Thai baht is still way over-valued. BOT must be propping it up

Apparently President Trump is ... MEHA

... Making Expats Happy Again

 

Don't y'all just hate the guy.  Damn fascist Nazi 

It's been 36 in recent times. 34.8 is nothing.  Let's see 43.  

 

If these countries retaliate with a madman it's going to get ugly.  

I hope the outcome is they decide the US is important and lower tariffs.  

I'm not an economist but if countries give in and lower their tariffs and these new tariffs are removed it seems like things would be better for the US.   Not so much for each country.  

I can assure you I deplore trump but getting NATO countries to pay their commitments and countries to open more imports from the US seems good to me and I'm sure MAGA's.  How can any sane person argue with a tariff chart being unfair when Trump is still less than  their numbers?

TAT will be pleased 

Tourists will have more to spend

Interesting.   Claim is trump used chatgp  to calculate tariffs incorrectly.  It's just a trade ratio.  

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/17dvR1d81w/

Stock up on it while you can.

7 hours ago, dinsdale said:

I've seen that currency manipulation was also part of Trump targeting countries with higher tariffs. He specifically pointed out China. 

Which high tariffs ? The nonsense calculation THis Unendleiss Lyer, the "grab-them-by-the pussy" president of the USA came with ? Has NOTHING to do with the import tariffs of the several countries.

Instead, the reciprocal tariff rate applied to each country was: their trade deficit divided by exports to the U.S., divided by two. 

If the country has a trade surplus with the U.S., or the number resulting from the above formula was less than 10%, then a flat rate of 10% was applied. 

For example, the U.S. has a $235.6 billion trade deficit with the European Union, which exports a total of $605.8 billion to the U.S. Based on the White House’s formula, $235.6 divided by $605.8 equals 0.388, which divided by half is 0.194. That number gets rounded up to 0.2, which leads to a 20% tariff rate. 

 

A real calculation is too difficult for the no-brainers in the Trump-administration.

And many US citizens.. are not able to correct it. 

2 minutes ago, PuiPuiHarry said:

Which high tariffs ?

Higher I said. Can you not read? As for the rest of your cut and paste response it needs to be sourced.

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Trump has no idea what he's doing, he's totally out of his league, he's being poorly advised, and the world is paying the price for his arrogance.

Mike, please stick to your complaints on imported wine prices in LOS, they were a lot more amusing.

58 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Higher I said. Can you not read? As for the rest of your cut and paste response it needs to be sourced.

You can do the calculations yourself. He is correct.

3 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Apparently President Trump is ... MEHA

... Making Expats Happy Again

 

Don't y'all just hate the guy.  Damn fascist Nazi 

the people who hate him is because they think it's the thing to do. 

but ignore all the good things he's done. it's selective memory at its finest. 

It went down 1 point. OMG !Panic time!

Geez ...

I hope it goes down to 37-38 to usd . I'll start buying up baht. 😆 

LOL.

 

The Don.

7 hours ago, riverhigh said:

"The Thai government's task is now to smartly navigate looming opportunities and threats in light of this significant US tariff challenge. In summary, the baht's facing a tumultuous path ahead, with potential to dip further if strategic measures aren't promptly deployed."

 

This is not complex problem. A problem that even a person  of minimal intelligence can solve. Reduce tarrifs against the USA and stop being stupid. Okay, just reduce the tarrifs. Stop being stupid is a big ask.

 

Will the USA remove its longstanding trade barriers that were in place long before Trump raised the issue of tariffs? e.g. Bans on citrus. Want some tasty peanuts? Not allowed. The pesticide and fungicide infused  US peanuts  benefit from their protected market.

 

 

Let's aim for 45 Bhat given out for 1 €uro....that would be perfect. 😜

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Picture courtesy of Kasikorn Research Centre

 

The Thai baht is expected to plunge to an alarming 34.50 per US dollar following the US's unexpected announcement of a hefty 37% reciprocal tariff on Thai imports.

 

On Thursday, the baht staggered to its weakest in two and a half months, recording a value of 34.38 per dollar in trading, primarily due to these severe trade measures.

 

Kanjana Chockpisansin from Kasikorn Research Center, Thailand, shared that the latest tariff decisions might drive the baht further downwards.

 

The surprising 37% tariff, significantly above the anticipated 10-25% range, is likely to erode investor trust and stir a ‘risk-off’ sentiment amongst investors.

 

This approach may accentuate economic woes, with greater pressure anticipated for the baht against the dollar, even amidst a rise in global gold prices, traditionally seen as a financial safe haven.

 

 

 

 

As the baht flittered between 34.07 and 34.45 per dollar post-announcement, analysts note the unsettling environment across markets.

 

Krungthai Global Markets noted the baht began Thursday at 34.38 per dollar, recording a notable drop from the prior day’s 34.16, highlighting forex volatility.

 

While the 37% tariff sits below American predictions of a towering 72%, it surpasses market assumptions, leading to intensified market uncertainty and heightened risk aversion amongst investors.

