Covid-19: What’s the Endgame?

[Danderman123]

Although the cycles of lockdowns and re-openings seem to go on forever, with vaccinations increasing, at some point, a large percent of the population will be vaccinated, and the situation will change. We already seeing infections in Israel shrink from 5,000 a day to 100, after their vaccination campaign.

 

So, what happens when 80% of the population is inoculated? 
 

There will always be dead Enders who refuse vaccination. Unless the government imposes harsh penalties on refuseniks, the virus will continue to spread, albeit in small pockets. We may have a situation where life returns to normal, but is interrupted regionally with these localized outbreaks among the unvaccinated. In the US, where people refuse vaccines for political reasons, there may be a demographic shift, where older white people are significantly reduced in numbers by the virus, on a regional level. Similarly, in Thailand, some older Farangs may disappear, due to exposure to the virus.

 

Texting requirements for transit between countries may continue, but testing systems should be faster and cheaper. 
 

Ultimately, society may treat Covid as it does measles today. 
 

Or, the virus may mutate into a less lethal variant, like the flu.

[starky]

Maybe but not many look like taking the foot of the brake anytime soon.

  Look at countries like Australia who seem to accept zero cases as the only option and want to send cities into rolling lockdowns over 1 or 2 cases. At that sort of rate "endgame" could be many many years away

[cclub75]

Although the cycles of lockdowns and re-openings seem to go on forever, with vaccinations increasing, at some point, a large percent of the population will be vaccinated, and the situation will change.

 

Indeed. Everything changes with the vaccines ! Look at the UK for instance ! ????

Edited May 2, 2021 by cclub75

[Meat Pie 47]

5 hours ago, starky said:

Maybe but not many look like taking the foot of the brake anytime soon.

  Look at countries like Australia who seem to accept zero cases as the only option and want to send cities into rolling lockdowns over 1 or 2 cases. At that sort of rate "endgame" could be many many years away

They are o lock downs downs just restriction

[starky]

2 hours ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

They are o lock downs downs just restriction

So Perth didn't just have a 3 day lockdown? There are currently 0 lockdowns doesn't mean there are 0 lockdowns McGowan threatening to lockdown again if they get 1 more case.

   Further to the point the original narrative was don't overwhelm the hospitals and emergency rooms Australia and never even come close to that. Then it was it was its a new virus so it will take time. Fast forward 14 months now we have to wait for the vaccine rollout which conservative estimates put at minimum 12 months. So as far as endgames go where are they going to move the goalposts to another year from now.

  Unrealistic and disproportionate approach particularly by the WA government.

  I was in Brisbane last month when they had the lockdown due to the massive 8 person outbreak of historical cases that had already been in the community for over 4 weeks. Who allegedly had the hyper contagious UK variant so how many additional cases were found? 2. Hyper contagious? Funnily enough Vic and NSW kept their borders open. WA? Immediate border closure to all Queenslanders for 2 weeks

 I was in Perth for the last 3 day lockdown again of the hyper contagious variant where the 3 people who had been out and about in the community with multiple hotspots and one infected person with nearly 300 close contacts...again how many additional cases found? 0

 Hyper contagious? Ya reckon?

[DerbyDan]

Endgame is your going to learn to adapt to the environment, get your vaccine and wear your mask. If not, natural selection will do it for you.

 

 

[Bluetongue]

Under the criteria Mcgowan previously used WA would have been locked down again by now. The fact that he has not is interesting. Could it be that community support for such measures is waning, I think that is at least in part true. It could also be that very conservative health advisers are gaining more confidence in their prevention and tracing methods. But as far as Australia is concerned the end game is still going to be a slow process, there is still no discussion about quarantine requirements, post vaccination or relaxing of any border measures which is clearly not going to happen this year in any substantial way.

[cmarshall]

Unless the rich countries decide to vaccinate all seven billion human beings, Covid will remain with us.  Annual booster shots are likely as are new, improved variants.  So, no end game.

