German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than we thought

[yuyiinthesky]

11 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

He also interviewed Neil Ferguson. Maybe he is trying to ascertain the truth.

And interestingly even Neil Ferguson is now claiming a death rate of just 1% or even less, way below his earlier predictions. He is getting useless even for scaremongers.

[vermin on arrival]

1 minute ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Neill Ferguson doesn't like to reveal his modelling science, but his modelling for foot and mouth was incorrect and his 500,000 deaths from covid-19 look a suspect model too.

Yes my point with Ferguson was that he interviewed people with different view points so he is not only interviewing people who may hold the position he believes and is not some conspiracy theorist. I don't agree with Ferguson's conclusion and am aware of his alarmist history.

 

I remember having a burger in Wales in 1995 during the Mad Cow scare.

[vermin on arrival]

1 minute ago, yuyiinthesky said:

And interestingly even Neil Ferguson is now claiming a death rate of just 1% or even less, way below his earlier predictions. He is getting useless even for scaremongers.

I will watch the interview with Ferguson. I believe he is saying it is .9% now, which would still be kind of scary.

[Tanoshi]

6 minutes ago, Puccini said:

An epidemiologist needs a big pool of "patient material" he can study to arrive at a meaningful conclusion. As it is at the moment, there are just not enough of us getting sick and dying because of the strict safety precautions that have been imposed.

You can volunteer if you want, but I'll abstain.

[yuyiinthesky]

6 minutes ago, Puccini said:

This German professor in the video speaks like a dedicated scientist, which he is. If there had been less restrictions there would be a lot more infected people and scientists would have a better opportunity to study how the infection spreads and how it leads to death in severe cases, he basically says and this is true.

 

An epidemiologist needs a big pool of "patient material" he can study to arrive at a meaningful conclusion. As it is at the moment, there are just not enough of us getting sick and dying because of the strict safety precautions that have been imposed.

I did not hear him saying that, not at all.

What I heard was that he said that it is not possible anymore to see which measure, which restriction did have which effect, if any, because they had been all applied at the same time. 

To know if a restriction / a change of a parameter has an effect you apply only one restriction / change only one parameter and then watch for 2 or 3 weeks to see if it has an effect.

[2 is 1]

Ok, biggest problem is! That Imo 80% all human don't have enough education to know nothing what is happening! They want they tv dinner and watch they normal soap opera from it! They can always criticise desitions of coverment! Im not talk Thailand now! They don't realise how many scenario coverment people have to think! And you can't tell them coz they too stupid to realice consequence's behind every desition! Always they want somebody else make desition than people in charge! Like some else have better crystal ball! You can be democrat, republican or what ever! But truth is nobody don't  want make this hard desition what coverment's all over world have to do now! Only Later can tell, but if can do better let all know! All want end this sht!

Edited May 5, 2020 by 2 is 1

[Logosone]

Well, what a refreshing change in seeing Hendrik Streeck actually looking at the evidence, going to badly affected areas and speaking to and examining the affected himself, as opposed to the alarmist Neil Ferguson sitting in his office making mathematical models devoid of reality.

 

And the best news of all:

 

Streeck's conclusions about lethality of the virus have just been confirmed by genetic research from Arizona. It's happened again, one of the key parts of this virus' genome sequence has gone missing in one strain, just like with SARS previously. This should mean that the virus will become even less lethal as it loses part of its ability to transmit.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288189/At-12-different-strains-coronavirus-circulating-UK-March.html

[vermin on arrival]

9 minutes ago, Tanoshi said:

You can volunteer if you want, but I'll abstain.

Oh c'mon be a sport ; )

[vermin on arrival]

2 minutes ago, Logosone said:

Well, what a refreshing change in seeing Hendrik Streeck actually looking at the evidence, going to badly affected areas and speaking to and examining the affected himself, as opposed to the alarmist Neil Ferguson sitting in his office making mathematical models devoid of reality.

 

And the best news of all:

 

Streeck's conclusions about lethality of the virus have just been confirmed by genetic research from Arizona. It's happened again, one of the key parts of this virus' genome sequence has gone missing in one strain, just like with SARS previously. This should mean that the virus will become even less lethal as it loses part of its ability to transmit.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288189/At-12-different-strains-coronavirus-circulating-UK-March.html

I'll have to read that tomorrow. Thanks

[timendres]

30 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

He also interviewed Neil Ferguson. Maybe he is trying to ascertain the truth.

Poor Neil. I feel bad for him. He just can't let go of it.

[vermin on arrival]

@timendres love the archer profile pic.

[Monomial]

47 minutes ago, Puccini said:

This German professor in the video speaks like a dedicated scientist, which he is. If there had been less restrictions there would be a lot more infected people and scientists would have a better opportunity to study how the infection spreads and how it leads to death in severe cases, he basically says and this is true.

 

An epidemiologist needs a big pool of "patient material" he can study to arrive at a meaningful conclusion. As it is at the moment, there are just not enough of us getting sick and dying because of the strict safety precautions that have been imposed.

