2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

With the numbers now at this level it appears that the Delta Variant is taking hold.  Last night from the Balcony, I watched as the freeway was loaded up with cars heading out of Bangkok.  Today the streets are nearly empty and the park near us which normally has folks in it on a Saturday morning is nearly empty as well.  Looks like the Bangkok spread outwards will become a further reality.

I shouldn’t be surprised if a number of people don’t head to Phuket. It’s maybe the safest place in Thailand right now.

 

on the other hand, if you live here, and haven’t had a jab yet, I think you have to say good bye to any hope of getting one. Now that the tourist is taken care of with bogus vaccination numbers, there is  no incentive for the authorities to vaccinate anyone else on the island.
 

Rightly so in some respects, Phuket has had more than its fair share of vaccine supplies already, but if you are here and over 60, or at risk due to underlying conditions, how do you get vaccinated if they now exclude the island from future supplies?

1 minute ago, dinsdale said:

I think I heard that in the UK the Delta % is doubling every 2 wks.

 

Could well be, the UK curve is rising rapidly.

 

People forget that 62% more transmissible means R0 is 1.62 time bigger. That's the exponential thing.

An off topic post and replies have been removed.

 

A chart with no source attribution has been removed.

11 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Could well be, the UK curve is rising rapidly.

 

People forget that 62% more transmissible means R0 is 1.62 time bigger. That's the exponential thing.

 

 

"The Delta variant, which was first identified in India, is worrisome because it is highly contagious and spreading rapidly around the globe. Unvaccinated people who are infected with Delta are twice as likely to be hospitalized as those infected with Alpha, the dominant variant in the United States that was first detected in Britain.

 

What has been surprising about the Delta variant is how easily it seems to be transmitted. In Australia, security cameras documented a brief encounter of two people passing each other in a shopping mall; one of them was unknowingly infected. The shoppers were facing each other at one point and breathed each other’s air for only seconds, which led to the second person getting infected. (The transmission was confirmed through genetic sequencing.) 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/well/live/delta-variant-vaccines-masks.html

 

2 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Should have also mentioned today's numbers will put Thailand around number 15 or 16 for new infections globally so well in the top 20. Yes we all know that many countries under report due to lack of testing but I'm just going on official figures charted by worldometer.

We also know that Thailand under reports due to lack of testing.

I don't find much info on how the Sinovac vaccine fares against the Delta variant... But the AZ vaccine seems to do OK, but considerably less than the Pfizer vaccine, which remains absent from Thailand:

 

"A study by the University of Oxford, released in Cell, demonstrates that currently available vaccines, including AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, will provide protection against the  Delta (B.1.617.2) and Kappa (B1.617.1) variants; formerly the ‘Indian’ variants.1 The study investigated the ability of monoclonal antibodies in sera from recovered people, and sera from vaccinated people to neutralise the Delta and Kappa variants. 1

 

Neutralisation against the Delta and Kappa variants was comparable with that seen against the Alpha (B.1.1.7; formerly ‘Kent’) and Gamma (P.1; formerly ‘Brazilian’) variants, with no evidence of widespread antibody escape as seen with the Beta (B.1.351; formerly South Africa) variant. 1 This may provide an initial indication that similar levels of protection could be achieved in the real-world setting...

 

These results build on the recent analysis by Public Health England showing early evidence of real-world data that two doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine are effective against the Delta variant, with similar levels of protection achieved as those seen against the Alpha  variant.3"

 

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/articles/2021/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-shows-effectiveness-against-indian-variants-of-sars-cov-2-virus.html

 

And separately, Reuters reported re the Delta variant that the AZ vaccine was, while effective, alsosignificantly less effective than its Pfizer counterpart:

 

"A study by Public Health England (PHE) found in May the Pfizer (PFE.N)-BioNTech (22UAy.DE) vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta two weeks after the second dose.

That compared with 93% effectiveness against the Alpha variant, first identified in Britain.

