would this be "meaningless and misleading"?

[kingstonkid]

It will be interesting to see who is put in the Senate.  Once that is decided then it will be a case of who can win.  You could see MFP get a huge majority so that the Senate has little effect.

 

Remember this is going to be a smaler senate than they have now

[Denim]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Always good to have an expert on polling on the thread. If you think this is "meaningless and misleading" why don't you look back to the actual results of the last election. This poll suggests that MFP is increasing their lead after what was already a landslide victory in they were undemocratically denied their right to form government. Why would this be "meaningless and misleading"?

 

I'm glad you like MFP. So do I . But did you read the full article ?

9 hours ago, webfact said:

The poll shows 45.1% of the male and 46.1% of the female respondents say they will not vote for either Move Forward or Pheu Thai, but will vote for the other parties.

 

This is what I find misleading and meaningless since although , as you say , MFP had a great victory at the polls , this poll implies that at the next election it will be ' other parties ' that get almost 50% of the vote ???  What other parties do they mean ?? The parties associated with the conservative military parties ??

 

This poll suggests that if there were an election tomorrow :

 

9 hours ago, webfact said:

37.3% of the females and 37% of the males say they will vote for Move Forward.

 

Personnaly , I do not think this poll, conducted on a small amount of people not living in the provinces , reflects the true popularity of MFP.

 

Either way , most people ( even Pita himself ) are of the opinion that the MFP will not be contesting the next election since they are likely to be banned again by those who fear an election victory by a party they deem to be too radical.

 

Question is, if MFP are banned and a third incarnation appears , will it stand a fair chance in the next election when both Phua Thai and the military are running scared and will do their best to see that the status quo remains.

[eisfeld]

4 hours ago, Denim said:

The NIDA Poll was conducted between April 9th and 11th among 1,310 people on the topic of Thaksin’s role and Pheu Thai party’s chances in the next election.

 

Wow, they really pushed the boat out for this poll. 1310 peoples canvassed.  Almost double the usual number of people they ask .

 

Both meaningless and misleading.

 

In order to have statistically significant results with relatively low margin of error you need a little bit over 1000 respondents in a poll regardless of population size. Here a good article that explains it for statistics newbies: https://towardsdatascience.com/statistical-foundations-of-election-poll-c1fade2dce2e

[Artisi]

4 hours ago, proton said:

 

How dare they get the most votes, who do they think they are 😀

bloody upstarts

[Denim]

58 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

 

In order to have statistically significant results with relatively low margin of error you need a little bit over 1000 respondents in a poll regardless of population size. Here a good article that explains it for statistics newbies: https://towardsdatascience.com/statistical-foundations-of-election-poll-c1fade2dce2e

 

Well, the link to Tony Pengs vlog is a perfect illustration of the old saying : There are lies , damn lies and then there are statistics :

 

 

Edited April 22 by Denim

[Artisi]

49 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

 

In order to have statistically significant results with relatively low margin of error you need a little bit over 1000 respondents in a poll regardless of population size. Here a good article that explains it for statistics newbies: https://towardsdatascience.com/statistical-foundations-of-election-poll-c1fade2dce2e

Please don't get too technical, you will only confuse the confused even further. 

[eisfeld]

24 minutes ago, Denim said:

Well, the link to Tony Pengs vlog is a perfect illustration of the old saying : There are lies , damn lies and then there are statistics :

 

I don't see how that's an example of that. If anything it's the opposite. It explains both in layman's terms as well as math why asking a bit over a thousand people is enough in a poll which is why nearly all polls ask exactly this amount of people. You critized the size of the poll and said the number of people asked is meaningless. It's not. BTW the video you posted is funny, I like the idea. But he really could have used some better examples. He wants to show that while being mathematically correct you can still completely mislead with statistics but his statistics isn't even right. His first example with the chips vs pretzels is good though.

