Are you really ready for two years of this?

[Jingthing]

I know I'm not.

 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-long-term-plan

 

Quote

 

This is how life under coronavirus will play out over the next year

It's likely that coronavirus will loom over us until we have an effective vaccine. We need to prepare ourselves for life to be really strange for a long, long time

 

 

I think it's obvious by now that the hopes and promises of this virus situation ending in a month or two are extremely unlikely. Not only in Thailand, but globally.

 

Even in the few nations that have had good success in suppressing it before it got out of hand or are in a recovery phase from a severe impact are not anywhere near back to normal and are ready to revert to the previous restrictive measures very quickly. 

 

Why? 

This is very infectious.

Yes doing nothing and trying the herd immunity things was an option but for the most part countries don't want to accept that level of mass death.

 

So instead these lockdowns and such simply SLOW things down as we wait for a vaccine. Likely at least 18 months away.

 

So the lockdowns and such are pretty likely to be OFF and ON for maybe two years.

 

Yes there is a good chance that with antibody tests there will be a new class of people with immunity certificates that will be able to avoid all the restrictions, assuming they will actually be immune, which we really don't know yet.

 

Expecting a miracle treatment is not realistic. Remember how long that took with HIV?

 

Expecting a vaccine any quicker than 18 months is not realistic either. Two years is more likely than earlier for it to actually be in mass usage.

 

However this turns out for the survivors the world at the end of this is not going to be the same as the world before it. 

 

Is Thailand really the best place to try to get through this for possibly as long as two years?

 

Those of us still here not seeking a repatriating flight have made that choice regardless.

[mstevens]

Yep, there is going to be a very long timeframe on this and when we do come out of it in 18 - 24 months from now, the world will be a very different place. Asset prices will have been hammered, unemployment high and probably a much smaller number of businesses operating than today.

 

Personally, I am happy I am not in Thailand at this time. If things get really bad there, I wouldn't want to be a foreigner there. But that's me, and I understand the arguments that some might prefer it there, especially if upcountry with Thai Mrs and family. But in a big city like Bangkok that is in lock down for 1 - 2 years? No, thanks!

[RichardColeman]

Personally - and yes we all know Chinese data is rubbish - until they have a vaccine, I think any predictions on timescale cant really be estimated until they see what a potential 2nd and 3rd wave is like

[Jingthing]

29 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Personally - and yes we all know Chinese data is rubbish - until they have a vaccine, I think any predictions on timescale cant really be estimated until they see what a potential 2nd and 3rd wave is like

Yes there are so many variables that are impossible to predict and of course multiple waves are not only possible but probably likely, as different parts of the world are on different timetables and it may turn out there is a seasonal factor as well. Plus … it could mutate in either a good or a bad way. The info I currently have is that what mutations that have occurred so far have not resulted in different levels of virulence.

[Dexlowe]

I'm in NZ right now - perhaps a good place to be to wait out this plague. But I'm separated from my daughter, and I miss her badly. Not being able to jump on a plane at any time and go up there is taking time to sink in. I miss my little home up there, and I miss my relaxed lifestyle and all the things I have become used to over the decades. For all its faults, Thailand was home for 30 years, and it's not easy to just suddenly push that aside. If this goes on for another couple of years, I might be a raving lunatic by the time I can go back.

[stravers]

I second too that I'm not in Asia now. When the hospitals inevitably crash, they will save their own except those that can pay private. Mama Noodles is already currency to Thais who didn't have a pot to <deleted> in to begin with. 

[gunderhill]

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

[Jingthing]

21 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

They  should  just  accept  the death rate and  carry  on,  instead  they'll  lose  more through the economic  crash.

Well that is not the choice that countries are making for the most part so maybe you want to move to Turkmenistan. 

[gunderhill]

Just now, Jingthing said:

Well that is not the choice that countries are making for the most part so maybe you want to move to Turkmenistan. 

Maybe  they need  to accept  the  inevitable.

[Jingthing]

Just now, gunderhill said:

Maybe  they need  to accept  the  inevitable.

I think the world I'm looking for is civilization. 

[gunderhill]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

I think the world I'm looking for is civilization. 

The  very civilisation that could easily end if they don't due to economic meltdown.

[ezzra]

The key for beating this serious threat to humanity is for everyone

to take this bad situation very seriously something that many of us don't by deluding themselves that the number of dead and infected are insignificant to the number of people in this world and that to them it will not happen, and until such time the penny will finally drop, that will be the day we will beat this virus...

[nausea]

Luckily, my own personal set up means I can ride it out pretty comfortably, the changes to my lifestyle have been fairly minimal so far (touch wood), like I can't go for my weekly swim, boo-hoo; the ban on international travel is a bitch though, I sincerely hope that isn't gonna be a long term thing. Must say, being stuck isolated in a bedsit somewhere must be pretty miserable. Yeah, I've made the decision to ride this out in Thailand, can't see much advantage in returning to the UK - see my previous sentence.

[cmarshall]

I think by the end of the year people are going to go back to work even if the pandemic is not over out of economic necessity.  The govt is not going to make everyone whole.

[Sambotte]

I am not. I wonder if people are so sheep they would accept this for... ever. 

 

To bet on a vaccine sound crazy to me. Not sure one will be ok, not sure it will work enough, and pretty sure like for Flu it will not work long term.

Treatment look as much uncertain.

 

Gouvernements, if i get it correctly, with medical experts, want to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed. Would be ugly.

