So, are BA.4 BA.5 sub-variants containable in Thailand?

[webfact]

 

OPINION | by Michael Bridge

 

This week we reported that initial findings of research, conducted by the Thai Department of Medical Sciences, show that the COVID-19 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants are likely to be more serious than the BA.2 sub-variant, says the department’s director-general, Dr.Supakit Sirilak.
 
He said on Monday that the findings are based on random checks of 570 COVID-19 cases, conducted between July 2nd and 8th, by the Department of Medical Sciences. 

 

Among them,280 were found to be infected with BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants, 283 with the BA.2 sub-variant, five cases of BA.1 sub-variant and two cases which could not be clearly identified.
 
Dr. Supakit said that 71.95% of the BA.4 and BA.5 cases and 28.05% of the BA.2 cases were found not to be serious, but out of thirteen severe cases, including lung infections and those who need ventilators or died, 76.92% of them were BA.4 and BA.5 cases, compared to 23.08% of BA.2 cases.
 
From these initial findings, he said that BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants are more likely to cause more serious symptoms than the BA.2 sub-variant, adding that the incidents of BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variant infections are tending to increase in Thailand, with more serious cases in Bangkok than for BA.1 and BA.2 sub-variants.
 
He admitted, however, that the number of cases examined by the Department of Medical Sciences is not enough to determine with certainty that BA.4 and BA.5 are more serious.

 

Personal reactions

 

In the past couple of weeks, two friends have posted positive for Covid, and they assume it could be one of the new variants.

 

Both have had Covid before, but both agreed that this strain was a lot harder to manage.

 

Coughing was the worst side effect and they both were very tired and had headaches for over nine days.

 

OK, that is just two examples however with the relaxation of wearing masks the new variants are spreading fast.

 

Another friend who has just tested positive thinks he caught the virus while being packed into a bus at the Suvarnabhumi airport when getting off a flight from Vietnam.

 

US Data

The coronavirus subvariant known as BA.5 accounted for nearly 54% of the country's Covid cases as of last Saturday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the States. 

A similar subvariant, BA.4, makes up 17% more.

"They're taking over, so clearly they're more contagious than earlier variants of omicron," said David Montefiori, a professor at the Human Vaccine Institute at Duke University Medical Center.

The two subvariants also appear to evade protection from vaccines and previous infections more easily than most of their predecessors.

Montefiori estimated that BA.4 and BA.5 are about three times less sensitive to neutralizing antibodies from existing Covid vaccines than the original version of the omicron variant, BA.1. 

Other research suggests that BA.4 and BA.5 are four times more resistant to antibodies from vaccines than BA.2, which replaced the omicron variant as the U.S.'s dominant version of the coronavirus in April.

No new Vaccine until the Winter

The US Food and Drug Administration last week recommended modifying coming booster shots from Pfizer and Moderna to target BA.4 and BA.5 directly.

Pfizer has told the media that it could have an updated vaccine targeting BA.4 and BA.5 ready to be distributed, but not until October.

 

 

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[stoner]

covid is so 2020. 

[Jingthing]

2 minutes ago, stoner said:

covid is so 2020. 

Covid hasn't received the memo. 

[ukrules]

Are they containable?

Not a chance.

[shdmn]

Not containable.  Any suggesting to keep wearing masks as a solution is beyond ridiculous at this point, so of course that is what the WHO is recommending.  It's not more dangerous so nothing to be any more concerned about than previous Omicron variants.

Edited July 13, 2022 by shdmn

[stoner]

44 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Covid hasn't received the memo. 

neither did you apparently. 

Edited July 13, 2022 by stoner

[blazes]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Among them,280 were found to be infected with BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants, 283 with the BA.2 sub-variant, five cases of BA.1 sub-variant and two cases which could not be clearly identified.
 
Dr. Supakit said that 71.95% of the [280] BA.4 and BA.5 cases and 28.05% of the BA.2 cases were found not to be serious, but out of thirteen severe cases, including lung infections and those who need ventilators or died, 76.92% of them were BA.4 and BA.5 cases, compared to 23.08% of BA.2 cases.

