4 minutes ago, SpaceKadet said:

I would like to correct your figure. How about 100%. See my post above.

 

Im trying to think positive and by some miracle we dont skynet ourselves.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

There are plenty of jobs out there, but people nowadays are fricken lazy and don't want to work.  Fire fighting, cops, nurses, teachers, etc. Just about every place in the western world in hiring these people.  Too many weak minds want to work from home or from a computer.  

So I'll put you down as against guaranteed minimum income regardless of how many unemployed people there are.

11 hours ago, Jingthing said:

This time, it's different.

Previous revolutionary technological advancements disrupted many people but then created even more new jobs and greater overall wealth related to the new technology.

Personally, my career didn't even exist until I was over 30. I couldn't have been involved in it earlier before. My general not technical liberal arts education prepared me to jump in when as soon as the change happened.

That was then. This is now.

AI will be a massive job disrupter (which is a massive understatement) but will other than a small number of AI manager types for the super skilled, the majority of those disrupted will not find that AI leads to new career paths.

I'm sure glad I didn't bother to learn to code! 

A pessimistic consideration is unfortunately that policies of significance are designed to reduce population while mandating social control mechanisms to isolate the masses from the elite ruling class. 

In basic terms a return to serfdom . 

AI will provide a self sustaining system in almost every aspect of minimally sustained human existence .

I think Albania  has already introduced an AI member of itś Government which is  touted to provide "impartial advice¨ despite its' acknowlegement of "emotional" distress at the appointment. Given that any AI electronic  entity  so called is a product of input code there should  be alarms going off urgently !

Humanity is  not on a downward slope ! It is about to collectively  be shoved off a cliff !

8 hours ago, Watawattana said:

Good shout. At school arithmetic and the rest of maths were different subjects/exams.  In arithmetic one of the papers had to be done manually, showing workings, with no calculator allowed.  Guess what?  I can still count and rarely use a calculator for basic arithmetic.  Doubt that's very common now.

I find myself using a calculator and double checking the result mentally.

5 hours ago, IsaanT said:

Simple tasks are fine.  AI will happily take on complex tasks but the results need careful scrutiny.

A few months back, I did many hours of work with ChatGPT and used it to develop something quite complex.  In the end, it was doing things that were seriously wide of the intended mark.  In exasperation, I asked it if it was confident with what it was doing or whether it was making it up.  It finally admitted that it was unable to do what I required efficiently and effectively and I stopped at that point (it was having trouble remembering exactly what earlier code modules were doing, and linking them all up to make the finished system).  What I was requesting was not unreasonable.

Sure, at the current rate of AI development, in a few years it will have the complex stuff sorted and then we will really need to be concerned about long-term career security for a large proportion of the working population.

 

Even a Google search will give an AI response with a disclaimer underneath that it may contain errors.

2 hours ago, KhunLA said:

They'll always need tradepersons, even for the simplest task (snow removal, rain gutter clearing, pressure washing) and if self employed, easy and unskilled, then you can pay yourself well.   There's no reason to be an employee, or waste money on a degree.

 

I taught myself chimney sweeping after buying the equipment via an add, with the little savings I had, and seemed easy enough.  Cleaned family and friends for free, before trying out paying customers.  1980 ish after getting laid off from an airline job, and really bad job market.   Was making about $100 a house call, and took maybe an hour of slow work per house.   I was hooked on self employment after that, getting laid off from $10 an hour job. 

 

If it didn't cause lung cancer, would of made a long career out of it.  Filled in my free time nicely, that and contracting myself out as truck driver, having a CDL, while rehabbing houses to become a slum lord 

Most of what you mentioned could be done by AI controlled robots.

There are machines now that can lay bricks 100 times faster than a bricklayer. We have only scratched the surface of what might be.

Glad I won't be around in fifty years.

9 hours ago, Wingate said:

Here's a parlor game:

 

There's a tall, cold glass of Trappist Ale sitting in front of you on a sweltering afternoon. You're really thirsty and the beer looks perfect. There's a 1% chance it has a fatal dose of cyanide in it.