 

Two doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta compared with 66% effectiveness against the Alpha, PHE said."

 

But regarding Sinovac:

 

"DO CHINESE VACCINES WORK AGAINST DELTA?

 

China has not provided vaccine effectiveness results against the variant based on large-scale data in clinical trials or real-world use, nor offered detailed information from lab tests, but Chinese experts are urging people to get inoculated as soon as possible.

 

The lack of detailed data on the Chinese vaccines against the Delta has hobbled any meaningful peer reviews by foreign experts.

,,,

Indonesia, which has reported record daily cases recently due to a surge in the Delta variant, saw hundreds of medical workers infected by the COVID-19 despite being vaccinated with Sinovac's shot, officials said earlier this month.

It was not immediately clear, however, if the Indonesian medical workers were infected by the Delta variant."

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/are-chinese-covid-19-shots-effective-against-delta-variant-2021-06-29/

 

 

Just wondering if the tourist arriving in Phuket appreciate the amount of vaccines being denied to the vulnerable and who are now dying so they can enjoy themselves, seems kind of selfishly grotesque if you ask me.How people can tolerate such obscene conduct is just perverse.People are dying so the rich can have a holiday? 

31 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Not sure Israel's situation does much good for Thailand.

I was replying to someone else's misrepresentation of the Delta situation in Israel.

5 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

We also know that Thailand under reports due to lack of testing.

Thailand is most definitely included. Very poor testing levels from the very beginning. Even when Thailand and many on here were saying how great Thailand was going it was clear that numbers were higher. A simple formula that Thailand doesn't do is test high to find high numbers so as you can bring the numbers down by intervention. Thailand is test low and ignore comminity spread and intervention. Just testing the so-called clusters in workers camps completely ignores virul spread.

20 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

China has not provided vaccine effectiveness results against the variant based on large-scale data in clinical trials or real-world use, nor offered detailed information from lab tests, but Chinese experts are urging people to get inoculated as soon as possible.

Has there ever been a more recalcitrant country than China. (Nth Korea doesn't count). 

They should be sharing any information that they can provide. 

Complete disarray mounts on prioritizing the few vaccines that are available:

 

Experts at a Health Ministry briefing on Friday painted a grim picture of how to prioritize who gets vaccinated.

 

He said 80% of the deaths are among the elderly and people with chronic diseases, and if they are vaccinated it could significantly reduce the death rate while also lowering the demand for ICU beds. Around 10% of elderly and infirm patients die, while the rate for those age 20-40 is less than 0.1%, he said.

 

But at the same time, significant outbreaks are occurring among other groups, including people in construction worker camps and restaurant workers, who also need to be vaccinated, he said.

“We currently have closed the camps and businesses, but the number of cases is not declining and the economy is bad. But if we focus on old people and those who have chronic diseases, we might not have to shut down the businesses and the bed demands from these two groups will also decline,” Kamnuan said.

 

 

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2021/07/03/virus-surge-prompts-concern-over-icus-vaccine-supply/

Bravo Thailand!!!

 

Phuket is reopening to foreign tourists with 56+% of its local population having been fully vaccinated (albeit largely with Sinovac). But meanwhile around the country....

 

"Sopon Mekthon, chairman of the government’s subcommittee on COVID-19 vaccine management, said only 2 million of about 16 million old and infirm people have received vaccines." [i.e., about 12% of that population]

 

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2021/07/03/virus-surge-prompts-concern-over-icus-vaccine-supply/

 

 

 

36 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

"DO CHINESE VACCINES WORK AGAINST DELTA?

The old Jack Benny line was, when Jack was held up by a thief who said "Your money or your life!", Jack replied:

 

I'm thinking it over.

 

The consensus is that all the major vaccines will work better against Delta than Sinovac. But it most cases, there is no choice. You use what you got and why spend a lot of time on analyzing what you don't got.

 

Nobody is asking those in the Klong Toei slums 'Would you rather have Sinovac or Pfizer?'

