Thailand reports 2,044 new coronavirus cases, 27 new deaths

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

Have to see the data before doing an assessment.

Ah the reactionary approach, thats not how it works.......................too late waiting for data, the damage has been done already

[Danderman123]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Ah the reactionary approach, thats not how it works.......................too late waiting for data, the damage has been done already

I know that you posted this five days ago, but please repeat your assessment of the epidemic, and your near term prognosis.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

I know that you posted this five days ago, but please repeat your assessment of the epidemic, and your near term prognosis.

 

 

First page of this thread. Just click the button 

[ThailandRyan]

18 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Cue the Doomsayers and the Exponential Definers.

 

I should note that there were a few thousand tests left over from testing in Klong Toey that were probably processed yesterday that added to today’s totals.

 

it is true that more testing will lead to more infections reported. Let’s see how many of today’s cases came from more testing, or more people showing up at hospitals. Or, maybe the prisons were tested.

Please give it a rest, and stop passing on your belief that this increase is just from left over tests from Klong Toey.  Go back to comparing the rest of Thailand to the job Chonburi is doing and making a connection that this government is doin the same job and the cases are falling and will be ending soon.  Your starting to sound like Anutin in reality.  Absent mass testing everywhere we do not have the total data points needed to make a true and best guesstimate of where we are.  Add in the variants that are on the borders and now possibly here and we have a totally different game then the first 14 months of this virus and pandemic.

[DrJack54]

2419

Death 19 ....Sat 8

[ThailandRyan]

9 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Instead of a bunch of worthless verbiage, how about telling us your assessment of the epidemic and its near term prognosis?

 

Please don't be a troll and tell us that you posted this four days ago.

Accusing him of being a troll is a defensive posture you are trying to take and thus trying to bait someone which is against forum rules.  You just do not seem to understand that obtaining all the data first and then analyzing it needs to be completed before one goes off half cocked and even tries to make an assessment as you do every day.  We have, and are asking, to see a more quantitative field of testing from all over in order to obtain the possibility of where we are going.  Instead the way it is being done leads them to be reactionary and continue on chasing cases instead of getting ahead of it.  You seem to think that a positivity rate of 5% is good and indicates the cases are slowing, when in reality they will keep on moving forward ad-infimum.  Unless they can get ahead of the issues, by testing in other areas as much as they are in known hotspots, that can not occur.

[Scott]

Off-topic, inflammatory post reported and removed.

 

[Bkk Brian]

12 minutes ago, Excel said:

You appear now to be deliberately making up baseless claims and assumptions about what I said? Tell me ,where did I ever claim it would be catastrophic ?  I think you better stop making false claims about what people say or do not say on here as other posters will think you are becoming delusional and perhaps unbalanced stuck in that hotel room of yours. If you do not desist from making erroneous claims and falsehoods about what I write you will be reported.

Sometimes its possible to lose the plot completely but never admit that publicly, similarities too what the government is doing right now. 

[anchadian]

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000646

 

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) said that as of Friday 5,006 people residing in Klong Toei communities had been vaccinated against Covid-19 in a move to contain the rising cluster cases found in the areas.

[Scott]

A post with an unattributed source has been reported and removed.  

 

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, anchadian said:

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40000646

 

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) said that as of Friday 5,006 people residing in Klong Toei communities had been vaccinated against Covid-19 in a move to contain the rising cluster cases found in the areas.

It is nice that they have vaccinated a few of those folks amongst the rest, but they need time to obtain the needed antibodies to see if it really helps against this variant and keeps them from becoming seriously Ill.  I hope that they would follow these folks for the next 6 months to see how there vaccination is holding against known cases arround them, and if any get sick after they have had the second jab to see how it plays out.

[Bkk Brian]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

It is nice that they have vaccinated a few of those folks amongst the rest, but they need time to obtain the needed antibodies to see if it really helps against this variant and keeps them from becoming seriously Ill.  I hope that they would follow these folks for the next 6 months to see how there vaccination is holding against known cases arround them, and if any get sick after they have had the second jab to see how it plays out.

