America about to go full Sweden

[torturedsole]

13 minutes ago, RoadWarrior371 said:

Either some number dies quickly, or you extend that same number out for years under an economic shutdown.

Jeez, I'm not going to argue particularly as the economic devastation of this global lockdown is yet to be fully realised.  

 

The UK government and MSM are now feeding us the guilt trip that if we don't promptly return to the office then fast food outlets in city centres will fold.  

 

I didn't ask for lockdown and I'm not responsible for Pret a Manger and other establishments making their staff redundant because no one's buying their expensive sandwiches. I never patronised them anyway and their business model was great at the time but don't expect me to prop them up through sympathy.

 

I do not want to return to the regular commute into London as I've seen the WFH light.  

 

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by torturedsole

[cmarshall]

12 hours ago, DrTuner said:

Sweden messed up in that the virus got to elderly care homes and the reaper had a field day. What I'd be interested to see is what happened after that initial impact?

The deaths per million is the best metric of how well or poorly a country did because it is cumulative and scaled for the size of population.  Unless people start coming back from the dead the number never goes down.  So, your suggestion amounts to "But if we ignore some of the deaths, then the deaths per million is lower, right?"

Edited September 4, 2020 by cmarshall

[cmarshall]

5 hours ago, rabang said:

Sweden doesn't seem to have an abnormal amount of deaths so far this year compared to previous years.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

 

You also have to remember when comparing the numbers that their population has increased by one million in just 10 years, which is quite a lot for a country of roughly 10 million.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/521464/sweden-total-population/

But if we look at excess deaths for Sweden this year month by month as tallied by the Economist, then we see a number that matches very closely the count of confirmed Covid deaths.

 

So much for that attempt to excuse the callous Swedes.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

[tonray]

20 hours ago, SteveK said:

By the way, that approach was always successful.

Yeah...worked famously with smallpox, polio and other debilitating diseases...oh wait...it didn't

[geriatrickid]

9 hours ago, torturedsole said:

That old chestnut is getting boring now.

 

Five UK Nightingale hospitals fitted out at great expense to the UK taxpayer then mothballed within two months due to complete and utter lack of demand.   

You are complaining because the efforts to slow the spread of infection worked. Those hospitals  would have been filled to capacity had the UK not suspended multiple activities at the time. As you may recall, there was resistance and dithering to the  suspension.

Your argument is preposterous.

[rabang]

21 hours ago, cmarshall said:

But if we look at excess deaths for Sweden this year month by month as tallied by the Economist, then we see a number that matches very closely the count of confirmed Covid deaths.

 

So much for that attempt to excuse the callous Swedes.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

 

 

We have to wait for the whole year total numbers to assess it. If the figures do not show any excess mortality for the whole year then the corona peak does not represent true excess deaths. If the total number for this year is more or less the same as previous years I would find it implausible that without corona there would be about 5k deaths less than previous years when the number has been steadily around 90 thousand deaths per year.

 

https://emanuelkarlsten.se/number-of-deaths-in-sweden-during-the-pandemic-compared-to-previous-years-mortality/

 

Quote

From having a high excess mortality during the pandemic, the death rate has sunk since May to finally land on more normal levels in June. During the second half of June, we even see a mortality below normal for the first time since the pandemic, something that is expected after a period of high mortality in older age groups. Aside from week 28 and 32, we are below normal mortality every week since week 27.

 

[Stygge]

21 hours ago, cmarshall said:

But if we look at excess deaths for Sweden this year month by month as tallied by the Economist, then we see a number that matches very closely the count of confirmed Covid deaths.

 

So much for that attempt to excuse the callous Swedes.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

Yes, but I think lately the deaths in Sweden are on a lower level than normal which suggest that many of the people dying in March-April would have died within a couple of month anyway. The oldest and sickest.