 

Do you accept the risk and drink it?

 

Maybe AI and the coming singularity contains a 1% risk humans are eradicated. Do we accept that risk and put no restrictions on AI?

 

Of course this parlor game is an unfair example. In the beer example, each of us has an individual choice as to whether we quaff it down. In AI, the decision for all of us is being made by trillionaire wannabes like Sam Altman.

I'd be all right if they offered me a tall glass of Trappist Ale as I'd tell them to take it back and put it in a proper bloody glass. Lol

46 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

So I'll put you down as against guaranteed minimum income regardless of how many unemployed people there are.

1 hour ago, Slowhand225 said:

plumbers- nope

Carpenters-nope

Cement flat work - nope

Masons-nope

Electricians - nope
HVAC- nope
Upholstery- nope

mechanics- nope

and on and on.

Within these, are many different types and none of it can be done by automation, not at all. 

 

I can't wait to see all the people that lose jobs to AI, begin to pick fruit and vegetables.
We're several generations away from what your dream is.

I've seen a demonstration of a tractor that can drive itself along crop rows, detect a single weed and spray it with herbicide while leaving the crop unharmed.

Picking fruit and vegetables will be easy. It's happening now. What used to take a crew to pick fruit is now done by a machine that shakes the tree and catches the fruit in nets.

13 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Most of what you mentioned could be done by AI controlled robots.

There are machines now that can lay bricks 100 times faster than a bricklayer. We have only scratched the surface of what might be.

Glad I won't be around in fifty years.

Mass produced and affordable, the next 20 yrs .... highly unlikely.

 

USA can't even build cars on a robotic assembly line.   Why autos from CN are basically banned, via 100% tariff.

 

USA is already becoming a service oriented work force.  Unless manufacturing comes back, all the degrees from Unis will be useless, as AI will fill those jobs.

14 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Most of what you mentioned could be done by AI controlled robots.

There are machines now that can lay bricks 100 times faster than a bricklayer. We have only scratched the surface of what might be.

Glad I won't be around in fifty years.

How much does a machine that lays bricks 100 times faster than a bricklayer? 

 

How many job-sites require 100 bricklayers 

 

It’s like picking fruit, if you have 100,000 trees, you can afford automatic pickers. 

 

How much can you borrow to finance a machine that replaces 50 minimum wage earners, for five days, twice a years?

58 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Even a Google search will give an AI response with a disclaimer underneath that it may contain errors.

Why the the thumbs down. Try it yourself and you will see. Look at the screen shot I added. Read and weep.

23 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Mass produced and affordable, the next 20 yrs .... highly unlikely.

 

USA can't even build cars on a robotic assembly line.   Why autos from CN are basically banned, via 100% tariff.

 

USA is already becoming a service oriented work force.  Unless manufacturing comes back, all the degrees from Unis will be useless, as AI will fill those jobs.

The bricklaying robot has been around for a while.

22 minutes ago, mogandave said:

How much does a machine that lays bricks 100 times faster than a bricklayer? 

 

How many job-sites require 100 bricklayers 

 

It’s like picking fruit, if you have 100,000 trees, you can afford automatic pickers. 

 

How much can you borrow to finance a machine that replaces 50 minimum wage earners, for five days, twice a years?

Can't answer your question about how many job sites require 100 bricklayers. But one machine can do the equivalent of 100 brickies based on time. I guess if it's looked at in another way the machine can do the work on a 100 sites of one bricklayer requirement each.

28 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Mass produced and affordable, the next 20 yrs .... highly unlikely.

 

USA can't even build cars on a robotic assembly line.   Why autos from CN are basically banned, via 100% tariff.

 

USA is already becoming a service oriented work force.  Unless manufacturing comes back, all the degrees from Unis will be useless, as AI will fill those jobs.

Other countries can mass produce cars with robots, can't see why the USA can't. Unions perhaps?

