Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Danderman123]

There are reports of a pocket of isolated Russian troops in Vovchansk, trapped in an industrial area. 

 

Usually such pockets disappear with no subsequent reports of large numbers of captured Russian soldiers, maybe this time will be different.

 

The overall theme is that the Russians are retreating in the Kharkhiv direction.

[jvs]

 

[jvs]

 

[jvs]

 

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, rabas said:

Lol. Shoot the messenger, and miss! 

 

He is a tenured Professor of Business.

 

With various degrees in Government and Psychology, Public Policy, Entrepreneurship, and PhD in Organizational Leadership, he's probably as well qualified to discuss Russian propaganda in the US as anyone.

 

As hopefully you know, Russian propaganda is historical, storied, and ubiquitous.   

I hope you are not implying that the west and Ukraine are not using propaganda.

I assume everything from both sides is propaganda.

[tgw]

34 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I assume everything from both sides is propaganda.

 

which is as wrong as assuming one side isn't using propaganda.

 

Ruzzian shills always try very hard to morally equate Ruzzia to Ukraine. no chance pal, and no better luck next time either.

 

It's quite revealing though that "moral equivalence" is the ultimate goal of ruscists' propaganda. They don't even try for more because they already know their place on the moral ladder.

[beautifulthailand99]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I hope you are not implying that the west and Ukraine are not using propaganda.

I assume everything from both sides is propaganda.

Western propaganda isn't of the blatant sort of downright lies that you would see from authoritarian regimes. But it is the shaping of the narrative , by the sin of ommission and ensuring that the career ladders of journalists and opinion formers  only get to rise up that by accepting and reinforcing that narrative that is paid for by the billionaires who own the commanding media and in whose intersts it is served.The most cogent analyis was that of Chomsky in his interview with Andrew Marr many years ago.  After the Vietnam war western goverments made sure any journalists in a war zone get carefully choreographed and selected so that the news they report is that which they want us to see. There will be no more John Pilger's that door is firmly shut.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

But the bigger concern for Mr. Zelensky is that Mr. Biden, with whom his relationship has often been contentious, might be at his last Group of 7 summit. And buried in the fine print of the security agreement they signed with flair lies this paragraph: “Either Party may terminate this Agreement by providing a written notification through diplomatic channels” that would “take effect 6 months after.”

That is exactly the kind of loophole that former President Donald J. Trump exploited with the Iran nuclear agreement, which he abandoned in 2018. Mr. Trump has made no secret of his disdain for Ukraine or his desire to rid the United States of a huge financial commitment there. Instead, he has insisted he could end the war in 24 hours — presumably by telling Mr. Putin he can keep the territory he has already seized.

 

https://archive.ph/tCQce

[Seppius]

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cllldqyg19ro

 

More good news and support for Ukraine from the G7, using Russian money, brilliant. What a hole Putin has dug himself and his country

 

The G7 has agreed to use frozen Russian assets to raise $50bn (£39bn) for Ukraine to help it fight invading Russian forces.

 

 

 

 

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, Seppius said:

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cllldqyg19ro

 

More good news and support for Ukraine from the G7, using Russian money, brilliant. What a hole Putin has dug himself and his country

 

The G7 has agreed to use frozen Russian assets to raise $50bn (£39bn) for Ukraine to help it fight invading Russian forces.

 

 

 

 

There’s going to be a price to be paid by all these actions that the collective west (and Japan sadly, actually strike out sadly) is undertaking. I heard recently that Stoltenberg is now advocating for mandatory contributions instead of just voluntary donations. When the west should be focusing on improving their economies and living standards for their citizens, they are pouring their very limited funds into the endless pit of militarisation against an imagined enemy.

 

Personally, I love all these moves they are taking to self destruct. The dominance of western nations are ending, like with all previous empires as history has shown. We are now entering an era of multipolarity with the global majority coming to the fore, led by China and supported by the other members of BRICS+ (although I don’t trust India in the slightest - a lifetime of experience has taught me so).

 

It’s really a blessing that there isn’t a single western leader with the intelligence, foresight and gumption to buck the trend. 

