To sell or not to sell, that is the question for Thai Expats

[webfact]

file photo

 

OPINION | by Michael Bridge

 

Gone were the heady days when one could arrive at Don Muang airport and get THB75 to the pound and feel like a millionaire.

 

In fact, in the late 1990s, one pound actually reached THB92 for a brief period. Oh happy days.

 

The pound's recent lowest point was THB 36.6 in August 2019, and we know how miserable that felt.

 

Currently, the pound was worthTHB44.6 on July 28th certainly going up since THB42.07 was recorded in June.

 

Those getting funds from the States have seen the dollar climb from THB32.11 on February 18th to THB36.67 on July 28th, 2022.

 

So many of us are at least getting more Baht for our bucks or quids at the moment.

 

Trying to understand why is a tricky business for sure.

 

One would have thought that with Thailand’s travel industry demise, rising inflation, and uncertainty within the government, that the baht would be even weaker.

 

Hedging ones bet

 

OK when things get tougher in the old day’s people would hedge their bets by buying gold, however that has not been the case this past six months.

 

Back on January 27, 2022, a gram of gold was going for $57.84 and on July 26th it was down to $55.23 a gram. 

 

Even when Russia invaded Ukraine back in March gold only went up to $66.42 a gram for a short spell. 

 

Meanwhile those clever investors who sold their bitcoins some time ago made a pretty penny or ten thousand, I am sure.

 

However how many have now been caught with expensive real estate investments based on a buoyant crypto market, only to wake up to a huge mortgage and little in crypto value to support it left.

 

Seems the Dollar is offering a safer route at the moment, as in uncertain periods such as we are experiencing today, people have tended to support the world’s largest economy.

 

If you are lucky to still have a bundle of pounds or a wad of dollars, should you hold onto them or go to a reliable currency exchange and buy Thai Baht?

 

Who knows?

 

With the world’s economy in trouble and the cost of living rising will that mean the promised high season in Thailand is unlikely to materialize.

 

If China which has its own issues with a slow economy and coping with the Pandemic affecting its output, then decides to slow down on importing Thai goods and it stops investing in High-speed railway projects here, that will certainly hurt the economy.

 

Meanwhile, they may have gotten rid of Boris but is the possible new Prime Minister, the current Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, going to lift the UK economy with her planned tax cutting programmes?

 

OAP Biden seems to blunder from one crisis to another without really achieving much. 

 

Trump is breathing down his neck as well and is waiting to return in triumph.

 

And do we really want a mogul who does not pay his taxes back in the headmaster’s seat again?

 

I suppose the future is so uncertain that it may be better to take up playing golf and then join the LIV Golf tour and get some serious cash.

 

Good luck.

 

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[ezzra]

Not even Nostradamus using the biggest Chrystal ball could tell us what will tomorrow brings let alone next week, month or year, right no it's ail a crapshoot...

[Pattaya Spotter]

"OAP" is that an abbreviation for Old American President or old angry person ???? 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Pattaya Spotter

[blazes]

In my experience, you can make (much) more money by trading junior gold miners (in a safe political environment) than in buying gold bullion.

[Old Croc]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Trump is breathing down his neck as well and is waiting to return in triumph.

 

And do we really want a mogul who does not pay his taxes back in the headmaster’s seat again?

 

I suppose the future is so uncertain that it may be better to take up playing golf and then join the LIV Golf tour and get some serious cash.

That's what Trump is doing:

 

Trump defends hosting Saudi-backed LIV Golf tour amid backlash from 9/11 families - CBS News

[metisdead]

A post with a trolling image has been removed. 

 

A post with an unattributed chart has been removed as there was no link to the source of information. 

[heybruce]

When it comes to money and Thailand I advise the Vegas rule:  Never bring in more than you can afford to lose.

[BonMot]

I REALLY wish the older British expats would let this go as it's now beyond annoying.

 

I see you all sitting in Pattaya on beach road wearing b50 nylon running shorts, a singha singlet and b40 flip flops. As the group of three old geezers admire the trash walking up and down the footpath one says to the other...yeah, I remember when she'd cost me a fiver. The others would sigh and nod approvingly. Remember when I got 75 to the quid... The others would sigh. Yup, thems the days mates...

 

STOP for the love of God. It was 20 years ago.

Edited July 29, 2022 by BonMot

[Advocate]

1 hour ago, Advocate said:

Brits should suck it up and face reality.

 

Why is John Bull's oil and gas under Scottish waters?

 

The GBP has had a downward trajectory since the end of WW2 interrupted only by a brief period  during the North Sea oil boom (Scottish oil) from the 70s to the 80s which produced not only piles of oil money, but which boosted British industry. Smart Brits emigrated in the 1950s and 1960s.

