What's your best guess? When will bars re-open in Pattaya?

[Denim]

Best guess 2023.

 

But without any girls. Prostitution to be wound down to make Pattaya a family and sporting resort.

 

There will still be the Tiffany show etc for the returning Chinese but sex as a major attraction is finished.

 

Prayuth would like Thailand to shake of its seedy image and attract the better quality tourists .

[jacko45k]

31 minutes ago, Henryford said:

 

I don't think there will be many fully vaccinated tourists coming from July. Will the bars open up just for a handfull of tourists? I can't see the bars letting in vaccinated customers and turning away unvaccinated customers.

Perhaps they now need to get onto the UK's green list, since Portugal has been removed and Egypt, Costa Rica and Sri Lanka go red. We have a new strain...the Nepal one, due soon to join the Greek label I expect. It is a mutation of the Delta strain..... Indian one to you and I. 

[Leaver]

On 6/2/2021 at 2:11 PM, jacko45k said:

I live in Pattaya area...... what's a mailman?

 

A mailman is a little like the "Thai brother."  ????

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Leaver said:

 

A mailman is a little like the "Thai brother."  ????

Just the day I posted that some mail was in my box... one was from January!

[Johnny Mac]

16 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

My guess is they will open everything up again end of June, they will get complacent, another wave will hit and we'll be back in lockdown by the end of July.

 

Hope I am wrong but that is a rare occurrence.  

 

No I think you will be exactly right. As you say the bars will open in 2 weeks, then not long after that another wave will hit, then....by the end of July the country will lockdown again. I think you will be spot on with it all.

 

PS: Do you have this weeks lottery numbers, please?

[Leaver]

11 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

Just the day I posted that some mail was in my box... one was from January!

 

Just goes to show, good things come to those who wait in Thailand, even vaccines.  ????

[Poet]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

 

I don't think there will be many fully vaccinated tourists coming from July.

Well, six European countries are already issuing the EU vaccination certs, all of them should be doing it by mid-July, by which stage most European, UK, and Israeli citizens will be fully-vaccinated and certified. So, we might see a lot of Westerners arriving towards the end of July.
 

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

Will the bars open up just for a handfull of tourists?

Yes, the limited number of bars who are given special permission.
 

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

I can't see the bars letting in vaccinated customers and turning away unvaccinated customers.

Given an effective monopoly, the selected bars will be charging more than they have ever been able to before. They won't want to risk being closed down for breaking the rules.

Bear in mind, the government intends Phuket to be a test run. Re-opening the entire country hinges on that test run going well. A huge amount of money will be riding on this.

Once the re-opening spreads to other parts of the country, everything will loosen up again.

[paulikens]

17 hours ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

 

Hope I am wrong but that is a rare occurrence.

@Mr Meeseeks i think you do honestly think that as well. from all your previous posts I've read of yours. you definitely have a superiority complex.

[Henryford]

1 hour ago, Poet said:

Well, six European countries are already issuing the EU vaccination certs, all of them should be doing it by mid-July, by which stage most European, UK, and Israeli citizens will be fully-vaccinated and certified. So, we might see a lot of Westerners arriving towards the end of July.
 

Yes, the limited number of bars who are given special permission.
 

Given an effective monopoly, the selected bars will be charging more than they have ever been able to before. They won't want to risk being closed down for breaking the rules.

Bear in mind, the government intends Phuket to be a test run. Re-opening the entire country hinges on that test run going well. A huge amount of money will be riding on this.

Once the re-opening spreads to other parts of the country, everything will loosen up again.

 

As far as the UK is concerned Thailand is on their Amber list so not easy for anyone to visit, even if they wanted to.

[Mr Meeseeks]

11 minutes ago, paulikens said:

@Mr Meeseeks i think you do honestly think that as well. from all your previous posts I've read of yours. you definitely have a superiority complex.

Edited June 4, 2021 by Mr Meeseeks

[Fex Bluse]

And educated guess would have to expect that there will be several more major outbreaks to include new variants of concern.

 

Anyway, I think what the OP is asking is not "when is the next time the bars will open?" but rather "when will life be back to normal for an extended period, with bars remaining open?".

 

My uneducated guess is that it is a minimum of 2 years off.

[thaibeachlovers]

18 hours ago, pomchop said:

so i guess my neighbor telling me in person about all his families covid problems is "assuming much"....i "assume" he likely has more facts about his situation than a keyboard warrior in thailand....ok IN MY OPINION if that will satisfy your oh so high standards of "proof".

but he hasn't proven that the man in question infected them. It's just his opinion, which you are repeating.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, Poet said:

So, we might see a lot of Westerners arriving towards the end of July.