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

There’s going to be a price to be paid by all these actions that the collective west (and Japan sadly, actually strike out sadly) is undertaking. I heard recently that Stoltenberg is now advocating for mandatory contributions instead of just voluntary donations. When the west should be focusing on improving their economies and living standards for their citizens, they are pouring their very limited funds into the endless pit of militarisation against an imagined enemy.

 

Personally, I love all these moves they are taking to self destruct. The dominance of western nations are ending, like with all previous empires as history has shown. We are now entering an era of multipolarity with the global majority coming to the fore, led by China and supported by the other members of BRICS+ (although I don’t trust India in the slightest - a lifetime of experience has taught me so).

 

It’s really a blessing that there isn’t a single western leader with the intelligence, foresight and gumption to buck the trend. 

Victor Orban has been given the option by NATO to be in it but opt out of paying for Ukraine as long as he doesn't veto it. Imagine that caught on with other countries it is having your cake and eating it. If Trump wins in November the all bets are off and the odds are a coin toss at the moment.

[Seppius]

1 hour ago, Gweiloman said:

There’s going to be a price to be paid by all these actions that the collective west (and Japan sadly, actually strike out sadly) is undertaking. I heard recently that Stoltenberg is now advocating for mandatory contributions instead of just voluntary donations. When the west should be focusing on improving their economies and living standards for their citizens, they are pouring their very limited funds into the endless pit of militarisation against an imagined enemy.

 

Personally, I love all these moves they are taking to self destruct. The dominance of western nations are ending, like with all previous empires as history has shown. We are now entering an era of multipolarity with the global majority coming to the fore, led by China and supported by the other members of BRICS+ (although I don’t trust India in the slightest - a lifetime of experience has taught me so).

 

It’s really a blessing that there isn’t a single western leader with the intelligence, foresight and gumption to buck the trend. 

 

No, they just want to stop tyrant, to send the message to any other tyrants, we will not accept it in the 21st century

 

Can you tell us why you are supporting a person, that is happy to slaughter his own soldiers, flatten a neighboring countries cities, kidnap 30,000 children and start to Russianize them,, disturb the whole of Europe, raise taxes on his own people to fund his folly, and go a long way to set his country back 50 years?

[GroveHillWanderer]

So if things are going so well for the Russians, why is Putin now offering peace terms to Ukraine? 

 

Russia’s Putin sets out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine

 

Suing for peace is not something you usually do if you're on top in a military conflict.

[beautifulthailand99]

52 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

So if things are going so well for the Russians, why is Putin now offering peace terms to Ukraine? 

 

Russia’s Putin sets out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine

 

Suing for peace is not something you usually do if you're on top in a military conflict.

 

 

A war is costly, and right now even with Ukraine facing shortages in munition and manpower, it doesn't seem likely that Russia has the capacity to get significant territorial gains; as long as Ukraine has access to western satellites and produces enough drones, any Russian offensive will be very costly in terms of manpower and equipment.

So anything shorter than Ukraine reaching its breaking point and collapsing, will mean that Russia won't gain much more in the battlefield than they already have.

 

But even if Ukraine were to accept this one, people would start asking questions like "Why didn't we just give them Crimea and the Donbass and save the rest of our territories, prevent the hundreds of thousands of dead, the millions of refugees, the destroyed infrastructure?"

After the war, there will need to be elections and there will be pressure to open the borders which will lead to millions more men fleeing in fear of another Russian invasion and conscription.

So Ukraine is finished either way. They can finish it now or they can keep fighting, keep dying, lose even more lands and collapse entirely. It's beween a rock and a hard place. No one is winning - that is abudantly clear.

[johng]

53 minutes ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

So if things are going so well for the Russians, why is Putin now offering peace terms to Ukraine?

Offering peace on his terms,  cede the territory already lost and give up NATO membership aspirations   he is negotiating from the position of the person with the upper hand/ position of strength.

[johng]

5 hours ago, Seppius said:

What a hole Putin has dug himself and his country

 What a hole the "collective west" has dug for themself  accelerating the  rising of BRICS and demise of the "petrodollar" .

Stealing other countries assets abroad sets a very bad precedent   every other country thinks we might be next  best not have anything to do with this global bully  dump their dollar and trade with friendly countries instead.

[Gweiloman]

1 hour ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

So if things are going so well for the Russians, why is Putin now offering peace terms to Ukraine? 

