Assault on Kiev: Russian helicopters swoop above Ukraine's capital

[Danderman123]

16 minutes ago, tgw said:

there are a few good outcomes that are still possible:

 

very unlikely miracle: the northern column and/or the southern advance get crushed by Ukrainian surprise moves. Russia negotiates.

 

possible: Ukrainian military succeeds in keeping operational capabilities and a base in Western Ukraine.

 

possible: street fights without end. Russians need to take the cities block by block, house by house. Russian losses mount and Putin loses support at home.

 

probable: Russia pushes through, arrests the leaders, proclaims victory. I'm unsure what this would mean, several possibilities: government in Lviv, protracted resistance despite losing the government, or ?

I'm not sure Russia will be able to achieve anything even if they capture the government. and then?

 

In the event of the governments capture... I expect many, many Ukrainians will just continue fighting. molotov cocktails, IEDs, snipers ... it's already ugly and there are high risks that will stay ugly even after Russia achieves its "objectives" of "de-nazifying" Ukraine.

 

Ukraine has had enough of 100 years of Soviet and then Russian oppression. I was in Ukraine for some time in 2003, and people already were defiant vs. Russia (Stalin killed 6 to 10 million Ukrainians in 1932-33), and that was before the Orange Revolution and before Russia poisoning the president and all the other shenanigans.

 

Another scenario: the Russians starve Kyiv into submission.

[TacoKhun]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Another scenario: the Russians starve Kyiv into submission.

With all the weapons they distributed among civilians it will be bloodbath

[Danderman123]

Just now, TacoKhun said:

With all the weapons they distributed among civilians it will be bloodbath

After the Iraq invasion of 2003, there were literally hundreds of thousands of weapons on the streets. Although some US soldiers were killed in the insurgency, overall, it didn’t make much of a difference.

 

Putin would accept a few thousand dead Russians every year to maintain control of Ukraine.

 

Worse, once Russia controls Kyiv, they have the means to really clamp down on resistance. If you don’t agree, explain Chechniya being so peaceful today.

[tgw]

19 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

No Eastern European countries have agreed to sending MiGs to Ukraine.

 

Ukraine still has a handful of aircraft, operating from streets and roads.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560

 

"including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, along with 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria."

 

Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria do qualify as Eastern European countries in my book

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, tgw said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560

 

"including 28 MiG-29s from Poland, 12 from Slovakia and 16 from Bulgaria, along with 14 Su-25s from Bulgaria."

 

Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria do qualify as Eastern European countries in my book

None of those countries agreed to supply planes to Ukraine.

 

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/03/01/poland-says-it-will-not-send-jets-to-ukraine/

[tgw]

5 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

None of those countries agreed to supply planes to Ukraine.

 

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/03/01/poland-says-it-will-not-send-jets-to-ukraine/

sadly, it appears that you are correct:

https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-falling-apart-russia-advances-slovakia-poland-bulgaria-1683588

 

they could be more creative...

buy those jets from these countries, have NATO fulfil these countries' airspace security until new Western jets are provided and supply the old soviet stuff to Ukraine.

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by tgw

[balo]

I think it's safer to stay in Thailand right now than in Europe. This can only get worse.      

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Russia has been accused of using 'vacuum bombs' in Ukraine. What are those?

 

"Russian forces have been accused of using the widely banned and dangerous weapons known as vacuum bombs that "obliterate" their victims. 

 

Amnesty International accused Russia of using the vacuum bombs, or thermobaric weapons, to attack a preschool in northeastern Ukraine while civilians took shelter inside. While CNN reported that one of its teams had spotted a Russian thermobaric multiple rocket launcher near the Ukrainian border early on Saturday afternoon.

 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-been-accused-of-using-vacuum-bombs-in-ukraine-what-are-those/ar-AAUsS0G?li=BBorjTa&ocid

 

[Led Lolly Yellow Lolly]

1 hour ago, balo said:

This can only get worse

Spare a thought for the Russians. They're banned from the Eurovision Song Contest. That's gonna smart.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Led Lolly Yellow Lolly

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The fog of war... Hard to tell what's really going on there with all the conflicting reports and propaganda efforts:

 

Russian Forces Abandoning Their Vehicles and Surrendering, Videos Show

Footage shared on social media shows military vehicles apparently abandoned by Russian soldiers, some of whom are seen surrendering to Ukrainian forces.

 

Images tweeted by open-source intelligence monitor, OSINT Defender and the Ukraine Information Army show destroyed equipment they say belongs to the Russian army.

 

OSINT Defender tweeted that Russian forces were reported to have abandoned an outpost in the Sumy Region and fled into the woods during the night, leaving military vehicles behind."

