How many Expats plans are on hold due to the property slow down?

By Dan Cheeseman

 

 

I get at least a dozen emails each week from fellow expats who have read an article or seen a vlog on Dan about Thailand and they either relate to it or have some questions; and yes I even get those that want to moan or tell me how bad my content is!

 

The subject of properties has become increasingly common. There has been a growing trend from expats who say they cannot rent or even sell their condo and so for the short term at least they have had to put any plans on hold. It’s a shame, but in life nothing is ever certain, and so we should expect some variables to come along and put a spanner in the works!

 

One retiree I knew in Hua Hin has just had to return home due to poor health and try as he might he was unable to sell on his condo before he left. He is back in Australia now and his condo sits empty in Hua Hin. This kind of thing is not uncommon.

 

I too have a condo in Pattaya that four years ago would have commanded 50k baht a month rental, nowadays I cannot even rent it for 30k baht. Issues like currency fluctuations from the Thai baht, Sterling to Aussie dollar are putting a strain on the Western property market in Thailand.

 

It is not only restricted to Thailand I should add. By all accounts the property market in the UK is somewhat depressed over uncertainty to Brexit.

 

I remember when the Spanish property bubble popped and it impacted thousands of Brits with villas there, but by all accounts this market has recovered somewhat and prices are increasing again following the crash over 10 years ago.

 

Full story: https://danaboutthailand.com/2019/11/20/how-many-expats-plans-are-on-hold-due-to-the-property-slow-down/

 

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9 minutes ago, rooster59 said:

One retiree I knew in Hua Hin has just had to return home due to poor health and try as he might he was unable to sell on his condo before he left.

...for what he thought it was worth.

 

there I fixed that sentence for you.

 

and it is hard to compete with 10,000 baht a month, three bed room, two bathroom house rentals in Hua Hin. 

One needs to look upstream to see where the problem lies...

 

Given that just about every long term visa seems to be built on sand can one be surprised foreigners are not in the buying mood?... 

3 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

...for what he thought it was worth.

 

there I fixed that sentence for you.

 

and it is hard to compete with 10,000 baht a month, three bed room, two bathroom house rentals in Hua Hin. 

I have been looking at properties for a while... most all have been priced at 2x what it would cost me to buy and build new... and obviously the owners bought some years ago and paid even less... but, they will not reduce prices below what is likely a 3-400% profit... because that's what other unsold properties are asking... 

 

truth is that land appreciates here and structures depreciate... and if you put a structure on land it all depreciates somewhat...

 

The couple of friends I know who have priced their properties at around replacement cost, have sold their homes... 

6 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

...for what he thought it was worth.

 

there I fixed that sentence for you.

 

and it is hard to compete with 10,000 baht a month, three bed room, two bathroom house rentals in Hua Hin. 

Agreed. Property prices are on the decline, a fact that seems to have been missed by many locals. Looking for a new house recently around Pattaya I found many landlords asking for rent they have no chance of getting, but because they got that 5 or 10 years ago, they think it is still viable. Even when their now older property has been empty for a year or longer, they still don't get that they have to settle for less. And when they can't rent, they try to sell for again unrealistic numbers.

There is an oversupply of property and you won't rent or sell unless you are ready to accept what the market will bear, however painful that price might be.

Wife has 7 rooms  for rent all full in BKK....is  it  getting harder to find a  customer.........yes, can it be done....yes...does it require  more  work ...yes.....outside of Bangkok probably much worse

Rooms  still sell at the "right price"..unfortunately many owners havent a  clue about what the right price is and are up to their ears in the bank  loan they stupidly  took  out. All Wifes  rooms are paid for  no  loans and this is where she has an advantage.

38 minutes ago, kenk24 said:

I have been looking at properties for a while... most all have been priced at 2x what it would cost me to buy and build new... and obviously the owners bought some years ago and paid even less... but, they will not reduce prices below what is likely a 3-400% profit... because that's what other unsold properties are asking... 

 

truth is that land appreciates here and structures depreciate... and if you put a structure on land it all depreciates somewhat...

 

The couple of friends I know who have priced their properties at around replacement cost, have sold their homes... 

 

LOL - do you know how long it actually takes to find then buy a piece of land, then clear it, find an architect, get planning permission, prep it (flatten/drainage), then actually build it, put the gardens in, design the interior, deal with all the BS at EVERY STEP, etc, etc..

 

thats where the two times price comes in! - 2 years of work!!!!

 

i've sold 2 properties this year, both at a tidy profit i might add, and while i agree houses depreciate over time, the trick to selling them is to bring them back to new.

 

do that and they sell.. for new prices

 

its a buyer's market so have to have a superior product to the lazy gits who can't even be bothered to jet wash their driveways before putting their houses on the market and wonder why no-one comes to view!