 

Russia’s Putin sets out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine

 

Suing for peace is not something you usually do if you're on top in a military conflict.

Putin’s Friday proposal threatens to steal the spotlight from imminent negotiations in Switzerland, where at least 90 countries and organizations are set to meet over June 15-16 at the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock for the Summit on Peace in Ukraine.

 

There are so many levels to this crafty move by Putin. Firstly, he shows up the asinine demands of Zelensky 

Putin’s comments contrast starkly with his Ukrainian counterpart’s peace plan. Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s 10-point proposal, outlined in November 2022, demands the restoration of the country’s “territorial integrity” under the U.N. Charter. He has also insisted that Ukraine regain the peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed illegally before the current war, in February 2014.

 

Then, he slowly reveals one of the aces he has up his sleeve

Moscow … has in the past touted the futility of third parties attempting to negotiate a resolution to the conflict without Russia’s participation.

Finally, he tells it as it is

If the peace proposal is refused, Putin added, Moscow’s future demands will be different

This is tantamount to already having a full house at the turn with the possibility of 4 of a kind by the river when the best your opponent can do is a flush. It is not necessary to crush your opponent if that’s not your desire and when you are playing the long game. Contrary to what some less informed posters think, it is in Russia’s interest to keep a buffer zone (ie a neutral Ukraine) between it and the rest of NATO.

 

 

[Gweiloman]

2 hours ago, Seppius said:

 

No, they just want to stop tyrant, to send the message to any other tyrants, we will not accept it in the 21st century

 

Can you tell us why you are supporting a person, that is happy to slaughter his own soldiers, flatten a neighboring countries cities, kidnap 30,000 children and start to Russianize them,, disturb the whole of Europe, raise taxes on his own people to fund his folly, and go a long way to set his country back 50 years?

I’m afraid you are wrong on all counts, in my opinion.

 

 I see what Russia is doing as protecting itself from the growing imperialism of the US in its desperate attempt to hold onto its hegemony. I see the same thing happening in Asia. If the US is successful in pulling Ukraine (and Georgia) into NATO, then it will go on to try and militarise SEA against China. They have already successfully recruited Japan (which has a historical hatred of China and the Asian equivalent of western imperialistic countries) and the Philippines (without doubt, one of the most corrupted countries in the world, putting even Ukraine to shame).

 

China and Russia, for all their faults, have never been imperialistic like the other western countries. Neither has colonies nor have they invaded countries thousands of miles from their own borders. Many on this forum, being from the west, will disagree but the global majority which constitutes close to 80% of the world’s population sees it this way, which is why they are not siding with Ukraine and the west.

 

So, to set the record straight, I’m neither a Putin fanboy nor a Red (this will be met by scepticism from some rather prolific posters but I do not blame them personally for their shortcomings. It is what it is). I just believe a fair and equitable balance is the best way forward for world peace.

[NoDisplayName]

2 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

So if things are going so well for the Russians, why is Putin now offering peace terms to Ukraine? 

 

Russia’s Putin sets out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine

 

Suing for peace is not something you usually do if you're on top in a military conflict.

 

Why now?  Nothing new.  There has been a peace offer since before the beginning, with essentially the same requirements.  No NATO and end of ethnic cleansing.

 

Prior offers would have had the Donbass remain in a Ukrainian federal republic with limited autonomy.  Sadly, democracy happened, and the citizens have voted to leave.

 

The current offer is the same as before......minus Donbass.

 

I'm sure this offer will remain in effect until democracy takes root in Odessa, and then the offer will be revised.

[beautifulthailand99]

18 - 60 Support Ukraine - your country needs you.

 

https://ildu.com.ua/#candidate-requirements

[beautifulthailand99]

A long but interesting read - mapping out future scenarios from a western perspective.

 

Shades of grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and the Global Order (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy)

 

https://csds.vub.be/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/122024-IDP-Simon-and-Boswinkel-Ukraine-Futures.pdf

[stevenl]

9 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

 

A war is costly, and right now even with Ukraine facing shortages in munition and manpower, it doesn't seem likely that Russia has the capacity to get significant territorial gains; as long as Ukraine has access to western satellites and produces enough drones, any Russian offensive will be very costly in terms of manpower and equipment.

So anything shorter than Ukraine reaching its breaking point and collapsing, will mean that Russia won't gain much more in the battlefield than they already have.

