Third Wave Wreaking Havoc on Thailand’s Tourism Restart Plan - Where are we Now?

[webfact]

Empty beaches of Hua Hin      photo/©️AJ Wood 

 

Picture and Story by Andrew J Wood 

 

BANGKOK: Thailand Ministers ponder the next steps to re-start it’s massive tourism industry, initially set for July 1, 2021 in Phuket. The plan may need to be overhauled as Phuket struggles to immunise the whole island in the wake of the third wave of hotspots.

 

Phuket, prior to the third wave had already secured more than 100,000 doses and planned to receive an additional 930,000 doses by June. This would be enough for 70% of the population - the target needed to achieve herd immunity. The spike in Covid-19 cases has interrupted this plan, as vaccines must also be allocated to other provinces urgently to help fight the latest outbreaks. 

 

Not deterred, the Tourism and Sports Minister Pipat Ratchakitprakarn said he plans to meet next week with all relevant agencies to discuss the reopening plan, previously set for July this year. Eighteen provinces have now been declared red zones, with a partial lockdown and stay at home order. The alert warning was also raised across the rest of the country to orange, in all the remaining 59 provinces many of which had previously been green and considered safe.

 

Deciding to ignore expert warnings, the government allowed the Songkran holidays to go ahead, even adding an extra day. However no mass gatherings or water splashing were allowed.

 

(Songkran is the Thai New Year celebration which typically lasts 3-4 days, leading to a mass exodus of cities like Bangkok). 

 

Last year, due to Covid-19, the holiday was cancelled. As a result of the holiday this year, a few outbreaks in Bangkok allowed the virus to spread widely. The Bangkok outbreaks centred on entertainment places; restaurant-pubs and nightclubs around the Thonglor area, plus a high-society wedding at a new riverside hotel, whose guest list included a number of government Ministers and prominent business leaders.

 

The Covid virus from these few hotspots were quickly spread throughout the whole country, as people returned to their homes for the holidays. Unfortunately this was a perfect storm for spreading the virus. Up until this point, since the beginning of the pandemic, Thailand had only recorded 28,889 cases and 94 deaths as at April 1, 2021. Eighteen days later this has risen to 43,742 cases and 104 deaths. An increase in cases of 51 per cent. 

 

During my recent visit to Hua Hin, empty beaches were very much in evidence already with the third wave leading to mass cancellations. Some resorts, previously 70-80 per cent occupied, saw domestic arrivals decimated. Already hurting from a lack of international visitors, this latest outbreak was a most unwelcome guest. 

 

The question of re-opening Thailand to Tourism, starting with Phuket, has obviously taken a knock backwards. The Tourism and Sports Minster said, “The key determinant is insufficient vaccines, we are concerned about the re-opening timeline. We still need to discuss the vaccine administration plan. If the herd immunity goal cannot be achieved, we may have to consider opening only certain areas in Phuket," he said.

 

However, to continue with the same plan, even with restricted zones, will not be easy as long as the country still has increasing new daily infections, said Minister Pipat.

 

"Most importantly, we still have to hear from other countries that we already started travel bubble negotiations with about their confidence regarding the same timeline," he said.

 

Like Hua Hin, hotels in the North reported cancellations of more than 70 per cent with Chiang Mai a cause for concern and currently experiencing increased coronavirus cases. Prior to the pandemic, the province was a popular destination to celebrate Thai New Year.

 

Regrettably Minister Pipat is in self-quarantine after being in close contact with Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob, who was diagnosed with Covid-19. The Minster fortunately has already received his first vaccination jab last month (AstraZeneca) and will remain in isolation until next week when all tests are complete (3 swab tests). 

 

-- 2021-04-20

[PatOngo]

Where are we Now?

We're on a road to nowhere!

[Surelynot]

Imagine being on a river say, or in a valley (creek maybe?) and your hand slips and the only paddle you have floats away on a river of......... I would say that is where 'we' are.

[PatOngo]

1 minute ago, Surelynot said:

Imagine being on a river say, or in a valley (creek maybe?) and your hand slips and the only paddle you have floats away on a river of......... I would say that is where 'we' are.

You mean "up $#!t creek without a paddle!"

[Excel]

Just now, PatOngo said:

You mean "up $#!t creek without a paddle!"

Is that a euphemism for Government House ?

[PatOngo]

1 minute ago, Excel said:

Is that a euphemism for Government House ?

It means they're deep in it with not much hope of getting out in a hurry!!

[Misterwhisper]

"Reeking Havoc"?