[cmarshall]

1 hour ago, Stygge said:

Yes, but I think lately the deaths in Sweden are on a lower level than normal which suggest that many of the people dying in March-April would have died within a couple of month anyway. The oldest and sickest.

The pro-Sweden just-let-the-old-folks-die strategy keep looking for some future statistic that will show that their strategy somehow made sense.  The first graph below taken from the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine shows how the measures adopted by Sweden were measurably less strict than those of neighboring countries, while the second shows the resulting rates of infection which were both higher and lasted longer in Sweden.  If the Swedes were going to follow the "herd immunity" strategy, for which there was never any scientific basis, then they should at least have protected the vulnerable segments of the population such as the nursing homes.  But, by Giesecke's own admission the government did exactly nothing to protect the aged.  So, of course, they died in large numbers, but this was avoidable.

 

The opinion of the authors in the JRSM:  It is likely that some of this inter-Scandinavian difference in mortality outcomes might have also have arisen from a failure to shield the most vulnerable Swedes from viral infections (40%–50% of their cases have been in the elderly nursing home resident population).²

 

So, now you hope that a small dip in overall mortality immediately following the epidemic will somehow even things out.  Keep hoping.  Giesecke and Tegnells should be in jail.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/3/2020 at 4:33 PM, cmarshall said:

Dr. Atlas thinks the more people who contract Covid the better the sooner "herd immunity" will be achieved and normal life can resume.

Completely true, IMO. That's how the human race survived for millenia. Seems that disease has changed according to some, but mainly IMO for political reasons.

 

It's called nature- survival of the fittest.

Edited September 5, 2020 by thaibeachlovers

[thaibeachlovers]

23 hours ago, tonray said:

Yeah...worked famously with smallpox, polio and other debilitating diseases...oh wait...it didn't

Yeah, we eradicated fatal diseases and overpopulated the world. Now we'll just die en mass of diseases caused by crowding in unhealthy cities instead, IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 9/3/2020 at 4:46 PM, Surelynot said:

Have you thought the action taken so far has limited the number of deaths......Oh!.....but you don't care do you?

Hasn't killed many that were healthy or young.

[Bluetongue]

Sweden had a unusually low death rate amongst its elderly population in the years prior to the pandemic leading to what they called the dry tinder effect

[DrTuner]

8 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

dry tinder effect

Is that when nobody swipes right?

[cmarshall]

15 minutes ago, Bluetongue said:

Sweden had a unusually low death rate amongst its elderly population in the years prior to the pandemic leading to what they called the dry tinder effect

1.  Do you have a source for this claim?

2.  Although I recognize that the supporters here of the Swedish just-let-the-old-folks-die policy find this fact hard to grasp, the failure to lockdown when the other European countries were locking down in March and April is the second failure of the Swedish government's epidemic policy, not the first.  The first failure was not to be surveilling China and probably Africa for emergent pathogens since 2003 that would have detected Covid-19 when S. Korea, Vietnam, and Taiwan did in late 2019 or January, 2020 followed immediately by a vigorous program of testing, isolating positives, and tracing contacts.  That is how those Asian countries suppressed the virus with a cost in deaths of less than 10 per million.  Sweden has the eighth worst record record with 572 deaths per million, although the US will soon surpass that number. 

 

The two prongs of the Swedish policy to let the old folks die consisted of letting the virus run wild, based on a crackpot notion of "herd immunity" while doing nothing, zero, zip, nada to protect the highly vulnerable elderly population, particularly those in nursing homes. 

 

Sweden should be given an anti-Nobel prize.

[Hank Gunn]

The same CDC mentioned in the OP is now saying that 94% of people who have "Covid 19" or more generically "influenza" had other comorbidity factors. But that doesn't feed into "panic-porn" that feeds the media's click-rates and viewership numbers (in other words, their bank accounts). Not to mention the politicization of this whole thing  (especially from one particular side in the US) in order to try to score political points.