 

(more)

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kyiv-army-tanks-abandoned-1683584

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Russia’s Initial Failures Don’t Mean Ukraine Will Survive

"The first hint that something was off with the initial Russian war effort came in the very first hours. As violent as the strikes looked on television, I knew they were nothing compared with the kinds of aerial and artillery campaigns that typically begin attacks on sovereign nations with intact armies, as is the case with Ukraine.

 

Then, as the days wore on, that sense that something was off hardened into a consensus.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russias-initial-failures-dont-mean-ukraine-will-survive/ar-AAUtFkI

 

[Danderman123]

9 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Russia’s Initial Failures Don’t Mean Ukraine Will Survive

"The first hint that something was off with the initial Russian war effort came in the very first hours. As violent as the strikes looked on television, I knew they were nothing compared with the kinds of aerial and artillery campaigns that typically begin attacks on sovereign nations with intact armies, as is the case with Ukraine.

 

Then, as the days wore on, that sense that something was off hardened into a consensus.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russias-initial-failures-dont-mean-ukraine-will-survive/ar-AAUtFkI

 

If Russia takes 2 weeks to encircle Kiev, so what?

 

I am amazed at the number of military analysts who assumed that the Russians would try to drive tanks into Kyiv on the first day. Anyone competent would encircle Kyiv and then starve the city into submission.

 

Otherwise, many thousands would die.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

The ultimate, you're on the ignore list......................

 

Dozens of diplomats walked out of a speech by the Russian foreign minister to the UN human rights forum on Tuesday.

 

 

[Virt]

9 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Russia has been accused of using 'vacuum bombs' in Ukraine. What are those?

 

"Russian forces have been accused of using the widely banned and dangerous weapons known as vacuum bombs that "obliterate" their victims. 

 

Amnesty International accused Russia of using the vacuum bombs, or thermobaric weapons, to attack a preschool in northeastern Ukraine while civilians took shelter inside. While CNN reported that one of its teams had spotted a Russian thermobaric multiple rocket launcher near the Ukrainian border early on Saturday afternoon.

 

Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, told reporters after meeting with members of the U.S. Congress on Monday that Russia had used a thermobaric weapon. The thermobaric weapon, also known as a fuel-air explosive... is fired or dropped in an area and the first explosive charge spreads the fuel in a cloud that sucks up oxygen and then flows "around objects and into structures." As the fuel cloud spreads, the second charge detonates it. Once detonated, it creates a "massive blast wave" that is most destructive in enclosed spaces, buildings and foxholes. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-been-accused-of-using-vacuum-bombs-in-ukraine-what-are-those/ar-AAUsS0G?li=BBorjTa&ocid

 

If they use those in the cities they have no control if it's soldiers or civilians they are killing.

Some of those bombs have quite a large kill radius, and it could be considered a warcrime to use such weapons in populated cities with civilians.

[Virt]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

If Russia takes 2 weeks to encircle Kiev, so what?

 

I am amazed at the number of military analysts who assumed that the Russians would try to drive tanks into Kyiv on the first day. Anyone competent would encircle Kyiv and then starve the city into submission.

 

Otherwise, many thousands would die.

 

 

The large column near Kyiv could be used to such tactic, but thankfully it seems like it has stopped temporally due to its own problems with supplies.

That was the news this night, but can change quickly.

 

What i fear is such tactic would be accompanied with shelling the city itself while it's surrounded, which could mean a lot of dead civilians.

 

The Ukrainian forces know they are coming and so far haven't tried to hit that convoy, so i hope they have some plans when it get closer.

 

Hopefully new peace talks will end this soon.

 

I know Ukraine are saying they refuse to surrender or give up territory, but maybe Putin would accept if Crimea officially is announced Russian territory and if Ukraine agrees not to join NATO as long as Russian troops stay out of Ukraine and there is a demilitarized zone near the borders on each side, that can't be used by armed forces?

 

I'm just a dumb civilian with no military training, but something has to be done to stop this.

[Chomper Higgot]

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

If Russia takes 2 weeks to conquer Ukraine rather than 2 days, does it matter?

Putin clearly thought it would take two days, he was wrong.

 

On what basis do you claim two weeks?

[Kwasaki]

8 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

No Eastern European countries have agreed to sending MiGs to Ukraine.

 

Ukraine still has a handful of aircraft, operating from streets and roads.

You may be correct the news I have read from western sources is that Ukrainian pilots are flying jets given by the EU out of Poland. 

[Chomper Higgot]

8 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

After the Iraq invasion of 2003, there were literally hundreds of thousands of weapons on the streets. Although some US soldiers were killed in the insurgency, overall, it didn’t make much of a difference.