3 hours ago, smedly said:

ooops

 

some details would be helpful

 

 

why is Bangkok not locked down with travel restrictions imposed to other provinces, pretty sure there will be many flocking to Chonburi this weekend mostly to Ban Saen Pattaya and Rayong

Some details have just been published, there's a list of 17 different area's/categories where the infections occurred in Chonburi, can't list them all here as its over the fair use policy but interesting that:

 

#15 is Close contacts of previously confirmed patients: 77 family members and 40 co-workers. 

#4 is Medical staffers 4 cases

 

https://thepattayanews.com/2021/07/03/chonburi-annouces-294-new-and-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-new-cluster-at-banglamung-area-ice-factory/

13 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Bravo Thailand!!!

 

Phuket is reopening to foreign tourists with 56+% of its local population having been fully vaccinated (albeit largely with Sinovac). But meanwhile around the country....

 

"Sopon Mekthon, chairman of the government’s subcommittee on COVID-19 vaccine management, said only 2 million of about 16 million old and infirm people have received vaccines." [i.e., about 12% of that population]

 

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2021/07/03/virus-surge-prompts-concern-over-icus-vaccine-supply/

 

The SAfrican_beta variant will tear right through that 56% of vaccinated people  as if they were not vaccinated.

 

It appears that mixing AstraZeneca with an mRNA vaccine may be beneficial.  I hope so.  https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/02/health/germany-covid-vaccines-mixing-intl/index.html

48 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I don't find much info on how the Sinovac vaccine fares against the Delta variant... But the AZ vaccine seems to do OK, but considerably less than the Pfizer vaccine, which remains absent from Thailand:

 

"A study by the University of Oxford, released in Cell, demonstrates that currently available vaccines, including AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, will provide protection against the  Delta (B.1.617.2) and Kappa (B1.617.1) variants; formerly the ‘Indian’ variants.1 The study investigated the ability of monoclonal antibodies in sera from recovered people, and sera from vaccinated people to neutralise the Delta and Kappa variants. 1

 

Neutralisation against the Delta and Kappa variants was comparable with that seen against the Alpha (B.1.1.7; formerly ‘Kent’) and Gamma (P.1; formerly ‘Brazilian’) variants, with no evidence of widespread antibody escape as seen with the Beta (B.1.351; formerly South Africa) variant. 1 This may provide an initial indication that similar levels of protection could be achieved in the real-world setting...

 

These results build on the recent analysis by Public Health England showing early evidence of real-world data that two doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine are effective against the Delta variant, with similar levels of protection achieved as those seen against the Alpha  variant.3"

 

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/articles/2021/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-shows-effectiveness-against-indian-variants-of-sars-cov-2-virus.html

 

And separately, Reuters reported re the Delta variant that the AZ vaccine was, while effective, alsosignificantly less effective than its Pfizer counterpart:

 

"A study by Public Health England (PHE) found in May the Pfizer (PFE.N)-BioNTech (22UAy.DE) vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta two weeks after the second dose.

That compared with 93% effectiveness against the Alpha variant, first identified in Britain.

 

Two doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta compared with 66% effectiveness against the Alpha, PHE said."

 

But regarding Sinovac:

 

"DO CHINESE VACCINES WORK AGAINST DELTA?

 

China has not provided vaccine effectiveness results against the variant based on large-scale data in clinical trials or real-world use, nor offered detailed information from lab tests, but Chinese experts are urging people to get inoculated as soon as possible.

 

The lack of detailed data on the Chinese vaccines against the Delta has hobbled any meaningful peer reviews by foreign experts.

,,,

Indonesia, which has reported record daily cases recently due to a surge in the Delta variant, saw hundreds of medical workers infected by the COVID-19 despite being vaccinated with Sinovac's shot, officials said earlier this month.

It was not immediately clear, however, if the Indonesian medical workers were infected by the Delta variant."

