China could be an economic time bomb sitting on Thailand’s doorstep as Evergrande collapse nears

[placeholder]

44 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The world would not escape unscathed. Third, China still owns a few trillion dollars of US debt. Dump that and either US rates rise considerably, or else the US decides to default by CUSIP, choosing to not honor bonds held by China. Neither is pretty.

China holds about 1.06 trillion dollars in US treasury bonds. That's about 4% of the total debt. Not a serious threat.

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Where is this OP China Bashing, I see one poster, but the rest of the posts therein are not.  Think you need to read some of the posts, and not make rash statements such as what you posted because of one post, because it is not very proper. Calling people Sheeple is also disrespectful.

I wasn't referring to the OP. It should be obvious from the sheer number of BM's who took the opportunity toi engage in some China bashing, including spreading conspiracy theories. They deserve worse than to be called sheeple which is a term most often bandied about by the far right.

[thaibook]

1 hour ago, seedy said:

From the OP - "President Xi Jinping has reacted by galvanising public opinion at home with increasingly strident, nationalistic rhetoric promising a more equal redistribution of wealth by 2035"

 

I seem to remember a guy named Mao saying the same thing

He tried by killing off 60 million of the poorer in th epopulation.  How many will the current dictator kill in his bid? 

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, sezze said:

I agree . Sure not everything in China is fine , like human rights, to name 1 , but many of the news is deliberate rumor spreading creating hate . Same goes for Russia . In Western news ( read US , since all the western world gives only news from that side) you only get fear and hate messages . The Western world ( again read US) is in decline and world power is shifting to the East . This movement is a big economic shift , and has happened before . 1000 y ago China was also the big power , after it switched to Europe , and after that to USA .

Like i said , surely not all is fine, surely not , but do take some critical view with you and try to read news from several sources , and not only from your side of the ocean/fence/... . 

Thanks for the empty generalizations. China has very serious, debilitating structural defects much of it due to mismanagement by Xi. He has increasingly compelled the private sector to support moriibund state industries and state banks.

 

He allows local governments to artificially stimulate the economy by creating ghost cities and other unnecessary infrastucture.  They do this because the central govt requires them to spend funds to increase the GDP. If their GDP doesn't rise, the government penalizes them.

The size of state owned industries has actually increased relative to private industries which are the dynamic part of the economy.

Because education is so underfunded in China parents have to spend a huge part of their incomes on tutoring for their children. They can't afford to raise more than one child. China is facing a huge drop in its working age population as older workers retire and there aren't enough workers to replace them.

It seems more likely that China will end up in what's called a middle income trap. With the heavy hand of government suppressing competition from the private sector.

As for Russia...you've got to be kidding...

[thaibook]

18 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Agreed.  But I suspect it won't be a conventional war. 

 

A few thousand or even a few hundred SAS type troops could land relatively covertly and quickly remove (eradicate) a large portion of the political infrastructure in a very short timeframe.

 

Knowing their heads are on the block, the remaining power base will be only too willing to negotiate a swift surrender.  Politicians invariably and uniformly value their own life far more than their ideals. 

 

I bet more than just a few of them have their Leah's on a slow idle 24/7 right now and those that aren't neutralized and have time to escape will do so.

 

It will happen so fast the West won't have time to mobilize and the US and UK will be only too happy to announce the event as a China "domestic issue", largely because the global economic risk to losing the source of chips would be too devastating.

So your time frame is 1-2 years as TSMC has been courted successfully to set up factores in other locations, such as USA.

[gearbox]

26 minutes ago, sezze said:

I agree . Sure not everything in China is fine , like human rights, to name 1 , but many of the news is deliberate rumor spreading creating hate . Same goes for Russia . In Western news ( read US , since all the western world gives only news from that side) you only get fear and hate messages . The Western world ( again read US) is in decline and world power is shifting to the East . This movement is a big economic shift , and has happened before . 1000 y ago China was also the big power , after it switched to Europe , and after that to USA .