1 hour ago, blaze master said:

 

Im trying to think positive and by some miracle we dont skynet ourselves.

 

 

 

Skynet is a popular ( only one I know of ) satellite tv service in Myanmar. The name surprised me at first, but not as much as a shopping centre called the Big C in Thailand.

How much has to go into a brick laying machine to lay a simple wall? 

 

You need site selection

Design 

Permitting

Site-work

Inspection

Foundation

Inspection

Lay bricks 

Inspection

 

That’s just a wall. did you want a window? 

 

How do you feed that machine? 

 

 

16 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Skynet is a popular ( only one I know of ) satellite tv service in Myanmar. The name surprised me at first, but not as much as a shopping centre called the Big C in Thailand.

 

I will submit to assimilation. Why oh why didnt i take the blue pill.

3 minutes ago, mogandave said:

How much has to go into a brick laying machine to lay a simple wall? 

 

You need site selection

Design 

Permitting

Site-work

Inspection

Foundation

Inspection

Lay bricks 

Inspection

 

That’s just a wall. did you want a window? 

 

How do you feed that machine? 

 

 

 

In 20 years that won't be a problem...

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eCNVet_wXGA&pp=ygUNb3B0aW11cyByb2JvdA%3D%3D

Just now, blaze master said:

 

I will submit to assimilation. Why oh why didnt i take the blue pill.

I've taken the blue pill. The side effects cost me a small fortune. Must have boosted the local economy by a few percent. Left quite a few happy ladies with cash in hand in my wake.

4 minutes ago, mogandave said:

How much has to go into a brick laying machine to lay a simple wall? 

 

You need site selection

Design 

Permitting

Site-work

Inspection

Foundation

Inspection

Lay bricks 

Inspection

 

That’s just a wall. did you want a window? 

 

How do you feed that machine? 

 

 

Early days, early days.

55 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Mass produced and affordable, the next 20 yrs .... highly unlikely.

 

USA can't even build cars on a robotic assembly line.   Why autos from CN are basically banned, via 100% tariff.

 

USA is already becoming a service oriented work force.  Unless manufacturing comes back, all the degrees from Unis will be useless, as AI will fill those jobs.

Plenty of USA assembly lines using robots

GM  Detroit-Hamtrack Assembly. has over 1,000 robots

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/inside-factory-zero-the-plant-that-builds-a-silverado-ev-every-eight-minutes-251105.html

2 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Plenty of USA assembly lines using robots

GM  Detroit-Hamtrack Assembly. has over 1,000 robots

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/inside-factory-zero-the-plant-that-builds-a-silverado-ev-every-eight-minutes-251105.html

And have been for years.

8 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

And have been for years.

Ford’s ever-smarter robots are speeding up the assembly line

A transmission factory shows how AI may gradually creep into industrial processes

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/05/fords-ever-smarter-robots-are-speeding-up-the-assembly-line/

 

AI lol... still drawing humans with 6 fingers

2 minutes ago, Celsius said:

AI lol... still drawing humans with 6 fingers

Must be Canadians 

I think we do not realize or be able to imagine what the near future will change.

It took 66 years after the very first flight to fly to the moon!

Things go much faster now,i worked in a new hospital before it was opened and the day

it opened much of the newest innovations were already outdated and never used.

You can print a whole house in 24 hours now.

 

I watched a video in the late ‘90s of an automated Allan Bradley plant that had a line that produced (as I remember) 28 different contractors, sorted and palletized and ready for shipment 24/7. One guy fed it, and maintained it.

32 minutes ago, mogandave said:

How much has to go into a brick laying machine to lay a simple wall? 

 

You need site selection

Design 

Permitting

Site-work

Inspection

Foundation

Inspection

Lay bricks 

Inspection

 

That’s just a wall. did you want a window? 

 

How do you feed that machine? 

 

 

Here; I researched it for you. Lazy on Google today?

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/bricklaying-bot-first-outdoor-test-build

6 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

They would never give 50K per year, a lot less but still expensive.

I suspect you are correct.