 

There is more than enough data by looking at the homeless populations throughout the USA. They never practiced any kind of social distancing or strict safety precautions. The problem is that nobody wants to pay the money to do genuine science to test them.  Every time it has been done, such as the Boston homeless shelter, it has shown huge numbers of infections that were all asymptomatic. If those numbers were to be confirmed over and over across the globe it would become very hard to continue to justify all this silliness. 

 

Of course we've wrecked the global economy now. Governments and the WHO need time to work on spinning a new narrative where all of this was necessary. So expect it to continue for the forseeable future until they can think of a way to extricate themselves from the mess they created.

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Monomial

[mauGR1]

9 minutes ago, Logosone said:

This should mean that the virus will become even less lethal as it loses part of its ability to transmit.

Meanwhile, in the next thread, they talk about a new strain.

We get bombarded with conflicting news, part of the "divide and conquer" strategy, i guess.

[timendres]

12 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

I did not hear him saying that, not at all.

What I heard was that he said that it is not possible anymore to see which measure, which restriction did have which effect, if any, because they had been all applied at the same time. 

To know if a restriction / a change of a parameter has an effect you apply only one restriction / change only one parameter and then watch for 2 or 3 weeks to see if it has an effect.

The one thing Dr. Wittkowski said that really rang true: If the US had not locked down, we could have spent only a fraction of the $2T we spent on the unemployed and shuttered businesses, isolating and protecting the most vulnerable of the population, and gotten a much better result in terms of overall deaths. I think he is spot on in this assessment. Of course, that is in hindsight, which is 20/20. At the time of the lockdown, we did not have the numbers to make that, what now seems obvious, decision.

[dimitriv]

49 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

Are you a virologist?

 

No. I am smarter than that.

 

There are governments all over the world, making policies based on advice of a LOT of virologists.

 

A conspiracy channel finds some virologists with a different opinion and they say:  LOOK, we found 1 or 2 virologists with a different opinion, so the whole world is wrong!!!  Everybody is wrong, because we have 1 or 2 people here who say so!

 

TVF is full with sheep, talking about meanstream media bla bla bla.

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by dimitriv

[dimitriv]

49 minutes ago, Crazy Alex said:

Tell us more about these Facebook ads. How about some examples?

 

Here is the article...

-The study was also criticized for recruiting its volunteers on Facebook

-Then there are concerns about the Stanford study’s sample and statistical analysis.

-Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford

 

 

 

 

 

[dimitriv]

1 hour ago, JensenZ said:

You must be referring to the video of the 2 Californian doctors talking about this. The video is still easy to find, but YouTube took it off. Their estimates for covid-19 mortality in California was 0.03%... and for New York state, about 0.1%

 

 

Their estimates were wrong.  2 fake US scientists spreading nonsense ????

 

[Monomial]

20 minutes ago, timendres said:

The one thing Dr. Wittkowski said that really rang true: If the US had not locked down, we could have spent only a fraction of the $2T we spent on the unemployed and shuttered businesses, isolating and protecting the most vulnerable of the population, and gotten a much better result in terms of overall deaths. I think he is spot on in this assessment. Of course, that is in hindsight, which is 20/20. At the time of the lockdown, we did not have the numbers to make that, what now seems obvious, decision.

 

And yet the Swedish did. Why is that, I wonder?

[timendres]

2 minutes ago, Monomial said:

And yet the Swedish did. Why is that, I wonder?

Is that a rhetorical question? I do not know enough about Sweden to answer.

What i do know is that the US was locked in some horrible political nonsense, amplified by a deficient press, that resulted in a huge disservice to it's citizens.

[Crazy Alex]

18 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

Here is the article...

-The study was also criticized for recruiting its volunteers on Facebook

-Then there are concerns about the Stanford study’s sample and statistical analysis.

-Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the link. Interesting article. I don't know why recruiting off Facebook matters. Regardless of where one recruits, potential patients should be screened to see if they meet the parameters of the experiment.

[CNXexpat]

2 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Unlike Bill Gates, the worlds leading virus expert,

He never said that he is the world leading virus expert.

[timendres]

Just now, CNXexpat said:

2 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Unlike Bill Gates, the worlds leading virus expert,

He never said that he is the world leading virus expert.

Nope. He is just happy to act as though he is.

[Monomial]

17 minutes ago, timendres said:

Is that a rhetorical question? I do not know enough about Sweden to answer.

What i do know is that the US was locked in some horrible political nonsense, amplified by a deficient press, that resulted in a huge disservice to it's citizens.

 

My point is that the information was available. Many people were saying it. The US simply chose not to listen.

 

Sweden is really instructive. Ignore the "infection" rate. Those figures are totally unreliable. But mortality is more easily viewed. All dead people go through the morgue, and death from the virus is easily identified. Check out this curve:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105753/cumulative-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden/

 

Now the early part of that curve could be wrong because there may very well have been deaths before March 11, but the interesting part is the data over the last few weeks. It shows an asymptote around 3000 people, exactly what one would expect with a mostly immune population. And a death rate just about 0.03%.

 

Looking here:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

 

We can see 95% of the deaths were over the age of 60.

