Bear market in stocks -- if you're invested have you panicked?

[ChrisP24]

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

Over the recent years people have been banging on about why they use an agent for retirement extension so they can invest the 800k instead and get 10%+ annual, or other rubbish number they come up with, where are they now? how's that going?

Yep.  But if they spend that down to below 800k they won't be able to renew that particular visa, as I understand it.  So I see that more as dead money or cash-of-last-resort rather than part of a cash reserve.  Kind of like selling the farm - - it gets you cash but then you have no place to live. 

[scubascuba3]

1 minute ago, ChrisP24 said:

Yep.  But if they spend that down to below 800k they won't be able to renew that particular visa, as I understand it.  So I see that more as dead money or cash-of-last-resort rather than part of a cash reserve.  Kind of like selling the farm - - it gets you cash but then you have no place to live. 

with an agent there's no requirement to have 800k, instead they invest the money and make massive returns year on year they say 555

[ChrisP24]

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

with an agent there's no requirement to have 800k, instead they invest the money and make massive returns year on year they say 555

Well, maybe skipping a year here and there...... ????????????

[ballpoint]

21 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

with an agent there's no requirement to have 800k, instead they invest the money and make massive returns year on year they say 555

I find it interesting that people make so much money out of their 800k that they can't afford to keep it in a bank, yet make so little from the rest of their money that they can't spare 800k to keep in a bank.

[scubascuba3]

6 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

I find it interesting that people make so much money out of their 800k that they can't afford to keep it in a bank, yet make so little from the rest of their money that they can't spare 800k to keep in a bank.

I agree, it's cobblers, makes them feel better though

[2009]

56 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

OK I'm ready to spill the beans.

Contrary to all typical mainstream financial advice for older people already retired I have no stocks in non retirement accounts (all cash) but I am fully 100 percent invested in stocks in my retirement account  Have not sold and don't intend to. I may not withdrawal anything from the account for living expenses for a year or two though. Normally I've been taking 3 percent. The stocks are diversified globally and with sectors. I guess you might say I have too much skin in the game. I am avoiding checking current balances, ha ha.

I'd say you're ball-deep, JT.

[1FinickyOne]

19 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

In my opinion, worse than the dot-com-bubble, as pretty much all assets are in decline, and much more complicated than back then. Back then it was to a large part overpriced tech stocks, but now we also have massive liquidity from fiscal measures during the pandemic, run-away inflation, a very hawkish Fed, economic troubles in China, the war in Ukraine, etc., etc.

and it is raining too much here... 

[LarrySR]

 

No need to panic if your asset allocation is in order. -20% is correction territory. 

19 of the bear markets in the last 140 years averaged -37% and lasted less than a year. 289 days average. Bank America predicts the next bull market begins October.

 

 

The USA currently has an astounding GDP, unemployment is 3.6% (full employment) and the deficit was cut $350 billion last year.

Inflation triggered by supply chain shortages after the 2 year pandemic lockdown and now with millions back in the workforce, the supply chain just hasn't caught up with demand. 

Good news on the way when the Russian war ends, sending oil prices lower and good inflation numbers expected to follow as the supply / demand equalizes. 

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

5 minutes ago, LarrySR said:

Bank America predicts the next bull market begins October.

October what day? I can wait... 

[GarryP]

12 minutes ago, LarrySR said:

 

No need to panic if your asset allocation is in order. -20% is correction territory. 

19 of the bear markets in the last 140 years averaged -37% and lasted less than a year. 289 days average. Bank America predicts the next bull market begins October.

 

 

The USA currently has an astounding GDP, unemployment is 3.6% (full employment) and the deficit was cut $350 billion last year.

Inflation triggered by supply chain shortages after the 2 year pandemic lockdown and now with millions back in the workforce, the supply chain just hasn't caught up with demand. 

Good news on the way when the Russian war ends, sending oil prices lower and good inflation numbers expected to follow as the supply / demand equalizes. 

 

 

I hope you are right with that.

[LarrySR]

8 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

October what day? I can wait... 

I am going to be steadily deploying my cash into stocks over the next 6 months.

Edited May 24, 2022 by LarrySR

[LarrySR]

21 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I agree. That's almost always the case. But you have to be able to wait out the storm. Bear markets are usually shorter than bull markets too. 

 

Bull markets take the escalator. Bear markets ride the elevator. 
 

[Stocky]

I'm still invested, I maintain cash reserves to cover two year's expenditure plus an emergency fund. So no need to sell anything, indeed I've been buying a little on the way down. I started my portfolio 30 years ago, so got jitters out of the system a long time ago.

 

.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Stocky

[Lacessit]

Companies with solid cash flow that pay good dividends will always have value, irrespective of whether it is a bull or bear market.

[Jingthing]

58 minutes ago, Stocky said:

I'm still invested, I maintain cash reserves to cover two year's expenditure plus an emergency fund. So no need to sell anything, indeed I've been buying a little on the way down. I started my portfolio 30 years ago, so got jitters out of the system a long time ago.

 

.

Yes I also can probably hold out for years without needing to touch my stocks. I am not panicking at all. Now if I needed the stocks to live on now, it would be a disaster.

Edited May 24, 2022 by Jingthing

[talahtnut]

If I had spare cash I'd be buying Russian RUBS,

while the $, £, and Euro are still circling the plughole.

[Stocky]

33 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Now if I needed the stocks to live on now, it would be a disaster.

But you don't, so provided your eggs aren't all in one basket but suitably diversified, you have absolutely no need to panic. 

[1FinickyOne]

2 hours ago, LarrySR said:

I am going to be steadily deploying my cash into stocks over the next 6 months.