 

Same thing in Italy, except it's 99% for comorbidity factors. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

In England and Wales, 9 in 10 deaths (91%) were due to comorbidity factors. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52308783?fbclid=IwAR3WxAkwj4T8DiPwx71t_7HcFOvLlVrCpCPw97-x9sNvYMXchlgasSKedsw

 

[Credo]

12 hours ago, Hank Gunn said:

The same CDC mentioned in the OP is now saying that 94% of people who have "Covid 19" or more generically "influenza" had other comorbidity factors. But that doesn't feed into "panic-porn" that feeds the media's click-rates and viewership numbers (in other words, their bank accounts). Not to mention the politicization of this whole thing  (especially from one particular side in the US) in order to try to score political points.

 

Same thing in Italy, except it's 99% for comorbidity factors. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

 

In England and Wales, 9 in 10 deaths (91%) were due to comorbidity factors. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52308783?fbclid=IwAR3WxAkwj4T8DiPwx71t_7HcFOvLlVrCpCPw97-x9sNvYMXchlgasSKedsw

 

I don't understand this deflection about comorbidity.  It's nonsensical.   In the US, 40% of the population is obese and that number increases dramatically if you include overweight people.   One in three adults have high blood pressure, 50% of all adults have some form of cardiovascular disease.   

That makes for one huge chunk of people that have a good chance of not surviving.   

 

Now, factor in the cost of all the people who are hospitalized and the extensive amount of time they require hospitalization.   That's one big expense and one huge drain on the medical system.   

Finally, factor in the quarantine period for those who come in contact with the disease.   That's about 14 days for someone who isn't even sick.   That starts adding up to a lot of productive people out of the work force at any given time and again, a huge drain on the economy.   

 

[Hank Gunn]

2 hours ago, Credo said:

I don't understand this deflection about comorbidity.  It's nonsensical.   In the US, 40% of the population is obese and that number increases dramatically if you include overweight people.   One in three adults have high blood pressure, 50% of all adults have some form of cardiovascular disease.   

That makes for one huge chunk of people that have a good chance of not surviving.   

 

Now, factor in the cost of all the people who are hospitalized and the extensive amount of time they require hospitalization.   That's one big expense and one huge drain on the medical system.   

Finally, factor in the quarantine period for those who come in contact with the disease.   That's about 14 days for someone who isn't even sick.   That starts adding up to a lot of productive people out of the work force at any given time and again, a huge drain on the economy.   

 

Pointing out comorbidity factors is no “deflection” at all. It’s simply stating the facts. In fact, ignoring them is. It simply shows that this virus is not the scourge many make it out to be. 
 

Originally, these factors were not taken into account when tallying mortality rates, making for great headlines (more mouse-clicks/page-views=more ad revenue) and more government funding for hospitals. People who had multiple comorbidity factors (e.g. cancer combined with heart valve replacement surgery) who were days or weeks away from dying from those factors and who were infected by the virus, had their death certificates list the virus as the cause of death.

 

Until comorbidity is actually recognized by those making policy, they’re making decisions based on false data. (Many doctors, biostatisticians, and epidemiologists agree.)

Edited September 6, 2020 by Hank Gunn

[ThailandRyan]

On 9/3/2020 at 11:45 AM, RichardColeman said:

Considering the sheer amount of obesity, heart disease, lung issues from smoking, alcohol issues, and other self inflicted issues that the general USA public have deliberately inflicted upon themselves - it could just be nature thinning the herd of stupidity ! !

And you believe the USA is the only country with those health issues.  I think you need to look at all of the countries and then those in poverty who eat cheap sugar and carbohydrate laden food such as fast food or even here in Thailand where obesity and diabetes is on the rise. So tell me more about America being the only country with self inflected issues. Thanks for being so open minded.

[Credo]

17 hours ago, Hank Gunn said:

Pointing out comorbidity factors is no “deflection” at all. It’s simply stating the facts. In fact, ignoring them is. It simply shows that this virus is not the scourge many make it out to be. 
 

