Would you agree now could be the time to buy bricks and mortar again?

[webfact]

 

 

Over the years investing in real estate has proven a reliable return against other types of speculation, including buying stocks and shares or even gold.

The outlook for Thailand’s own real estate industry in 2022 is expected to be positive as the market is receiving many impulses. 

Analysts state that the real estate market is expected to recover in 2022. There are already positive signs of this in the last quarter of 2021, including the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, widespread distribution of vaccines, and overall economic rebound.

According to Dot Property, new supply is predicted to enter the market at the beginning of 2022 as developers and sellers offload their existing property to cater to consumers with strong purchasing power. 

Positive indicators are the easing of LTV measures and the reopening of the country.

Local realtor Coastal Real Estate in Pattaya, reported having had their best-ever quarter in the past ten years in both sales and rentals.

So, business seems to be improving.

Covid concerns

Information of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 appearing in Thailand from a UK arrival in December has been a cause for worry in the real estate market. 

However, now this variant seems to be under control, many market players still have their hopes up for a recovery in 2022 due to the Thais mentality of wanting to own houses and residential land, continuously driving demand.

Foreign optimism too

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will end his term with the best housing production and financing average of 195,687 per year which is the highest since 1975, according to data from the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development (DHSUD).

Over in the USA, last year was great for selling a home but not a great year if you were trying to buy one. Home prices rose sharply and the number of homes for sale declined. 

 

Although the 2022 housing market will still tilt toward sellers, it offers a slightly better chance for buyers to snag their dream homes.

 

Low mortgage rates and limited supply helped push prices higher. There were just 1.38 million homes for sale nationally in June, down 23 percent year-over-year, according to Redfin.

 

Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist said, “Remote work, low mortgage rates, a shortage of building materials and wealth inequality that has allowed an influx of affluent Americans to buy vacation homes, to name just a few factors, have come together to create a historic year for real estate. 

Analysts state that Vietnam's economy is forecasted to recover at a positive level, growing at 6 - 6.5% or even 6.5 - 7% if the recovery program is well implemented. 

They expect that demands will then bounce back strongly.

Talk the talk

Eventually, as usual it is all down to several factors.

The industry themselves talking up the market in the media grabs people’s attention.

Secondly, the lowering of local interest rates will help a lot.

Then buying the best property in the best location will always pay dividends.

And finally, buyer and developer confidence.

Investment or a home

Buying for investment is trickier especially in younger markets such as Vietnam or Cambodia. 

However, if you are considering buying for somewhere to live, then you are buying for choice and profit is not the main concern.

Property across Thailand can vary from small box-shaped condominiums in Bangkok to lavish villas on the islands.

Therefore, it depends on your lifestyle requirements and of course your budget.

Still, if you think prices have bottomed out, maybe now is the time to head to the realtor’s office.

 

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[tingtong]

34 minutes ago, webfact said:

Local realtor Ocean Real Estate in Pattaya, reported having had their best-ever quarter in the past ten years in both sales and rentals.

With tourists number arguable about 5% of that back in 2019....rentals at a high?

Yeah, right. 

 

 

 

 

 

[KhunLA]

Since in Thai section, kind of irrelevant, unless only interested in condos, which as already pointed out, not the best rental investment, since it will probably be years before tourist return, along with 'new' long term retirees.

 

Sold 2 homes, and the only thing making a 'profit' was the appreciation of the land they sat on.  Brick & mortar part, simply breaking even on that part of the ROI, and the land was the money maker.

 

Unfortunately, without a Thai partner, not available for most folks.  It is, or should be a buyers' market for condos, in which case, it's a roll of the dice as a seller or renter in next 5 to 10 years.  Next new pandemic ???? ????

 

Sort of like wars, since profitable, they like having one every few years.  Pandemic has be very profitable ... let that sink in.

[Sparktrader]

No just rent.

[Hummin]

Buy cheep farmland to your wife ????

[LarrySR]

How long do reinforced concrete towers last?

A 12 story condo in Florida collapsed last year, crushing 100 occupants.

Apparently there was bad design, construction shortcuts, corrupt city officials, greedy developer, crappy maintenance.....that would never happen in Thailand, right?

I predict the towers built in the 1990s will start to be condemned or collapse before their 40th birthday.

[ThailandRyan]

Until there is a true Real-estate board or commission and prices are done on comparative size and location as far as a truthful appraisal it is a total feces show in LOS.  Un-realistic prices and sellers unwilling to offload a property for fear they could loose money means the properties sit empty and becoming dilapidated due to a lack of upkeep and maintenance.

