35 minutes ago, anchadian said:

40K reserves for booster shots for Prayut and his government.

 

#Thailand distribution plan of US-donated Pfizer #COVID19 vaccines:

 

1) 700k for medical workers (booster)

2) 645k for high-risk Thais

3) 150k for elderly (incl foreigners), pregnant women, travelers who need Pfizer (e.g. diplomats, students)

4) 5k for researchers

5) 40k reserves

 

https://twitter.com/SaksithCNA/status/1420950122679083014

 

Plenty of wriggle room there. High risk Thai’s can include anyone deemed to have co morbidities serious enough. 150k for travelers.. 40k reserves. It’s all perfectly reasonable laid out like that. In practice the cynic in me is screaming for attention.

1 hour ago, DrJack54 said:

Personally I do think few recent pics of folk being attended to on streets looked possibly staged. If that was found to be the case then that would need to be investigated and prosecuted.

If they had been staged it would have been done by opponents of the current PM and that would have had the "thought police" come down on them like a ton of bricks. So I think we can be fairly sure those photos are real.

20 minutes ago, anchadian said:

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha said that no VIPs were eligible for the donated doses of the Pfizer vaccine.@TNAMCOT

 

https://twitter.com/TNAMCOTEnglish/status/1420955826592780297

 

Apart from 200k or so who will just say they are high risk Thai's because they have to travel abroad and attend numerous committee meetings here.

2 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Sorry, but that's ridiculous.  How does expressing some hope that today's slightly lower figures may mark (note: "may") the peak have any bearing on compassion.  What do you hope for?  Hopefully you don't hope that the figures start increasing again; that wouldn't be very compassionate.

It is not the time for compassion !!! It is time for REALITY !!!

1 hour ago, mistral53 said:

I don't think it is all that important whether we have passed the peak - what is much more important is that there is no exponential increase. It's not much of a consolation for those that are dying, but it is most important for us still alive.

 

It’s quite hard to say what the rate of increase might be atm though. The use of antigen tests to find positives, then not including those positives that are found into official numbers, is skewing things very dramatically. 3k cases at one factory in Petchabun is the tip of the ice burg really.

 

these daily numbers were always suspect, but it was possible to discern trends. With the scale of under counting that appears to currently exist, I’m not sure even trends are discernible, other than it is up. The rate of up is unknown.

 

the really worrying thing is whether even the government now knows the real case count. At least with the suppressed prison positive cases I could say say that although the public doesn’t know, at least the government knows and can factor that data into their decision making. Now even they don’t appear to have the necessary data.

 

 

5 minutes ago, Phoenix Rising said:

If they had been staged it would have been done by opponents of the current PM and that would have had the "thought police" come down on them like a ton of bricks. So I think we can be fairly sure those photos are real.

The photos are clearly real, but some may be mislabeled. For example, there was one fairly obvious gunshot victim shown. Also, we don’t know the time frame for all of them.

Just now, Danderman123 said:

The photos are clearly real, but some may be mislabeled. For example, there was one fairly obvious gunshot victim shown. Also, we don’t know the time frame for all of them.

There was indeed at least one, I saw the one which I think you're referring to, a motorbike guy with blood on his torso and large pools of blood on the ground, obviously not covid related.

 

Problem being those mislabeled ones have now given the RTP justification to purge all of them

54 minutes ago, anchadian said:

40K reserves for booster shots for Prayut and his government.

 

#Thailand distribution plan of US-donated Pfizer #COVID19 vaccines:

 

1) 700k for medical workers (booster)

2) 645k for high-risk Thais

3) 150k for elderly (incl foreigners), pregnant women, travelers who need Pfizer (e.g. diplomats, students)

4) 5k for researchers

5) 40k reserves

 

https://twitter.com/SaksithCNA/status/1420950122679083014

 

It would be interesting to see a comparison between the number of vaccines delivered to the government, either by foreign entities or by the AZ factory, and the number of vaccines administered. Are there surplus vaccines in storage, or are vaccines administered immediately?

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

There was indeed at least one, I saw the one which I think you're referring to, a motorbike guy with blood on his torso and large pools of blood on the ground, obviously not covid related.

 

Problem being those mislabeled ones have now given the RTP justification to purge all of them

Similarly, we don’t know how many elderly or otherwise infirm individuals die on the streets of Bangkok under normal conditions.

3 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I will still stick with my prediction of 20,000 official cases per day by the end of next week.

Before the end of next month more than 30.000....

9 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

 

 

these daily numbers were always suspect, but it was possible to discern trends. With the scale of under counting that appears to currently exist, I’m not sure even trends are discernible, other than it is up. The rate of up is unknown.

Who are you, and what have you done with the real wensiensheng?

 

yes, until hospitals were maxed out, it was possible to discern trends in the official figures. I posted about that many times, but few understood at the time.