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/are-chinese-covid-19-shots-effective-against-delta-variant-2021-06-29/

 

 

Hopefully those in charge will take some notice from the letter sent by The Infectious Disease Association of Thailand last week:

 

The Infectious Disease Association of Thailand (IDAT) is calling on the Thai government to procure mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, instead of China’s Sinovac, citing concerns over the Chinese vaccine’s efficacy against new variants, especially the virulent Delta strain.

 

 

3 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

Unfortunately, I think Pattaya will see much larger growth.  Many Bangkok vehicles in town for the weekend again.

Right: don't they have malls and traffic in Bangkok ? And what happened to Bang San beach on weekends for these people.

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

With the numbers now at this level it appears that the Delta Variant is taking hold.  Last night from the Balcony, I watched as the freeway was loaded up with cars heading out of Bangkok.  Today the streets are nearly empty and the park near us which normally has folks in it on a Saturday morning is nearly empty as well.  Looks like the Bangkok spread outwards will become a further reality.

And it could have been managed, if not stopped, if they cared. At this point, it really does appear to be willful sabotage. Make sure those pesky youths do not hit the streets again?

1 hour ago, rabas said:

 

Could well be, the UK curve is rising rapidly.

 

People forget that 62% more transmissible means R0 is 1.62 time bigger. That's the exponential thing.

 

In the R rate is at 1.1 to 1.3.  The number of infections has increased dramatically, yet hospitalizations and deaths are much lower this time round- about 90% lower.  The real world effectiveness against death appears to be above 90% for all vaccines used - AZ/Pfizer/Moderna.  It's mostly unvaccinated young people becoming infected too.

 

 

16 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Hopefully those in charge will take some notice from the letter sent by The Infectious Disease Association of Thailand last week:

 

The Infectious Disease Association of Thailand (IDAT) is calling on the Thai government to procure mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, instead of China’s Sinovac, citing concerns over the Chinese vaccine’s efficacy against new variants, especially the virulent Delta strain.

 

 

Nice, but doubtful they will take notice.

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I don't find much info on how the Sinovac vaccine fares against the Delta variant... But the AZ vaccine seems to do OK, but considerably less than the Pfizer vaccine, which remains absent from Thailand:

 

"A study by the University of Oxford, released in Cell, demonstrates that currently available vaccines, including AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, will provide protection against the  Delta (B.1.617.2) and Kappa (B1.617.1) variants; formerly the ‘Indian’ variants.1 The study investigated the ability of monoclonal antibodies in sera from recovered people, and sera from vaccinated people to neutralise the Delta and Kappa variants. 1

 

Neutralisation against the Delta and Kappa variants was comparable with that seen against the Alpha (B.1.1.7; formerly ‘Kent’) and Gamma (P.1; formerly ‘Brazilian’) variants, with no evidence of widespread antibody escape as seen with the Beta (B.1.351; formerly South Africa) variant. 1 This may provide an initial indication that similar levels of protection could be achieved in the real-world setting...

 

These results build on the recent analysis by Public Health England showing early evidence of real-world data that two doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine are effective against the Delta variant, with similar levels of protection achieved as those seen against the Alpha  variant.3"

 

https://www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/articles/2021/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-shows-effectiveness-against-indian-variants-of-sars-cov-2-virus.html

 

And separately, Reuters reported re the Delta variant that the AZ vaccine was, while effective, alsosignificantly less effective than its Pfizer counterpart:

 

"A study by Public Health England (PHE) found in May the Pfizer (PFE.N)-BioNTech (22UAy.DE) vaccine was 88% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta two weeks after the second dose.

That compared with 93% effectiveness against the Alpha variant, first identified in Britain.

 

Two doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta compared with 66% effectiveness against the Alpha, PHE said."

 

But regarding Sinovac:

 

"DO CHINESE VACCINES WORK AGAINST DELTA?

 

China has not provided vaccine effectiveness results against the variant based on large-scale data in clinical trials or real-world use, nor offered detailed information from lab tests, but Chinese experts are urging people to get inoculated as soon as possible.