I'm too lazy to calculate what 76.92% of thirteen is (around 10?), but it would seem that out of 280 BA 4 and 5 cases, only 10 were found to be serious.

 My mathematics may be wrong, but those seem like ok odds to me.  Better odds than crossing the road on a zebra crossing in Thailand without possibly serious consequences....

[Phil1975]

What a stupid question, of course they are not containable, they never were, and never will be. 

 

Current "vaccines" totally useless while big pharma rakes in billions on a "vaccine" developed nearly 3 years ago. The new MNRA process was supposed to mean modifying the "vaccine" quickly to keep up with the virus, but that has not happened at all. 

 

It will be interesting if they really do modify the "vaccine" for B4 and B5 and release globally by October. I highly doubt it tho...

[KhonKaenLive]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

the relaxation of wearing masks the new variants are spreading fast.

???? It appears none of Thailand's health policymakers are reading the data. 

[ukrules]

10 minutes ago, blazes said:

I'm too lazy to calculate what 76.92% of thirteen is (around 10?), but it would seem that out of 280 BA 4 and 5 cases, only 10 were found to be serious.

 My mathematics may be wrong, but those seem like ok odds to me.  Better odds than crossing the road on a zebra crossing in Thailand without possibly serious consequences....

They have absolutely no idea how many hundreds of thousands of new transmissions there are each day right now or what percentage of the population is currently infected.

 

If they do know the above then they're certainly not speaking about it.

 

There is absolutely no way at all that Thailand comes out of this any differently to any other country in the world - just look at NZ right now, there's no hope there either and they're still in denial.

 

Time is the equaliser here.
 

Edited July 13, 2022 by ukrules

[notmyself]

BA.4-5 is essentially a free booster.

[Isaan sailor]

Let’s all take a moment to reflect and give thanks to China/CCP for Covid—the gift that keeps on giving.

[Tarteso]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

five cases of BA.1 sub-variant and two cases which could not be clearly identified.

Polonium ?

[rwill]

49 minutes ago, Phil1975 said:

It will be interesting if they really do modify the "vaccine" for B4 and B5 and release globally by October. I highly doubt it tho...

Both Pfizer and Moderna have already done so but it is going thru testing/approval right now.  And even if they become available in other countries by then will Thailand once again drag their feet in obtaining them?

[Isaan sailor]

1 minute ago, rwill said:

Both Pfizer and Moderna have already done so but it is going thru testing/approval right now.  And even if they become available in other countries by then will Thailand once again drag their feet in obtaining them?

They’ll probably drag out some SinoVac and relabel it for B4/B5.

[BKKBike09]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

In the past couple of weeks, two friends have posted positive for Covid, and they assume it could be one of the new variants.

Rigorous data-based analysis at its best.

 

Really, who cares about this stuff anymore? 

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, Phil1975 said:

The new MNRA process was supposed to mean modifying the "vaccine" quickly to keep up with the virus, but that has not happened at all. 

Agreed, and that's why we have a flu jab each year. But that does not protect from any new flu.

 coming after the vaccine was made.

 

Even if pharma could - or would - get the cost of the jabs down to say £5 a shot, they would still be raking in £35,000,000,000 a year if vaccinating the planet every year like the flu jabs.

[Henryford]

In the UK newspaper the Daily Mail today they are warning of the new most infectious variant BA.2.75 called "centaurus" ha ha. We are doomed.

[Bangkok Barry]

4 hours ago, stoner said:

covid is so 2020. 

Mass hospitalisations and deaths are so 2020. The virus is still around. But then, so are flu, cancer, leukemia....... And life goes on. But the lingering Covid cases offer the government the opportunity to control the people, as with the state of emergency.

[Bangkok Barry]

2 hours ago, Phil1975 said:

Current "vaccines" totally useless

Totally useless? Do you have a scientific study to link to to support this statement? I think the general consensus is that the vaccines so far have been highly successful in limiting the effect of Covid, although not eliminating it outright, and I've seen no reports that vaccines are 'useless' against the latest strain.

Edited July 14, 2022 by Bangkok Barry

[huangnon]

2 hours ago, Phil1975 said:

What a stupid question, of course they are not containable, they never were, and never will be. 

