Saying the quiet part out loud -- would success of the Move Forward Party agenda spell the end of the Golden Age for expats in Thailand?

[Lacessit]

9 minutes ago, mania said:

Actually every Go Fund Me page is another red flag

 

If anything I think any government in Thailand's near future will insist on a ex[pat visa extension having a health insurance policy or X-Million Baht in a separate account (not your visa account) that is accessible by hospitals should you be admitted unconscious

 

Basically as you said but sooner than later me thinks ????

As I understand it, the 800K baht on deposit is intended as insurance for medical events.

[mania]

Just now, Lacessit said:

As I understand it, the 800K baht on deposit is intended as insurance for medical events.

Strictly speaking no it is supposedly for one year living expenses which is kind of funny considering they make you keep it locked up at times.

 

But yes that aside not really as emergency medical fund because as above if you used them at certain times your visa extension would be jeopardized or worse.

 

Lastly these days 800k could be gone in less than a week in ICU

 

I had a friend just go thru 600k in 3.5 days due to Thrombectomy. So 800k expat deposit fund is not very reassuring to hospitals anyway

[Henryford]

When Thailand gets in the same class economically/culturally as Singapore then yes kiss goodbye to expat status (unless you are very rich). But that is at least 50 years away, if ever.

[bignok]

5 hours ago, Chicksaw said:

Why would the new government or any government for that matter care about a cohort of wrinkly pensioners riding bar stools to meet the Lord?

Agree. They don't care imo. They care about tourists though but don't seem to understand how to manage the process.

[Dan O]

It would takes a few decades to pull off a move to a high level country as there are so many basic fundentals to be changed to have that occur. Older generations will need to die off and younger generations will slowly change some areas but it would be a long process

[KhunLA]

3 minutes ago, Henryford said:

When Thailand gets in the same class economically/culturally as Singapore then yes kiss goodbye to expat status (unless you are very rich). But that is at least 50 years away, if ever.

Not seeing it in my lifetime, 2 more elections at best.   Something for the newly retired to think about, though retiring here isn't as attractive as it was 20 yrs ago, with other options available.

 

Hindsight, I think I would have simply stayed in USA, bought a couple more houses to rent out, to supplement the higher cost of living (taxes/healthcare).

 

or not, as so easy to go 'green' here vs USA, thanks to CH.  USA's anti-CH stance make going green there very expensive.

[bignok]

38 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

Some of us have families here... 

People leave their families all the time in the west. 

[KhunLA]

5 hours ago, Chicksaw said:

Why would the new government or any government for that matter care about a cohort of wrinkly pensioners riding bar stools to meet the Lord?

Because when they fail, and their incompetence is exposed, they go nationalistic, and foreigner are an easy target to blame and distract from their domestic policy failures.

 

Same reason immigration is a top political talking point in the west ...

... DISTRATCTION

[Kenny202]

I think it is inevitable the country will change over time irrespective of the leader. It has changed so much in the 10 years I have been here. Education is slowly but surely improving and the people are becoming more aware of what's what. As for a mass round up / boot out of expats I just don't see any reason for it. I think generally the average expat, even a guy with on a pension income would put around 40k per month into the community. And I don't think we are generally regarded as troublesome. If they tighten up immigration / visa's etc it may put people using agents etc under pressure but man, that is a huge culture change........Whomever is in charge may want to overhaul corruption etc and have the best of intentions but in the short term (5 -10 years) will be like moving a mountain. We (including myself sometimes) bag out Thailand and it's processes etc but on the whole it is a very tolerant, cheap, easy to live country. Even with all the complaints about visas and IO's I am sure it would be 200% easier to obtain / maintain a visa in Thailand than most of our own countries.  

 

As far as the cost of living going up here under a new government it has increased dramatically under the previous government...in most cases due to monopolies or seemingly just because they can (recent electricity hikes without any apparent reason). There is a huge percentage of the population here in serious debt and on very low incomes. The government would be very aware of this and an honest caring government would want to do anything to prevent worsening the situation. Imagine the loan defaults alone. The country would go into immediate depression. I see the new government as a huge positive improvement should they be allowed to govern but any change here is going to come slowly and it will have to start with education of the people. Any real change will take many years 

[Walker88]

Good intentions and campaign promises are one thing, but reality tends to intrude.

 

The world is awash in productive capacity. It doesn't need another Singapore or China or Germany. There is no idle space sitting out there waiting for a 'developed' Thailand to assume, even if Thailand could up its game to developed status in the term of one election cycle. There is a process to becoming a developed state, and Thailand has a long way to go before it could have a Silicon Valley or be cutting edge in any 21st Century technology.

