A leading US political scientist has warned that Washington risks walking directly into Iran’s “escalation trap” if the conflict deepens — potentially exposing civilian targets across Europe to missile strikes. Robert Pape, a security expert at the University of Chicago, says Iran is signalling a clear strategy: absorb initial attacks, escalate regionally, then threaten civilian targets abroad if Western ground forces enter the fight. The danger, he argues, is that the Donald Trump administration may be underestimating the next stage of the conflict. Iran’s Three-Stage Escalation Strategy According to Pape, Tehran is deliberately climbing an escalation ladder. The first stage involved absorbing Israeli and US strikes that killed senior Iranian figures but hardened domestic support for the regime. The second phase, he says, has already begun — widening the conflict through attacks on shipping and strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. The third stage could be far more dangerous. If US troops deploy on Iranian soil, Pape warns Tehran could shift to direct threats against civilian populations in Western cities. Missile Reach Extends Beyond the Middle East Iran’s expanding missile capabilities are central to that threat. Recent strikes targeting the joint US-UK facility at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia demonstrated ranges far beyond earlier estimates. Analysts say similar systems could theoretically reach European capitals including Paris, Berlin and Rome. Pape says Tehran is deliberately signalling this capability to deter a Western ground invasion. The message, he argues, is clear: escalate further and the battlefield expands dramatically. Ground Troops Could Trigger Global Fallout Washington is reportedly weighing several military options, including the possible deployment of US forces to Iran. But Pape warns that step could trigger the most dangerous phase of the conflict yet. Iranian leaders, he says, may respond with attacks designed to cause indiscriminate civilian casualties outside the Middle East. “Watch the malls, watch the tourist areas, watch the hotels,” he cautioned in a recent broadcast interview. A War That Could Spread Beyond the Region The stakes extend far beyond Iran itself. Even limited escalation could destabilise global energy routes, expose Western cities to new risks and widen a conflict already stretching across multiple fronts in the Middle East. For policymakers in Washington and Europe, the question now is not simply how to confront Tehran — but whether the next move could trigger a far broader and deadlier war. Trump admin just made Iran's 'escalation trap' much more dangerous: expert
Create an account or sign in to comment