Originally, these factors were not taken into account when tallying mortality rates, making for great headlines (more mouse-clicks/page-views=more ad revenue) and more government funding for hospitals. People who had multiple comorbidity factors (e.g. cancer combined with heart valve replacement surgery) who were days or weeks away from dying from those factors and who were infected by the virus, had their death certificates list the virus as the cause of death.

 

Until comorbidity is actually recognized by those making policy, they’re making decisions based on false data. (Many doctors, biostatisticians, and epidemiologists agree.)

Now you have gone from deflection to falsehoods.   The cause of death is determined by the Coroner/medical examiner.  It includes a primary cause of death and contributing factors.  

 

The method of counting and calculating deaths is done by experts, not by policy.   With minor alterations, it's the same system used with Influenza and any other outbreak.   Oh, and check about comorbidity with influenza.   

 

[simon43]

20 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

And you believe the USA is the only country with those health issues. 

I can't see anywhere in Richard's post where he said that the USA is the only country with these health issues.  He simply cited the USA as an example.

[Throatwobbler]

On 9/3/2020 at 7:38 PM, Logosone said:

What you don't understand, clearly, is that Sweden:

 

A) Has had a miniscule number of deaths, 0.05% of Sweden's population. 

 

B) 96% of those deaths are in the 60-90 plus range who had underlying medical conditions

 

C) To compare the US population with Sweden's population is frankly pointless

 

Sweden is doing great.

 

As for this total nonsense:

 

 

What you need to understand is that those are exceptions. Immunity is the rule.  Immunity is a fact.

 

You are basically posting a load of nonsense. Get your facts straight.

Everything thing that you post about this has been total no sense since day one. Immunity is not a fact. Scientists are still unclear about how long any immunity would last and how effective it will be.

 

This has been pointed out to you on many occasions but you refuse to listen and still keep posting your lies.

 

[Scott]

Trolling meme removed.  

 

[steelepulse]

On 9/3/2020 at 4:46 PM, cmarshall said:

Sounds reasonable, doesn't it?  But let's just check the score and see how well Sweden did compared to other countries.  Whoops!  Not so good after all!  Sweden has achieved the eighth worse record in the pandemic as measured by the deaths per million.   Just for reference, S. Korea's deaths per million is 6.31 with a current rates of 2 deaths per day while Norway with a similarly low population density has had 49 deaths per million with zero deaths per day currently.

 

But wait.  Peru has had the hardest and longest of lockdowns.  Doesn't look like these measures worked to me.  Where would you rather live, in a country with no lockdowns, or in a country that had the severest lockdowns and by far the highest number of deaths per 1 million population?

[Nout]

On 9/4/2020 at 12:36 AM, Meat Pie 47 said:

When will you understand it is not a flu! We have vaccine for the flu, but not for covid-19

and we don't have chimneys.

If we have a vaccine for the flu ...why do we still get the flu?

[nemo38]

On 9/3/2020 at 11:46 AM, Surelynot said:

Have you thought the action taken so far has limited the number of deaths......Oh!.....but you don't care do you?

 

[cmarshall]

2 hours ago, steelepulse said:

But wait.  Peru has had the hardest and longest of lockdowns.  Doesn't look like these measures worked to me.  Where would you rather live, in a country with no lockdowns, or in a country that had the severest lockdowns and by far the highest number of deaths per 1 million population?

What is apparently above your pay grade to understand is that a lockdown is indeed a failure.  Success is testing, isolating positives, and tracing contacts, which, if done thoroughly and quickly, will suppress the virus without a lockdown as has been shown in Taiwan, S. Korea, Vietnam, and China excluding Hubei Province.  However, if the national government fails at these best practices, as all of the Western countries did, then there is no other alternative than to lockdown long enough to lower the transmission enough to resume the best practices.  This is what China did in Wuhan and Hubei.  There is no Covid in Wuhan now.