The logic of masking

[dingdongrb]

5 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Why is it so hard to admit that Thailand is Covid-free 

That will never be true until 100% of the population is tested and the test provided is true test, not some bogus knockoff.

 

You're pretty much saying that all drivers are sober just because nobody failed a sobriety test at one of the checkpoints in BKK....  555

[Trujillo]

"That will never be true until 100% of the population is tested and the test provided is true test, not some bogus knockoff."

 

No, again, understand this: The virus has a "life cycle." It does not reside active in the body (infectious) forever. You become infected, you get sick (with or without symptoms) and eventually you get better (or you die). Having been infected with the virus does not mean you are infectious for months or years or forever.

 

We have been 41 full days without a local case of covid. 

[Bill97]

19 minutes ago, Trujillo said:

 

We have been 41 full days without a local case of covid.

Please post some science regarding why you think this is so significant, like Thailand is virus free.

 

You previously suggested that 28 days was a magic number. Why not 23 or 29 or 329?

 

 

[dingdongrb]

5 hours ago, Trujillo said:

"That will never be true until 100% of the population is tested and the test provided is true test, not some bogus knockoff."

 

No, again, understand this: The virus has a "life cycle." It does not reside active in the body (infectious) forever. You become infected, you get sick (with or without symptoms) and eventually you get better (or you die). Having been infected with the virus does not mean you are infectious for months or years or forever.

 

We have been 41 full days without a local case of covid. 

I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free.

[Peter Denis]

26 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free.

So you suggest testing 100% of the population in order to reach a conclusion whether Thailand is covid-free?

Your Avatar-name and picture are already tell-tale of my opinion re that suggestion.

[dingdongrb]

1 hour ago, Peter Denis said:

So you suggest testing 100% of the population in order to reach a conclusion whether Thailand is covid-free?

Your Avatar-name and picture are already tell-tale of my opinion re that suggestion.

No I didn't say I advocate testing the entire population, did I? I was merely saying that in order to state that Thailand is 100% virus free it would require to test the entire population. So in other words it just plain idiotic to say there are no virus cases in Thailand. Now on the other hand it would be more correct to state there are currently no virus cases 'reported'. Hence the word, 'reported'.

 

So you are saying you like 'dingdongs'?  Hmmmmm, I thought as much with a name like Peter....  ????

[AgMech Cowboy]

3 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

Your Avatar-name and picture are already tell-tale of my opinion re that suggestion.

 

1 hour ago, dingdongrb said:

So you are saying you like 'dingdongs'?  Hmmmmm, I thought as much with a name like Peter....  ????

@Peter Denis @dingdongrb (Wow, there are a lot of Dingdong members in the member's list)

Totally off topic, but it's nice to see a bit of cheerful banter on here. Yall made me smile.

 

I agree with the original poster, Trujillo, that the mask are not really necessary, but as I mentioned in my earlier post, I think it's just good manners to wear the face mask when you go into the shopping centers, HomePro, Big C or Macro unless you get in there and the cashiers and customers are not wearing them. If you ride on the MRT or BTS. Be polite and wear one, it might prevent you from getting someone else's cold. ???? That goes for you, too @Trujillo Have a great day!!  

[Trujillo]

If you are hung up on 28 days, it's the 14 day quarantine period times 2. The 14-days in which if you do not show any signs of illness, you most likely have outlasted the the virus. Yes, there are rare cases where the virus does not manifest until late in that stage, but the entire world's medical basis is on 14 days. I didn't make that up myself. So we are now three 14-day cycles away from our last infection.

 

As for, "I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free," you clearly don't understand. This is the last time I will try to make it clear for you. 

 

You either have the virus, which is "active" in your body (infectious), or you have never acquired the virus, or you had the virus and now you are either better (most likely) and NOT infectious or deceased. The "active" virus does not stay in your system for (as of this posting) 43 days. It is medically impossible. 

 

Covid-19 Thailand Government Daily Report

 

You seem to be confusing having had the virus (thus you would test positive for antibodies for the virus -- NOT that you have the virus in your body) and actually having the virus in your system. Unless as I posted above, one of the four unusual incidences were to take place, we can presume that there are no local people in Thailand currently infected in the general population. 

 

(Note: I have used "active" virus here to help explain to this fellow; actually, that is a redundancy. The only "virus" as such that is inactive would be what makes up a vaccine. If you have a virus, it's active by definition.)

