Will tourism reopenings and more stimulus be enough to kick-start Thailand’s post-pandemic economic recovery?

[webfact]

The Siam Paragon shopping mall in Bangkok, Thailand, is mostly empty of customers on a May night. Photo: Bloomberg

 

● The IMF has predicted GDP growth of 2.6 per cent for the kingdom this year, but expects the road forward to be sluggish and uneven

 

● As Thailand’s third wave drags on amid a sputtering vaccination programme, experts and observers are uncertain what will drive growth

 

Jitsiree Thongnoi in Bangkok

 

Last week Thaisho, a small bar in Bangkok, got rid of its tables, chairs, glasses and cutlery, and closed its doors for good.

 

Thailand’s third wave of Covid-19 has dragged into a third month, with no signs of slowing down, and the bar and restaurant sector has taken yet another hit because of social distancing measures. Thaisho, which has been operating for three years, was able to cope with last year’s lockdown in the capital, but the prospects are too bleak this time around.

 

“There is no way to foresee how our business can return,” said owner Em, 31. “There is not a single relief measure from the government for our business, which means they don’t think we are important. They don’t think that without us, market vendors and employees will bear the brunt [of the financial impact].”

 

There was also uncertainty about when customers would be able to come back, she said, due to the slow roll-out of the country’s vaccination programme. “Everything is blurring. We don’t know when Thailand will reach herd immunity. We didn’t try to ask for a loan to keep our business afloat because there’s no prospects for anything.”

 

Full story: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3137020/will-tourism-reopenings-and-more-stimulus-be-enough-kick-start

 

-- © Copyright South China Morning Post 2021-06-15

 

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[Fex Bluse]

Will tourism reopenings and more stimulus be enough to kick-start Thailand’s post-pandemic economic recovery?

 

Answer: No. Very few tourists will come. Long-term people will come to reunite with family but not many genuine tourists. Next idea, please. 

 

[Lumbini]

If we knew how many actual new cases there are daily and there was enough testing we would know what the future may hold but possibly too much is behind the country as things always are and this time the Thai way will cause the country to pay high price .  So many are not just closing businesses but loosing their business’s and no longer employing so many .

[bkk6060]

The stimulus is so minimal, if in fact it ever gets delivered.

All the COE requirements and 2 week semi quarantine ideas will not bring many tourists more options in the world then here.

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

“There is no way to foresee how our business can return,” said owner Em, 31. “There is not a single relief measure from the government for our business, which means they don’t think we are important. They don’t think that without us, market vendors and employees will bear the brunt [of the financial impact].”

So change the regime at the ballot box... or start an online petition to remove the problem

 

[Pedrogaz]

AS others have said the answer is no. Yet the incompetence goes on and is rewarded. There is so much corruption in Thailand that I suspect much of these stimuli get stolen or given in bribes to the already obscenely wealthy

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The IMF has predicted GDP growth of 2.6 per cent for the kingdom this year, but expects the road forward to be sluggish and uneven

As the Beatles sang its "The Long and winding road"

[ozz1]

no one is going to come while  covid is running so high only people with families will come and with their flipfloping no one wants to come  they are idiots

[poskat]

My office is across the street from paragon, so I am in there often. each week longer and longer sections of what used to be stores/restaurants are now just boarded up.

 

Last week, I noticed that on the weekdays, KFC and Burger King were both shut, only open on weekends...

 

the same is true in MBK....

 

the typical government mismanagement of the economy by buying submarines et al. used to be comical.

 

Their current inaction with dealing w/ covid and its economic impact have crossed the line into crimminal

[Misterwhisper]

I've got a great idea:

 

Why don't we "lure" a million digital nomads, each of whom earns at least $80,000 a year AND is willing to invest half a million $ in Thai government bonds. In return they won't need a work permit, pay "only" 17% income tax, and can own a speck of land.

 

See? Problem solved. It can be all so easy.

Edited June 15, 2021 by Misterwhisper

[Lemonltr]

Even Phuket bars etc are closed and the only plus is the beaches. The Mediterranean and USA resorts are open. 

No need to contact embassy. 

No copies of documents to apply for certificate of entry. 

No ASQ and showing of advance booking

No expensive covid Insurance. 

Why would a western tourist jump these hurdles? 