 

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai of Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group urged the importance of strategic negotiations to dampen these tariff impacts. Internal and external discussions, particularly those targeting critical economic spheres like agriculture, food, energy, and finance, may be pivotal.

 

The Thai government's task is now to smartly navigate looming opportunities and threats in light of this significant US tariff challenge.

 

In summary, the baht's facing a tumultuous path ahead, with potential to dip further if strategic measures aren't promptly deployed.

 

The situation underscores the volatile nature of international trade and finance, demanding vigilant and tactful economic diplomacy to safeguard Thailand's financial stability amidst US tariff frictions.

 

Based on a story by Bangkok Post

 

-- 2025-04-04

 

 

Reciprocal tariffs being the key word here , easy to remedy just lower your tariffs and the US lowers theirs back down 

37-38 is a plummet, not 34........hurry up and plummet ! 

Might be worth buying $10k worth of Baht in the weeks ahead.. let's see if it will go up to 37 per $1 .. that'd be a buy opportunity.

14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

All nations must consider ways to insulate themselves from the insane trade policies of the US, only two times in the past has the US engaged in the kind of trade policies they are now engaged in. Both times in 1828 and1930 it resulted in a pretty severe depression.

 

Trump has no idea what he's doing, he's totally out of his league, he's being poorly advised, and the world is paying the price for his arrogance. So will the US. The baht very well could climb higher against the dollar, as I expect the dollar to start weakening. 

another chicken little ..  the sky is falling 

 

 wait for it..  wait 

 

Here are today's forecasts for the Thai baht for the rest of the year.

N.B.  These forecasts are dynamic and change on a daily basis but the general trend is clear.

 

 

 

Inflammatory posts and the replies have been removed:

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1 hour ago, IsaanT said:

Here are today's forecasts for the Thai baht for the rest of the year.

N.B.  These forecasts are dynamic and change on a daily basis but the general trend is clear.

 

 

 

Why I never traded currencies, as doesn't even keep up with inflation.  5-6% ROI ... why bother 

 

Might as well spend and enjoy living, instead of losing money.  That shouldn't even be called 'investing' or 'ROI'.

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Why I never traded currencies, as doesn't even keep up with inflation.  5-6% ROI ... why bother 

 

Might as well spend and enjoy living, instead of losing money.  That shouldn't even be called 'investing' or 'ROI'.

 

You're right.

 

For clarity, I wasn't implying that anyone should be trading this - I was just passing on the good news that it's likely that we'll get a bit more purchasing power as the year goes on, as the thread is about the recent Baht weakness.

 

12 minutes ago, IsaanT said:

 

You're right.

 

For clarity, I wasn't implying that anyone should be trading this - I was just passing on the good news that it's likely that we'll get a bit more purchasing power as the year goes on, as the thread is about the recent Baht weakness.

 

From history, past experience, past administrations, whether they had anything to do with it on not, I'm not surprised about any 10-20% fluctuation of the exchange rate during any administration or 5-10 year period of time.

 

Although the past 15 years, with few exceptions, the USD/TH exchange rate has been 30-35 to $1 USD.  

 

I got here in 2000, and once the THB settled (40 to 45 to 30), during my time here, after the crash, it's been in the 30-35 range mostly, occasional dipping below 30, and nice when above 35.

20 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

All nations must consider ways to insulate themselves from the insane trade policies of the US, only two times in the past has the US engaged in the kind of trade policies they are now engaged in. Both times in 1828 and1930 it resulted in a pretty severe depression.

 

Trump has no idea what he's doing, he's totally out of his league, he's being poorly advised, and the world is paying the price for his arrogance. So will the US. The baht very well could climb higher against the dollar, as I expect the dollar to start weakening. 

I love how you leftoids all assume you're secret geniuses that could run the government far better than anyone on the right.

Some off topic deflection posts have been removed.

Should be at least 38-40 THB to the dollar. It's being artificially propped up and doesn't move in sync with other currencies. At some point they will be forced to let the baht float without interventions. And given the fact they will soon lose more manufacturing sales to the US, that means they will not be getting as much foreign/hard currency to add to the reserves. Tourism can only provide so much... but it's not enough.

come on man, Thai baht is still strong as hell. Under 35 is considered strong. 

On 4/4/2025 at 7:34 AM, Formaleins said:

50% would be the kind of plummeting I'd love to see - where are the good old days of 1997 and 1998? 85-90 Baht to the pound! The good old days of buying a pickup and selling it for more than you paid 5 years on!

Well not all of us with real estate and money in the bank who one day may want to repatriate with a rate like you wish for would be devastating . It works both ways  depending on your circumstances ... 

On 4/4/2025 at 4:46 AM, KireB said:

No, it hasn't. The Thai Baht gets its value because people buy a lot of Baht (investors, tourists). Market forces determine the value of a currency.
 

Ha ha ha. Nope. 
 

https://www.americanautomakers.org/currency-manipulation-101
 

https://www.currencytransfer.com/blog/expert-analysis/how-central-banks-govern-currency-values#:~:text=Central banks can manage their,to buy its own currency.