I'll watch from the sidelines...

[Jingthing]

44 minutes ago, Stocky said:

But you don't, so provided your eggs aren't all in one basket but suitably diversified, you have absolutely no need to panic. 

I'm not really well diversified. Only stocks and  cash. But I get your point.

[Stocky]

14 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Only stocks

But you can diversify stocks by sector and region.

[Onerak]

12 hours ago, sidgy said:

No Panic here. When C19 devastated the markets i was roughly showing 35-40% down. Just kept on with my monthly additions. 12-18 months later I was already back to showing around 5% green in international portfolio and 10% green on SET.  With this latest bear, Im showing 10% red on international and level on SET. No Panic, i will just keep on adding, the markets will be back to a Bull way before my retirement

Keep on adding is a good strategy if one has jobs and have regular contribution. Dollar cost averaging. Otherwise  need cash lying around. Retirement needs different strategy. From last few years I am withdrawing around $40K every year from my 401K and adding 7K to Roth IRA with high yield dividend funds and spending the rest. My expenses are only $3K per month maximum for the last few years (no travel). I will pick up travel next year. I have not started my SS yet though I became eligible this year. Will delay as long as possible may be up to 65 or 67. 

Edited May 24, 2022 by Onerak

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, talahtnut said:

If I had spare cash I'd be buying Russian RUBS,

while the $, £, and Euro are still circling the plughole.

How is the $ circling the plughole...think your mistaken.....

[Outbackoz]

I am probably only an 'average Joe' investor primarily invested on the ASX in Oz. Have generally maintained positions but have sold down some Tech and speculative stocks . Did hedge my tech holdings in Dec last year with some PUT warrants against the NASDAQ which I will hold until there is a floor forming on the index which I would expect once there is a little more clarity on the cost of money (interest) and progress on logistics/supply chain issues. Topping up on commodities  (base metals) and probably a little overweight on those and energy for the time being. I would expect volatility to continue for the remainder of the year. Will be looking at the  the VIX or fear index (Chicargo Board of Exchange Volatility Index)  for some smaller positions when opportunities arise. At this time no intentions to sell down on core holdings but rather look towards hedges.   Purely crystal ball gazing and personal thoughts and mulling s. Not under any circumstance investment advice.    

[StayinThailand2much]

Not sure what's going on, again, today, but would you guys please stop panic-selling...

 

In moments like this, I am glad that I'm in stocks, not options. At least with stocks, it ends at 0, and I won't have to transfer more money. ????

Edited May 24, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[StayinThailand2much]

5 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

October what day? I can wait... 

You mean, what year? ????

[1FinickyOne]

24 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Not sure what's going on, again, today, but would you guys please stop panic-selling...

 

In moments like this, I am glad that I'm in stocks, not options. At least with stocks, it ends at 0, and I won't have to transfer more money. ????

I had a really great decade, but I am too old for this... I know I can't trade... and enough people are saying that the era of buy and hold is gone... dividend stocks yield 5% and drop 25%... and better than all of that is the bank gives me .00001% or something like that.. the positive is that being mostly in cash I don't stay up and watch the markets.. I sleep better

Edited May 24, 2022 by 1FinickyOne

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, ThailandRyan said:

How is the $ circling the plughole...think your mistaken.....

it has been a big and only positive for me... 

[StayinThailand2much]

5 hours ago, LarrySR said:

Good news on the way when the Russian war ends, sending oil prices lower and good inflation numbers expected to follow as the supply / demand equalizes. 

Yes, and, possibly, the bear market (if investors sell at a loss, and enough wealth is destroyed) might help stop the inflation in its tracks, resulting, perhaps, in a less hawkish Fed... I'm not keeping my hopes up for this year, but I'm certain there will be a market rally in 2023 or 2024.

Edited May 24, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[StayinThailand2much]

20 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

waiting a bit before investing in the US, waiting for another 20% drop, I know pipe dream, but Putin should be deploying his nukes anytime soon now ????

Never mind Putin. Now that Biden clarified that the U.S. would definitely not send troops if China invaded Taiwan, just watch out for Xi Jinping's signal for a full-blown invasion (attempt)...

[ballpoint]

A look at the history of the S&P 500 reveals two main things (Sourced from Morningstar).

 

Firstly, in the long term, you will always gain - if you can hang on long enough. 

Secondly, there have been periods where it has dropped and not recovered to its previous high for over 20 years.  Bad news if this happens to be the start of one of those periods?  It's bad news if you only hold funds indexed to the S&P 500, but, for active investors, even during these periods individual years have done much better:

 

S&P 500 annual losses and gains:

 

 

Other than during WW2 (which still had years with overall gains), there have only been three consecutive years of losses on one occasion, and two consecutive years on one occasion.

 

The Nasdaq is similar:

(Both charts from S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends ).

 

In any case, this being an election year, the thought of millions of retiree, and near-retiree, voters nervously watching their pension funds shrinking will not be a good one for the Democrats, which is why many analysts are predicting the Fed will announce that inflation is under control and stop tightening around the end of Q3 - increasing liquidity in the economy and leading to a market rise (which is where the "bull run sometime in October" quoted in a previous post comes from), putting a smile back on voters faces in time for November 8th.  Unfortunately, this will likely just push the problem further down the road, and sooner or later - though it may be a few years away, another long period of reduced stock indices will begin.  ETF holders have had a very good ride, but it may be time to get off and try something else in a year or two, or three.

 

(It may look like I'm being down on the Democrats, but this would have happened no matter who was in charge.  The fickle voting public is what it is though).