 

Yup, I've always found havoc to have some sort of a malodorous aura about it.

 

But seriously, when I look at the OP ic with that beautiful (empty!) beach in Hua Hin, I cannot help but think that a little "havoc" is perhaps exactly what this country's eco system needed badly. And the longer that havoc persists, the more chance it has to recover and possibly survive into the next century.

[ftpjtm]

Expect lockdown after lockdown until the vast majority of the population is vaccinated with something other than Sinovac. 

 

Since Siam Bioscience won't let anyone see how they're progressing, Thailand didn't join COVAX, and every other government in the world is farther up the queue for vaccine purchases, I don't see that happening until 2022 earliest. 

[mikebell]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

This would be enough for 70% of the population

Reported today in UK Guardian that Thailand has not reached ONE % yet!  Even Cambodia has managed 6!

[Surelynot]

Just now, mikebell said:

Reported today in UK Guardian that Thailand has not reached ONE % yet!  Even Cambodia has managed 6!

I'll hang back until that is confirmed by the Daily Express......555

[RichardColeman]

On the new 'weekly trends' on worldometer, Thailand is now the 5th most dangerous country for new % weekly death change, and 8th for % weekly case change. Not exactly going to sell holidays is it

 

 

[hotandsticky]

4 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

On the new 'weekly trends' on worldometer, Thailand is now the 5th most dangerous country for new % weekly death change, and 8th for % weekly case change. Not exactly going to sell holidays is it

 

 

 

 

Are they trying to?

 

 

Isn't 1st October the real get up and go date ?

[overherebc]

Re travel bubbles.

From what I heard on the news from uk today the Aus/NZ bubble has just burst because of a covid case in Auckland airport.

[Emdog]

"This would be enough for 70% of the population - the target needed to achieve herd immunity."

I think the flaw in "herd immunity" is assumption the herd size remains at a steady level and no new outside cattle are allowed in with hoof and mouth disease...

TAT should have put all of it's efforts into getting everyone here vaccinated, rather than cooking up absurd plans with snowballs chance in heck of coming to fruition. But that would involve thinking, planning,... not their forte.

[brucegoniners]

If the government was handling this properly we wouldn't be having these issues.

 

Unfortunately allowing the holiday to go on with no controls and having big festivals, like the one in Jomtien this weekend, it may be until 2022 before tourists return.

 

Not to mention the choice of vaccines and the clunky vaccine rollout.

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Phuket, prior to the third wave had already secured more than 100,000 doses and planned to receive an additional 930,000 doses by June. This would be enough for 70% of the population - the target needed to achieve herd immunity. The spike in Covid-19 cases has interrupted this plan, as vaccines must also be allocated to other provinces urgently to help fight the latest outbreaks. 

Even if Phuket manages to secures 1,030,000 Doses of Vaccine by June, which is highly unlikely, Tourists will still not visit the Island.

The main reason for that, is that they will be basically held captive on the Island, for the entire duration of their Vacation time, as travel elsewhere in Thailand will be severely restricted due to a lack of vaccination outside the Islands shores.

[CLW]

The situation would be much better manageable if they hadn't set all their hopes for only one vaccine.

Now this decision bites back.

[ParkerN]

I'm not so sure that Herd Immunity is a thing at all - opinions seem divided, but I'm sure 70% is not the point at which it is credibly theorized to be achieved.

 

Seems like a Thai (perhaps one with influence or credibility who would be believed by decision-makers) has got some information and proceeded to make a mess of it. Which is more predictable than Herd Immunity. Thai authorities are unlikely to believe anything a non-Thai says, it's a bias problem.

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Imagine being on a river say, or in a valley (creek maybe?) and your hand slips and the only paddle you have floats away on a river of......... I would say that is where 'we' are.

So up S creek without a paddle.  Will there be ants on a log nearby you might be able to use, and not a baby ruth.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Not deterred, the Tourism and Sports Minister Pipat Ratchakitprakarn said he plans to meet next week with all relevant agencies to discuss the reopening plan, previously set for July this year.

Just cancel 2021, Pipat is an embarrassment.

[maechanman]

Where are we now? No nearer than we were this time last year I would say .

[sammieuk1]

Where are we now? at the point of running out of faces to loose ????

[Excel]

2 hours ago, maechanman said:

Where are we now? No nearer than we were this time last year I would say .

[Fex Bluse]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

BANGKOK: Thailand Ministers ponder the next steps to re-start it’s massive tourism industry, initially set for July 1, 2021 in Phuket. The plan may need to be overhauled as Phuket struggles to immunise the whole island in the wake of the third wave of hotspots.