 

The lack of detailed data on the Chinese vaccines against the Delta has hobbled any meaningful peer reviews by foreign experts.

,,,

Indonesia, which has reported record daily cases recently due to a surge in the Delta variant, saw hundreds of medical workers infected by the COVID-19 despite being vaccinated with Sinovac's shot, officials said earlier this month.

It was not immediately clear, however, if the Indonesian medical workers were infected by the Delta variant."

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/are-chinese-covid-19-shots-effective-against-delta-variant-2021-06-29/

 

 

 

"Two doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta compared with 66% effectiveness against the Alpha, PHE said."

 

I believe this has now been revised.  What we do know is that AZ is now 92% effective against serious illness after 2 doses  (Pfizer 96% I think).

 

Symptomatic disease isn't the issue really.  It's how bad the infection gets. 

Looks like someone's comment yesterday suggesting 4,000 self-referred cases per day might be the limit for Thailand has been blown out of the water today:

 

 

Of the 6,230 total new cases reported today:

--4,412 from self-referral

--1,520 from outreach testing

--294 from prison

--4 from foreign travelers

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/posts/356784202606577

 

The list of failed / mistaken predictions is getting to be long and illustrious.

 

 

16 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

"Two doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) vaccine were 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the Delta compared with 66% effectiveness against the Alpha, PHE said."

 

I believe this has now been revised.  What we do know is that AZ is now 92% effective against serious illness after 2 doses  (Pfizer 96% I think).

 

Symptomatic disease isn't the issue really.  It's how bad the infection gets. 

 

 Revised, or two different criteria....

 

The AZ / Delta effectiveness data I quoted above was effectiveness against "symptomatic infection," which includes lesser illnesses.

 

Your reference is to serious illness / hospitalization / death.  Do you have a citation for that info?

 

PS - I agree that the "serious illness, hospitalization, death" yardstick is the more important one.... But if I could get high levels of effectiveness against symptomatic infection AND the worse outcomes, I'd take that too!

 

 

 

38 minutes ago, koratkarlos said:

It appears that mixing AstraZeneca with an mRNA vaccine may be beneficial.  I hope so.  https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/02/health/germany-covid-vaccines-mixing-intl/index.html

 

The way things are looking right now, it would seem that there won't be ANY mRNA vaccines available in Thailand for many months to come.

 

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

So, what happened to all of those posters who were claiming this was just the flu, lockdowns don’t work, Covid is a hoax, etc?

Couldn’t believe this post when I saw it 

1 minute ago, phills2k1 said:

Couldn’t believe this post when I saw it 

Some people do switch beliefs when it suits their narrative, while the majority stay with the same mantra and same beliefs in the reality we are seeing.

38 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Right: don't they have malls and traffic in Bangkok ? And what happened to Bang San beach on weekends for these people.

No restaurants open for dining-in in Bangkok.  I suspect it's beach and eating that's the attraction.

Just now, brewsterbudgen said:

No restaurants open for dining-in in Bangkok.  I suspect it's beach and eating that's the attraction.

Bangkok roads right now are fairly vacant, and we just walked back from the mini Silom Mall at Sala Daeng, looked like it was abandoned inside probably no more than a dozen people walking inside.  As I stated in an earlier post I believe that many vacated Bangkok last night, and I wonder if they will be returning, especially the work from home crowd.  Friends that have children vacated Bangkok over a week ago and took laptops with them so the on-line schooling could continue since the schools are still closed.  Why not get out of the city, find a Villa to rent with a pool or by the sea and just chill.  We on the other hand decided to stay and hang o

55 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

Nobody is asking those in the Klong Toei slums 'Would you rather have Sinovac or Pfizer?'

 

To the limited extent that expats in Thailand lately can fight their way into getting a vaccine, they do often seem to still have a choice between getting the Sinovac or AZ vaccine.  I did at Phyathai II Hospital in BKK earlier this week.

 

So for that reason, it's worthwhile to consider the efficacy rates between those two, and others that may become available in the future.