[itsari]

House and flat rental prices are way down in Chiang Mai if you can find a tenant .

One could say it is a good time to buy on the basis the market will strengthen when tourism makes a recovery .

Baht will increase in value as tourism grows . 

[jacko45k]

2 minutes ago, itsari said:

House and flat rental prices are way down in Chiang Mai if you can find a tenant .

One could say it is a good time to buy on the basis the market will strengthen when tourism makes a recovery .

Baht will increase in value as tourism grows . 

So far this month that appears to be the case......

[sammieuk1]

Having had 12 smoked like a kipper years in Chiang Mai we moved and bought in Hua Hin 2 months ago it looks like the best move I have ever made clean air beach and an offer of 1.5m more than I paid happy days at last ???? 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Over the years investing in real estate has proven a reliable return against other types of speculation, including buying stocks and shares or even gold.

Depends very much on what you buy, for how much, where you buy it and for what reason.

[Isaan sailor]

Baht too high for buying real estate, unless you find highly distressed properties and or sellers.  Otherwise, renting seems better

[Orinoco]

Buy to live in, sure.

Otherwise invest in your home country.

Thailand is an investment black hole now days.

 

[SoilSpoil]

If you have a healthy liquidity, buy some land and rent the house you live in. That's what we do. Rent-to-price ratio is ridiculously low. We live in a nice house and will move to another in a couple of years without having to worry about maintenance. Fantastic.

[worgeordie]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The industry themselves talking up the market in the media grabs people’s attention.

Jut what is happening here with this article.

"Secondly, the lowering of local interest rates will help a lot. " they cannot get any lower,

with high inflation they should be on the rise.

regards Worgeordie

[RichardColeman]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Local realtor Ocean Real Estate in Pattaya, reported having had their best-ever quarter in the past ten years in both sales and rentals.

We live over in the dark side in a CC village. We just signed up for a nice, quiet 2 bed house (bungalow) for 3 years. Owner wanted 15,000 a month but agreed 10,000 for a 3 year deal - which suited us. Our house is much nicer than the one we previously just left (and luckily the owner lives next door to do maintenance)

 

The may well be doing a roaring trade in rentals - but the prices certainly are NOT going up. I see more rentals in the villages now than ever before. It is certainly a renters market when knocking off 33%.

 

As for sales, that could well be true, but it is probably growing on the back of a lot of poor thais selling up and moving away after the government has destituted them

[ChrisY1]

Regardless the negative comments on ownership in Thailand, there is always the sense of security and comfort of living in your own place...whether a humble condo or massive home.

[mikebell]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

the Thais mentality of wanting to own houses and residential land,

Many farangs share this dream but Thailand won't allow it.

[Orinoco]

3 hours ago, Hummin said:

Buy cheep farmland to your wife ????

Does that truly exist anymore.

Maybe if you can find people that are desperate for money.

and will sell at a good price. but other than that, the days of big profits on land have already been had long a go.

Spend big money on land now days could be bad news down the road, leave your cash in your home country and invest there.

Also you can't trust Thailand now days. when it comes to rules and regulations. they will happily sell you on down the river and not care a hoot.

Buyer beware.

[blazes]

1 hour ago, SoilSpoil said:

If you have a healthy liquidity, buy some land and rent the house you live in. That's what we do. Rent-to-price ratio is ridiculously low. We live in a nice house and will move to another in a couple of years without having to worry about maintenance. Fantastic.

No soi dogs in your mooban then?

[spidermike007]

Only distressed property makes sense, at highly discounted prices. At least with the condo market, which is very, very soft. Alot of wishful thinking, by industry types. The rental market is very soft, especially in areas like Pattaya, Chiang Mai, Hua Hin, Phuket and Samui. The pain will be felt for many years to come. I anticipate condo prices to drop by half. A friend of mine recently moved to Pattaya. He looked at condos in Jomtien. He walked into one of the nicest towers, looked at a 36th floor unit with panoramic views, and when he was quoted 28,000 a month, he offered 10,000. They settled on 13,000. He said the agent more or less admitted the building was nearly empty, and they could not rent to sell anything, at this time.

 

Even the mention of the market in the US reeks of desperation. That market is going to collapse like a house of cards, within the next year or two. Just like it has done every 15 years or so, since who knows when. 

[Hummin]

28 minutes ago, Orinoco said:

Does that truly exist anymore.

Maybe if you can find people that are desperate for money.

and will sell at a good price. but other than that, the days of big profits on land have already been had long a go.