You're right, it is a perfect environment to do a study on that. Get some real world figures on how Sinovac is doing against this variant. Hopefully it wont be just a facebook post by Dr Yong, something a little more official perhaps.

[Fex Bluse]

18 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I would argue that's a strong incentive to report the numbers honestly...do you think the Chinese, their largest and most important market, are going to allow their nationals to return if they suspect any fudging of the numbers. 

I like many of your posts, but I have to suspect you're having a laugh? The Chinese are the world's fudgiest in every aspect of their society. They did lobby to send their sickened tourists all over the world at the end of 2019 so perhaps they don't care.

[Pattaya Spotter]

8 minutes ago, Fex Bluse said:

I like many of your posts, but I have to suspect you're having a laugh? The Chinese are the world's fudgiest in every aspect of their society. They did lobby to send their sickened tourists all over the world at the end of 2019 so perhaps they don't care.

Some have made that claim but I'm not sure about it...at the end of 2019 and early 2020, all countries were unsure of the magnitude of what was happening. Since then, they have been very strict when it comes to the virus.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

First page of this thread. Just click the button 

Nope.

 

Maybe you have problems expressing yourself, but your prognosis is basically "if no mass testing, bad things will happen".

 

That gives you loads of wiggle room if this wave fades out over time. Nothing you post informs anyone about the future of this wave.

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

if this wave fades out over time

Good luck with that.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

Accusing him of being a troll is a defensive posture you are trying to take and thus trying to bait someone which is against forum rules.  You just do not seem to understand that obtaining all the data first and then analyzing it needs to be completed before one goes off half cocked and even tries to make an assessment as you do every day.  We have, and are asking, to see a more quantitative field of testing from all over in order to obtain the possibility of where we are going.  Instead the way it is being done leads them to be reactionary and continue on chasing cases instead of getting ahead of it.  You seem to think that a positivity rate of 5% is good and indicates the cases are slowing, when in reality they will keep on moving forward ad-infimum.  Unless they can get ahead of the issues, by testing in other areas as much as they are in known hotspots, that can not occur.

5% positivity denotes flat growth but a random walk, in terms of numbers of cases on a daily basis. That's what the data says.

 

If there is data that conflicts with that prognosis, I will change my prediction.

 

 

[Excel]

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

5% positivity denotes flat growth but a random walk, in terms of numbers of cases on a daily basis. That's what the data says.

 

If there is data that conflicts with that prognosis, I will change my prediction.

 

 

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html

[ElZorro]

On 5/7/2021 at 10:06 AM, dinsdale said:

not waiting for people to present at hospital when it's too late.

And asking those people (thais and foreigners) to pay for the test themselves

[Danderman123]

33 minutes ago, Excel said:

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html

From your link:

 

" As a rule of thumb, however, one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%. For example, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening. If we are successful in bringing coronavirus transmission under control, this threshold might be lowered over time. "

 

3.9% in Klong Toey yesterday in mass testing.

 

5% is the threshold, above that and there is growth, below that and the wave starts to fade. So, we are seeing positivity rates around 5%, which means that random daily fluctuations may be small increases or decreases in new cases, ie a random walk.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Danderman123

[Excel]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

From your link:

 

" As a rule of thumb, however, one threshold for the percent positive being “too high” is 5%. For example, the World Health Organization recommended in May that the percent positive remain below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening. If we are successful in bringing coronavirus transmission under control, this threshold might be lowered over time. "

 

3.9% in Klong Toey yesterday in mass testing.

 

5% is the threshold, above that and there is growth, below that and the wave starts to fade. So, we are seeing positivity rates around 5%, which means that random daily fluctuations may be small increases or decreases in new cases, ie a random walk.

 

 

Not too sure why you feel it neccesary to quote what was in the link but good to know you are finally understanding what positivity represents which based on latest figures is not flat linining as you appear obssesed about claiming at every opportunity. Up or down is not flat lining, is that really beyond you to comprehend ?  And also you will see from the reference it should be assessed over a 2 week period   something you appear unaware off based on you previous misleading, factually incorrect and false assumptions of your previous posts. 