Like i said , surely not all is fine, surely not , but do take some critical view with you and try to read news from several sources , and not only from your side of the ocean/fence/... . 

Xi is a smart cookie and what he is actually doing is channeling resources into areas which give long term competitive advantage. Residential real estate and online gaming are areas which waste resources and do not provide any competitive advantage.  The Chinese are focusing on areas requiring hard science, where it takes long time to build expertise,  but once mastered it takes long time for any competitors to catch up.

And the latest trade data confirms he is on the right track, record trade surpluses and exports, record currency reserves, and 60% of exports are machinery and electronics, only 18% are now labor intensive like producing t-shirts. From these 60% machinery and electronics exports an ever increasing share is produced by the Chinese multinationals with their own IP.

 

Compare that to some western countries with huge service based economy, and you can understand why Xi is saying "time is on our side".

 

 

[chilli42]

The consequences of a China disaster of this nature will be far reaching.  Collateral damage will be global.  The global debt bubble is enormous particularly when you add derivatives.  An implosion in China debt markets will shake global confidence that is already teetering.  Have to wonder who will be buying all that Sovereign  debt when China steps back from the auctions.  Hope I am blowing smoke and turn out to be dead wrong … it’s been known to happen ????.  Might be a good time to consider investing in real assets.

[thaibook]

22 minutes ago, sezze said:

I agree . Sure not everything in China is fine , like human rights, to name 1 , but many of the news is deliberate rumor spreading creating hate . Same goes for Russia . In Western news ( read US , since all the western world gives only news from that side) you only get fear and hate messages . The Western world ( again read US) is in decline and world power is shifting to the East . This movement is a big economic shift , and has happened before . 1000 y ago China was also the big power , after it switched to Europe , and after that to USA .

Like i said , surely not all is fine, surely not , but do take some critical view with you and try to read news from several sources , and not only from your side of the ocean/fence/... . 

but bear in mind that almost all western media is pro globalism, pro-immigration, anti-nationalist and so will dislike the leader of any country that seeks to preserve a national culture, cutural and social homogeneity, or a sense of national identity.  They therefore target China and Russia but also Poland, Hungary, among others and to a lesser extent the UK (re Brexit) and Australia (re preventing illegal immigration).

[userabcd]

1 hour ago, Jeffr2 said:

I wonder how different that is from here?  I go by these condo buildings on the sea, built decades ago, and very few lights are on.  Seems some were just bought as places to put money.

Same situation in Bangkok.

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, thaibook said:

but bear in mind that almost all western media is pro globalism, pro-immigration, anti-nationalist and so will dislike the leader of any country that seeks to preserve a national culture, cutural and social homogeneity, or a sense of national identity.  They therefore target China and Russia but also Poland, Hungary, among others and to a lesser extent the UK (re Brexit) and Australia (re preventing illegal immigration).

None fo those countries has had a distinct national culture for hundreds of years. You are using code words (dog whistles) for "nationalism"

[Walker88]

43 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The conspiracy theories that China created coronavirus and deliberately released it to the world are toxic and just plain wrong. All this China bashing is just creating a situation where the sheeple develop a mindset predisposed to a war with China, just like 1938 in Europe.

Don't see those conspiracy theories here.

 

What is undeniable is the the CCP acted incredibly irresponsibly when Covid first arose, squashing any mention of it and even jailing doctors who tried to speak out about it. Despite knowing that it was a dangerous and infectious virus, China allowed the masses to travel during Lunar New Year, and nations unaware what virus was emerging accepted millions of Chinese tourists, thus allowing the virus to go global.

 

CCP had a responsibility not only to its own citizens, but to the entire world, to warn of the emerging virus and welcome any and all experts to look at data and virus samples and get to work understanding it and taking steps to mitigate its spread.

 

The CCP failed, and two years later the world is still fighting, and dying, because of the fragile ego of the CCP.