 

 

Before the internet hype money was made with Real Estate, the richest people were in Oil and/or Real Estate

Today they are still among the richest, just not on no. 1 spot or even within top 20

But they will always be there.... If you are not a Gates,Buffet, Bezos or Zuckerberg and have no brilliant plan

than go into real estate...

got to say there is a huge amount of inventory coming on to the market right now in Hua Hin i've never seen anything quite like it. a month ago we was considering buying a holiday let in the 5M baht range and could only find 2 houses off of the private villages (i don't like service charges) - 2 days ago i was browsing about and i swear is saw 10 of them and the prices are crashing fast. did some checking in the sub-5M, 5-10 and 10+ ranges and same thing there.

 

so is this panic selling over immigration changes or a bursting bubble?

 

one things for sure across all price ranges there is panic in the air, seen it before, samui 2009.

 

thai market is holding up though no problems there seems to be foreign real-estate correction

 

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

2 hours ago, rooster59 said:

 

I too have a condo in Pattaya that four years ago would have commanded 50k baht a month rental, nowadays I cannot even rent it for 30k baht

I work offshore and it was around 4 years ago the industry stalled. I reckon offshore workers had a huge impact on the Pattaya economy.

 

The property slow down should filter out the dodgy real estate agents. 

 

1 hour ago, GeorgeCross said:

so is this panic selling over immigration changes or a bursting bubble?

In some areas its both. In my area, you can rent a studio for the same price or less, compared to 10 years ago. And that is without taking inflation into account.

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

and it is hard to compete with 10,000 baht a month, three bed room, two bathroom house rentals in Hua Hin.

I like the sound of that, but I am only seeing 20,000 plus on the web.

2 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

so is this panic selling over immigration changes or a bursting bubble?

 

one things for sure across all price ranges there is panic in the air, seen it before, samui 2009.

 

thai market is holding up though no problems there seems to be foreign real-estate correction

Can't see a bubble, perhaps an excess of property coming onto the market for many a reason.

 

As for foreigners buying property, I would think not especially when some currencies have dropped a minimum of 20%, suffice to say if your looking at purchasing a property for 5m, it becomes 6m.

 

Coming from a property background of 25 years, I would NEVER purchase property in Thailand, especially when you do not get any permanent residency status and can only buy into villa's, condo's and the like which are 51% owned by Thai's, that's just my take, add to that there is no control over how much development can be done within a particular area within a particular year, oversupply does help in bringing prices down as new becomes hard to sell in a down turning market, and then they have competition with the 2nd hand market to worry about on top of exchange rates.

 

As for Hua Hin, I would have thought if one purchases at the right time, i.e. in mid 20 with the new airport being built or built, that might help property prices in the future as the baht comes back to earth, change of government and farangs starting to return, but who can see into that crystal ball, just my speculation of course, and still dicey when you cannot obtain permanent residency unless you meet a certain criteria, i.e. having worked and paid taxes, plus, plus, plus and the only allow so many per year, Vs retirement/marriage extensions.

 

I believe rent would be a better option, unless your prepared to off-set the rent per annum from the purchase price, year in year our given the above.

2 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

got to say there is a huge amount of inventory coming on to the market right now in Hua Hin i've never seen anything quite like it. a month ago we was considering buying a holiday let in the 5M baht range and could only find 2 houses off of the private villages (i don't like service charges) - 2 days ago i was browsing about and i swear is saw 10 of them and the prices are crashing fast. did some checking in the sub-5M, 5-10 and 10+ ranges and same thing there.

 

so is this panic selling over immigration changes or a bursting bubble?

 

one things for sure across all price ranges there is panic in the air, seen it before, samui 2009.

 

thai market is holding up though no problems there seems to be foreign real-estate correction

 

Watch the move The Big Short....an insight as to what's coming to Thailand soon.

I've been sort of half-looking at houses around Pattaya (wife wants, I don't).  Stupid prices and owners complaining that they can't sell.  Newsflash; ask for what it's worth today, not what you want for it and it'll sell.  Fast.

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

It is not only restricted to Thailand I should add. By all accounts the property market in the UK is somewhat depressed over uncertainty to Brexit.

I can buy a rundown farm in France for 10,000-15,000 Euros.

They can't give em away.

3 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

and it is hard to compete with 10,000 baht a month, three bed room, two bathroom house rentals in Hua Hin. 

I'm buying a 3 bed, 3 shower house (from new) in Chiang Mai for 10k/month (90% mortgage).

Pointless to risk your own money up front in Thailand.

 

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

One retiree I knew in Hua Hin has just had to return home due to poor health and try as he might he was unable to sell on his condo before he left.

He didn’t lower his price enough.  

 

3 hours ago, rooster59 said:

I too have a condo in Pattaya that four years ago would have commanded 50k baht a month rental, nowadays I cannot even rent it for 30k baht.

Try 20k baht.

 

The market has spoken.

3 hours ago, Chazar said:

All Wifes  rooms are paid

Financed by whom?

