Too-tight virus policy is strangling Thai economy, experts warn

[webfact]

Too-tight virus policy is strangling economy, experts warn 

By The Nation

 

File photo

 

Thailand should overcome concern of a second wave of Covid-19 and instead relax restrictions on foreign investors and tourists in order to shore up its falling economy, say a prominent investor and leading economist.

 

“We should not worry too much about the threat of a second wave of infections, since the first wave of Covid-19 is generating far fewer cases compared with other countries,” prominent local investor Niwes Hemvachiravarakorn said on Thursday.

 

Thailand has implemented tight safety measures to combat the virus, but the Covid-19 issue has two dimensions – disease control and economic activities, he said.

 

Thailand may need to accept a low level of cases and develop a system to handle this, he said, referring to the absence of local infections for more than 50 days and only a handful of daily imported cases.

 

He suggested Thailand’s hot weather may be helping to keep the infection rate low, while Thais know now how to protect themselves as almost everyone wears a face mask in public.

 

Niwes warned that fear of a second-wave contagion was discouraging people from resuming business activities, resulting in a slower economic recovery. In Vietnam, public life is almost back to normal, with even large gatherings for sports events now permitted, he added.

 

Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), is also pushing for resumption of more economic activities. 

 

Thailand should learn how to live with a few daily Covid cases, because policies aimed at eradicating the virus completely were having a high economic cost, he said on Facebook. 

 

Income from foreign investment and tourism represents about 20 per cent of Thailand’s annual GDP, the economist noted. The government should focus on the “trace, test and isolate (TTI)” policy so that foreigners can be gradually welcomed back to the country, he added.

 

“Initially, we could limit foreign arrivals as per the capacity of the healthcare system to handle new cases of perhaps 20-30 a day. We could open up to more visitors as the TTI capacity was upgraded,” he suggested.

 

The government has maintained the state of emergency, arguing that it is needed to deal with a possible second-wave contagion. However, critics say the strict measures are hurting small businesses and low-income groups, while pro-democracy groups accuse the government of using the emergency to suppress political opposition.

 

Meanwhile, foreign tourists will not be allowed back into the country until September, according to the government’s Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30391449

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-07-17

 

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[Kadilo]

Here we go. The tide is starting to turn. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by Kadilo

[CLS]

Only the urge to make money will bring them to reason.
But Thais have been brainwashed for 4 months and the evil foreigner was made a scapegoat for their misery. What will it take to reverse this process?

[ezzra]

Until and when a vaccine will be found there are no other safe ways to contain the virus and stam the pandemic, if there was, every other country in the world would have done it already... so do what many others governments did, pay and support people and business to sit home... 

[Destiny1990]

Bit late now to say sorry guys but we have overreacted..

 

[ukrules]

Isn't it a different much more contagious strain that spread throughout Europe, the US and most of South America right now compared to whatever was circulating in Thailand late 2019 / early 2020?

 

I would not expect the same results the second time around, especially as we're told Thailand has had very few infections - this means almost the entire population is vulnerable to the disease and we now know it spreads much quicker these days.

 

I don't believe a word of what was said about the 'first ripple', it wasn't a wave.

 

How would a second 3 to 6 month shutdown affect the economy? That's the outcome if they're not correct.

 

If they let it in now it will be the direct responsibility of those who change the rules.

 

Edited July 17, 2020 by ukrules

[mtls2005]

You are NEVER, EVER going to get 38 million tourists back. Give it up.

 

Breakeven is probably 30 million tourists. Anything less than that you'll lose money.

 

 

 

 

[american2]

If the country wants to gamble...If tourists bring the virus back   how many more infections will they produce.

[AhFarangJa]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Thais know now how to protect themselves as almost everyone wears a face mask in public.

Certainly not the case here in Hua Hin. Last night at least 90% of Thais were walking along without masks, only putting them on when they had to enter any premises. As for social distancing, lots of local restaurants with eight round a table all eating from the same four dishes on the table. I think everyone is getting tired of the rules and restrictions. 