 

Current "vaccines" totally useless while big pharma rakes in billions on a "vaccine" developed nearly 3 years ago. The new MNRA process was supposed to mean modifying the "vaccine" quickly to keep up with the virus, but that has not happened at all. 

 

It will be interesting if they really do modify the "vaccine" for B4 and B5 and release globally by October. I highly doubt it tho...

Let's just hope the "safe" part of the "safe and effective" description of these jabs is accurate at least.

[JRG23]

What a strange question. Of course they are not. No where on earth can contain the next variants.
And you could argue that you should never try to contain a new variant. The history of disease shows that variants gradually become less pathogenic. Containment means no natural immunity. 

[kcpattaya]

Only God knows what these pharmaceutical companies spritz into our bodies.
ONE thing is for sure: None of them argue if "additional (booster-) shots" are required on annual basis"...
Source of the Corona Virus at the "wet market"???
No frecking way! That I am SURE of! 

[internationalism]

those 2 are not more contagious or more severe, just there are waves with new variants after the previous one infected a large part of population and can't spread (herd immunity).

As to protection from vaxes - it's already long since the the original jabs and minimum 3 month booster, some people had already 4th sometimes this year. But really it's worth take a booster just before a wave, not at set up times. 

That is why in the USA they think it's more serious this time. There is not such conclusion from Europe experience.

Some countries are getting masks again at public transport, some individual cities might also make their regulations above the national government.

There are rising cases in thailand, what what would be called the 6th wave would be end of summer - august-october 

 

[Guderian]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

COVID-19 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 sub-variants

Oh come on guys, this is soooo yesterday. You're supposed to be trembling in your boots at the prospect of the BA.2.75 sub-variant now, which has handily been nicknamed 'Centaurus'. I think they want you to picture it as looking something like this, lol...

 

 

Much more scary than a  blob with some spikes on it. But don't despair yet, the data so far show that it's no worse than the original Omicron virus, though it spreads even faster.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11011209/Netherlands-detects-Centaurus-Covid-subvariant.html

Edited July 14, 2022 by Guderian

[BangkokReady]

3 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Let’s all take a moment to reflect and give thanks to China/CCP for Covid—the gift that keeps on giving.

I'd like to see an honourable mention for the Thais who have managed to convince themselves that Westerners are to blame for covid and are all dangerous carriers of the virus.

[LosLobo]

45 minutes ago, JRG23 said:

What a strange question. Of course they are not. No where on earth can contain the next variants.
And you could argue that you should never try to contain a new variant. The history of disease shows that variants gradually become less pathogenic. Containment means no natural immunity. 

"Variants gradually become less pathogenic".

Do you have any evidence to support your claim perhaps a citation?

My understanding is that the mutation of viruses is random and some may be more and others may be less pathogenic and that viruses don’t inevitably evolve toward being less virulent. Evolution simply selects those that excel at multiplication, ability to  escape the immune response produced after vaccination or prior infection etc.

[LosLobo]

51 minutes ago, internationalism said:

those 2 are not more contagious or more severe, just there are waves with new variants after the previous one infected a large part of population and can't spread (herd immunity).

As to protection from vaxes - it's already long since the the original jabs and minimum 3 month booster, some people had already 4th sometimes this year. But really it's worth take a booster just before a wave, not at set up times. 

That is why in the USA they think it's more serious this time. There is not such conclusion from Europe experience.

Some countries are getting masks again at public transport, some individual cities might also make their regulations above the national government.

There are rising cases in thailand, what what would be called the 6th wave would be end of summer - august-october 

 

Omicron BA.4/BA.5 seem to more contagious but the jury may still be out about their severity.

 

New Covid subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are the most contagious yet – and driving Australia’s third Omicron wave | Coronavirus | The Guardian

[Millcx]

Are we going to believe these specialists that came out of the cupboards to be on tv or in the news … No … They just ain’t trusted with the fake data they spout 

[arithai12]

Eh eh, this time I spotted the name after "Opinion" and I saved myself the effort of reading even just one sentence. Proud of myself.