Ousted Thai Leader Gambles On Return To World Stage

[Lite Beer]

Ousted Thai leader gambles on return to world stage Focus

By Kelly Macnamara

BANGKOK, August 21, 2011 (AFP) - With his sister barely in office, fugitive former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra has launched a high-stakes international charm offensive that analysts say threatens his allies' hold on power.

The one-time billionaire tycoon, toppled in a 2006 coup, has overshadowed the first fortnight of Yingluck Shinawatra's premiership with a planned trip to Japan that has raised questions about his influence over the government.

Thaksin, who lives abroad to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption, has angered the opposition with his scheduled August 22-28 visit that will include a tour of areas devastated by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Emboldened by his proxies' election win, Thaksin aims to send the message that he is the "de facto prime minister", said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a Thailand expert at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

But Pavin said the one-time tycoon is "moving too fast" and the "traditional elite and military will definitely strike back".

Thailand's generals and judges have a record of intervening in politics, particularly against Thaksin, who is loved by many poor Thais but seen by the Bangkok-based elite as authoritarian and a threat to the monarchy.

Two Thaksin parties have been dissolved by the courts in the past and there have been 18 actual or attempted coups since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

Thaksin's removal by royalist generals heralded five years of political crises both in the Thai parliament and on the streets, where his foes and supporters have held crippling rival protests.

This culminated in rallies by "Red Shirts" loyal to Thaksin last year, in which more than 90 people died in clashes between the army and demonstrators.

Thai political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak at Chulalongkorn University said Thaksin's rush back into the limelight is "provocative and not smart if he wants his sister to have a chance".

Serving a full four-year term in Thailand is the exception rather than the rule -- Thaksin is the only elected premier to have done so -- and Thitinan said "powerful adversaries" could "keep his party from running the country".

Legal pressures are already growing against the government of Yingluck, a political novice who is described by her brother as his "clone" and has raised the idea of an amnesty for convicted politicians.

Just days after the election, the Democrats launched a legal bid to have her Puea Thai party disbanded on the grounds that banned politicians such as Thaksin were involved in its campaign.

And the elite-backed opposition Democrat Party last week filed a complaint to police alleging Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul illegally assisted the fugitive Thaksin.

While Yingluck's government denied making a specific visa request for Thaksin, Tokyo said Thailand had asked it to allow entry to the former leader, making an exception to its normal entry rules concerning criminal convictions.

Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand.

The government also plans to amend the constitution drawn up by the post-coup junta in 2007, a move which Chambers said aims to "exonerate" Thaksin from previous charges, paving the way for his return to Thailand.

"If massive changes are made and Thaksin does return, such alterations will occur amidst rising anti-Thaksin demonstrations and fury within the ranks of the anti-Thaksin-led military," he said.

Overt efforts to help Thaksin could lead to pressure for the courts to investigate allegations of impropriety by the Yingluck government and possibly trigger its removal by the judiciary, Chambers added.

The previous Democrat-led government accused the fugitive of bankrolling the 2010 Red Shirt rallies and inciting unrest, and a Thai court last year approved an arrest warrant for him on terrorism charges.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-08-21

[bangkokrick]

He is obviously prepare to sacrifice his sister to save himself. What a guy!

[pedro01]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

[moe666]

I guess he isn't perfect, the expat .

[Tropicalevo]

He is obviously prepare to sacrifice his sister to save himself. What a guy!

Sadly this was always going to happen.

Edited August 21, 2011 by Tropicalevo

[jonclark]

He is obviously prepare to sacrifice his sister to save himself. What a guy!

Sadly this was always going to happen.