[uffe123]

when you have the military running the show, and have no idea what they are doing what do you expect. 

[ThailandRyan]

3 hours ago, Kadilo said:

Here we go. The tide is starting to turn. 

Yes, its flowing outwards for those wanting in, while the economy and a new economic team will make promises at trying to stem the flow of outward capital. The Baht is shrinking slowly from its lofty level.

[hotandsticky]

2 minutes ago, uffe123 said:

when you have the military running the show, and have no idea what they are doing what do you expect. 

 

 

Compared to the performance of other countries there seems to be more consistency and decisiveness under the 'military'.

 

 

Perhaps a coup in the UK would have resulted in less than 45,000 deaths.

 

 

(I certainly couldn't envisage Prayuth allowing Shamima Begum back in)

[rupert the bear]

this  economy is doomed  if it carries on much longer,its tourism andmanufacturing ,millions of jobs will go forever and thousands of small and mid size businesses with them.even some large ones are moving on or closing down,this economy is the  most open to the fall out in the region.people will never get their jobs back or new ones.ask around,even the ones that will reopen will take fewer staff in many cases.it puts millions on the scrape heap with no future and the govt will do nothing for them.go home and scratch about in the earth is their solution.the other options to open up ,do it regionally ,theres some countries with low rates vietnam,hk,taiwan cambodia,s korea, malaysia,singapore[its construction crews only]oz nz and then later EU countries,its only way out.i feel theres many cases here a resevoir .they wont test so they wont find it ,chinese were here in massive nos till way past they should have been the govt wouldnt push them out come what may,then they sent all the people home quickly the bus stations were packed,ihear of cases in the villages and deaths that are written up as pneumonis,those deaths are way higher than previous yrs.face and lies ,its the same thing so.....trace and trak and get a move on or this place will be picked dry when i t does open ,by whom yep Xis crew

[casey1]

2 hours ago, CLS said:

Only the urge to make money will bring them to reason.
But Thais have been brainwashed for 4 months and the evil foreigner was made a scapegoat for their misery. What will it take to reverse this process?

And the west hasn't been brain washed and controlled???? take a good look at the hyper bs that emanates as fact in some of those countries and how their populations have believed it hook line and sinker.... do not confuse evil foreigner bringing covid with people arriving ... most cases arriving were thai returning....

 

 

[DoctorG]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

“trace, test and isolate (TTI)” policy

I prefer the Trace, Isolate, and Test policy.

[Trillian]

31 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

You are NEVER, EVER going to get 38 million tourists back. Give it up.

 

Breakeven is probably 30 million tourists. Anything less than that you'll lose money.

 

 

 

 

What do you mean "break even", breakeven against what? Are you trying to say that if Thailand receives less than 30 million tourists per year the country loses money, if so that's nonsense.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Trillian

[casey1]

2 minutes ago, rupert the bear said:

this  economy is doomed  if it carries on much longer,its tourism andmanufacturing ,millions of jobs will go forever and thousands of small and mid size businesses with them.even some large ones are moving on or closing down,this economy is the  most open to the fall out in the region.people will never get their jobs back or new ones.ask around,even the ones that will reopen will take fewer staff in many cases.it puts millions on the scrape heap with no future and the govt will do nothing for them.go home and scratch about in the earth is their solution.the other options to open up ,do it regionally ,theres some countries with low rates vietnam,hk,taiwan cambodia,s korea, malaysia,singapore[its construction crews only]oz nz and then later EU countries,its only way out.i feel theres many cases here a resevoir .they wont test so they wont find it ,chinese were here in massive nos till way past they should have been the govt wouldnt push them out come what may,then they sent all the people home quickly the bus stations were packed,ihear of cases in the villages and deaths that are written up as pneumonis,those deaths are way higher than previous yrs.face and lies ,its the same thing so.....trace and trak and get a move on or this place will be picked dry when i t does open ,by whom yep Xis crew