Perhaps you can explain why you think the first place thousands of Europeans will travel to is Thailand? They were abandoning the place prior to corona, and I doubt it's got any better since.

 

Anyway, it depends on a lot of things other than a desire to visit Thailand, including air travel prices.

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, Denim said:

Best guess 2023.

 

But without any girls. Prostitution to be wound down to make Pattaya a family and sporting resort.

 

There will still be the Tiffany show etc for the returning Chinese but sex as a major attraction is finished.

 

Prayuth would like Thailand to shake of its seedy image and attract the better quality tourists .

LOL.

Even if they did close every farang bar in Pattaya, which they won't/ can't do, the freelancers will still be around, whether on line or not, and the Thai places will still be open and they don't care who pays.

 

the better quality tourists .

55555555555555555

[Leaver]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Even if they did close every farang bar in Pattaya, which they won't/ can't do,

 

Depends who you mean by "they."   If you mean the police, then I agree, that won't happen.  If you mean the owners of the bars, that's definitely on the cards, as we have just seen with Retox Game On.   

[elliss]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL.

 freelancers will still be around, whether on line or not, and the Thai 

 On Line , dare i call it prostitution .. 

  Is easier , and less exspensive . 

  You are arrange to meet you desired lady ,

    in her appartment / or hotel room ..

     K1 , in and out , within an hour ..

    No crazy price , Lady drink / bar fine ..

[Poet]

9 hours ago, Henryford said:

 

As far as the UK is concerned Thailand is on their Amber list so not easy for anyone to visit, even if they wanted to.

By July, quarantine is unlikely to apply to those entering the UK who are fully-vaccinated, regardless of which country they are coming from.

Many countries have already dropped quarantine requirements for the fully-vaccinated, because there is no credible biological argument for it.

The EU has made clear that their certification system is intended to eliminate the need to quarantine.

The situation in the UK is up in the air because a highly-vocal minority have somehow got it into their heads that vaccine passports are a bad thing.

It is clear, however, that the UK government fully intends to introduce vaccine passports. In fact, they have already worked the system out and paid for it. Being rather supine, however, they are waiting for the public to start demanding them. It is almost certain that any UK system will settle upon the same rules as the EU system.
 

[Poet]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Perhaps you can explain why you think the first place thousands of Europeans will travel to is Thailand? They were abandoning the place prior to corona, and I doubt it's got any better since.

The backlogged demand to visit Thailand is not a matter of what I think. Every survey in European countries suggests that foreign travel is high on the list of post-pandemic plans, and Thailand is the most-mentioned destination.

After almost a year and a half of extreme restrictions, people have paid off their credit cards and are bored. They want to make up for lost time and embrace the world. Regardless of whether or not we think it is a good idea, that is what people are determined to do.

 

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Anyway, it depends on a lot of things other than a desire to visit Thailand, including air travel prices.

You massively underestimate just how bored and fed up people are. They have money in their pockets and they are going to spend it. In Thailand, if Thailand is smart enough to let them.

 

[Leaver]

On 6/4/2021 at 8:43 AM, Poet said:

Well, six European countries are already issuing the EU vaccination certs, all of them should be doing it by mid-July, by which stage most European, UK, and Israeli citizens will be fully-vaccinated and certified. So, we might see a lot of Westerners arriving towards the end of July.

 

Wrong.

 

You can still catch covid and still spread covid, despite being vaccinated.  

 

Around 65% of Thai's will need to be fully vaccinated before Thailand can safely open the borders, and that's not going to happen by the end of July without quarantine and testing, which means no tourism.  

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Leaver

[Poet]

On 6/4/2021 at 2:43 AM, Poet said:

Well, six European countries are already issuing the EU vaccination certs, all of them should be doing it by mid-July, by which stage most European, UK, and Israeli citizens will be fully-vaccinated and certified. So, we might see a lot of Westerners arriving towards the end of July.

 

9 hours ago, Leaver said:

Wrong.

 

You can still catch covid and still spread covid, despite being vaccinated.

No idea how that is relevant to the sentence you quoted but, okay, we may as well address this old chestnut because quite a few people on this forum are not good with numbers.

My repeated point has been that only a negligible biological threat is posed by people who have completed the entire course of an effective Western vaccine, have waited the necessary week or two weeks to achieve best possible protection, and who are traveling from countries that have reached the "Zero Covid" level defined by South Korea and Singapore: less than 100 active cases per million of population.

Israel, being a couple of months ahead, gives us a preview of what happens once you have fully-vaccinated 60% of your population with Pfizer: active cases drop below the "Zero Covid" level.

The US is at 42% fully-vaccinated (mostly Pfizer), the UK is at 40% (mostly AstraZeneca) and the EU is at 20% (mostly Pfizer). All of these countries will, over the coming months, catch up with where Israel is now.