[DefaultName]

Historically, one thing that always stimulates an economy is a war.  Let's hope he doesn't decide on that.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

One of big reasons fueling this looming disaster is the fact that China provides very little in the way of security for its seniors. So they have a very high savings rate which means that they have to put their money somewhere. If China had instituted a decent social security system in the early days of its growth, that growth would have been slower but more sustainable. It's citizens would have spent more on consumption and invested less which would have resulted in a more balanced and sustainable economy.

Also, the Chinese govt has forced the private sector to invest or lend  money to losing state banks and industries. Xi's bizarre version of socialsim- support state banks and industries but starve funding for social programs - are driving China towards a major financial disaster. Unless things radically change, China seems destined to be a perpetual middle income nation.

I had heard nothing about this till I read the OP. It cheered me up immensely. With any luck it'll also do some serious damage to the 10% in the west that think they deserve most of the wealth.

 

Seems to me that little was done after the 2008 financial crisis to prevent such crisis in the future, and now chickens are flying home.

Hopefully all those financial people that make loadsacash from moving other people's money around are sweating.

[ozimoron]

Just now, Walker88 said:

Don't see those conspiracy theories here.

 

What is undeniable is the the CCP acted incredibly irresponsibly when Covid first arose, squashing any mention of it and even jailing doctors who tried to speak out about it. Despite knowing that it was a dangerous and infectious virus, China allowed the masses to travel during Lunar New Year, and nations unaware what virus was emerging accepted millions of Chinese tourists, thus allowing the virus to go global.

 

CCP had a responsibility not only to its own citizens, but to the entire world, to warn of the emerging virus and welcome any and all experts to look at data and virus samples and get to work understanding it and taking steps to mitigate its spread.

 

The CCP failed, and two years later the world is still fighting, and dying, because of the fragile ego of the CCP.

Show me a country that didn't act irresponsibly, some more so than others. Remember, "it will be gone by Easter"? Just as a start.

[placeholder]

36 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Agreed.  But I suspect it won't be a conventional war. 

 

A few thousand or even a few hundred SAS type troops could land relatively covertly and quickly remove (eradicate) a large portion of the political infrastructure in a very short timeframe.

 

Knowing their heads are on the block, the remaining power base will be only too willing to negotiate a swift surrender.  Politicians invariably and uniformly value their own life far more than their ideals. 

 

I bet more than just a few of them have their Leah's on a slow idle 24/7 right now and those that aren't neutralized and have time to escape will do so.

 

It will happen so fast the West won't have time to mobilize and the US and UK will be only too happy to announce the event as a China "domestic issue", largely because the global economic risk to losing the source of chips would be too devastating.

It's a pity that the Taiwanese, who have performed so brilliantly in so many way, don't even suspect that China might implement strategy you have floated here and have taken no steps to counter such an eventuality. And you know this because...?

[placeholder]

Just now, ozimoron said:

Show me a country that didn't act irresponsibly, some more so than others. Remember, "it will be gone by Easter"? Just as a start.

And this is relevant to the issue of Xi's and the CP's mismanagement of the economy how?

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, DefaultName said:

Historically, one thing that always stimulates an economy is a war.  Let's hope he doesn't decide on that.

Maybe Taiwan will be a test case to see what the west does?

[Scott]

Off-topic, conspiracy posts and replies reported and removed.

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I had heard nothing about this till I read the OP. It cheered me up immensely. With any luck it'll also do some serious damage to the 10% in the west that think they deserve most of the wealth.

 

Seems to me that little was done after the 2008 financial crisis to prevent such crisis in the future, and now chickens are flying home.

Hopefully all those financial people that make loadsacash from moving other people's money around are sweating.

They're not the only ones who will be sweating. China is also a huge importer of goods from the West. So it's not just the Chinese and their neighbors who will suffer.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And this is relevant to the issue of Xi's and the CP's mismanagement of the economy how?

I 3was responding to a comment bashing China.

[Denim]

2 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

Well , anyway , the good news is that one can have a drink again ...

Did we stop ?