Edited July 7, 2020 by Trujillo

[dingdongrb]

4 hours ago, Trujillo said:

If you are hung up on 28 days, it's the 14 day quarantine period times 2. The 14-days in which if you do not show any signs of illness, you most likely have outlasted the the virus. Yes, there are rare cases where the virus does not manifest until late in that stage, but the entire world's medical basis is on 14 days. I didn't make that up myself. So we are now three 14-day cycles away from our last infection.

 

As for, "I understand that, but without testing 100% of the population it is total nonsense to say that Thailand is virus free," you clearly don't understand. This is the last time I will try to make it clear for you. 

 

You either have the virus, which is "active" in your body (infectious), or you have never acquired the virus, or you had the virus and now you are either better (most likely) and NOT infectious or deceased. The "active" virus does not stay in your system for (as of this posting) 43 days. It is medically impossible. 

 

Covid-19 Thailand Government Daily Report

 

You seem to be confusing having had the virus (thus you would test positive for antibodies for the virus -- NOT that you have the virus in your body) and actually having the virus in your system. Unless as I posted above, one of the four unusual incidences were to take place, we can presume that there are no local people in Thailand currently infected in the general population. 

 

(Note: I have used "active" virus here to help explain to this fellow; actually, that is a redundancy. The only "virus" as such that is inactive would be what makes up a vaccine. If you have a virus, it's active by definition.)

So then you're confident that there has been no illegal border crossings occurring and someone hasn't carried the virus into the country unknowingly?

 

"The "active" virus does not stay in your system for (as of this posting) 43 days. It is medically impossible."

 

You know this, because you're a medical expert and you're experience is on COVID-19?  Hmmmmmm......  He77, the entire world's medical experts can't tell you whether a mask is helpful or not so it's difficult for me to believe anything these days, especially something posted on a Thai forum.....  ????

[Peter Denis]

31 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

.. it's difficult for me to believe anything these days, especially something posted on a Thai forum.....  ????

But that doesn't seem to stop you posting your nonsense when reading well-argumented posts that challenge your opinions.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Peter Denis

[JimGant]

On 7/6/2020 at 3:25 PM, dingdongrb said:

No I didn't say I advocate testing the entire population, did I? I was merely saying that in order to state that Thailand is 100% virus free it would require to test the entire population. So in other words it just plain idiotic to say there are no virus cases in Thailand. Now on the other hand it would be more correct to state there are currently no virus cases 'reported'. Hence the word, 'reported'.

Bingo. This is just pure statistics, whereby absolute certainty requires sampling the entire population -- at a given time. However, following statistical sampling precepts can lead to a high probability of certainty; and the sample size here, plus its random nature, seems to allow this -- except for that bugaboo: false negatives (false positives apparently haven't shown up).

 

But, how to deal with the asymptomatic population that's never detected -- are they just passing on the infection to the next asymptomatic carrier, ad infinitum? Is this the herd immunity taking place, maybe? Or, are there no corvid 19 carriers in Chiang Mai, as this thread supposes...? Hmmmm.

 

I guess we'll just have to wait until the first local positive case shows up -- or not. Meanwhile, I'm thankful I'm in CM, not the States, and thus can walk around knowing I'm probably 98% safe from contracting corvid 19. I'll still wear the mask, at least when I see the Thais doing so -- thus not standing out as an ahole farang.

[JimGant]

32 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

But that doesn't seem to stop you posting your nonsense when reading well-argumented posts that challenge your opinions.

Not very well argumented, in my opinion. His arguments have seemed to be from the statistical side of matters, and it's nice to have scientific, not subjective, input on this subject.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

the testing is nonsense. my doctor in california sent in three unused tests and two came back positive. 

 

In this story a goat and a pawpaw tested positive. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-tanzania/president-queries-tanzania-coronavirus-kits-after-goat-test-idUSKBN22F0KF

[dingdongrb]

17 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

But that doesn't seem to stop you posting your nonsense when reading well-argumented posts that challenge your opinions.

Here, have another dingdong Peter.....

[bodga]

As I sat  outside  7-11 in the car waiting for the Wife to get some milkI watched a  Thai  man sneeze  horrendously 3-4  times, each time he  took down his  mask as not to  get it dirty.

My point is mask wearing in Thailand is  plain almost useless, Thais have NO  idea  about how to put  on and remove a mask and that you should  not be touching them at all, this is  all about "appearing" to do something when the reality is virtually nothing is being done.

The Thais  mask are up and down constantly it makes it virtually useless.

[cardinalblue]

Unless Thais are genetically different than all other races/nationalities, one of more infected people would access hospital care due to symptoms and then test positive for CV...