and you not biased are you.... my uncle in uk died, late 80's or early 90's in terms of age... they said he died of covid officially.... but you know... he had multiple serious health issues prior to covid and a good severe bout of the flu could have knocked him off his perch (wait isn't that a what Covid is a subset of)... or a good fall he was doddery....... or one of his existing health issues.... me myself I would say he died of old age.....but that isn't popular... doesn't generate funding for the hospital and this is well known problem of misusing data to obtain better outcomes.. if he was in NZ they would have preferred he died 4 times each time a different reason because the health systems in NZ are funded based on reactive responses to perceived or popular causes.... ie smoking, diabetes, obesity and now covid.....

Many plavces in th world have had their core business fall over and fail.... there is short term pain.... followed by growth in new ways.....excpet maybe in uk where they have seemed to destroy themselves in every way possible over the past 75years... avaiation is obvious one car manufacturing is another.... common denominator seems to be govt interference....

[rtco]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

since the first wave of Covid-19 is generating far fewer cases compared with other countries,

As the official figures state ... mmmmmmm

[gerrytraveller]

I know i will be shot down but by my calculation when you take into account the incubation period etc.. etc and the fact we have had no local virus infections for 5o days  there should not be any virus hanging around locally. 

The only real danger as i see it  is the 'imported' infections.

..and the detection of those people carrying the virus into the country is a real farce..

So much yelling and screaming and carrying on about Rayong even the Napolean giving an apology. What for? To show of to the world. ??

Why dont they do something about the hundreds of people crossing the borders illegally every day! All potential virus carriers.. and what is done. Nothing. In fact that part of the illegal trade is flourising with Napoleans underlings cashing in ievery day

3 Pagoda pass.. cost for crossing = 6000bht.  I.e. 3000 for the guide 3000 for the army..

Maesai. A little cheaper only 4000bht.2000the guide 2 000bht army.

P.s. and for the arm chair warrior who calls out  ...where are the facts..

Straight from the horses mouth.. 

From the Burmese neighbour who could ill afford the 6 000bht but had no choice...

 

 

[sezze]

Forget even half break even . This is not about break even , this is about not letting the tourism industry die completely . Now ,the situation in the world isn't good at all , most countries in Europe now rising nrs again , but being honest , keeping everything shut down is a certain death for many business , even for healthy ones . And what makes it even worse is the 0 forecast . If you know , ok , in 2 months its getting a lot better , well people and business can brace for that period , but there is no end in sight . Forget about getting many people anyway , since most people aren't going crazy about long distance travel with all risks around , but it can keep the healthiest business alive . Sooner or later we have to find ways to live with the virus , because there isn't a vaccin yet and might never be . Many countries have the same problems , especially the tourist countries , it is a huge issue , and nobody got the right answer . This is the time where big politicians rise above normal people ... and so far , some have failed miserably , others have just passed the exam , but i've not seen a +6/10 on the scorecard yet worldwide .

[Yinn]

Most Thai people not want foreigner come thailand now. 

Especilally foreigner from countrys refuse mask, selfish. 

Up to us. 

 

Be stupid allow that. 

Money not important when you dead. 

 

Control covid= Welcome to Thailand. 

 

Eg Trump think “open” before control be good for economy. 

He wrong. Control covid THEN open economy. 

 

I not want foreigner come thailand now. Most people same. 

Sorry.

Up to us. 

 

Best thing can can happen for Thai economy is= other country’s control there covid. 

 

Situation not improve. It unimprove now. 

No thankyou. 

 

 

 

 

[brucegoniners]

As long as people stay in quarantine for 14 days after arriving here I'm fine with that. But tourists aren't going to be able to do that. Most don't even get 2 week vacations.

 

It's a sad situation, but it would be sadder if Thailand was hit hard by the virus again and had to shut everything down. At least the local economy is open, if not for tourists.