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

They're not the only ones who will be sweating. China is also a huge importer of goods from the West. So it's not just the Chinese and their neighbors who will suffer.

Living in NZ I'm well aware of that. A large part of our income is from China. However, I believe it was an unsustainable system in China where a few became obscenely wealthy while the masses suffered, and sooner or later it will end one way or another, which means the correction would happen anyway, eventually.

If China does collapse economically, there will be a lot of pain and screaming in NZ, IMO.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I 3was responding to a comment bashing China.

OK. my mistake. Yes, I see lots of indiscriminate china bashing here, mostly allegations that because the Chinese political system is repugnant, therefore everything that comes out of China is somehow inferior or malign.

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Living in NZ I'm well aware of that. A large part of our income is from China. However, I believe it was an unsustainable system in China where a few became obscenely wealthy while the masses suffered, and sooner or later it will end one way or another, which means the correction would happen anyway, eventually.

If China does collapse economically, there will be a lot of pain and screaming in NZ, IMO.

Australia too. Much of the real estate price frenzy has been driven by Chinese money. A collapse in house prices and rise in interest rates will cause much gnashing of teeth.

[thaibeachlovers]

5 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

I 3was responding to a comment bashing China.

Do you not think they deserve a bashing ( obviously referring to the leadership, not the masses )?

[Denim]

2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Success in invading Taiwan is by no means a given. An amphibious invasion against a well prepared and well armed enemy is a very difficult operation. If it fails it will leave the Chinese regime economically and militarily bust.

A real desperate throw of the dice.

 

I agree.  If Taiwans friends stand firm in their resolve to assist in event of Chinese aggression then I don't think even the CCP will be stupid or desperate enough to make an all out invasion.  Too risky. 

 

However , it can still serve as a useful distraction by more of the same bellicose behavior we have recently seen , keeping up the pressure without resorting to open conflict.

 

If there were a land border connecting the two then that would be completely different. As it is , the Taiwan Straight is the islands greatest defense , as was the English Channel to the UK in 1940.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

OK. my mistake. Yes, I see lots of indiscriminate china bashing here, mostly allegations that because the Chinese political system is repugnant, therefore everything that comes out of China is somehow inferior or malign.

Chinese women are beautiful.

[herfiehandbag]

44 minutes ago, Gsxrnz said:

Agreed.  But I suspect it won't be a conventional war. 

 

A few thousand or even a few hundred SAS type troops could land relatively covertly and quickly remove (eradicate) a large portion of the political infrastructure in a very short timeframe.

 

Knowing their heads are on the block, the remaining power base will be only too willing to negotiate a swift surrender.  Politicians invariably and uniformly value their own life far more than their ideals. 

 

I bet more than just a few of them have their Leah's on a slow idle 24/7 right now and those that aren't neutralized and have time to escape will do so.

 

It will happen so fast the West won't have time to mobilize and the US and UK will be only too happy to announce the event as a China "domestic issue", largely because the global economic risk to losing the source of chips would be too devastating.

They may try something along those lines. But - the threat of that has been there for a long time. The Taiwanese military is pretty hard headed - they know what will happen to them if they lose - and I am certain it is a threat for which they have planned and trained.

 

Covert raids are difficult to pull off when you are expected! Anything more than a slack handful in rubber boats launched from a submarine will be detected - actually I should imagine that Taiwan has some pretty good systems in place for detecting and tracking submarines.

 

Another point is that if regaining Taiwan is staged divert attention from overwhelming domestic woes, then it will need to be a glorious high profile victory...

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Do you not think they deserve a bashing ( obviously referring to the leadership, not the masses )?

Sure they do but I object to the conspiracy theories about the origins of coronavirus and the general racist sentiment. It's one thing to bash government policy and another to bash it's people. Furthermore, there's plenty of blame to go around but you don't see any attempt at nuance or balance.

[BE88]

USD 3.218 trillion in October of 2021  will be enough to pay the debts of China.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-exchange-reserves