 

Boris Johnson and Brexit is a disaster.

 

Smile, things could be worse.

The GBP is worth 25% of its 1940 value against the USD. It is still falling.

[Chongalulu]

 

Im not surprised he’s vexed by the factors fundamental to exchange rates. Not even a mention of inflation,the biggest issue facing the economies of much of the world and the impact on expats.

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by onthedarkside
news trolling comments removed

[Peterw42]

For your average expat, living off investments/assets, inflation is a good thing.

The interest rate on your savings goes up, the rent from your investment property goes up etc. Currencies are traded on actual values, GDP, inflation etc, and not speculation.

 

Some things I buy in Thailand have gone up, other things have actually gone down. Pure supply and demand comes into play. There is a demand for a 40 baht thai meal, so thats what is available and what they cost, there is no demand for a 400 baht burger, so nobody sells them anymore.

Personally, I'm probably in a better position nowadays than pre-covid. My rental/investment income has gone up more than increases in my outgoings. The exchange rate is a couple of points in my favor, there is a healthy competition for the baht in my pocket, reflected in realistic prices.

 

[stoner]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

If you are lucky to still have a bundle of pounds or a wad of dollars, should you hold onto them or go to a reliable currency exchange and buy Thai Baht?

wait this is a serious statement ?

[Lucky Bones]

Not even gunna read this mish-mash of history and guessing games.

Thinking this bloke is just banging the keyboard for the sake of it.

[crazykopite]

I’m not complaining I live a very comfortable life in Thailand but yes I remember the days when my monthly pension was in the 100,000s per month those days will never return but if it got to 50 bht to the £ I wouldn’t complain  I did get 46 bht via wise not so long ago I bring it in when and as required 

[userabcd]

Why are they always mentioning the 75 baht to 1 pound as if that were the norm.

 

The exchange rate was that due to a specific reason and for a short period of time.

[BangkokReady]

Quote

To sell or not to sell, that is the question for Thai Expats

Odd title.  The post speaks about foreign expats in Thailand. ????

[sandyf]

52 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

  Leaving the EU will prove to be a wise decision over the course of time.

Back to the future.

 

1970
The docks strike of 1970 was a major industrial action by dockers in the United Kingdom that raised fears of food shortages and led to a proclamation of a state of emergency by Queen Elizabeth II.
Dockers struck for a pay rise of £11 per week (£109 at 2003 prices) on 15 July 1970 and around 47,000 dockers were involved nationally. The strike seriously cut imports and exports and cost the British economy between £50 and £100 million (£495 and 990 million at 2003 prices). The British Army were stood by to protect food supplies but most dockers agreed to handle perishable goods and the strike was largely peaceful. The dockers lost £4 million (£40 million at 2003 prices) in wages.
A court of inquiry was convened under Lord Pearson and proposed an average 7% increase in pay. Though this was at first rejected by the dockers, it was ultimately accepted on 30 July.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docks_strike_of_1970

19 May – The government made a £20 million loan available to help save the financially troubled luxury car and aircraft engine manufacturer Rolls Royce.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_in_the_United_Kingdom

1971
The 1971 United Kingdom postal workers strike was a strike in the United Kingdom staged by postal workers between January and March 1971.
The strike was Britain's first national postal strike and began after postal workers demanded a pay rise of 15-20% then walked out after Post Office managers made a lower offer. The strike began on 20 January and lasted for seven weeks, finally ending with an agreement on Thursday 4 March. After voting over the weekend, the strikers returned to work on Monday 8 March 1971. The strike overlapped with the introduction of decimal currency in the U.K.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_United_Kingdom_postal_workers_strike

4 February – Rolls-Royce went bankrupt and was nationalised.
1 March – An estimated 120,000 to 250,000 "kill the bill" protesters went on strike against the 1971 Industrial Relations Act in London.
19 April – Unemployment reached a post-Second World War high of nearly 815,000.
24 June – The EEC agreed terms for Britain's proposed membership and it was hoped that the nation will join the EEC next year.
28 October: The House of Commons voted in favour of joining the EEC by a vote of 356-244.
Undated:Inflation stood at a 30-year high of 8.6%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_in_the_United_Kingdom

1972
9 January – The National Union of Mineworkers held a strike ballot in which 58.8% voted in favour. Coal miners begin a strike which lasts for seven weeks, including picketing of Saltley coke depot in Birmingham.
20 January – Unemployment exceeded 1,000,000 for the first time since the 1930s-almost double the 582,000 who were unemployed when Edward Heath's Conservative government came to power less than two years ago.
9 February – A State of emergency was declared as a result of the miners' strike.
23 June – The Chancellor of the Exchequer Anthony Barber announced a decision to float the Pound.
28 July – A strike by thousands of dockers led to the government announcing a state of emergency on 4 August.
6 November – The government introduced price and pay freezes to counter inflation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

[Peterw42]

People have short memories, the glory days of the high exchange rates were the last time world went through a cycle of high inflation etc. Current economic climate will probably lead to high exchange again BUT its not without its consequences. You may get double the exchange rate along with the price of any imports doubling, a huge increase in interest rates on any debt you have etc.