 

I think the rich countries should eradicate it like smallpox, but it remains to be seen whether they will commit to to the project.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/2/2021 at 11:33 AM, Danderman123 said:

So, what happens when 80% of the population is inoculated? 

You think governments actually have a plan for that?

 

IMO at this stage any guess is as good as any other.

[thaibeachlovers]

26 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

Unless the rich countries decide to vaccinate all seven billion human beings, Covid will remain with us.

At the rate of population increase in poor countries, it's likely to be over 9 billion before just western countries get vaccinated.

Google tells me it's already 7.9 billion.

Given the huge debts run up already, that will IMO result in tax rises, I very much doubt western taxpayers will accept the cost of vaccinating the entire world population. Besides, IMO there is plenty of money in most countries, but it's confined to the 1%. They should pay up for their own countries before the west starts supporting them.

[RubbaJohnny]

If you look at the history of virus not us there are thre possible outcomes.

 

The virus kills all , runs out of human hosts moves to other species or dies out.

 

The virus is isolated and finally eradicated, extremely unlikely due to mutation and number of potential human and or animal hosts.

 

As with other covid we adapt and most survive , it continues to be a hazard, as constantly mutating but is mainly risk  for the already weak, I guess this is the best we can hope for. It will help if you are fit, rich and well educated as in most areas of life.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/2/2021 at 11:33 AM, Danderman123 said:

 

There will always be dead Enders who refuse vaccination

You shouldn't claim that that is everyone that won't take a corona vaccine. Many take other vaccines, but have serious concerns that the corona vaccines were rushed and not safe.

[Kinnock]

I suspect that new variants will make an annual booster necessary, exacerbating the challenge of low vaccination levels in less developed countries, so COVID will be with us forever, like flu.

 

But the ongoing economic impact and erosion of personal freedoms will force people to accept a higher level of risk, and erode the unrealistic expectation that bureaucracy and science can somehow protect everyone from nature.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, RubbaJohnny said:

If you look at the history of virus not us there are thre possible outcomes.

 

The virus kills all , runs out of human hosts moves to other species or dies out.

 

The virus is isolated and finally eradicated, extremely unlikely due to mutation and number of potential human and or animal hosts.

 

As with other covid we adapt and most survive , it continues to be a hazard, as constantly mutating but is mainly risk  for the already weak, I guess this is the best we can hope for. It will help if you are fit, rich and well educated as in most areas of life.

Do you know of a disease that has completely eradicated any species? In every plague I know of there are people that survive and go on to repopulate the species.

Even the Black Death didn't kill off the human race.

[Patong2021]

We will not be 80% vaccinated for long time. 

- Young people population in many countries is 25%. Until they are vaccinated we will have people infected circulating.

It is not expected that young people will be dosed for 5-6 months. 

- Much of the world still does not have access to vaccines. Until they are dosed, we will all be at risk of new variant. These people will travel either legal or illegal. Only some countries Australia, Taiwan, Japan have courage to block people from infection zone. 

 

Smallpox was the last disease to be eradicated, but polio still exists because such a vaccine campaign is impossible. As long as there are tribal primitives like Taliban and fundamentalists in Pakistan, and Boko Harum in Africa, and crazies in the west, large % of population will never be vaccinated. There is no reason for measle epidemic in the west today, but they occur because  too many are not vaccinated 

[RubbaJohnny]

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Do you know of a disease that has completely eradicated any species? In every plague I know of there are people that survive and go on to repopulate the species.

Even the Black Death didn't kill off the human race.

You may well be correct and it was not my prediction just a logical possibility 

See 

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna27556747

For a more in depth analysis

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3427566/

 

Keep up the good posts

[thaibeachlovers]

9 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

We will not be 80% vaccinated for long time. 

- Young people population in many countries is 25%. Until they are vaccinated we will have people infected circulating.

It is not expected that young people will be dosed for 5-6 months. 

- Much of the world still does not have access to vaccines. Until they are dosed, we will all be at risk of new variant. These people will travel either legal or illegal. Only some countries Australia, Taiwan, Japan have courage to block people from infection zone. 