We now know, from closely following the progress of tens of millions of people, that the effective Western vaccines are not only 100% successful in their primary goal of preventing hospitalization from Covid but, also, reduce your chance of contracting it, from a particular exposure, by 50%. If you do contract it, your transmissability (ability to pass it to others by producing the virus in sufficient volume) is reduced by 66%.

These numbers are why the number of active cases fall so dramatically as the number of vaccinated or naturally immune people increases. The virus is unable to jump as easily from node to node and ends up burning out in a dead-end.

So, yes, a fully-vaccinated person can still catch Covid (although his individual ability to catch it is more than halved), and he can still transmit it (although, again, his ability to transmit is reduced by two-thirds), but the kicker is that, by July, they will be traveling from countries that, thanks to vaccination and natural immunity (through past infection), will have negligible active case levels. Once a country falls below 100 per million, there is very little chance that anyone traveling from that country to Thailand will have had a sufficient exposure to an infected person, over the previous two weeks, to bring it with them.

There are thousands of diseases, and a certain level of biological risk is inherent in any movement of humans, but it is important to control our hysteria and think rationally about about the relative risk is. A planeload of fully-vaccinated passengers and crews presents roughly the same risk as a planeload before Covid-19 existed: not quite zero, but close enough.

 

[Poet]

10 hours ago, Leaver said:

Around 65% of Thai's will need to be fully vaccinated before Thailand can safely open the borders, and that's not going to happen by the end of July without quarantine and testing, which means no tourism.  

The phrase "Safely open the borders" shows how unaware you are of the physical realities of Thailand.

Thailand has almost 5,000 KM of land borders with far poorer countries where the virus is raging. Those borders are almost completely uncontrolled and there is massive illegal movement across them every day.

All the outbreaks so far, every single one of them, has stemmed from those neighboring countries.

Fully-vaccinated Westerners arriving on planes will not lead to even one outbreak. That is the simple reality.

[Leaver]

7 minutes ago, Poet said:

So, yes, a fully-vaccinated person can still catch Covid

 

True.

 

7 minutes ago, Poet said:

and he can still transmit it

 

True.

 

This is why 65% of Thai people have to be vaccinated before borders can open here.

[Leaver]

5 minutes ago, Poet said:

The phrase "Safely open the borders" shows how unaware you are of the physical realities of Thailand.

Thailand has almost 5,000 KM of land borders with far poorer countries where the virus is raging. Those borders are almost completely uncontrolled and there is massive illegal movement across them every day.

All the outbreaks so far, every single one of them, has stemmed from those neighboring countries.

Fully-vaccinated Westerners arriving on planes will not lead to even one outbreak. That is the simple reality.

 

Your post simply points out why foreign countries will not allow their citizens to travel to Thailand for a holiday.  

 

Until Thai's are vaccinated, which protects the population from covid, not mater where it enters from, western governments will not allow their citizens to come to Thailand for a holiday.  

[Poet]

20 minutes ago, Leaver said:

True.

This is why 65% of Thai people have to be vaccinated before borders can open here.

Serious question: What is the point of wasting time on discussion if, instead of taking onboard nuance, you instantly distort what is said so that you can "win" the argument?

You know that the words you quoted were making the point that reduced susceptibility + reduced transmission + reduced exposure all add up to negligible risk and, yet, you strip them of that context.

Surely this only shortchanges you and your understanding of the world.
 

 

15 minutes ago, Leaver said:

Until Thai's are vaccinated, which protects the population from covid, not mater where it enters from, western governments will not allow their citizens to come to Thailand for a holiday.  

Now you are changing your argument.

Up until now you have been talking about Thailand not re-opening.

Now you have switched to saying that Western governments will not allow their citizens to come to Thailand.

That is already wrong. All Western governments, even Australia, allow their citizens to travel.

Many have also indicated that, once the vaccine passport systems are in place, them will allow the fully-vaccinated to skip quarantine upon their return. This is an acknowledgement that vaccination sufficiently reduces the risks on every level.

What this thread is about, however, is Thailand. So, all these hysterical claims that "Thailand cannot re-open until X number of the Thai population are vaccinated" (something that may never happen) are not only incorrect and misleading but, also, irrelevant.

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Poet

[Leaver]

2 minutes ago, Poet said:

Serious question: What is the point of wasting time on discussion if, instead of taking onboard nuance, you instantly distort what is said so that you can "win" the argument?

 

No argument to "win."

 

The fact is, around 65% of Thai's will have to be fully vaccinated before borders can safely open.

 

Sure, Thailand can open the borders tomorrow, but that doesn't mean it's safe to come here, and that doesn't mean it's safe for the Thai's for people come here.