Edited May 8, 2021 by Excel

[Fex Bluse]

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Some have made that claim but I'm not sure about it...at the end of 2019 and early 2020, all countries were unsure of the magnitude of what was happening. Since then, they have been very strict when it comes to the virus.

 

They were unsure because China was lying. They are still lying. It's been proven and admitted that they were working on a vaccine 2 weeks before they succumbed to pressure to admit the virus was human to human transmissible. 

 

Anyway, they will pay a price of armed conflict a generation growing up without fathers. 

 

Back to the topic. Wait, what were we talking about? 

[Bkk Brian]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

5% positivity denotes flat growth but a random walk, in terms of numbers of cases on a daily basis. That's what the data says.

 

If there is data that conflicts with that prognosis, I will change my prediction.

 

 

5% productivity rate denotes 5 people out of every 100 have the virus. Thats all.

 

It does not denote flat growth at all, please share you source for this wisdom?

 

Multiply the RO value of this variant to 5 people and see how many they can infect within a week.......................

[Danderman123]

27 minutes ago, Excel said:

Not too sure why you feel it neccesary to quote what was in the link but good to know you are finally understanding what positivity represents which based on latest figures is not flat linining as you appear obssesed about claiming at every opportunity. Up or down is not flat lining, is that really beyond you to comprehend ?  And also you will see from the reference it should be assessed over a 2 week period   something you appear unaware off based on you previous misleading, factually incorrect and false assumptions of your previous posts. 

I guess my background in statistical analysis is causing me to write about the numbers in a way you don't understand. 

 

Let me explain it a different way: if the daily numbers fluctuate in a range, but the average remains the same, that's a random with no growth. 

 

If there is fluctuation, but the average increases, then that's also a random walk, with growth. It means the positivity rate is increasing. 

 

If the daily numbers go up every day, so that the average increases, that's an indication of a positivity rate above 5% and is real bad news. 

[Surelynot]

1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

I guess my background in statistical analysis is causing me to write about the numbers in a way you don't understand. 

 

Let me explain it a different way: if the daily numbers fluctuate in a range, but the average remains the same, that's a random with no growth. 

 

If there is fluctuation, but the average increases, then that's also a random walk, with growth. It means the positivity rate is increasing. 

 

If the daily numbers go up every day, so that the average increases, that's an indication of a positivity rate above 5% and is real bad news. 

Ford 101 SPC is a good guide I guess.

[Danderman123]

17 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

5% productivity rate denotes 5 people out of every 100 have the virus. Thats all.

 

It does not denote flat growth at all, please share you source for this wisdom?

 

Multiply the RO value of this variant to 5 people and see how many they can infect within a week.......................

Maybe you try to provide information and/or analysis for the readers here, rather than simply trying to opine on every one of my posts. 

 

I am trying to explain why the current wave seems to be contained, and why the number of cases reported daily don't seem to be indicative of a catastrophe.  The Doomsayers alternate between claiming the epidemic is going out of control to saying that the authorities are lucky because the heat is stopping the epidemic. 

 

But no analysis of the situation, just assertions. Worthless to the readers here. 

 

[Swimfan]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Maybe you try to provide information and/or analysis for the readers here, rather than simply trying to opine on every one of my posts. 

 

I am trying to explain why the current wave seems to be contained, and why the number of cases reported daily don't seem to be indicative of a catastrophe.  The Doomsayers alternate between claiming the epidemic is going out of control to saying that the authorities are lucky because the heat is stopping the epidemic. 

 

But no analysis of the situation, just assertions. Worthless to the readers here. 

 

Show me accurate testing daily testing data and how long they are taking to turn around the tests. I have heard up to 4 days. 
given the lack of transparent data any so called positivity rate is just a stab in the dark 

[Surelynot]

6 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

am trying to explain why the current wave seems to be contained,

Yep...that looks contained to me...........

[Danderman123]

Just now, Surelynot said:

Yep...that looks contained to me...........

Deaths lag new infections by up to 3 weeks. Even if the epidemic stopped today, there will double digit fatalities per day into June. 

[Surelynot]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Deaths lag new infections by up to 3 weeks. Even if the epidemic stopped today, there will double digit fatalities per day into June. 

Well that has cheered me up no end......555