If these data are correct, then why is the Prayut Government consideration a total lockdown for 2 weeks?

It’s amazing how we are in the middle of South East Asia and Thailand’s so far doing better than lots of other countries including in Europe like Italy for one. We’re pretty lucky considering everything and the fact that we are technically within driving range of where it originated. 

2 hours ago, Hockeybik said:

While I agree the numbers are no doubt higher, maybe even a lot higher, don't you think that we would hear about more up-country hospitals overflowing and bodies piling up at the local wats if it was like 100 times higher? The hospitals and clinics near us in the outskirts of Bangkok aren't bursting with patients. So, barring that kind of underground news - everyone has a cellphone nowadays, so it would be tough to hide - the only metric we have are the "official" numbers. Since the numbers are not rising exponentially...and in the last few days, actually going down a little maybe there is reason to believe things are getting better and hiding in our homes is working. How many more cases would it take for the difference in reported numbers and actual numbers to be so obvious that it could not remain hidden? While Thailand doesn't have the most free press on the planet, it ain't China either. Fire away but when you do, please have some sort of evidence that the numbers are so much higher than being reported.

Absolutely, but you are faced with bedroom experts here (formerly barroom experts but the bars are closed).

Just now, Allset said:

It’s amazing how we are in the middle of South East Asia and Thailand’s so far doing better than lots of other countries including in Europe like Italy for one. We’re pretty lucky considering everything and the fact that we are technically within driving range of where it originated. 

Yes it’s a miracle ????

2 minutes ago, JimHuaHin said:

If these data are correct, then why is the Prayut Government consideration a total lockdown for 2 weeks?

That Jim is the 64,000 dollar question.  So what is not being shared with the masses.  This is what worries me.

2 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Yes it’s a miracle ????

They only said 3 new deaths well Italy has had at least 6000 so far. 

3 hours ago, Guderian said:

Based on even the steady +/- 100 new cases per day figure, there wasn't much justification for the latest threats to ramp up the curfew and various other measures, if we get a few days at the 50 level then there'll be even less. I'm guessing the authorities are in headless chicken mode, as they are in a number of countries, and simply want to be seen to be doing something, anything. As somebody said recently in the UK government, they're basically damned whatever they do. If they turn the screws further on self-isolation then they'll be accused of going overboard if it works and numbers start to decline, while they'll also be accused of not doing enough if it doesn't work and numbers continue to increase. Who'd want to be a politician at the moment?

Certainly doesn't help in the UK when the Chief Medical Officer for Scotland's advice is to the mere minions of Scotland is not to move around, stay at home etc.... then swannees off to her second home 44 miles away each weekend totalling contravening her own advice....she certainly gives the Thai gov officials a run for their money, except they don't have to fall on their own sword after such stupidity...

1 minute ago, Allset said:

They only said 3 new deaths well Italy has had at least 6000 so far. 

It’s quite possible they had a few more pneumonia ones though. 
Maybe one or two. 

1 minute ago, eastendanto said:

Certainly doesn't help in the UK when the Chief Medical Officer for Scotland's advice is to the mere minions of Scotland is not to move around, stay at home etc.... then swannees off to her second home 44 miles away each weekend totalling contravening her own advice....she certainly gives the Thai gov officials a run for their money, except they don't have to fall on their own sword after such stupidity...

She’s resigned now, but you’re right. Do what I say.....

ANYONE know how many tests are being done everyday ? .... Asking for a friend

1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Could be.

Chiang Mai has about 40 cases.

 

Chiang Mai has 36 cases... http://covid19.ddc.moph.go.th/en

4 minutes ago, Millcx said:

ANYONE know how many tests are being done everyday ? .... Asking for a friend

Yes, Anutin would know. He can simply ask the NIH lab and the army lab. They are the ones doing the confirmations.

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-reference-laboratories-providing-confirmatory-testing-for-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a03a01e6_2

 

 

Haven't heard about him for days. 

 

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Makes sense. Avoid contact with possible covid infected people if it all possible. 

Yes I drove by... Wasn't about to pop in to check things out.. haha not even for free water in a sealed plastic cup. 