 

Thailand's economic success over the last decade or two was the result of two things: FDI because it was cheap, and debt. All that FDI did not come to Thailand because of the 'highly educated workforce'. All that FDI has a cycle, too, and when plants become obsolete, sometimes they just pick up and move to the next cheap place.

 

Maybe it could become more difficult for expats to reside in Thailand, but economic development is not going to be the cause. Nationalism, maybe, but not economics.

 

The potential new PM is quite international, and whatever his long term goals for Thailand might be, he is experienced enough to know development isn't going to happen from within. It will require friendly relations with those who can aid Thailand. He is unlikely to alienate the very nations he will need, even if their retired expats are of minimal use to Thailand. He will have other priorities than worrying about Western pensioners.

 

Of more concern to those pensioners would be a Party who might pander to Thais who suffer from xenophobia, though even that would be unlikely to change things in the near term. If Thai Rak Thai couldn't do that, little is on the horizon that might.

 

If I were a pensioner living here, I wouldn't be too worried.

[mokwit]

9 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

In Pattaya/Jomtien it is already shut down. Anyone who got one in last 6 weeks please prove me wrong.

 

What is happening? Any more details?

[OJAS]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The topic here poses the question that assuming success of the Move Forward Party to propel Thailand into a "higher level" nation (and that is of course a core part of their goals) would that result in a much harder time for at least some categories of expats?

Apart, possibly, from jacking up minimum financial requirements and/or making all those seeking retirement extensions subject to the mandatory health insurance requirement regardless of which category of non-imm visa they originally (or most recently) used to enter Thailand, it strikes me that the scope of any new MFP government's room for manoeuvre would be severely constrained by the 1979 Immigration Act. The question would then arise as to what priority they would attach to "reforming" this Act (by which I mean making life as difficult for us as is humanly possible - notwithstanding the "heroic" assistance which HM Government back in the UK is already cheerfully providing in that regard as far as we Brits are concerned, for instance). In the short term at least I don't see this as being a tip-top priority for any MFP government - in the way that it hasn't been for any government here in LOS over the last 20-30 years.

 

[bob smith]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The topic here poses the question that assuming success of the Move Forward Party to propel Thailand into a "higher level" nation

I for one hope that it does.

 

Get rid of all the scruffy pattaya riff raff preying on young girls and swilling beer at 8am.

 

go elsewhere please, Thailand doesnt need/want your type anymore. 

[recom273]

I think the golden years were pre-taksin.

 

For example, does anyone remember visa runs and border bounces without leaving home? Who needed dodgy retirement agencies then. Back in those days you could party all night, everywhere.

 

MF can’t do much worse to effect expats than the last PMs tenure. I don’t see it as just visa related, or whatever, but the economy certainly need needs a boost. 
 

Theres also a lot of things that need changing, not least the mentality of the nation before things improve or change radically. 

[LennyW]

No more impact than any other government preceding them, foreigners need to realize Thailand is not focused on us one way or another. Remember all the doomsayers when Prayut took power.... yet we are still here. Dont loose sleep over it.

[Dan O]

10 hours ago, Pouatchee said:

bigger fish to fry. first thing he needs to do is address the education problem. a multi-cultural environment benefits thailand. if he wishes to send his culture to the golden age of the mid 1930's then he will get rid of us. we will soon see his true colors

Multi-cultural society benefits the country long term but is far from. a top priority.

 

They need reform in educatuon that will take decades to actually correct. They need effective infracture remodeling and correction, they need judicial reform and legislative law reform, police and Immigration  restructuring. They need to separate the military from the political system. They need to end corruption and kickback payment systems.

 

The list can go on and on. They may well at some point adrress the visa structure to eliminate the ability of so many"expats" from being able to abuse and play the system long term but I dont see that happening until they can develop other forms of nation economy so they are not bound to the tourist dollar so heavily.

 

Look to Japan and Germany as examples of the time it takes to rebuild a nation, not through war destruction but the general restucturing and rebuild a country in the terms of time. 

[brianthainess]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

What do you think? Am I way off base or do you agree?

Way off base, that I agree with. 

[Bday Prang]

                 

                    I share the  concerns expressed by the OP

                   Things will change over time , that is the nature of the world and of life in general, Thailand's governments have never proactively sought or attempted to improve the lot of expats ( why would or why should they?) 