 

[atpeace]

Very little doubt and let me emphasize little, the tourism industry will rebound after the country is mostly vaccinated by year's end.  Have no clue if it will be in time to have a large impact on the upcoming tourist season.  Next one will most likely be over the top insane like it was pre-pandemic.  Wish this wasn't the case but have no choice to live with it.

 

Many seem to dream of Thailand's tourism demise since the as far back as I can remember but reality seems to not care.  I dream of busy seasons of 20 years ago and not the mass tourism that has replaced it.

[connda]

New Normal is the destruction of all bars and entertainment venues as well as a large segment of small and medium businesses.

New Normal is the destruction of the tourism sector with the exception of boutique tours for the wealthy.

New Normal is masks, social distancing, restrictions on travel, and vaccine passports.

New Normal is regional vaccination centers tasked with distributing mandated booster vaccinations to all residents of Thailand who will be required to report for booster vaccinations every 6 to 12 months in order to renew their vaccine passports.

New Normal will be prison-like factory setting where employees must remain on premise as a condition of employment as to make sure that "variants" do not cause a slowdown of production.

New Normal will bring new wealth for the wealthy and poverty and despair for the commoners as their means for making a living are shattered and wealth is redistributed from the Old Normal small/medium business merchant class to the corporate Big-Box and online mega retailers.

New Normal will make Old Normal look like paradise as there will be no returning to Old Normal.

Edited June 15, 2021 by connda

[johng]

4 minutes ago, connda said:

New Normal will make Old Normal look like paradise as there will be no returning to Old Normal.

 

I really hope you are wrong  but fear you are very right...     I'll be saying  sod "new normal"  for as long as possible.

[brucegoniners]

No...

[connda]

1 hour ago, Lemonltr said:

Even Phuket bars etc are closed and the only plus is the beaches. The Mediterranean and USA resorts are open. 

No need to contact embassy. 

No copies of documents to apply for certificate of entry. 

No ASQ and showing of advance booking

No expensive covid Insurance. 

Why would a western tourist jump these hurdles? 

 

Why would a western tourist jump these hurdles? 

Let me take a shot at that:
Because Thailand and Thai people and Thai culture are absolutely the best in the world unmatched by any other place or people and the rest of the world desperately wants to come to Prathet Thai and worship at the feet of such an amazing and exceptional nation?
Am I close?

[atpeace]

1 hour ago, scorecard said:

 

Further, the world nowadays, compared to 100 years ago, is much more engrossed with capitalism,  wealth and greed, to the point where, for any situation, the first/major critical point is money / how whatever money is available will be split. 

 

And let's face it the wealthy have more means to get into that available money; the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. 

or the rich get richer and they drag the the poor kicking and screaming along so they can complain about getting screwed.  Really don't have much choice do they.  It is not as if the masses might look in the mirror.  Most of this was in jest but really think the world is made of those that complain vs. those that have fun and some even get rich.

 

The world 100 years ago was far more violent and just as greedy.  You have created an illusion that is far from reality.

 

What was this thread about ????

[Joseph98765]

5 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

As the Beatles sang its "The Long and winding road"

Prayut lives in a Yellow Submarine, a yellow submarine...

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed,  this topic is not about US politics. 

[JonnyF]

The glory days are over. The laid back Thailand of the 90s is long gone.

 

Junta and alcohol bans dont sell. Neither does quarantine and electronic tagging. Or boarded up shops and bars. Or scams and racist ranting health ministers. Or childish insults hiding behind fake smiles.

 

Covid might be the kick in the nuts that Thai tourism needed. But it wont be a quick fix. 

 

 

[bermondburi]

Whatever will be will be.

[Albert Zweistein]

12 hours ago, connda said:

Why would a western tourist jump these hurdles? 

Let me take a shot at that:
Because Thailand and Thai people and Thai culture are absolutely the best in the world unmatched by any other place or people and the rest of the world desperately wants to come to Prathet Thai and worship at the feet of such an amazing and exceptional nation?
Am I close?

On Chang again ?

[sammieuk1]

The IMF must just look at the rising baht for their predictions ????

[Blumpie]

Many of these news stories about tourism rebounding are to pander to the blissfully ignorant, or to pad what the reality is.  It's not really meant for westerners but for Thais.