 

Smallpox was the last disease to be eradicated, but polio still exists because such a vaccine campaign is impossible. As long as there are tribal primitives like Taliban and fundamentalists in Pakistan, and Boko Harum in Africa, and crazies in the west, large % of population will never be vaccinated. There is no reason for measle epidemic in the west today, but they occur because  too many are not vaccinated 

IMO some vaccination campaigns fail because they were too successful. Because measles was mostly eradicated, some thought it wasn't necessary to get their children vaccinated, only for them to become infected in the last outbreak.

[Patong2021]

7 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You shouldn't claim that that is everyone that won't take a corona vaccine. Many take other vaccines, but have serious concerns that the corona vaccines were rushed and not safe.

 Then they are ignorant idiots. The western vaccines were in development for 10years+. Oxford had been working on the vaccine since SARS. The vaccine construct used for the Oxford, Jansen, and Novavax vaccines are old school and have been around for decades. The mRNA vaccine technology used by Pfizer and Moderna was based upon  cancer treatment research.  The western vaccines are safe. if they were not, there would be  millions of dead people by now considering the hundreds of millions now with at least one dose. The serious adverse reactions are insignificant in number.  The polio vaccine was put into the market faster than these vaccines. Penicillin was used faster. Insulingn was put into the market faster.  The decision was made that the benefits outweighed the potential costs. And now we see how much positive the vaccines have delivered.  UK and USA are coming back to life because of vaccines. People who choose not to be vaccinated because of personal choice must assume the cost of that choice.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 Then they are ignorant idiots. The western vaccines were in development for 10years+. Oxford had been working on the vaccine since SARS. The vaccine construct used for the Oxford, Jansen, and Novavax vaccines are old school and have been around for decades. The mRNA vaccine technology used by Pfizer and Moderna was based upon  cancer treatment research.  The western vaccines are safe. if they were not, there would be  millions of dead people by now considering the hundreds of millions now with at least one dose. The serious adverse reactions are insignificant in number.  The polio vaccine was put into the market faster than these vaccines. Penicillin was used faster. Insulingn was put into the market faster.  The decision was made that the benefits outweighed the potential costs. And now we see how much positive the vaccines have delivered.  UK and USA are coming back to life because of vaccines. People who choose not to be vaccinated because of personal choice must assume the cost of that choice.

If that's a fact then blame the government relying on coercion too much and not providing the facts in a form that would convince the public that they are safe. Ie treat people like responsible adults and not morons that have to be forced to to do something.

Not helped when the government stops the use of such "safe" vaccines when people start to die or get sick because of them.

[cormanr7]

In Israel, the number of people that has received (at least one) vaccination has reached a plateau of ca 63% and has only marginally increased since the end of March 2021 (from ourworldindata.org). With ca 30% of the population 15 years or younger (the latter not eligible for vaccination, though this may change soon for 12-15 year olds), this indicates a very high vaccination coverage.  

      In the USA, however, the vaccination rate has dropped significantly and some of the larger centres will be closed due to lack of demand (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/02/us-covid-vaccinations-clinics-outreach-campaigns-vaccine-hesitancy). So far, ca 31% of the population has received two shots. This would increase to ca 44% if all the outstanding second shots were administered. There are serious problems with vaccine acceptance, especially in rural areas (https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/18/us/covid-vaccine-slowing-us-demand/index.html)  and 'red' states. As things are going, there is no way 80% of the population will be vaccinated (that is assuming that children will be eligible in the future; if not 80% will not be reached anyway in almost any country). So if, in the end, say 40% is not vaccinated, the picture is not that rosy.

[Damrongsak]

I'm a Buddhist, perhaps nominally.  So if I die, I'll be back around again, like the flu or Covid.  Maybe in another lifetime I can be a Prime Minister or a soi dog... annoy people either way. 

[faraday]

The endgame?

 

Eventually, it will be contained, & most everyone, each year will 'pop along' to get their jab, & those benevolent, caring pharmaceutical companies, will make even more money.

 

If I was to express my opinion, it would be like a ☁️ in the hot sun. ????

 

Just consider this number, highlighted in red.

