Picture courtesy of Bangkok Bank

 

The Thai baht may strengthen to 30 to the US dollar soon, analysts predict, driven by record-high gold prices and a weakening dollar. Dollar weakness, US-Venezuela tensions, and strong central bank purchases have contributed to recent increases in gold prices, which are now approaching $4,500 per ounce.

 

The baht reached a 4.5-year high of 31.10—31.12 per dollar as the gold price rose, while the dollar index dropped to 98.10 in Asia. Additionally, the yen's appreciation to 156.00 per dollar has influenced the baht, prompting Japan to issue an intervention warning.

 

"In the short term, the baht could test 31 to the dollar or stronger," noted a currency trader. Gold's 70% rise this year has aligned with the ‌baht's more than 10% increase, making it the region's top-performing currency. Ratasak Piriyanont from Kasikorn Securities highlighted the correlation between baht and gold movements.

 

Poonyawat Sreesing from Siam Commercial Bank stated that global factors primarily influence the baht. However, undisclosed domestic factors are also in play. Measures by the Bank of Thailand to control capital flows are ongoing, though time-consuming.

 

Sreesing advised against harsh state interventions, citing Thailand's fragile capital market. Kanjana Chockpisansin from Kasikorn Research Center called for agency collaboration to manage baht fluctuations. Tracking gold movements and data integration are critical steps suggested for dealing with the issue, reported the Bangkok Post.

 

Key Takeaways

• The Thai baht may appreciate to 30 against the dollar amidst rising gold prices.
• Gold's increase, geopolitical issues, and dollar weakness are key drivers.
• Experts emphasise coordinated efforts to manage currency fluctuations.

Related Stories:

Baht Hits Four-Year High, Puts Pressure on Bank of Thailand

Thai PM Anutin Urges Action on Strong Baht Currency

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-12-24

 

 

 

Just in time for the high season a bit suss  no manipulation here

"best performing" like it is some kind of regonal challenge they have won, seems more like the continue to shoot themselves in the foot, sitting on their hands won't improve things, this quite frankly sounds like manipulation, still can't figure out who benefits except those wanting to move money out of Thailand, I get the feeling they are hiding something - but what ?

They’ll probably repeg the fallen Dollar at 25.  Doubt many Americans would visit, and even fewer would continue to live here.  The higher the Baht—the less we shall spend.  Of course BoT could devalue the Baht…

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

 The higher the Baht—the less we shall spend.

 

I think the correct phrase would be, the lesser we will get for the same money spent

Good for a few no doubt but not good for Thailand overall. In the unlikely event of a fullscale war and invasion by Cambodia, am sure the teflon baht would still perform admirably.  

Good to have the best performing currency. The stronger it gets the better. Tourist will stay away, business and economy will go down and the poverty will increase. But who cares. We have the best performing currency

4 hours ago, smedly said:

I get the feeling they are hiding something

 

It's the inverse of Canada's destruction of our currency.  Down 20 percent against the baht since I arrived in September 2022.  Both economies are being gutted; Thailand through expensive exports and Canada through stupid trade policies and money printing.  

This whole Gold trading mumbo jumbo is nonsense...

 

India has a large chunk of the world's supply of gold.And vast amounts of gold are traded there every day...

 

Yet the Indian Rupee has been falling like a rock against the baht even more so than the US dollar....

 

So why is the Rupee not shooting to the moon with all this gold trading?

1 hour ago, redwood1 said:

This whole Gold trading mumbo jumbo is nonsense...

 

India has a large chunk of the world's supply of gold.And vast amounts of gold are traded there every day...

 

Yet the Indian Rupee has been falling like a rock against the baht even more so than the US dollar....

 

So why is the Rupee not shooting to the moon with all this gold trading?

totally agree, something just stinks............what are they hiding

 

Like I said said before - an easy and reasonably safe way to drop the baht is to print money, whatever the reason they seem reluctant to do, the influence is a powerful one

the strong THB hurts expats in thailand in particular, one has to wonder why they arent complaining ?

or at least vouching for a weaker THB

5 minutes ago, mordothailand said:

the strong THB hurts expats in thailand in particular, one has to wonder why they arent complaining ?

 

A very strong Thai Baht will cause poverty on a mass scale in Thailand.....Thailand's manufacturing base, which they love to yap about, will be torpeotoed...

1 hour ago, smedly said:

totally agree, something just stinks............what are they hiding

 

Like I said said before - an easy and reasonably safe way to drop the baht is to print money, whatever the reason they seem reluctant to do, the influence is a powerful one

I believe they will blame Cambodia for destroying the Thai economy and tourism, as they don't see the damage they are doing by manipulating the THB

11 hours ago, webfact said:

undisclosed domestic factors are also in play

😄

Slow economy, high household debt, slow tourism, tariffs on exports and a very strong baht. I always thought that this would see a weakening in a currency but I'm not schooled in economics.

40 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

I believe they will blame Cambodia for destroying the Thai economy and tourism, as they don't see the damage they are doing by manipulating the THB

 

Who  "They" are is up for debate....But they know exactly what they are doing regarding the baht..

 

And I think your right about Cambodia...

8 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

They’ll probably repeg the fallen Dollar at 25.  Doubt many Americans would visit, and even fewer would continue to live here.  The higher the Baht—the less we shall spend.  Of course BoT could devalue the Baht…

 

I very clearly recall when the NTD hit 26, which had been unthinkable at the time.

 

What a shocker for Taiwan exporters.

 

And, yes, it was clearly predicted months in advance, in the press.

But, nobody believed it until it happened.

 

If the same happens here, we will need to begin buying more stuff from Amazon USA.

 

47 minutes ago, redwood1 said:

Who  "They" are is up for debate

Some high level Thai elites perhaps? Some that have close ties with the CCP and the Chinese casinos and scam call centres in Cambodia perhaps?