 

Unlike Covid-19 cases, this data doesn't lie. This is the real mortality rate of a country that didn't engage in lockdown silliness and simply adopted reasonable precautions. I know there is a full court press by the mainstream media right now to discredit this model by talking about "infections" and "cases", but those numbers can be manipulated. Deaths, on the other hand, are deaths. Tell me that the death rate isn't obviously levelling off. New infections through better testing are simply irrelevant. Sweden followed logic and science rather than the WHO experts.

 

The US could have done the same. They didn't. They had exactly the same information as Sweden, but they wanted this to happen. Why?

 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Monomial

[CNXexpat]

26 minutes ago, dimitriv said:

 

Here is the article...

-The study was also criticized for recruiting its volunteers on Facebook

-Then there are concerns about the Stanford study’s sample and statistical analysis.

-Both studies used an antibody test made by Premier Biotech company that has not been approved by the FDA and comes with an acknowledgment that it can record false positives.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/23/coronavirus-antibody-studies-california-stanford

 

 

 

 

 

There is so much wrong in the US. Watch this video. 

 

[vermin on arrival]

12 minutes ago, Monomial said:

 

My point is that the information was available. Many people were saying it. The US simply chose not to listen.

 

Sweden is really instructive. Ignore the "infection" rate. Those figures are totally unreliable. But mortality is more easily viewed. All dead people go through the morgue, and death from the virus is easily identified. Check out this curve:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105753/cumulative-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden/

 

Now the early part of that curve could be wrong because there may very well have been deaths before March 11, but the interesting part is the data over the last few weeks. It shows an asymptote around 3000 people, exactly what one would expect with a mostly immune population. And a death rate just about 0.03%.

 

Looking here:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

 

We can see 95% of the deaths were over the age of 60.

 

Unlike Covid-19 cases, this data doesn't lie. This is the real mortality rate of a country that didn't engage in lockdown silliness and simply adopted reasonable precautions. I know there is a full court press by the mainstream media right now to discredit this model by talking about "infections" and "cases", but those numbers can be manipulated. Deaths, on the other hand, are deaths. Tell me that the death rate isn't obviously levelling off. New infections through better testing are simply irrelevant. Sweden didn't followed logic and science rather than the WHO experts.

 

The US could have done the same. They didn't. They had exactly the same information as Sweden, but they wanted this to happen. Why?

 

I believe they had some unfortunate incidents in which nursing homes were not properly isolated which accounted for a large number of deaths in the elderly...and interesting stats.

Edited May 5, 2020 by vermin on arrival

[timendres]

6 minutes ago, Monomial said:

Unlike Covid-19 cases, this data doesn't lie. This is the real mortality rate of a country that didn't engage in lockdown silliness and simply adopted reasonable precautions. I know there is a full court press by the mainstream media right now to discredit this model by talking about "infections" and "cases", but those numbers can be manipulated. Deaths, on the other hand, are deaths. Tell me that the death rate isn't obviously levelling off. New infections through better testing are simply irrelevant. Sweden followed logic and science rather than the WHO experts.

"Deaths, on the other hand, are deaths" - exactly.

 

7 minutes ago, Monomial said:

The US could have done the same. They didn't. They had exactly the same information as Sweden, but they wanted this to happen. Why?

The answer lies in our currently dysfunctional political arena, failing press, and divided citizenry. When US citizens finally come back to the one thing we all can agree on - freedom - things will start to improve.

[Relocated]

4 hours ago, dimitriv said:

It's a conspiracy channel on youtube. 

 

 

More like scientific conspiracy against media cult.  I wonder which one will prevail. 

[tribalfusion001]

Japan was suppose to be the next big one a few weeks ago, 536 deaths and 15000 infections, also Malaysia has gone quiet, 108 deaths and 6000 infections.

 

If you look at the Arcgis tracker, some countries have stalled and others accelerated. I see very little research explaining why countries have fared better or worse, some test more, some test, varied climates. The UK and USA have fared worst and generally have more obese people. A British medic today said at the 5pm press conference that obesity was a "big" factor and people should consider their health and weight.

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[vermin on arrival]

1 minute ago, tribalfusion001 said:

Japan was suppose to be the next big one a few weeks ago, 536 deaths and 15000 infections, also Malaysia has gone quiet, 108 deaths and 6000 infections.

 

If you look at the Arcgis tracker, some countries have stalled and others accelerated. I see very little research explaining why countries have fared better or worse, some test more, some test, varied climates. The UK and USA have fared worst and generally have more obese people. A British medic today said at the 5pm press conference that obesity was a "big" factor and people should consider their health and weight.

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That's what I was thinking. Maybe just hitting the societies with people who are obese/less healthy(hypertension etc) harder, and the US is one the most obese unhealthy countries in the world.

[chessman]

5 minutes ago, vermin on arrival said:

That's what I was thinking. Maybe just hitting the societies with people who are obese/less healthy(hypertension etc) harder, and the US is one the most obese unhealthy countries in the world.

I thought this article was interesting. For every ‘rule’ about this disease there are exceptions that cannot be explained.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html