 

for 40 odd days, not one reported case....pretty much can deduct that the virus is not prevalent in this country at the moment...follow the evidence...

[Peter Denis]

11 hours ago, cardinalblue said:

Unless Thais are genetically different than all other races/nationalities, one of more infected people would access hospital care due to symptoms and then test positive for CV...

 

for 40 odd days, not one reported case....pretty much can deduct that the virus is not prevalent in this country at the moment...follow the evidence...

You are 100% correct.

But just wait for the nay-sayers that will argue

- that there are 30.000 covid-deaths in Thailand, successfully hidden by the thai government;

- that we can only be 100% sure that Thailand is covid-free, until every single person has been tested;

- that there can be illegal immigrants from neighboring countries spreading the Virus (irrespective of the fact that the figures of those neighboring countries are similar or lower than Thailand's);

- that medical personnel in Hospitals treating patients, wear masks - and what is good for the doctor must also be good for us;

- and various other nonsense like using the dreadful situation in USA as argument that we are in imminent danger in Thailand.

I did get my share of venom and personal attacks from the Scare-Mongering Crew on this and similar threads when questioning the need for mask-wearing in the present circumstances.  The sad thing is that they are immune to reason and logical arguments.

So now I do not go into any pointless discussions anymore, but only post an occasional sarcastic remark when the nonsense spouted is too blatant to ignore it.

[Dante99]

12 hours ago, cardinalblue said:

for 40 odd days, not one reported case....pretty much can deduct that the virus is not prevalent in this country at the moment...

not prevalent at the moment

 

so not virus free

 

but quite far from it if the best you can say is not prevelant

 

at the moment is an appropriate qualifier too

 

Thank you for your considered statement.  A refreshing change from the virus free gang.

[MJKT2014]

 

27 minutes ago, Peter Denis said:

But just wait for the nay-sayers that will argue

- that there are 30.000 covid-deaths in Thailand, successfully hidden by the thai government;

 

I've no idea if the Thai govt is faking the numbers or not. I do know from the world tracking web sites there are over 12 million cases and 550,000 deaths so far this week so not masking up anywhere in the world is the height of irresponsibility. Most Thais where I stay get it and mask up.

[dingdongrb]

1 hour ago, Dante99 said:

not prevalent at the moment

 

so not virus free

 

but quite far from it if the best you can say is not prevelant

 

at the moment is an appropriate qualifier too

 

Thank you for your considered statement.  A refreshing change from the virus free gang.

Exactly.... You seem to get it ????

[Peter Denis]

7 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

Exactly.... You seem to get it ????

Are you referring to the virus? ????

[JimGant]

2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

But just wait for the nay-sayers that will argue

- that we can only be 100% sure that Thailand is covid-free, until every single person has been tested;

Yes, we know your gut feeling has Thailand as covid-free. And, based on existing data, you've got a very high probabilty of being nearly right. But a high probability isn't the same as absolute certainty.

So, what might be the probability of being covid-free for Thailand? Why not look at the statistical modelling that NZ did on this subject (tho' mentioning statistics on this thread draws the confused button -- must be a liberal arts crowd...).

Anyway, if you have some penchant for statistics, you might be able to stumble thru the following:

https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/05/25/when-can-covid-19-be-declared-eliminated-from-nz-new-modelling-study/

So, based on the NZ model, is the probability 99% that Thailand is covid-free? And if so, why won't the Brits allow Thais into their country? Hmmmm.

But, the probability, whatever it is, is certainly high enough to walk the streets in CM without worry of getting infected; it might feel like 100% but the modelling says otherwise.

 

[Peter Denis]

43 minutes ago, JimGant said:

Yes, we know your gut feeling has Thailand as covid-free. And, based on existing data, you've got a very high probabilty of being nearly right. But a high probability isn't the same as absolute certainty.

So, what might be the probability of being covid-free for Thailand? Why not look at the statistical modelling that NZ did on this subject (tho' mentioning statistics on this thread draws the confused button -- must be a liberal arts crowd...).

Anyway, if you have some penchant for statistics, you might be able to stumble thru the following:

https://blogs.otago.ac.nz/pubhealthexpert/2020/05/25/when-can-covid-19-be-declared-eliminated-from-nz-new-modelling-study/

So, based on the NZ model, is the probability 99% that Thailand is covid-free? And if so, why won't the Brits allow Thais into their country? Hmmmm.