What I wish Thailand would do is curtail import tariffs on major healthy food items, like dairy, olive oil, balsamic vinegar. This would drive the baht lower while providing some benefit to the population.

 

This being said, I don't wish for the baht to weaken too much, because this would bring more hordes in.

21 minutes ago, JackGats said:

What I wish Thailand would do is curtail import tariffs on major healthy food items, like dairy, olive oil, balsamic vinegar. This would drive the baht lower while providing some benefit to the population.

yes the average Thai consumes a lot of what you mention - not........The only benefit would be to a few foreigners and those with money. As to making any difference to the exchange rate.....

Do you really believe what you said.....

18 minutes ago, topt said:

yes the average Thai consumes a lot of what you mention - not........The only benefit would be to a few foreigners and those with money. As to making any difference to the exchange rate.....

Do you really believe what you said.....

Indeed the average Thai will not consume a lot of what I mention at prices even well-off expats find extortionate. 

 

For the impact of imports on exchange rates, see Economics 1001.

Admittedly the USD has weakness, due to reduced interest rates, the perceived loss of Fed independence, and dovish comments from some of the newest Fed governors.

Yet the Vietnamese Dong remains near a multi year low vs. the USD.  Watch out, Thailand, someone’s eating your lunch.

10 hours ago, GammaGlobulin said:

 

I very clearly recall when the NTD hit 26, which had been unthinkable at the time.

 

What a shocker for Taiwan exporters.

 

And, yes, it was clearly predicted months in advance, in the press.

But, nobody believed it until it happened.

 

If the same happens here, we will need to begin buying more stuff from Amazon USA.

 

only problem with Amazon is that starting January 1, all imports will be taxed

In second half off 2025,  USD tried re-bouncing few times and Failed. 

USD is sinking like a rock falling  

2 hours ago, flexomike said:

only problem with Amazon is that starting January 1, all imports will be taxed

 

Same with the import policy in Taiwan, at around the time that the NTD hit something like 26.5.

Long ago.

 

Meanwhile the EUR got like 30% more vietnam dong and USA 20% since a few years alone, while prices there are in general 30-40% cheaper on top... Sometimes it all really makes little sense knowing that most costs in TH or VN are virtually the same for business owners.

 

Have to say I was pretty shocked to see that I get like 30,000 VND compared to 20,000 VND per 1 euro today while I actually stopped going every 2-3 months since it went up that much, and it was super cheap at the 20K rate already lol. That's like negative inflation X5.

 

Almost worth it to even double rent and live there 6 months a year, specially if they did still make that tax move here. Rent/flights would be free. Surprises me in a way there is even still that much tourism left here, people must be unaware it comes down to paying up to 50% less.

On 12/24/2025 at 11:20 AM, smedly said:

"best performing" like it is some kind of regonal challenge they have won, seems more like the continue to shoot themselves in the foot, sitting on their hands won't improve things, this quite frankly sounds like manipulation, still can't figure out who benefits except those wanting to move money out of Thailand, I get the feeling they are hiding something - but what ?

It's hiding in plain sight. Criminal money laundering through the sale of gold. They like to call Thailand a gold trading hub, but really it's a money laundering hub and gold traders are up to their eyeballs in it. They are "clean" due to poor oversight. The government should not bother negotiating with them, they should drop the hammer! This activity is damaging all of Thailand. Lives are being ruined and the economy is suffering.

1 hour ago, Des1 said:

It's hiding in plain sight. Criminal money laundering through the sale of gold. They like to call Thailand a gold trading hub, but really it's a money laundering hub and gold traders are up to their eyeballs in it. They are "clean" due to poor oversight. The government should not bother negotiating with them, they should drop the hammer! This activity is damaging all of Thailand. Lives are being ruined and the economy is suffering.

Exactly correct - glad someone else here can see that fact.  There is a lot of 'real' trade in gold going on - it has been climbing in value for years.  But the big issue is that the BOT allows all gold trade to be in Baht, when other countries (like Singapore) enforce heavy taxation on gold traded in their currency over a certain amount - thereby forcing the trade to be mainly in USD and thus not increasing the SGD too high and thereby making their exports and tourism more expensive - both critical parts of the Singapore economy.  Are the Thai elite very smart and are taking advantage - YES.  But the issue is that they are also pushing their minions in Govt not to make any changes to the rules.  When this all finally comes crashing down - and it will - I think it will be worse than in the late 90s crash of the Baht - which was also caused by unending greed and corruption.  Until then I am not bringing in to Thailand any serious money - I got some money in last year at 25 per $AUS but now it is just above 20 per $AUD and looking likely to go lower.  There is an inevitable crash coming IMO. 

 

5 minutes ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

Exactly correct - glad someone else here can see that fact.  There is a lot of 'real' trade in gold going on - it has been climbing in value for years.  But the big issue is that the BOT allows all gold trade to be in Baht, when other countries (like Singapore) enforce heavy taxation on gold traded in their currency over a certain amount - thereby forcing the trade to be mainly in USD and thus not increasing the SGD too high and thereby making their exports and tourism more expensive - both critical parts of the Singapore economy.  Are the Thai elite very smart and are taking advantage - YES.  But the issue is that they are also pushing their minions in Govt not to make any changes to the rules.  When this all finally comes crashing down - and it will - I think it will be worse than in the late 90s crash of the Baht - which was also caused by unending greed and corruption.  Until then I am not bringing in to Thailand any serious money - I got some money in last year at 25 per $AUS but now it is just above 20 per $AUD and looking likely to go lower.  There is an inevitable crash coming IMO. 

 

You have added things I left out in my rant. Thanks!

If you can't beat em, join em. I  bought a bunch of the silver etf, SLV