 

instead of thinking china lies all the time...and USA and England ar perfectly honest, factor this in.

 

China says they have it under control. businesses are opening. no problems except a second out break they got under control. do you believe that? i do for a good reason. every major country has large teams in China verifying this info. They have to. If china is telling the truth then do as the chinese. these people have been there for a long time. china keeps saying the same thing. we do have a concern. no journalist wants to report all is well. they want deaths, number gong up, disasters. one will eventually exaggerate with some fake news...right? so far no comments from them. trump discrimination against chinese has cost 12,000 USA lives. are you encouraging discrimination to cause deaths.    

11 minutes ago, JimHuaHin said:

If these data are correct, then why is the Prayut Government consideration a total lockdown for 2 weeks?

Maybe they are concerned that the mere banning of Songkran festivities will fall on deaf ears and are looking to possibly enhance lock down measures over that time period. All very well just saying that Thai NY has been cancelled until later in the year and expect everyone to adhere.

 

Would expect that a few would be looking to break ranks, as would likely be the case in the West if the 31Dec NY parties were to be banned.

1 hour ago, DrTuner said:

Yes, would not make much of a blip - yet.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

 

We are now heading to the "Lockdown" part of it. I do think the warm weather does play a role in reducing R0,  but all that does is to slow it down, not to stop it. Does flatten the curve, though.

Thanks for a very informative and constructive series of posts using reliable sources of information.

Let's have sweepstake on tomorrow's numbers!

 

I am going for 39 ????????????

I truly want to believe the figures as many of us do but with little transparency on testing in Thailand then doubts have to emerge. My main concern being that if Thailand was conducting adequate testing numbers then they would be shouting about it and publishing them, because they're not then you can only assume the testing is completely inadequate to reflect the true situation.

 

Both worldometers.org and ourworldindata.org are cited by 100's of peer reviewed papers and quoted in countless media articles from the BBC and other established news outlets. On that basis I personally will continue to use them as the most credible source currently available for the Thai testing numbers. Here's a quote on how they come to those numbers:

 

"The Thailand Department of Disease Control issues daily situation reports which detail the status of confirmed cases, deaths and people being assessed. They report figures as ‘persons under investigation’ (PUI). PUI is the sum of confirmed cases, negatively tested people the number of people pending test results. All three figures are reported individually from 3rd March onwards. We present figures excluding people pending test results". https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

 

So with those caveats here's the last two days of testing, I'll probably update this daily for my own information:

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, darksidedog said:

we can at least hope for some sense of normality to return, as opposed to things getting tighter.

As a hairdresser friend of mine keeps saying, shes been ordered closed while every other of the 15 shops in her parade are allowed open as normal, these shops are full of customers, open from morning to night with no restrictions. Customers come and go, no social distancing, no gel at the doors nothing.

While she sits at home wondering why she has to suffer while others still make money. Just to rub salt into the wound the landlord phoned her at the beginning of this month, just to let her know he'd be round to collect the shop rent as normal!

9 minutes ago, Trip Hop said:

Thanks for a very informative and constructive series of posts using reliable sources of information.

I do try to share what I've first put through my paranoia filter. I forgot to link to the original source of that graph, without Tomas Pueyo's commentary: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

What is the projected curve for Thailand looking like?

 

Presumably it will peak 21 days after Songkran now that most of the possibly infected Thais have returned from overseas.

9 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"The Thailand Department of Disease Control issues daily situation reports which detail the status of confirmed cases, deaths and people being assessed. They report figures as ‘persons under investigation’ (PUI). PUI is the sum of confirmed cases, negatively tested people the number of people pending test results. All three figures are reported individually from 3rd March onwards. We present figures excluding people pending test results". https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

PUI is "Persons Under Investigation", i.e. those that have matched the criteria here:

https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/guidelines/G_CPG_en.pdf

 

It's a long way from there to actual confirmation. MoPH stopped publishing the number of pending results and deleted their earlier numbers from existing reports after there was a suspicious drop of thousands from the pending test queue: 

 

 

I really hope that these numbers are accurate and even if they are not that a trend can be monitored.