 

But even if Ukraine were to accept this one, people would start asking questions like "Why didn't we just give them Crimea and the Donbass and save the rest of our territories, prevent the hundreds of thousands of dead, the millions of refugees, the destroyed infrastructure?"

After the war, there will need to be elections and there will be pressure to open the borders which will lead to millions more men fleeing in fear of another Russian invasion and conscription.

So Ukraine is finished either way. They can finish it now or they can keep fighting, keep dying, lose even more lands and collapse entirely. It's beween a rock and a hard place. No one is winning - that is abudantly clear.

So first you state Russia can not realistically gain anything, then you state Ukraine will lose if they continue fighting.

Looks like you're lost in your own thoughts, not yet fully accepting a dawning realty.

[Danderman123]

As the Russian economy sinks, more Russian men join the army out of financial desperation.

 

Putin is doing a great job as an army recruiter.

[jvs]

 

[Gweiloman]

27 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As the Russian economy sinks, more Russian men join the army out of financial desperation.

 

Putin is doing a great job as an army recruiter.

Very interesting. Where did you get this nugget from? One of the many clickbait links that @rabas likes to share with us? I googled Russian economy and got the following result:

Russia's economy is growing, but can it last?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn7pej9jyo

 

I read elsewhere that Russia has now even overtaken Japan in terms of PPP to become the 4th largest in the world. If true, this would mean that the BRICS countries comprise 3 of the 4 largest economies in terms of PPP. No wonder the west is worried.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

So first you state Russia can not realistically gain anything, then you state Ukraine will lose if they continue fighting.

Looks like you're lost in your own thoughts, not yet fully accepting a dawning realty.

Which is ?

[transam]

2 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Very interesting. Where did you get this nugget from? One of the many clickbait links that @rabas likes to share with us? I googled Russian economy and got the following result:

Russia's economy is growing, but can it last?

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nn7pej9jyo

 

I read elsewhere that Russia has now even overtaken Japan in terms of PPP to become the 4th largest in the world. If true, this would mean that the BRICS countries comprise 3 of the 4 largest economies in terms of PPP. No wonder the west is worried.

 

 

You read elsewhere...............😂

[beautifulthailand99]

9 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

A long but interesting read - mapping out future scenarios from a western perspective.

 

Shades of grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and the Global Order (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy)

 

https://csds.vub.be/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/122024-IDP-Simon-and-Boswinkel-Ukraine-Futures.pdf

I read this report in full and wished I hadn't it's badly written and even plagiarises stuff without attribution.

 

TLDR ; it says the US needs to move onto to the Chinese threat and Europe needs to step up to the plate to come to the defence of Ukraine. It also says that western arnanment production in all areas needs to ramp up and that will act as a detertent but also a good source of arms should conflicts occur. So for decades the US leads in encouraging Ukraine to further breakaway , aids the resultant war and at the zenith says guys we have other priorities -  "Stronger American focus on the Indo-Pacific, which is where the main challenge to global security lies".

 

Oh no, so many countries were already left in ruin by Chinese aggression - NOT ! Reminds me of talk from Noam Chomsky. An area that agrees with US policy is "stable" while an area that disagrees is "unstable". So when the US says a region is "destabilized" it means the current government disagrees with the US. The US will then destabilize the country in order to "stabilize" the region.

 

We are long through the looking glass now but there was a time when our media told the truth. John Pilger RIP.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/13/ukraine-us-war-russia-john-pilger

 

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, GroveHillWanderer said:

So if things are going so well for the Russians, why is Putin now offering peace terms to Ukraine? 

 

Russia’s Putin sets out conditions for peace talks with Ukraine

 

Suing for peace is not something you usually do if you're on top in a military conflict.

Who said it's going well for Russia?

 

He's got what he wants, so he now wants to stop the attacks from Ukraine.

Only the believers in western propaganda think he wants all of Ukraine, IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

16 hours ago, Seppius said:

Can you tell us why you are supporting a person, that is happy to slaughter his own soldiers, flatten a neighboring countries cities, kidnap 30,000 children and start to Russianize them,, disturb the whole of Europe, raise taxes on his own people to fund his folly, and go a long way to set his country back 50 years?

Accepting reality is not the same as support.