Pandemic in Thailand: The worst is still to come - DDC predicts 20-30,000 cases and 400 deaths per day

[Paradise Pete]

8 hours ago, pseudorabies said:

Over the past month the doubling time has been around 3 weeks so without further intervention I would expect that we will easily exceed the predicted 40k per day by Sept 14 (2 doublings from the near-20k we are seeing today). 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/

According to this doubling time is currently 18 days:

https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/thailand/

 

If that is correct, and the rate stays that way, that's 2.5 doublings, or nearly 100k/day by Sept 14.

The lockdowns should slow that rate down a bit, but of course increased testing would reveal more cases, somewhat masking the effect of lockdowns.

 

Long term, of course, the only way out is widespread vaccination.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TKDfella]

10 hours ago, Caldera said:

Does this model even take into account that a massive number of infections haven't been counted within the last weeks?

Yes. The Susceptible Exposed Infected Removed Model is one of the epidemic math model programs (there are several) which are made up differential equations. Each DE is based on time, first infection through to incubation, recovery/death time and mortality rates etc. However, different authorities vary the number of input parameters from about 10 to around 15 or 16. There are computer programs made for hospital researchers who have the necessary input data and I suspect Dr. Opas used one of those available. Please don't misunderstand me, I am certainly far from expert and have just read some papers 'in passing', so to speak, on other forums. Basically it is about statistical models which are as accurate as input data and with viruses one has to know the general consensus of the contagiousness and I would think that alone could be controversial. 

[Magenta408]

Send this yoyo to Imperial College. Ferguson can teach him a lesson or two. Bugga-bugga.

[NativeBob]

11 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

>> I was going up Lat Phrao to get my jab on Thursday and passed by that wet market just before Chok Chai 4... the number of people at and around the market was unbelievable. Social distancing didn't exist and some still think chin warmers are adequate mask replacements.

^^^ Name is "Talad Saphan Son" - over 20+ years as filthy as ___________ [can't write it here]. Nothing changed neither at that so-called wet-market nor Huay Kwang, although Thai DDC made a very clear rules/recommendations since previous SARS outbreak. 

[GammaGlobulin]

10 hours ago, pseudorabies said:

Over the past month the doubling time has been around 3 weeks so without further intervention I would expect that we will easily exceed the predicted 40k per day by Sept 14 (2 doublings from the near-20k we are seeing today). 

 

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/

It is important to use proper statistics when calculating doubling time.  I mean, you don't just multiply by 2.  In order to calculate doubling time you can either understand the statistics, or you can use a doubling time calculator, if you do not know the statistical formula.

[MrJ2U]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Yes, the provincial travel news seems to be more fiction, from a group that only seems to know falsehoods, lies, and deception. Nobody I have spoken with has encountered any travel issues, other than trying to get onto the islands. 

Who wants a sh ** paid job stopping 1000 of people and maybe getting COVID-19.

 

 

 

 

[tomazbodner]

32 minutes ago, NativeBob said:

^^^ Name is "Talad Saphan Son" - over 20+ years as filthy as ___________ [can't write it here]. Nothing changed neither at that so-called wet-market nor Huay Kwang, although Thai DDC made a very clear rules/recommendations since previous SARS outbreak. 

I used to live in Soi Mahadthai about 25 years ago and when taking open air bus passing there (that was a long time ago), the smell coming from that market was repulsive. About as bad as Khlong Toey market. I would always try to hold my breath for as long as I could and pray for no traffic jams around that bridge over the canal to pass it as quickly as possible.

[metisdead]

A post commenting on moderation has been removed. 

[Albert Zweistein]

10 hours ago, Blumpie said:

If these numbers come to fruition I think it's time to get the hell out of Thailand gentlemen and ladies (I mention ladies last as there are hardly any here)

Gender discrimination.

[pseudorabies]

1 hour ago, GammaGlobulin said:

It is important to use proper statistics when calculating doubling time.  I mean, you don't just multiply by 2.  In order to calculate doubling time you can either understand the statistics, or you can use a doubling time calculator, if you do not know the statistical formula.

I have grown enough bacterial cultures to know exactly what doubling time is. Viruses too. Also have had to deal with radioisotopes and radioactive decay which is measured in half-lives.  Same for pharmacokinetics of drug compounds.

And FWIW CNN is also citing a 3-week doubling time.

[khaowong1]

14 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

From another Op running the lockdown has kept the numbers below 45k a day and reduced deaths.  Now this Op where the same doctor, Dr, Opas says:

Why does he not just make one daily briefing with a singular statement that allows for all officials to have input into rather than these different contradictory Ops and differing information.  Would have, Could have, Should, have, but then who really knows, all are guesstimates and personal views which I am sure TAT will be along shortly to tell us Millions of tourists will be coming starting in October because the lockdowns worked.

TAT should be locked down and not allowed to speak. 