I'll be honest I don't think she really cares as judging from her performances in front of the press this week she doesn't have a handle on anything the various ministries say or do and its fairly clear they don't listen to her either. She gives me the impression of a man whose handed in his resignation and is just working out the week

[lungmi]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

Look at the link . Uni Heidelberg ist the best place in Germany for asian languages and politics.

http://www.uni-heidelberg.de/politikwissenschaften/personal/croissant/chambers_en.html

[Misterwhisper]

This man is amazing. There he constantly bellows about 'reconciliation' from his exile in Dubai and just doesn't realize that his incessant meddling is one of the main obstacles to achieve that. If only he could take a step back for once and show that he really means what he preaches. But he is too power-hungry, too self-absorbed and considers himself much too important and indispensable for Thailand's future. To be honest: Thailand will be better off without him and his constant intrigues and politics-playing.

Give it up, Thaksin! Your sister is now in power just as you've engineered it. Be satisfied and leave it at that and give her a chance to get to task without your relentless interfering!

[Farang0tang]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

Not sure if "putting their foot in their mouth" is the correct term you sought either.

Oops - may have opened up a can of beans!

[Nickymaster]

This man is amazing. There he constantly bellows about 'reconciliation' from his exile in Dubai and just doesn't realize that his incessant meddling is one of the main obstacles to achieve that. If only he could take a step back for once and show that he really means what he preaches. But he is too power-hungry, too self-absorbed and considers himself much too important and indispensable for Thailand's future. To be honest: Thailand will be better off without him and his constant intrigues and politics-playing.

Give it up, Thaksin! Your sister is now in power just as you've engineered it. Be satisfied and leave it at that and give her a chance to get to task without your relentless interfering!

You are so right.

[Deez]

He is obviously prepare to sacrifice his sister to save himself. What a guy!

Sadly this was always going to happen.

I'll be honest I don't think she really cares as judging from her performances in front of the press this week she doesn't have a handle on anything the various ministries say or do and its fairly clear they don't listen to her either. She gives me the impression of a man whose handed in his resignation and is just working out the week

Agreed. I think she would be more than willing to give up her job(one way or another)

[hammered]

He is rubbing it in.

[scorecard]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

You go for broke to criticize the article but your own comments are factually wrong, Payap University is not in Issan, It's in Chiang Mai city (Northern Thailand, as mentioned in the original piece). Further:

- Why do you say he put his foot in his mouth?

- Why do you say a blanket negative about Issan universities? Khon Kaen University has a fine track record, especially their engineering faculty.

[lovetotravel]

The sad thing is many poor people are going to get hurt from his antics. He doesn't seem to care about that. If he cared about the people, he would enjoy his retirement in Dubai, as a multi billionaire.

[rixalex]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

You go for broke to criticize the article but your own comments are factually wrong, Payap University is not in Issan, It's in Chiang Mai city (Northern Thailand, as mentioned in the original piece). Further:

- Why do you say he put his foot in his mouth?

- Why do you say a blanket negative about Issan universities? Khon Kaen University has a fine track record, especially their engineering faculty.

Hey there Paul.

[dru2]

Please note:

Payap University is in Chiang Mai.

Chiang Mai is not in Isaan.

[mca]

Please note:

Payap University is in Chiang Mai.

Chiang Mai is not in Isaan.

Oh yes it is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Si_Chiang_Mai_District

[Siripon]

This man is amazing. There he constantly bellows about 'reconciliation' from his exile in Dubai and just doesn't realize that his incessant meddling is one of the main obstacles to achieve that. If only he could take a step back for once and show that he really means what he preaches. But he is too power-hungry, too self-absorbed and considers himself much too important and indispensable for Thailand's future. To be honest: Thailand will be better off without him and his constant intrigues and politics-playing.

Give it up, Thaksin! Your sister is now in power just as you've engineered it. Be satisfied and leave it at that and give her a chance to get to task without your relentless interfering!

Your words above are why he can't leave it at that. He knows Yingluk's win was entirely due to his 'reputation' with working class people, so he can't bear to see her playing the role he desires so much.

' It should be me up there, I deserve to be in the spotlight, basking in praise and attention. But they ask me to keep quiet! It's too much, I tell you, my ego can't take it, I'm going to explode with envy!'