Just now, ikke1959 said:

Before the end of next month more than 30.000....

At some point, the system won’t be able to accommodate that many positive cases, so we may see a lower, false, peak.

 

It’s possible that officials know that hard stop is coming in the next 6 weeks or so, allowing them to claim victory when new cases flatten out.

2 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Before the end of next month more than 30.000....

I'm glad I didn't employ you as my stockbroker.

3 hours ago, anchadian said:

1.5 million Pfizer vaccines donated by the United States have arrived in Thailand!

 

https://twitter.com/USEmbassyBKK/status/1420889075226013699

 

Thats the first part of the Vaccines journey completed successfully.

Now I only hope the next stage of the Vaccines Journey sees them getting into the arms they should be.

I am sure eyes and ears will be open.

Horrible scenes on TV Thai news now of clearly over stretched situation. Looks like holding area at hospital or field hospital. If someone can speak Thai check it out. Chaos.

18 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

It’s quite hard to say what the rate of increase might be atm though. The use of antigen tests to find positives, then not including those positives that are found into official numbers, is skewing things very dramatically. 3k cases at one factory in Petchabun is the tip of the ice burg really.

I fully agree, all numbers are way beyond accurate measurement. The whole situation is. We are in uncharted territory.

 

But is there any evidence they do not count people who originally test positive with official antigen tests?

 

How it's supposed to work is, say you want to test 1000 people. You first test using 1000 antigen tests and find 100 positives, Now you test the 100 with PCR tests to confirm them and you have just saved 900 PCR tests!  I don't why the medical establishment would hide those cases. Medical establishment does not equal government. 

"Covid-19 toll in July" Statistics on Covid-19 deaths in Thailand from July 1 to 30 provided by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration.

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1420973013072179203

 

7 minutes ago, rabas said:

I fully agree, all numbers are way beyond accurate measurement. The whole situation is. We are in uncharted territory.

 

But is there any evidence they do not count people who originally test positive with official antigen tests?

 

How it's supposed to work is, say you want to test 1000 people. You first test using 1000 antigen tests and find 100 positives, Now you test the 100 with PCR tests to confirm them and you have just saved 900 PCR tests!  I don't why the medical establishment would hide those cases. Medical establishment does not equal government. 

 

I was told by hospital medical staff that there are a lot of cases in a certain area; though I was asked to not tell anyone.

Maybe figures are being under-reported, maybe not.

29 minutes ago, rabas said:

I fully agree, all numbers are way beyond accurate measurement. The whole situation is. We are in uncharted territory.

 

But is there any evidence they do not count people who originally test positive with official antigen tests?

 

How it's supposed to work is, say you want to test 1000 people. You first test using 1000 antigen tests and find 100 positives, Now you test the 100 with PCR tests to confirm them and you have just saved 900 PCR tests!  I don't why the medical establishment would hide those cases. Medical establishment does not equal government. 

It’s long been rumored that those who test positive with anti gen tests, aren’t then retested with a PCR test.

 

I have seen two indications of proof.

 

1. 3k cases at the Petchabun chicken factory were identified by way of antigen test. I think that is accepted fact, I don’t have a link to hand, but I don’t think it’s disputed. Since discovery of those positive cases, Petchabun has not had a day of cases in excess of 100 cases. So what happened to the 3k cases?

 

2. There was an announcement a few days ago about the government employing “squads” to carry out proactive testing in Bangkok areas with high infection rates. There were details of what was being done and included in those details was an official statement that those being found positive were being given paracetamol and that funny herb thing and told to isolate at home. At the time I immediately realized that there was no mention of positive cases being sent for a second test. I took it as explicit confirmation of the rumor.

 

if I can find links for the above, I will post them later. I personally take it as proof of the earlier rumors, but others may feel it’s not enough evidence.

 

Edit. Currently I cannot find a link to confirm my second point. In fact, I have found links where BMA states that positive antigen cases will get a second PCR test. I am either confused or need to look beyond just the head guy stating what is supposed to happen.

 

second edit. This is a link where second tests are not mentioned. There is a similar article in a publication that cannot be copied here. 

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/200-mobile-teams-actively-screening-communities-in-bangkok-for-covid-19/

37 minutes ago, anchadian said:

I'm glad I didn't employ you as my stockbroker.

You use a broker?

21 minutes ago, anchadian said:

"Covid-19 toll in July" Statistics on Covid-19 deaths in Thailand from July 1 to 30 provided by the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration.

https://twitter.com/Thenationth/status/1420973013072179203

 

What a stupid in this "bar" look like many people come bck live from death!

2 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

It’s long been rumored that those who test positive with anti gen tests, aren’t then retested with a PCR test.

 

I have seen two indications of proof.