Spend big money on land now days could be bad news down the road, leave your cash in your home country and invest there.

Also you can't trust Thailand now days. when it comes to rules and regulations. they will happily sell you on down the river and not care a hoot.

Buyer beware.

We all did great vawes but also some did hit hard the rock bottom on the previous economic turbolence, and the next one to come after COVID, will make many savers loose Alot more. We are being warned but do small investors like me and you listen?

I have nothing to loose, so I stay out of stock marked, just 50k euro locked up at the moment in low risk long term investment. The rest spread on downpaid property and some gold. Right now, I wish I had more. 

 

I do not calculate the land in Thailand as my investment, since that is a bonus (my bonus) if she keeps me to the bitter end. 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Hummin

[jerrymahoney]

5 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

A friend of mine

A friend for all occasions. If I posted about my trip down the Lower Zambezi River, some would come on here to post "I have a friend who just took a trip down the Lower Zambezi River and he said ..."

Edited February 16, 2022 by jerrymahoney

[NanaSomchai]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

He walked into one of the nicest towers, looked at a 36th floor unit with panoramic views, and when he was quoted 28,000 a month, he offered 10,000. They settled on 13,000. He said the agent more or less admitted the building was nearly empty, and they could not rent to sell anything, at this time.

Never. Trust. A. Thai.

 

This is Thailand.

[LittleBear57]

So many new houses unsold near me in Bang Saray area south of Pattaya, building even stopped and builders laid off on some estates. Many other estates have lots of houses for sale or rent, looks like a buyers market to me. Mind you they are still asking silly prices for them.

[newnative]

3 hours ago, LarrySR said:

How long do reinforced concrete towers last?

A 12 story condo in Florida collapsed last year, crushing 100 occupants.

Apparently there was bad design, construction shortcuts, corrupt city officials, greedy developer, crappy maintenance.....that would never happen in Thailand, right?

I predict the towers built in the 1990s will start to be condemned or collapse before their 40th birthday.

     555  Well, we have an optimist on our hands, folks!   Some of you will remember the poster who said all the highrises will come crashing to the ground after 30 years.  Nice to hear we've been granted an extra 10 years!   Uhh.  Hold on.  Now that I think of it, another poster said, no, not 30 years--they'll all start crashing down after 20 years.   So, if we average them, we're back at 30.  <deleted>.   Hard hats are on Aisle 7 at Home Pro.  Avoid the rush.

[IamNoone88]

Nothing but a plug for DotProperty. There is no mention of rocketing construction costs including a new minimum daily labour charge and the huge increases in steel and construction materials, coupled with increased transportation costs and international logistics. All of this will affect prices and profits of developers  .... and in a very soft and fragile economy.

[Eric Loh]

12 minutes ago, IamNoone88 said:

Nothing but a plug for DotProperty. There is no mention of rocketing construction costs including a new minimum daily labour charge and the huge increases in steel and construction materials, coupled with increased transportation costs and international logistics. All of this will affect prices and profits of developers  .... and in a very soft and fragile economy.

The increased construction costs that you highlighted are correct. It will cause a major shake out of construction companies especially the smaller construction companies. 

 

The large companies especially those listed in SET will be able to manage costs more effectively than their smaller peers, they are also in a position to buy larger land bank which would reduce project development cost. They can also undertake several projects simultaneously which improves economies of scale. Beyond this, they benefit from stronger branding and marketing networks. They will benefit from the improved economic conditions, proliferation of infrastructures especially the trains and very likely government stimulus measures targeted at the real estate sector which contribute 8% to the GDP. 

 
 

[thaibeachlovers]

No, never, no, not for any farang in LOS, IMO.

[Cherrytreeview]

7 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

The increased construction costs that you highlighted are correct. It will cause a major shake out of construction companies especially the smaller construction companies. 

 

The large companies especially those listed in SET will be able to manage costs more effectively than their smaller peers, they are also in a position to buy larger land bank which would reduce project development cost. They can also undertake several projects simultaneously which improves economies of scale. Beyond this, they benefit from stronger branding and marketing networks. They will benefit from the improved economic conditions, proliferation of infrastructures especially the trains and very likely government stimulus measures targeted at the real estate sector which contribute 8% to the GDP. 

 
 

Improved economic conditions?

With the borders still effectively shut?

40 million tourists reduced to 400,000.

The only thing that will improve Thai real estate is even more creative accounting practices so that the real book value is never put on a Thai banks accounts.

No fire sales, just keep building properties that no one wants.