 

6 minutes ago, Poet said:

Now you are changing your argument.

 

I was never "arguing" in the first place.  Merely pointing out what is globally accepted as safe numbers.

 

7 minutes ago, Poet said:

Up until now you have been talking about Thailand re-opening.

 

Isn't that what the OP digressed to?

 

8 minutes ago, Poet said:

Now you have switched to saying that Western governments will not allow their citizens to come to Thailand.

 

Isn't it about tourism? 

 

No point Thailand opening borders if other countries will not allow their citizens to come here.

 

Due to legal reasons, many countries may allow their citizens to travel abroad, but will impose 2 weeks quarantine upon return.  This means no holidays to Thailand.

 

11 minutes ago, Poet said:

That is already wrong. All Western governments, even Australia, allow their citizens to travel.

 

Rubbish.

 

12 minutes ago, Poet said:

Many have also indicated that, once the vaccine passport systems are in place, them will allow the fully-vaccinated to skip quarantine upon their return. This is an acknowledgement that vaccination sufficiently reduces the risks on every level.

 

Link please?

 

What countries will they be traveling to?     

  

[Maha Sarakham]

The era of the beer bar is finished.  Everything was moving online even before covid, this just hastened the rate of change.

[Poet]

18 minutes ago, Leaver said:

The fact is, around 65% of Thai's will have to be fully vaccinated before borders can safely open.

Again: Almost 5,000 KM of uncontrolled land borders with some of the poorest, most Covid-ravaged countries in the world.

The idea that the borders are closed is comical.

What has been closed is their biggest industry. We are now discovering that the Farang spend was keeping afloat more families and more areas of the kingdom than was ever previously admitted.

The cost of this charade, pretending that the danger comes from fully-vaccinated Westerners, is going to destroy lives and, with rising crime, tear apart the social cohesian that Thailand relies upon.

Thailand has missed the vaccination boat. They needed to be making these orders 8 months ago. It is highly unlikely that they will ever reach anything close to 65%.

What will happen is that they will vaccinate the most vulnerable 10%, along with the generals and their families. Thais with money are already getting their shots abroad, and more will buy them privately within Thailand once that is possible.

The vast majority of Thais who come into contact with tourists will remain unvaccinated. Eventually, they will get Covid from their Burmese co-workers. They will be sick for a week, and then they will be fine.
 
You believe what you want to believe, but it astonishes me that anyone sufficiently competent to type could so completely misinterpret reality.

 

Edited June 5, 2021 by Poet

[Leaver]

2 minutes ago, Poet said:

Again: Almost 5,000 KM of uncontrolled land borders with some of the poorest, most Covid-ravaged countries in the world.

The idea that the borders are closed is comical.

What has been closed is their biggest industry. We are now discovering that the Farang spend was keeping afloat more families and more areas of the kingdom than was ever previously admitted.

The cost of this charade, pretending that the danger comes from fully-vaccinated Westerners, is going to destroy lives and, with rising crime, tear apart the social cohesian that Thailand relies upon.

You believe what you want to believe, but it astonishes me that anyone sufficiently competent to type could so completely misinterpret reality.

 

 

A rather strange post.

 

Does it matter how many kms of land borders Thailand has, if 65% of Thai's are fully vaccinated?  Vaccinated means vaccinated, and safe means safe, whether people fly in, or get a bus in.

 

You keep banging on about land borders.  What's your point on that? 

 

Are you suggesting foreigners who are vaccinated should be allowed to travel to Thailand, despite only 2% of Thai's being vaccinated?    

[The Hammer2021]

On 5/18/2021 at 9:38 PM, cclub75 said:

There is only one card left for the "Zero Covid" cult.

 

Vaccination.

 

So we need a few more months... in order to achieve a large campaign... let's say december.

 

Then it will be clear that... it's absolutely not a game changer : "Covid cases" will continue to popup.

 

At that point, the backslash from the population will be powerfull.

 

1 year and a half without nothing, no work, no money... All those sacrifices for... nothing.

 

The gvt will then be forced to change its course and to abandon the "Zero Covid" ideology.

 

Therefore : full opening january 2022.

 

Until then, the forecast is easy : stop and go, confusion, flip-flopping etc.

There is no Zero Covid Policy. There is in Australia but not in Thailand

[Hyna]

2 hours ago, Poet said:

They will be sick for a week, and then they will be fine.

Covid is a bit worse than this. 

After 18 month,  you still pretend it's just a "fluzinha" (Bolsonaro's famous word).

It can still ravage Thailand.  And it will,  if only 10% are vaccinated. Why should it "ravage" (your word) Burma and Cambodia,  but in Thailand it's just "sick for a week"?

 

Unfortunately,  the rest of your analysis is quite correct.