[Denim]

1 minute ago, eisfeld said:

 

I don't see how that's an example of that. If anything it's the opposite. It explains both in layman's terms as well as math why asking a bit over a thousand people is enough in a poll which is why nearly all polls ask exactly this amount of people. You critized the size of the poll and said the number of people asked is meaningless. It's not. BTW the video you posted is funny, I like the idea. But he really could have used some better examples. He wants to show that while being mathematically correct you can still completely mislead with statistics but his statistics isn't even right. His first example with the chips vs pretzels is good though.

 

Well Tony Pengs vlog starts off with :

 

 

1. The crucial goal/assumption of a poll of being able to select a random sample of voters,
2.  

So right from the get go there is a problem  since to have a truly  ' random sample of voters '  you would have to take that sample from all the voters without any pre screening.  This means you would have to collate all the elligible voters into a computer program and then have the computer randonly select 1000 people to interview , wherever or whoever they might be. But this is not what happens. Those individuals doing the poll will obviously ony talk to people from whom they can expect a coherant answer. They won't look under the motorway for a group of drunks and poll them. And yet , those drunks , if they are adults , will probably be eligable voters. Similarly , the pollsters will not venture into the provinces to interview the computer chosen individuals, they will stay close to base and take their' random sample ' from people close at hand who look like they could answer the questionaire. But this has already introduced screening and bias into the poll so the results will be affected.

 

Thai polls are well known to be inaccurate and this has attracted attention :

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/49635/shy-prayut-voters-or-scared-prayut-voters-election-polls-accuracy-and-bias/

 

The BP has commented on this and about the disparity in results between the Suan Dusit Polls and the Nida polls but forum rules forbit me provideing a link but you can google it using the words Bangkok Post inaccurate polls.

 

Worth noting that none of the pollsters predicted MFPs huge victory because they could not truly select a random sample of voters.

If they could have , then the 1000 people selected would have been able to paint a more accurate picture of the situation in the whole 

country. Statistical fact is that there are more voters living outside Bangkok than in it.

 

[Lancelot01]

8 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Makes no difference what the people think, want, or vote for...  the conservative elites along with the senate decide what happens.

Popular among younger people but they would not vote for either side! 

So what was the point of the poll?

[hotchilli]

2 hours ago, Lancelot01 said:

Popular among younger people but they would not vote for either side! 

So what was the point of the poll?

That did seem a bit odd.

[newnative]

Yaa

[John Drake]

MFP's first and only meaningful act when coming into office was to do a self purge of all its sex harassers. They did nothing else. Not serious people.

[candide]

On 4/21/2024 at 9:44 PM, webfact said:

The poll shows 45.1% of the male and 46.1% of the female respondents say they will not vote for either Move Forward or Pheu Thai, but will vote for the other parties

It would have been interesting to know for which party they would vote....

Edited April 23 by candide

[candide]

On 4/22/2024 at 1:08 AM, hotchilli said:

Makes no difference what the people think, want, or vote for...  the conservative elites along with the senate decide what happens.

 

On 4/22/2024 at 5:59 AM, kingstonkid said:

It will be interesting to see who is put in the Senate.  Once that is decided then it will be a case of who can win.  You could see MFP get a huge majority so that the Senate has little effect.

 

Remember this is going to be a smaler senate than they have now

Due to the nomination process, the Senate will likely be controlled by the conservative elite. However, as I understand, the new Senate will not elect the PM any more.

[sammieuk1]

You have reverse elections here, where you only get what you never voted for, or appeared on any ballot paper, a bit like the David Cameron syndrom the UK experienced but with guns  🤔

[kingstonkid]

On 4/23/2024 at 1:19 PM, candide said:

 

Due to the nomination process, the Senate will likely be controlled by the conservative elite. However, as I understand, the new Senate will not elect the PM any more.

I hope you are right, but even if they do, there are going to be few of them, and I suspect fewer military people, although there may be a huge group of Thaksin fans.

[candide]

1 hour ago, kingstonkid said:

I hope you are right, but even if they do, there are going to be few of them, and I suspect fewer military people, although there may be a huge group of Thaksin fans.

It's not a real election of Senators, rather a selection, and the government is not involved in it. It will likely be controlled by the old elite.