I wonder?

7 minutes ago, DefaultName said:

I've been sort of half-looking at houses around Pattaya (wife wants, I don't).  

Go with your gut feeling. 

My view is that properties on secure villages remain unsold because the deteriorating state of the house isn’t worth fixing unless you want to do some serious mods to the place and spend some real dosh. I don’t think that land prices on villages escalate in line with typical land trends. Maybe I’m wrong but it’s just what I’ve observed on our community.

condos, definitely in oversupply mode. I think in that sector prices are dropping.

I’m reminded of this video from my (US) housing bubble blogging days.

 

 

We own a house here in Pattaya on a gated estate ,one just sold for 2.5 million more than we paid for ours , so good investment ,its our home ,i will die here then my wife will live here .when i am gone ,as will our son  and his wife and kids when he has them . that or sell up. 

3 hours ago, GeorgeCross said:

 

LOL - do you know how long it actually takes to find then buy a piece of land, then clear it, find an architect, get planning permission, prep it (flatten/drainage), then actually build it, put the gardens in, design the interior, deal with all the BS at EVERY STEP, etc, etc..

 

thats where the two times price comes in! - 2 years of work!!!!

 

i've sold 2 properties this year, both at a tidy profit i might add, and while i agree houses depreciate over time, the trick to selling them is to bring them back to new.

 

do that and they sell.. for new prices

 

its a buyer's market so have to have a superior product to the lazy gits who can't even be bothered to jet wash their driveways before putting their houses on the market and wonder why no-one comes to view!

 

 

 

i command you for doing it in 2 years but it's likely 3-4 years in my experience, talking about proper western standard houses not some issan thing for 3 mio THB tho

 

Especially because of the monsoon season here, where you can literally not start building as your basement will be washed away.

 

Buy land, including lawyer, due diligence, payments, land office meetings etc: 3 months

Getting a good architect, have him planned everything: 6 months

Building permit without bribing people: 3 months

Finding a PROPER CONSTRUCTION COMPANY willing to build where you want, haggling their overpriced prices down: random amount of months

Then wait for the next dry season to actually start building.

Oh and if you build on new land you often have to add earth there and let it sack for half a year at least

Building a proper sized house with landscaping and all modern ammenities: At least 18 months....

 

 

And then you are in year 3 easily...

 

 

I bought a condo at cosy beach 4 yrs ago. I don't class it as investment, but I believe it will hold it's value, due to great sea views. 

If I ever had to leave Thailand, I'm not reliant on selling or renting it. I can still buy another home elsewhere.. 

I chose to buy in Thailand, rather than rent, because I have zero tolerance for crooked Thai landlords, also, I've spent many years, regularly moving house, due to buying and selling do_up houses. I like to have somewhere permanent... 

34 minutes ago, ThomasThBKK said:

 

i command you for doing it in 2 years but it's likely 3-4 years in my experience, talking about proper western standard houses not some issan thing for 3 mio THB tho

 

Especially because of the monsoon season here, where you can literally not start building as your basement will be washed away.

 

Buy land, including lawyer, due diligence, payments, land office meetings etc: 3 months

Getting a good architect, have him planned everything: 6 months

Building permit without bribing people: 3 months

Finding a PROPER CONSTRUCTION COMPANY willing to build where you want, haggling their overpriced prices down: random amount of months

Then wait for the next dry season to actually start building.

Oh and if you build on new land you often have to add earth there and let it sack for half a year at least

Building a proper sized house with landscaping and all modern ammenities: At least 18 months....

 

 

And then you are in year 3 easily...

 

 

 

hahahaha i actually wanted to say 3 years but trying to tell someone who has never built a house that it could take that long.. well may as well say santa is real 

 

they only get quicker to build if you:

 

already have the land and its settled

already have the plans, architects take forever

already have a builder AND he has time to work for you

 

but you know.. its only worth land plus build cost mmmkay!

 

 

 

49 minutes ago, bert bloggs said:

We own a house here in Pattaya on a gated estate ,one just sold for 2.5 million more than we paid for ours , so good investment ,its our home ,i will die here then my wife will live here .when i am gone ,as will our son  and his wife and kids when he has them . that or sell up. 

We are the same, 

Got a 3 bedroom house in a gated village, 

3 condo rentals, a gym and a yoga studio. 

They will all end up getting passed down in the family.

They are only worth something if you want to sell ????????

I'm only 36 so I'm in it for the long haul 

1 hour ago, DefaultName said:

I've been sort of half-looking at houses around Pattaya (wife wants, I don't). 

I don't understand how people can live here and not have a house. 

I bought a very nice house here in Thailand last year and put it in my son's name because he has Thai citizenship. I then shipped all my worldly possessions here and no longer have to pay $220.00 U.S. a month in storage fees. However, although I was originally planning on buying another place here as well, I have since decided against it because of the continually changing immigration requirements.