But economics sick is not exactly a long term solution either.

And well i hope people are still majoritarely alive, and would not accept such a lockdown for ever.

 

So i would say 2 options :

- Let nature process. Ugly but relatively short, and we can live again.

- Fear-lockdown : what the point to "survive" like that ?... Not to mention it's not THE plague, but ONE pandemy like we know there will be. Not to mention all the others causes of deaths / sickness, but accepted "in hospitals only".

- A mix, most probable, to slow down, but again for years and repeat ? 

 

What really scares me with this virus thing, is not the virus.

[Sambotte]

Forget to mention the absolute MAIN POINT : massive tests (and find who has been in contact).

Sadly i hear a lot about confinement, very little about testing and strategy.

One move is primitive (hide and wait, in fear), one is smart (fight).

[Shoeless Joe]

Well I'm with Jingthing on this. It's likely going to be 2 years just to get the first wave of infections worked through globally and that's assuming that places like Russia and N Korea divulge what's really going on in their countries and not forgetting we also have the African continent to think about where reported cases are seemingly very low.

Governments around the world need to wake up to the fact that this is bigger than they are and that non-disclosure of details is a crime against humanity.

I've lived in Thailand for nearly ten years, I'm married to a lovely Thai woman and I accept I have responsibilities towards her and her equally lovely family. Returning to the UK (even if I could), is simply not an option for me. I live fairly comfortably here, but in the UK I'd be borderline broke even if I could find somewhere to rent. So, I'm going to wait it out here and see what happens.

Good luck to you all. Try to stay safe and well.

 

Regards,

 

Joe

[thedemon]

You mention HIV infection as an example and as you know that is not cured. Rather it has been relegated to a generally non-fatal (albeit chronic) disease.

 

Since waiting for a Covid-19 vaccine to be developed, produced and distributed is not a realistic option I think the best case scenario is the repurposing of existing drugs that are able to treat the severe lung conditions that sometimes result from infection thereby bring the death rate down to a (acceptable?) lower level.

 

A promising example might be Japan's success with the asthma drug Alvesco (Ciclesonide) but there are many others.

 

[henry2109]

When I compare the situations people are in in some other countries (mostly in Europe, but also US), I think we are well off in Thailand, and I did not want to return to my home country.

 

However, todays situation, namely a lockdown and curfew, can and will not go on for several months, for 3 reasons:

1) with the developments on the medical side (testing, drugs for treatment, finding out the effecitve measures against the spread), there should improvements

2) people would go crazy to be locked in, and more and more violate the rules

3) the economical breakdown would be unprecedented, and people affected by this would stand up against the rules

[balo]

Actually I think Thailand will have fewer restrictions after a while, at least if the numbers are not too high the end of this year.  The Thai culture comes first , with street stalls and all that.   

 

[Lacessit]

I'm not ready for alarmist claptrap. 6 months.

[baansgr]

1 hour ago, ezzra said:

The key for beating this serious threat to humanity is for everyone

to take this bad situation very seriously something that many of us don't by deluding themselves that the number of dead and infected are insignificant to the number of people in this world and that to them it will not happen, and until such time the penny will finally drop, that will be the day we will beat this virus...

Still people comparing this to seasonal flu and saying more die on the roads...its these idiots that go out mingling like nothing is happening that have made a bad situation worse. A real estate agent in Pattaya is in hospital with all her family, check her FB, was in the Land office, with customers a week ago. A restaurant doing take away in Bang Saray is doing selfies of herself with the customers, no distancing and no need for taking pictures...absolute idiots that are gonna spread this virus through stupidity.

[tifino]

I don't see any solution, as being a vaccine...

 - as that implies this all came about naturally.

 

 

more though, as an Antidote

 - a thing needed to dispel a man made toxin

[ChipButty]

I fear the government will not do enough and Thai people will take things into their own hands you cant live on nothing

[cornishcarlos]

I really hope it's not more than 2 or 3 months, otherwise the missus is gonna be pi ssed if I can't get home...

Wonder if they will start letting in spouses of Thais to be with their families ?? I could really do with a good feed to.....

[chessman]

The models are hard to create for this pandemic but most of them are saying that the virus will peak this month in most places. After that, there should also be cheaper and more reliable tests available almost everywhere and governments will slowly loosen restrictions with the knowledge that if there are further clusters of cases they will be better prepared to contact trace those people. 
 

could it last 2 years? Sure. 
 

but the scenario I laid out above is much more likely

 

[Sametboy2019]

I definitely think that international travel should stay banned for a year to minimise future waves of the virus.

Unless people do the 14 day quarantine.

[cornishcarlos]

5 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

I definitely think that international travel should stay banned for a year to minimise future waves of the virus.

Unless people do the 14 day quarantine.

 

I'd be happy to pay for testing, do 14 day quarantine on arrival and pay for another test on completion of quarantine...

There's no way I want to be stuck outside Thailand for a year !!!

[bkk6060]

19 minutes ago, Sametboy2019 said:

I definitely think that international travel should stay banned for a year to minimise future waves of the virus.

Unless people do the 14 day quarantine.

?

 

So, come here on a plane, go thru the airport, sneeze, cough, touch things, get in a taxi, go to a hotel, etc, etc. then quarantine.

 

You contradict yourself and what you say makes absolutely no sense.

[RoadWarrior371]

I plan to infect myself, become immune, and travel the world like some kinda SuperHero.  Corona-Man.  Booyah