[virtualtraveller]

Thaksin's jekyll and hyde personality really amazes me, shortly after the election he was sounding shrewd and saying all the right things 'the country is more important than me, I don't need to come home in a hurry if it causes trouble', then he goes off and does this, with the reaction probably the reason why he called off his planned Cambodia visit, in other words he was testing the waters.

Actually more like 'pushing the envelope', Thaksin's take on all this is 'I'm the rightful ruler of this country whether you like it all not, throw the law book at me but the law is an ass and I've got the electorate agreeing with me, afterall they voted for ME'.

So, instead of being a bit patient and keeping his ego in check for the sake of stability to his rookie kid-sisters' govt, he prefers to up the stakes, ram it in the face of his opponents and goad them into further draconian action. In short, he's a 'winner takes all' , 'scorched earth' type of fighter, which means he'd rather drag the whole country down the road of confrontation than reconciliation and compromise.

[gregb]

Thaksin's jekyll and hyde personality really amazes me, shortly after the election he was sounding shrewd and saying all the right things 'the country is more important than me, I don't need to come home in a hurry if it causes trouble', then he goes off and does this, with the reaction probably the reason why he called off his planned Cambodia visit, in other words he was testing the waters.

Actually more like 'pushing the envelope', Thaksin's take on all this is 'I'm the rightful ruler of this country whether you like it all not, throw the law book at me but the law is an ass and I've got the electorate agreeing with me, afterall they voted for ME'.

So, instead of being a bit patient and keeping his ego in check for the sake of stability to his rookie kid-sisters' govt, he prefers to up the stakes, ram it in the face of his opponents and goad them into further draconian action. In short, he's a 'winner takes all' , 'scorched earth' type of fighter, which means he'd rather drag the whole country down the road of confrontation than reconciliation and compromise.

Thaksin is a demagogue and likely a sociopath. Too many people try and ascribe normal human morals and values to him. These are people who have never met him. Thaksin cares nothing for anyone but Thaksin. Why are people are surprised that he would put his sister in this position so that he could take advantage of the situation? That is what he does. If he has any respect for his sister, it is only because he believes she knows her place. The duty of Yingluck and everyone in the PT is to him, not to the country. If you don't believe this, you didn't get a place in the government.

Thaksin has never done anything that doesn't benefit himself and he won't start now. He will force the charter amendment process, and we will have more massive street protests and infrastructure closures by those that refuse to allow him to seize power. Nothing has changed. Everything is still about Thaksin. Until he is neutralized, the country can not go forward. Get prepared to relive 2006 all over again. Hopefully the courts can find some way to engineer continuous elections as opposed to the alternative which is more bloodshed.

[Thakkar]

Please note:

Payap University is in Chiang Mai.

Chiang Mai is not in Isaan.

Oh yes it is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Si_Chiang_Mai_District

Michele Bachmann, is that you? Nice Job!

[Thakkar]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

Not sure if "putting their foot in their mouth" is the correct term you sought either.

Oops - may have opened up a can of beans!

Pandora's closet?

[zzaa09]

I guess he isn't perfect, the expat .

Which can be the norm, as such applies to analysis regarding Thai affairs and society.

[looping]

Imagine the ego boost he's getting at the moment... Phoning the PM and giving her instructions to arrange a Japanese visa so he can visit on a business trip thinly disguised as a mission to help. LAUGHING IN THE FACE OF THE THAIS AS HE DOES SO. Democracy at it's finest!!!

[ratcatcher]

Thaksin's jekyll and hyde personality really amazes me, shortly after the election he was sounding shrewd and saying all the right things 'the country is more important than me, I don't need to come home in a hurry if it causes trouble', then he goes off and does this, with the reaction probably the reason why he called off his planned Cambodia visit, in other words he was testing the waters.

Actually more like 'pushing the envelope', Thaksin's take on all this is 'I'm the rightful ruler of this country whether you like it all not, throw the law book at me but the law is an ass and I've got the electorate agreeing with me, afterall they voted for ME'.