 

Putin would accept a few thousand dead Russians every year to maintain control of Ukraine.

 

Worse, once Russia controls Kyiv, they have the means to really clamp down on resistance. If you don’t agree, explain Chechniya being so peaceful today.

Completely different situations.

 

1. The Iraqis wanted to see the back of the murderous Sadat Hussein regime and we’re not about to take up arms in his defense. Most of the Iraqi army were not prepared to do that.

 

2. The US and coalition forces were well trained, well equipped and motivated. Not so Russia’s army.

 

Ukraine is not Chechnya.

 

 

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, Virt said:

If they use those in the cities they have no control if it's soldiers or civilians they are killing.

Some of those bombs have quite a large kill radius, and it could be considered a warcrime to use such weapons in populated cities with civilians.

Ukraine president has ask the population to arm themselves so technically few civilians about. 

I hope they have got all the women that don't want to fight and children out of the cities. 

[Hummin]

9 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

There's already been reports of a dog fight over Kiev.

Turned out to be video game and also staged russian fighter pilots fighting to scare Ukrains

“Secret Service of Ukraine debunked this fake news. ... information to demoralize civilians. russian forces staged an airfight over the Chornobyl zone”

 

https://voxukraine.org/en/provocation-and-disinformation-overview/

Edited March 2, 2022 by Hummin

[Hummin]

15 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Completely different situations.

 

1. The Iraqis wanted to see the back of the murderous Sadat Hussein regime and we’re not about to take up arms in his defense. Most of the Iraqi army were not prepared to do that.

 

2. The US and coalition forces were well trained, well equipped and motivated. Not so Russia’s army.

 

Ukraine is not Chechnya.

 

 

Most of the boys in Russian army is 18-22 and not prepared for seing their buddys burn on the street after being told they where going to be met with a flower parade, after they only thought they where going to the border for a training rehersal, not an active military operation. 
 

Talking about the perfect way to motivate your troops, when they see the reality after crossing the border. 
 

I remeber when we did not get supplies when doing our winter war games up in Northern Norway how that affected us. Food coming in 30 min, turned out to be 36 hours, and of course part of the training, but still we werent going to a real war. 
 

 

[Kwasaki]

28 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Putin clearly thought it would take two days, he was wrong.

 

On what basis do you claim two weeks?

On what basis do you claim 2 days. 

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Ukraine president has ask the population to arm themselves so technically few civilians about. 

I hope they have got all the women that don't want to fight and children out of the cities. 

People are trapped in Kyiv. Happening as we speak.....................women and children still attempting to leave, the only way out is via a crumbling old makeshift bridge.

 

On the outskirts of Kyiv, makeshift bridge only way to flee Russian forces

At the north-western entrance to the Ukrainian capital across the Irpin river, people flee the advancing Russian forces using a makeshift pedestrian bridge.

[Berkshire]

1 hour ago, Virt said:

The large column near Kyiv could be used to such tactic, but thankfully it seems like it has stopped temporally due to its own problems with supplies.

 

The Ukrainian forces know they are coming and so far haven't tried to hit that convoy, so i hope they have some plans when it get closer.

 

I honestly don't understand why Ukraine is allowing this huge convoy to proceed unimpeded.  They can sabotage the roads, place obstructions, hit this slow-moving target directly....etc.  I'm guessing they have some sort of plan to deal with this.  (the classic "secret" plan"...hope it's spectacular)  Because if this convoy reaches Kyiv, it'll be a not-so-happy ending for Ukraine.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Putin clearly thought it would take two days, he was wrong.

 

On what basis do you claim two weeks?

There is no evidence that Putin thought Kyiv could be taken in 2 days, that is an invention of the propaganda machine.

[Chomper Higgot]

33 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

On what basis do you claim 2 days. 

Refer the post I was replying to.

 

And my apologies, I wasn’t trying to usurp your position as leading authority on what Putin is thinking.

[Danderman123]

57 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

You may be correct the news I have read from western sources is that Ukrainian pilots are flying jets given by the EU out of Poland. 

No Ukrainian pilots are flying Polish jets.

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

There is no evidence that Putin thought Kyiv could be taken in 2 days, that is an invention of the propaganda machine.

So why did you bring it up?

[Kwasaki]

30 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I honestly don't understand why Ukraine is allowing this huge convoy to proceed unimpeded.  

Nor do I that's the problem with so called weird war. 

Emotion and propergander cloud the facts. 

[Chomper Higgot]

Putin unleashes new weapon to pummel Ukraine into defeat, currency controls:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/52f09776-5fbd-3163-8b4f-accb9c649468/putin-signs-decree-to.html