 

 

 

 

 

[DerbyDan]

Endgame : Much blood my friend.

[meechai]

On 5/2/2021 at 5:11 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

On 5/2/2021 at 4:59 PM, Patong2021 said:

Then they are ignorant idiots. The western vaccines were in development for 10years+. Oxford had been working on the vaccine since SARS.

If that's a fact then blame the government relying on coercion too much and not providing the facts in a form that would convince the public that they are safe.

 

It is only a fact in his mind where test on ferrets & monkeys count as development & ready for humans ????

 

Here is a simple proof....The C19 vac's are only approved for "Emergency Usage" Meaning not FDA Approved .....aka: not enough data collected (ON HUMANS) to be approved

Edited May 5, 2021 by meechai

[meechai]

 On 5/1/2021 at 1:33 PM, Danderman123 said:

There will always be dead Enders who refuse vaccination.

On 5/2/2021 at 4:36 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

You shouldn't claim that that is everyone that won't take a corona vaccine. Many take other vaccines, but have serious concerns that the corona vaccines were rushed and not safe. 

 

 

Yes & also he should not complain this is after all a Clinical Trial in progress as no long term data exists

As such there need to be the clinical trial (those being vaccinated) & the Control Group...(Those not being vaccinated)

[cdemundo]

49 minutes ago, meechai said:

 

It is only a fact in his mind where test on ferrets & monkeys count as development & ready for humans ????

 

Here is a simple proof

....The C19 vac's are only approved for "Emergency Usage" Meaning not FDA Approved .....aka: not enough data collected (ON HUMANS) to be approved

They have been approved for emergency use because..... drum roll please... we have a freakin' emergency.

If you don't believe there is an emergency then volunteer to go to India and help with the non-probliem there.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, meechai said:

 

It is only a fact in his mind where test on ferrets & monkeys count as development & ready for humans ????

 

Here is a simple proof....The C19 vac's are only approved for "Emergency Usage" Meaning not FDA Approved .....aka: not enough data collected (ON HUMANS) to be approved

From what I understand, the Covid virus is unsafe for humans. But you seem to prefer infection by the virus to injection with a vaccine.

[DoctorB]

A large number of vulnerable people will die.

A much greater number of people will have the disease and recover, acquiring a degree of immunity.

Slowly but surely greater numbers will acquire a degree of immunity through vaccination.

Thus over a fairly extended period, say 3 to 10 years, Covid will become a mangeable problem, though with occasional outbreaks provoking the usual media hysteria.

A new world normal will emerge; somethings will be the same, others very difference - such is the nature of social change.

On the other hand this is simply logical guesswork. In practice what actually happens is always what is least expected. Who in 2019 ever anticipated the current world situation? Whatever the endgame, it won't be what you expect.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, DoctorB said:

A large number of vulnerable people will die.

A much greater number of people will have the disease and recover, acquiring a degree of immunity.

Slowly but surely greater numbers will acquire a degree of immunity through vaccination.

Thus over a fairly extended period, say 3 to 10 years, Covid will become a mangeable problem, though with occasional outbreaks provoking the usual media hysteria.

A new world normal will emerge; somethings will be the same, others very difference - such is the nature of social change.

On the other hand this is simply logical guesswork. In practice what actually happens is always what is least expected. Who in 2019 ever anticipated the current world situation? Whatever the endgame, it won't be what you expect.

Depending on the severity worldwide ( will most countries be like India, or like Australia? ), one can get some idea of the end game by looking at what happened after the Black Death or the 1918 flu epidemic.

In either event, in 100 years ( if we haven't polluted ourselves into extinction ) this will all be history, IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 5/5/2021 at 2:17 PM, Danderman123 said:

From what I understand, the Covid virus is unsafe for humans. But you seem to prefer infection by the virus to injection with a vaccine.

IMO only unsafe if in the group that gets infected, and of them only a small % ( apparently those with underlying health problems ) die. So unless everywhere becomes India, we shouldn't panic, IMO.

Edited May 6, 2021 by thaibeachlovers