You may get more at the exchange booth, but the English breakfast at ye old replica English pub will be more, imported cheese will cost more than gold, the real value of a fixed pension will diminish.

[ikke1959]

Question is... why is the THB on the watchlist?...... I strongly believe that there is a lot of manipulation of the money in Thailand. If theCentral bank buys alot of US$ theTHB seems strong, but in fact it is caused by the bank and if the THB weakens they sell and get the profit..and start over again.. 

[IamNoone88]

There are always two sides to the forex coin. Inward remitters are benefitting and so will exports. Those sending funds overseas or importing or buying imported goods and raw materials are suffering - prices will/are increasing. The Dollar is too strong. Whatever it is .... we are either a victim or we benefit .... so manage it has to be managed accordingly ... no-one will else is going to help.

[thailand49]

When I first came here it was 25-1 thought that was 25 times better.  When I purchase my home it was 39-1 along with many major items like car and more land.  

My thought was one can't time the market what goes up got to come down so my philosophy has always been to kind of dollar cost and to draw a line at 30-1, I luckily have been successful in living on that number comfortably.

As the baht has weaken each month I socked the extra away for a rainy day which has now exceeded 100,000 baht.  

Never live beyond your means. 

[roquefort]

And the point of the OP is? That you can't predict the future?

Edited July 29, 2022 by onthedarkside
news trolling comment removed

[ThailandRyan]

Looks like the FED upped the basis points by another 75 basis points yesterday, well that's US time, lets see where that takes the USD.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/07/27/fed-raises-interest-rates-by-75-basis-points-again-as-investors-brace-for-recession/

 

At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee said Wednesday afternoon it voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate (the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend reserves) by 75 basis points, for a second time in a row, to a target range of 2.25% to 2.5%. 

 

I know that housing interest rates in the US will now go over 6% if they have not already.

Edited July 29, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[Iamfalang]

6 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

I know that housing interest rates in the US will now go over 6% if they have not already.

are you talking about mortgage rates? 

 

I think 30-year was around 5.3 to 5.6 in certain places, DOWN from last week.  Odds of it going up after this hike after this hike seems very, very unlikely.   Trend is up, so 6% should happen soon.  

 

Not really how these things work, usually.  and usually i'm wrong.  lol

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

11 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

are you talking about mortgage rates? 

 

I think 30-year was around 5.3 to 5.6 in certain places, DOWN from last week.  Odds of it going up after this hike after this hike seems very, very unlikely.   Trend is up, so 6% should happen soon.  

 

Not really how these things work, usually.  and usually i'm wrong.  lol

 

 

The basis point hike makes it more expensive to borrow and why rates for mortgages, yes sorry I did not place that in my post, will rise.  Let's see what the ex hange rates do. Today the dollar dropped to 36 26 Thb per $1.  Down almost a half of a thb.

[Rimmer]

Some off topic posts removed

[Thingamabob]

4 hours ago, BonMot said:

I REALLY wish the older British expats would let this go as it's now beyond annoying.

 

I see you all sitting in Pattaya on beach road wearing b50 nylon running shorts, a singha singlet and b40 flip flops. As the group of three old geezers admire the trash walking up and down the footpath one says to the other...yeah, I remember when she'd cost me a fiver. The others would sigh and nod approvingly. Remember when I got 75 to the quid... The others would sigh. Yup, thems the days mates...

 

STOP for the love of God. It was 20 years ago.

Message from an old git, "stop moaning"...

[Gknrd]

Alright , more boom boom for the buck... ????

[peterfranks]

1 hour ago, Iamfalang said:

Odds of it going up after this hike after this hike seems very, very unlikely.   Trend is up, so 6% should happen soon.  

Do you actually read what you write?

 

 

[kingstonkid]

LoL kiddies I can remember when a coke was 10 cents and I got 2 back for the bottle. Gas was 35 cents a gallon you could go on a date and spend 25 dollar and might get 3rd base at the drive in.

 

Now water is almost as expensive as Coke.  Gas is sold in liters and is over 2.00 there is no such thing as a drive in so getting anywhere is a dream.

 

Now I am in Los where fat old men wearing Leo tank top sandals and shorts that do up under there gut are still handsum as long as they gave 2000 baht in their pocket.

 

Quit complaining imagine if you had to live the life you have here in your home country.