 

They refuse to understand that their tourism plans were dead from the start.

 

Tourism is not coming back in any substantial amounts until the entire damage of this pandemic plays out. 

 

I'd say it's almost a guarantee next 2 high seasons are going to show very low numbers. 

 

This is a crisis that will take YEARS to resolve, not months. People are still losing jobs, spending down their retirement, scared to travel, etc.

[Fex Bluse]

4 hours ago, CLW said:

The situation would be much better manageable if they hadn't set all their hopes for only one vaccine.

Now this decision bites back.

 

Actually, they did almost everything wrong which is not a surprise. 

 

The worst was their bet that they could simply trick the tourists, I mean lure, into visiting by a) not testing or reporting virtually any cases and b) running dozens of marketing campaigns saying Thailand, amongst almost all countries globally, had somehow avoided the pandemic.

 

They thought their lie would hold out and the virus would just go away. 

 

Now they pay a big price, that they have earned. 

[Searat7]

Even if tourists come to Phuket this year all of the interesting tourist places that have been closed for months are not going to start up again like magic. Except for the nice beaches they might be a bit bored at first. 

 

[superal]

9 hours ago, mikebell said:

Reported today in UK Guardian that Thailand has not reached ONE % yet!  Even Cambodia has managed 6!

I think you are close to the truth and the Thai strategy on dealing with the outbreak of covid .  Most posts on here think too logically and we all know that is not the Thai way .   

    First and foremost in Thailand comes money and the economy at any cost to the suppressed lower class . Your hi so folk will have had the jabs and the poor people will have potluck .                     The covid stats/ reports are not reliable or extensive as per D.Trump statement " The more we test the more covid cases we find " , so less testing will reveal lower cases but the western world will not be fooled and Thailand will soon be on the  red list of many countries  because they do not have a reliable test facility . So called field hospitals are just a collection depot with few facilities . It appears that Thailand has paired up with Brazilian tactics and a holocaust  threatens .  

[CLW]

19 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

Actually, they did almost everything wrong which is not a surprise. 

 

The worst was their bet that they could simply trick the tourists, I mean lure, into visiting by a) not testing or reporting virtually any cases and b) running dozens of marketing campaigns saying Thailand, amongst almost all countries globally, had somehow avoided the pandemic.

 

They thought their lie would hold out and the virus would just go away. 

 

Now they pay a big price, that they have earned. 

And besides that, the government has literally done nothing in this one year where there were no high number of cases or clusters. No ramping up of testing facilities or capacities, following that no random mass testing to identify asymptomatic cases. No efforts to secure rapid tests for distribution among the population (paid or free). All they've done was waiting and hoping for good luck. Proactive thinking will never be a thing here.

[Mr Meeseeks]

20 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

They refuse to understand that their tourism plans were dead from the start.

 

Tourism is not coming back in any substantial amounts until the entire damage of this pandemic plays out. 

 

I'd say it's almost a guarantee next 2 high seasons are going to show very low numbers. 

 

This is a crisis that will take YEARS to resolve, not months. People are still losing jobs, spending down their retirement, scared to travel, etc.

This is the correct answer and has been obvious since March/April 2020.

 

It's all over for the foreseeable. 

[RocketDog]

21 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

 

They refuse to understand that their tourism plans were dead from the start.

 

Tourism is not coming back in any substantial amounts until the entire damage of this pandemic plays out. 

 

I'd say it's almost a guarantee next 2 high seasons are going to show very low numbers. 

 

This is a crisis that will take YEARS to resolve, not months. People are still losing jobs, spending down their retirement, scared to travel, etc.

Correct Fex. Shameless denial of reality. 

The entire concept of herd immunity, largely a fantasy before, is a dead idea as long as 30-40% of people in most countries will refuse the vaccine. 

 

Control and even hope of control vanished months ago. Our future is now several jabs a year, each one being specific to the latest variants extant. Covid will become as endemic as the flu is now, and hopefully no more harmful to those vaccinated. To those not naturally immune or effectively vaccinated, every day will be a gamble. Talk about a social division, this will be the grandaddy. 

 

Given that vaccinated mothers have been shown to confer immunization on their babies, future generations may largely have a natural herd immunity. Or not. 

Grim prediction, but no more unwarranted than groundless optimism. The world is no closer to a benign tipping point that it is to a tragic one. Like it not this is going to play out as it does.