So, instead of being a bit patient and keeping his ego in check for the sake of stability to his rookie kid-sisters' govt, he prefers to up the stakes, ram it in the face of his opponents and goad them into further draconian action. In short, he's a 'winner takes all' , 'scorched earth' type of fighter, which means he'd rather drag the whole country down the road of confrontation than reconciliation and compromise.

Thaksin is a demagogue and likely a sociopath. Too many people try and ascribe normal human morals and values to him. These are people who have never met him. Thaksin cares nothing for anyone but Thaksin. Why are people are surprised that he would put his sister in this position so that he could take advantage of the situation? That is what he does. If he has any respect for his sister, it is only because he believes she knows her place. The duty of Yingluck and everyone in the PT is to him, not to the country. If you don't believe this, you didn't get a place in the government.

Thaksin has never done anything that doesn't benefit himself and he won't start now. He will force the charter amendment process, and we will have more massive street protests and infrastructure closures by those that refuse to allow him to seize power. Nothing has changed. Everything is still about Thaksin. Until he is neutralized, the country can not go forward. Get prepared to relive 2006 all over again. Hopefully the courts can find some way to engineer continuous elections as opposed to the alternative which is more bloodshed.

Two perfectly concise summations of the character I like to refer to as The Count of Montenegro.

A man bent on revenge and one-up-manship, which will in the end possibly be the downfall of his kid sister and hopefully his own.

.

Although the classic story has a rather sad ending, this version being played out by Thaksin is more likely to end in a tragedy.

Too bad there's no Chateau D'if resort to send him to. .

[Insight]

He is rubbing it in.

And thus still making absolutely no attempt whatsoever to reach out to the millions of Thais who still despise him, regardless of what the election figures may show. And this is somebody who hardly has the ethical upper hand, despite all the efforts his red shirts last year and the year before to antagonise the army into committing an atrocity.

I'll say it again - at this rate it's all going to end very badly indeed.

[letitbe]

Thaksin's jekyll and hyde personality really amazes me, shortly after the election he was sounding shrewd and saying all the right things 'the country is more important than me, I don't need to come home in a hurry if it causes trouble', then he goes off and does this, with the reaction probably the reason why he called off his planned Cambodia visit, in other words he was testing the waters.

Actually more like 'pushing the envelope', Thaksin's take on all this is 'I'm the rightful ruler of this country whether you like it all not, throw the law book at me but the law is an ass and I've got the electorate agreeing with me, afterall they voted for ME'.

So, instead of being a bit patient and keeping his ego in check for the sake of stability to his rookie kid-sisters' govt, he prefers to up the stakes, ram it in the face of his opponents and goad them into further draconian action. In short, he's a 'winner takes all' , 'scorched earth' type of fighter, which means he'd rather drag the whole country down the road of confrontation than reconciliation and compromise.

and your surprised ??? but at long last maybe others will see him for what he is. Like all despots hell cause his own downfall but not before he probably ruins thailand and a large number of people in the process. Im just hoping last few bits we've still had to leave here will remain intact after its all over and then we will bring back what we've taken out and hopefully Thailand can have some peace with this megalomaniac gone

[kraplung]

Who do you believe in the Thaksin Japan visa story....... the Japanese or Madam Yingluck?

It would seem the lies have started from day one.

[richard10365]

"Yingluck's apparent willingness to help her brother go to Japan has given the Democrats "cannon fodder" to attack the government, said Paul Chambers, senior research fellow at Payap University in northern Thailand."

Sigh....

Who are these people that give quotes?????

I hate to be an internet pedant but cannon fodder are on the recieving end of the cannon. You don't give someone cannon fodder to attack somebody else.

"Cannon fodder is an informal, derogatory term for military personnel who are regarded or treated as expendable in the face of enemy fire."

A senior research fellow at a University? I would expect such a person to be able to make a statement to the press without putting their foot in their mouth.

Still - what can you expect from an expat at an Isaan Univeristy?

Since you asked, you can read about Dr. Paul Chambers here. From your statements, his credibility seems a lot higher than yours.