[raccos21]

It seems like this C19 never will go away and people need to learn live with it.

So they need to focus on the way C19 turn out like do they have enough beds for those fall very sick and medical supplies for them instead counting daily cases.

It could be much less threatening.

[Fairynuff]

14 hours ago, ukrules said:

The penny has finally dropped....

I think you’re right, I’ve even seen foreigners in Hua Hin wearing a mask, some even wear them correctly.

[Fairynuff]

17 minutes ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Spikes in Australia? Where? Queensland 1, Tasmania none, Victoria 6, South Australia 3, Western Australia none only NEW South Wales has just over 200 and you call that a spike?

For Australia.... yes that’s a spike.

[Blumpie]

3 hours ago, Albert Zweistein said:

Gender discrimination.

Thank you for pointing that out.

Just replace gentlemen and ladies with humans of all genders known or unknown.  

Please accept my sincerest apologies for hurting your feelings and I will never write male, female, ladies, gentlemen, ever again.  

 

[The Hammer2021]

17 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

Because other than night curfew discouraging drinking and partying at night, this is not a lockdown. There are more cars on the roads in rush hours than before lockdowns, so nobody cares about work from home order, supermarkets are packed with people. I was going up Lat Phrao to get my jab on Thursday and passed by that wet market just before Chok Chai 4... the number of people at and around the market was unbelievable. Social distancing didn't exist and some still think chin warmers are adequate mask replacements.

 

So yes, I would also go with something very close to worst case scenario. As you just can't fix stupid.

Here in Pattaya roads are very quiet as are malls etc. Crowds are rare. Streets are empty

[Taboo2]

17 hours ago, riclag said:

 A face shield ,2 masks and a bottle of 70% !

 I don't leave home without them !

Come to think of it, we hardly ever leave 

BE sure to ventilate your home....

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

indeed quite accurate numbers ; according to the world meter.

if thailand will open all shops and borders, there will be indeed 300-400 deaths

per day.

how many will die from the lockdowns alone?

mexico decided to open all from the beginning.

[The Hammer2021]

1 hour ago, Meat Pie 47 said:

Lies again the army got called up to stop another anti vaccer protest like it happen the week before stop listening to fake news.

Not an anti vaxer protest. An anti lockdown protest and anti government protest about incompetence and corruption and lack of vaccine. And even if it was an anti vax protest what kind of authoritarian police state uses it army to to police demonstrators?

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

3 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

what kind of authoritarian police state uses it army to to police demonstrators?

australia?

[Albert Zweistein]

5 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Thank you for pointing that out.

Just replace gentlemen and ladies with humans of all genders known or unknown.  

Please accept my sincerest apologies for hurting your feelings and I will never write male, female, ladies, gentlemen, ever again.  

 

Not my feelings, peoples feelings.

[metisdead]

A post containing a link to a report about estimated causes of death in Thailand, 2005 has been hidden as the report was way out of date and there fore false and misleading information. 

[FarangJon]

Oh man, these are definitely real performers. 20-30,000 soon. Every four year old can count and knows that we will be at 30,000 in 10 days. By the end of August there are at least 50,000 a day. It's unbelievable what kind of nepotism and failure in the government can speak up.

[Road Warrior]

bit cleaver to predict 14 Sept as the peak !!!!

[miketu]

Has anyone stopped to observe the fact that the more people are vaccinated in a country against covid19, the higher the infection rate seems to be climbing in that country (e.g. Thailand, Philippines, UK, Sweden, etc).  And the climb in the infection rate is not among the un-vaccinated but among the vaccinated.  It would seem that mass covid vaccinations are only serving to lower immunity and increase the infection rate of a country.  Why isn't this being investigated and reported on by mainstream world media??

Edited August 1, 2021 by metisdead
Bold font removed.

[johnarth]

On 7/31/2021 at 9:44 AM, edwinchester said:

You would be reported as dying as a result of a road traffic accident.

depends if you die at the screen of accident or not, if die on way to hospital or in hospital you die of natural causes as always a Thai gov. directive to cut down road deaths

[JeffersLos]

I received a message from my family back in America that Thailand's current numbers are making the news there.

[FunkyDunky58]

I am interested in how the delta variant is in so many countries with international travel all but ceased. Information about what makes this variant so deadly seems scant. 

[DrJack54]

3 minutes ago, FunkyDunky58 said:

I am interested in how the delta variant is in so many countries with international travel all but ceased. Information about what makes this variant so deadly seems scant. 

International travel never ceased. Far from it. 

Even to Australia thousands of returning citizens and residents.

[Isaan sailor]

39 minutes ago, JeffersLos said:

I received a message from my family back in America that Thailand's current numbers are making the news there.

And perhaps they’re thinking, well, so-and-so decided to retire in a 3-rd world country—now he or she needs to pay the price, with 3-rd world public health options.