 

I also think a tourist bubble should be strongly considered. Have an area that only tourists can go and that includes hospitality workers who serve them. Of course once someone makes a mistake all hell could break loose.

[nobodysfriend]

There is only one solution .

People will need to go on with their business , they need income ... if not = social unrest in the longer term ...

People will need to realize that they WILL become infected by Covid sooner or later , if they do not protect themselves ( and others ) adequately . Minimize personal contact , wear a mask , do not come too close to others especially when talking to somebody etc ...

People who deliberately ignore all safety precautions ( Covid parties , mass gatherings without protections ) should pay heavy fines .

Keep the economy going but with the less possible risk for infections .

[Skallywag]

20 minutes ago, sezze said:

Many countries have the same problems , especially the tourist countries , it is a huge issue , and nobody got the right answer . This is the time where big politicians rise above normal people

Nobody has the right answer, because nobody has ever had to deal with a global pandemic before.  Looking to a politician for answers is stupid.  Science and infectious disease experts are who we all need to listen to.  Politicians always have hidden agendas and live in a secluded world unlike the population they govern.

[Cake Monster]

The headline on this article reads ~ Experts ~ - plural

It should read ~Expert ~- singular, with a friend. Both of which probably have financial interests at Heart over the health and Wellbeing of the Nation.

[mtls2005]

37 minutes ago, Trillian said:

What do you mean "break even", breakeven against what? Are you trying to say that if Thailand receives less than 30 million tourists per year the country loses money, if so that's nonsense.

 

The Thai tourism model is based on high volume/low margin.

 

In order to acommodate tens of millions of tourists there will be new, additional costs.

 

This will eat into the margin, unless you pass those costs onto the "tourist".

 

Plus no one really wants to come here, or go anywhere.

 

That said, my post was poorly worded.

 

 

[prakhonchai nick]

The Thai people were good at mask wearing, but the "novelty" sems to have worn thin these days and many people outside no longer wear masks.  You need them to enter supermarkets and the like, but once inside, many discard them, as do the employees.

 

No need to go out and check..just watch the TV news. Full of groups of people without masks, not helped much by all the government employees who don't wear them. Don't do as I do, Do as I say!

Edited July 17, 2020 by prakhonchai nick

[Henryford]

I am surprised many companies aren't taking this opportunity to move out of Thailand to Vietnam/Cambodia/India etc.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Henryford

[chaihot]

4 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Plus no one really wants to come here, or go anywhere.

Agreed.  Go there for what?

I'm still in no hurry to return.  My wife (educated, dual citizen) believes that what the Thai government is doing about Covid is good (I don't, but I continue to pester her to explain to me how destroying the economy is ok).  They had one confirmed case with the Eqyptian and the entire country lost its mind!  Imagine if tourism opened! OMG.

 

I sent her the Thai road accidents report yesterday ... 7414 dead, 38 yesterday vs 58 all time Covid deaths.  And I asked her how does she reconcile that?  She can't answer -- she is caught up in the moment that "we must have NO Covid infections at all costs" or we all die.  

And it truly is, "at all costs", IMO.

[Trillian]

4 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

 

The Thai tourism model is based on high volume/low margin.

 

In order to acommodate tens of millions of tourists there will be new, additional costs.

 

This will eat into the margin, unless you pass those costs onto the "tourist".

 

Plus no one really wants to come here, or go anywhere.

 

That said, my post was poorly worded.

 

 

There are many different segments of the Thai tourism market from backpackers in 300 baht a night guest houses, through mass tourism and on to FITS and high end travellers, only the mass market segment is high volume low margin and that segment is being discouraged.

 

New Additional Costs: the tourism sector is overpopulated with hotels et al, there is an over supply of everything, especially hotel rooms. As a consequence there is no additional cost to absorb a further 50% in tourist numbers because that infrastructure and staffing is already in place, elbeit underutilised.

 

I agree few people want to go anywhere although large numbers of people seem to want to come here, historically, as evidenced by the YOY growth in tourist arrival numbers.