They know there will be no rebound.  I know it.  Dogs know it.  There will be no, I repeat no mass tourism or tourism period from international sources until there is widespread vaccines not only available but in the arms of the general public.  That is a tremendous undertaking - be absolutely certain of it - logistically which Thailand hasn't even figured out yet.  

These silly news blurbs about three million doses arriving, bla bla bla really don't put much of a dent in what's happening.  Even if they all magically went into arms immediately (which is impossible) it's a month before full immunity is attained by two shots.  And now with the delta variant, you need TWO shots not just one.

Look for tourism in the latter half of 2022 at the very very very earliest.  Absolutely no tourism in 2021 and the beginning of 2022 in any meaningful way.  

[Blumpie]

7 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

The IMF must just look at the rising baht for their predictions ????

If you are upset about the high bhat, look no further than the USA who put thailand on the currency manipulation watchlist.  That was keeping the bhat low not high.  

You can call whoever is in charge there and complain if you want to.  

[Soikhaonoiken]

Easy Answer...... NO 

[adammike]

16 hours ago, Lemonltr said:

Even Phuket bars etc are closed and the only plus is the beaches. The Mediterranean and USA resorts are open. 

No need to contact embassy. 

No copies of documents to apply for certificate of entry. 

No ASQ and showing of advance booking

No expensive covid Insurance. 

Why would a western tourist jump these hurdles? 

 

I don't know about US resorts but nearly all EU countries require proof of vaccination and a negative test,there is some quarantine as well.Here in the Netherlands the media are reporting that masks will not be needed from next week.The infection rate is dropping fast except for 16-24 year olds,that's rising fast mainly with those returning from Spain, Portugal and one other country I think it was Greece.Dont hold your breath expecting things to get back to normal any time soon.

 

[adammike]

14 hours ago, connda said:

Why would a western tourist jump these hurdles? 

Let me take a shot at that:
Because Thailand and Thai people and Thai culture are absolutely the best in the world unmatched by any other place or people and the rest of the world desperately wants to come to Prathet Thai and worship at the feet of such an amazing and exceptional nation?
Am I close?

How dare you! The post Brexit Brits are the best.Whats culture?

[Blumpie]

4 hours ago, adammike said:

I don't know about US resorts but nearly all EU countries require proof of vaccination and a negative test,there is some quarantine as well.Here in the Netherlands the media are reporting that masks will not be needed from next week.The infection rate is dropping fast except for 16-24 year olds,that's rising fast mainly with those returning from Spain, Portugal and one other country I think it was Greece.Dont hold your breath expecting things to get back to normal any time soon.

 

It doesn't really matter if the virus is getting out of control in the country that you are "vacationing" to.

Thailand has some serious serious problems right now with this virus and egg is all over their faces and it is truly unfortunate.  The government gambled that it would just burn out but that didn't happen.  

This is an entirely different animal.  

Can you imagine?  Coming for a vacation and they are getting people to sleep on cardboard beds in field hospitals?  I mean who can make this **** up?  

[drenddy]

4 hours ago, adammike said:

I don't know about US resorts but nearly all EU countries require proof of vaccination and a negative test,there is some quarantine as well.Here in the Netherlands the media are reporting that masks will not be needed from next week.The infection rate is dropping fast except for 16-24 year olds,that's rising fast mainly with those returning from Spain, Portugal and one other country I think it was Greece.Dont hold your breath expecting things to get back to normal any time soon.

 

 

For a european traveller, Spain/Italy clearly is a far better option than Thailand.Greece, as well, though I don't know their rules, but these might not be much different than others in Europe, I think.

 

In Spain/Italy you can enter, as tourist, even if you are not fully vaccinated or have gone through coronavirus before.You will need a negative coronatest, taken up to 72 hours before arriving.

 

Then you need the Passenger Locator Form ( is required in all EU countries, I think), which is easy to fill in.

 

And, at arrival. you must notify the local health authorities.

 

As a sidenote, the region of Andalucia offers free health and travel insurance to all travellers.What they need to do is to stay at a recognized tourist location.That's all, in case of infection, sickness, isolation as close contact, costs will be covered.Have to say, though, that EU travellers are covered through their european blue card anyway, but this card does not cover extra lodging, in case of close contact to a confirmed positive test(you will be required to go into isolation) and, most likely, many travellers will have their own insurances.But just the idea of welcoming tourists.

 

 

Edited June 16, 2021 by drenddy