 

1. 3k cases at the Petchabun chicken factory were identified by way of antigen test. I think that is accepted fact, I don’t have a link to hand, but I don’t think it’s disputed. Since discovery of those positive cases, Petchabun has not had a day of cases in excess of 100 cases. So what happened to the 3k cases?

 

2. There was an announcement a few days ago about the government employing “squads” to carry out proactive testing in Bangkok areas with high infection rates. There were details of what was being done and included in those details was an official statement that those being found positive were being given paracetamol and that funny herb thing and told to isolate at home. At the time I immediately realized that there was no mention of positive cases being sent for a second test. I took it as explicit confirmation of the rumor.

 

if I can find links for the above, I will post them later. I personally take it as proof of the earlier rumors, but others may feel it’s not enough evidence.

I read elsewhere the Petchabun chicken factory cases were discovered over a period of 4 or 5 days. So I think that is more rumor.

 

But my main point, knowing the Thai medical establishment well, I cannot imagine they would purposely undercount cases. It is very much to their disadvantage. If you've been listening to the doctors, they are in near revolt trying to convince the government to take the crisis more seriously. If the government ever ordered the medical establishment to hide cases, we would know about it in a microsecond.

 

A conspiracy troll meme and replies have been removed.

1 minute ago, rabas said:

I read elsewhere the Petchabun chicken factory cases were discovered over a period of 4 or 5 days. So I think that is more rumor.

 

But my main point, knowing the Thai medical establishment well, I cannot imagine they would purposely undercount cases. It is very much to their disadvantage. If you've been listening to the doctors, they are in near revolt trying to convince the government to take the crisis more seriously. If the government ever ordered the medical establishment to hide cases, we would know about it in a microsecond.

 

I will look into the Petchabun issue more closely then. I didn’t realize it was still up for debate.

 

I only know what I read in articles. That particular PBS article that I quoted suggested to me that it isn’t a case of the government telling the medical profession to deliberately hide cases. More a situation where medical professionals carried out antigen tests, found positive cases and then simply did the most practical thing which was to accept the test result as accurate and move the people to isolate at home, a community centre, or field hospital.

 

in other words, the antigen was good enough so far as the medical staff were concerned, and so they got on with the job. But it meant no second test and therefore no official case. That’s just my interpretation. But it’s a fact that when the medical person was describing the procedure in the article, at no time did he say that a second test was performed. Maybe he didn’t think it needed to be said, forgot to say it, or they aren’t being done. I don’t know. I only know what is written in the article.

From the total confirmed cases that were found in the past 24 hours:

 

- 12,823 were found via walk-in tests at medical facilities

- 4,514 via proactive tests at known clusters

- 8 imported cases

https://twitter.com/ThaiEnquirer/status/1420981652826718212

 

#COVID19 update in #Thailand on Friday:

 

Since 1 April

549,512 people infected (+8 imported and +17,337 local)

4,585 dead +117

192,526 in care

4,595 in ICU and 1,012 on ventilators

10,678 discharged from care

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1420981744564535300

 

Today there were 117 deaths in #Thailand

 

62 males & 55 females

5 foreigners died

Median age is 67 (33-92 years)

Most deaths in Bangkok (55)

Deaths reported in 27 provinces

48% died within 6 days of diagnosis

9 died in their homes

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1420982697220972548

 

New clusters in #Thailand:

 

Samut Sakhon (factory & company) +27

Pathum Thani (company) +25

Samut Prakan (company) +10

Chonburi (factory) +15

Songkhla (factory) +13

 

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1420983226382700548

 

19 minutes ago, rabas said:

I read elsewhere the Petchabun chicken factory cases were discovered over a period of 4 or 5 days. So I think that is more rumor.

 

But my main point, knowing the Thai medical establishment well, I cannot imagine they would purposely undercount cases. It is very much to their disadvantage. If you've been listening to the doctors, they are in near revolt trying to convince the government to take the crisis more seriously. If the government ever ordered the medical establishment to hide cases, we would know about it in a microsecond.

 

Here’s information on the Petchabun chicken factory. The cases were confirmed over two days, 23rd and 24th July. 3 nearby villages were also locked down. The positive cases were detained in a field hospital at the factory. I guess that is bubble and seal. No mention of second test.

 

I can look up the daily case numbers for Phetchabun, but it will be laborious. Maybe you can take my word for it that they haven’t been above 100 per day, or check it yourself.

 

I’m fairly comfortable with saying those 3k cases aren’t in the official daily numbers.

 

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/phetchabun-chicken-processing-plant-sees-over-3000-infections

 

 

Out of 16,656 local cases (outside prisons) most in

 

Bangkok - 3,231

Samut Prakan - 1,386

Samut Sakhon - 1,186

Chonburi - 914

Nonthaburi - 587

Chachoengsao - 479

Nakhon Pathom - 378

Ubon - 350

Pathum Thani - 330

Songkhla - 324

https://twitter.com/ThaiNewsReports/status/1420983840080752641