But, the probability, whatever it is, is certainly high enough to walk the streets in CM without worry of getting infected; it might feel like 100% but the modelling says otherwise.

 

Hi Jim,

I have been teaching courses in statistics in the context of quality management for years.

So am well aware that stating with 'absolute 100 % certainty' there is not one single case of covid in Thailand's 70 million population, is simply not possible.

And there is also no need for that impossible 100% certainty, because with no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days, for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

The reported figures of covid-cases and covid-deaths are so low, that even with serious under-reporting that practical conclusion 'covid-free' would still stand.

[JimGant]

2 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

And there is also no need for that impossible 100% certainty, because with no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days, for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

Agree. As the NZ models show, going covid-free for 40 some days gives a near certain probability, which is good enough for the working man. I was just being ornery 'cause dingdong got dinged when he pointed out that you can't be 100% certain. Cheers.

[dingdongrb]

5 hours ago, JimGant said:

I was just being ornery 'cause dingdong got dinged when he pointed out that you can't be 100% certain. 

If you're referring to me, it's dingdongrb, the dingdong is for Peter.

 

Seems that now many more are agreeing, Thailand has not proven to be 100% virus free, thanks for confirming that.

[Peter Denis]

9 hours ago, dingdongrb said:

If you're referring to me, it's dingdongrb, the dingdong is for Peter.

 

Seems that now many more are agreeing, Thailand has not proven to be 100% virus free, thanks for confirming that.

As mentioned higher there is NO NEED for that impossible 100% virus free certainty.

With no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days (even if there would be considerable under-reporting a possibility which I do not deny), for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

Dingdong greetings from Peter.

[bkksteve123]

Even if Thailand is free of covid-19, which may very well be the case, the fact is that they plan on opening borders soon or at least eventually.

 

The people allowed into Thailand initially will be from countries that probably have some cases, but no major outbreaks. This means that there is an added risk of spread in Thailand when the borders open, and we can no longer assume it's 100% covid-19 free.

 

This in turn means that everyone will have to wear a mask again, do temperature checks at stores, and hand disinfection everywhere. I think that the government is reluctant to relax on these "measures" now, because they would have to revert back to them as soon as they open the borders. That is 100% certain.

 

They prefer to keep them in place so that people get "used to it", for now, instead of letting us bring down our guard and then have to revert back to them again in a month or two.

Edited July 10, 2020 by bkksteve123

[Peter Denis]

34 minutes ago, bkksteve123 said:

Even if Thailand is free of covid-19, which may very well be the case, the fact is that they plan on opening borders soon or at least eventually.

 

The people allowed into Thailand initially will be from countries that probably have some cases, but no major outbreaks. This means that there is an added risk of spread in Thailand when the borders open, and we can no longer assume it's 100% covid-19 free.

 

This in turn means that everyone will have to wear a mask again, do temperature checks at stores, and hand disinfection everywhere. I think that the government is reluctant to relax on these "measures" now, because they would have to revert back to them as soon as they open the borders. That is 100% certain.

 

They prefer to keep them in place so that people get "used to it", for now, instead of letting us bring down our guard and then have to revert back to them again in a month or two.

Thanks, and very fair point you are making there.

I just posted in another thread some additional thoughts on the present covid-situation and my conclusion that for all practical purposes Thailand is covid-free still stands.

But agree that your point re relaxing measures should take into consideration the intention to re-open borders to Western countries that are not yet covid-free. 

https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1171435-thailand-is-red-lighted-in-uk-for-quarantine-purposes-alongside-brazil-china-and-us-inexplicable-move/?do=findComment&comment=15600590

 

[dingdongrb]

4 hours ago, Peter Denis said:

With no reported domestic cases in now 45 consecutive days (even if there would be considerable under-reporting a possibility which I do not deny), for all practical purposes it is safe to say that Thailand is covid-free.

 

Hmmmmmm...and here I thought you were a statistical fact chasing guru. Better lay off all those dingdongs or the white creamy sauce will make your belly fat.....  ????

 

[Peter Denis]

35 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

Hmmmmmm...and here I thought you were a statistical fact chasing guru.

 

I wonder why you posted these figures.

Yes, 5 new - imported - cases > Regarding today’s COVID-19 situation in Thailand, five new COVID-19 cases were confirmed. Four confirmed cases were those who returned from the United Arab Emirates and the other confirmed case returned from Egypt and they were all under state quarantine

Source: https://ddc.moph.go.th/viralpneumonia/eng/file/news/news_no165_090763.pdf

So NO reported domestic cases in 45 consecutive days...