 

Yesterday as I left to go on my bike to the Supermarket the Condo Security were trying to tell me that Thai TV was reporting a 24 hour Curfew from yesterday. I stood in front of them and googled it to find no mention whatsoever. They were clearly unhappy as I went out and kept saying "Curfew, Curfew".

 

Today we are told that the Regional Governors are being told to prepare for a 24-hour Curfew, whatever that actually means in reality. I suspect, like elsewhere the thumb screws are being tightened to make sure we all behave. I am OK with that. I am not OK with a total lock-down with a death rate of 50 (in their own words) of which only around 25 are from the general public.

20 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The source for those daily tests figures? Roser's ourworldindata shows no data for Thailand since 31. March.

22 minutes ago, ebean001 said:

instead of thinking china lies all the time...and USA and England ar perfectly honest, factor this in.

 

China says they have it under control. businesses are opening. no problems except a second out break they got under control. do you believe that? i do for a good reason. every major country has large teams in China verifying this info. They have to. If china is telling the truth then do as the chinese. these people have been there for a long time. china keeps saying the same thing. we do have a concern. no journalist wants to report all is well. they want deaths, number gong up, disasters. one will eventually exaggerate with some fake news...right? so far no comments from them. trump discrimination against chinese has cost 12,000 USA lives. are you encouraging discrimination to cause deaths.    

Sounds like you believe XI and the communists, more than western civilization and fair rule of laws, CCP gave the world the Wuhan virus, so only right they pay damages to the world, we know they won’t do it, just like they owe $650 billion in war bonds, that they never paid back after WW2, but then again you try telling the Uighurs, that their 2 million family members are not in concentration camps but re-education hostels, all honest gov. information by the Chinese, or maybe you’re going to say that 1000’s of urns from one mortuary in Wuhan, where there are 35 others were all cremations for common cold, China is a bag full of excrement lies, just look at the Han Chinese in charge here, Anutin, Watchman et all and slimey cartel of businesses all using racist propaganda against westerners 

4 hours ago, Guderian said:

Based on even the steady +/- 100 new cases per day figure, there wasn't much justification for the latest threats to ramp up the curfew and various other measures, if we get a few days at the 50 level then there'll be even less. I'm guessing the authorities are in headless chicken mode, as they are in a number of countries, and simply want to be seen to be doing something, anything. As somebody said recently in the UK government, they're basically damned whatever they do. If they turn the screws further on self-isolation then they'll be accused of going overboard if it works and numbers start to decline, while they'll also be accused of not doing enough if it doesn't work and numbers continue to increase. Who'd want to be a politician at the moment?

Politicians around the globe just have to ask the "TVF experts" who are specialists in every field.
One thing i learned during this COVID-19 period: There are much more stupid and selfish people on this planet than i ever thought.

1 hour ago, Estrada said:

Songkran was postponed indefinitely,  to stop the mass exodus over Songkran, so that will not happen.

 

So the Thai new year holidays are cancelled as well?When did that happen?I thought it was just organised Songkran events where cancelled.Interesting to see if the hols are not cancelled and how the Thai population react to being told they can't go home for the holidays to visit family.

Just now, 0815 said:

Politicians around the globe just have to ask the "TVF experts" who are specialists in every field.
One thing i learned during this COVID-19 period: There are much more stupid and selfish people on this planet than i ever thought.

Wow, you actually gave people credit before for not being selfish before this pandemic.  I am glad there was someone who did.  My 32 years in Law Enforcement, showed me that no one was above being stupid, even myself.

2 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

So the Thai new year holidays are cancelled as well?When did that happen?I thought it was just organised Songkran events where cancelled.Interesting to see if the hols are not cancelled and how the Thai population react to being told they can't go home for the holidays to visit family.

One question, where the heck have you been hiding for the past few weeks to not see that Songkran was canceled awhile back.  Of course people will still do what they want in this country so nothing amazes me anymore.  When I see someone doing something they should not be doing, and the laws are broken daily I just shake my head.

I would not be surprised to see a 24 hr curfew just over songkran