                   Many governments seeking to garner support from the electorate , or in an attempt to hide their incompetence  will often resort to nationalism, as a way to appeal to people's baser instincts or as a way  direct attention away from their own failings, and that will, in essence, rarely produce any benefits for foreigners living here or any other country

                 I don't understand why so many people seem to think that this new political party is going to herald the beginning of a total change in culture and propel Thailand into a carbon copy of singapore (god forbid) or anywhere else for that matter.  Since when have politicians anywhere ever fulfilled any of their promises ( except Anutin lol) 

                  It is quite bizarre that so many people on this forum seem to believe all the predictable pre election promises from the MFP and appear to discount the strong possibility that Pita is just another wealthy Thai looking to get his nose in the trough at any cost  The same as all the rest of them

                 The promises and rhetoric are only intended to attract voters, once elected, the pre election pledges are invariably forgotten about, in my opinion very little will change 

                   In the unlikely event that there are any significant changes, the likelihood is that they will by nature have a negative impact on foreigners, certainly any improvements in this developing country's economy are unlikely to be matched by similar improvements in our home countries economies, which are all pretty much in decline, and will invariably result in a higher cost of living and no doubt higher financial requirements regarding long term visas etc

                   Any improvement at all will be very unlikely and purely  an unintended consequence 

                   As far as I'm concerned it's always been  a case of "better the devil you know" and I can't think of anything Prayuth's administration  did that has caused major problems for me personally

                 . People should be careful what they wish for.    

 

[Lacessit]

2 hours ago, mania said:

Strictly speaking no it is supposedly for one year living expenses which is kind of funny considering they make you keep it locked up at times.

 

But yes that aside not really as emergency medical fund because as above if you used them at certain times your visa extension would be jeopardized or worse.

 

Lastly these days 800k could be gone in less than a week in ICU

 

I had a friend just go thru 600k in 3.5 days due to Thrombectomy. So 800k expat deposit fund is not very reassuring to hospitals anyway

You may be right, I keep 500K in a separate account for medical issues anyway. Touch wood, I have not needed it yet.

[Kwasaki]

6 hours ago, Airalee said:

Que sera sera

Exactly what I thought when reading title, if some here want to worry about stuff let me. 

[Bday Prang]

52 minutes ago, Dan O said:

Multi-cultural society benefits the country long term but is far from. a top priority.

 

They need reform in educatuon that will take decades to actually correct. They need effective infracture remodeling and correction, they need judicial reform and legislative law reform, police and Immigration  restructuring. They need to separate the military from the political system. They need to end corruption and kickback payment systems.

 

The list can go on and on. They may well at some point adrress the visa structure to eliminate the ability of so many"expats" from being able to abuse and play the system long term but I dont see that happening until they can develop other forms of nation economy so they are not bound to the tourist dollar so heavily.

 

Look to Japan and Germany as examples of the time it takes to rebuild a nation, not through war destruction but the general restucturing and rebuild a country in the terms of time. 

              Yeah right ! multiculturalism has really improved the UK. and everywhere else     I don't think 

"They need, they need , they need"   they don't actually "need" to do anything least of all become a clone of any western or so called 1st world country

              Why this obsession by some on here with people "abusing" the immigration system , do you  work for immigration ? your concerns seem to be at odds with your desire for multiculturalism

              The current system works for them, if it did not they would change it, as indeed they have in the past and no doubt will do in the future if they so wish.

              Nobody is "abusing" anything, there are shortcuts that are meant to be taken and there are rules that are applied subjectively, for the benefit of all concerned, that's how things work here  generally and not just in immigration matters

             If I want to see an example of failed immigration policies I simply look to my home country The UK. where members of the indigenous population are quickly becoming 2nd class citizens. I hope that never happens here and I am confident that it never will

 

 

[Dan O]

21 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

              Yeah right ! multiculturalism has really improved the UK. and everywhere else     I don't think 

"They need, they need , they need"   they don't actually "need" to do anything least of all become a clone of any western or so called 1st world country

              Why this obsession by some on here with people "abusing" the immigration system , do you  work for immigration ? your concerns seem to be at odds with your desire for multiculturalism

              The current system works for them, if it did not they would change it, as indeed they have in the past and no doubt will do in the future if they so wish.

              Nobody is "abusing" anything, there are shortcuts that are meant to be taken and there are rules that are applied subjectively, for the benefit of all concerned, that's how things work here  generally and not just in immigration matters

             If I want to see an example of failed immigration policies I simply look to my home country The UK. where members of the indigenous population are quickly becoming 2nd class citizens. I hope that never happens here and I am confident that it never will

 

 

You apparently didn't understand what I wrote, so you can read it again. I have no western agenda, just common sense from being here and seeing and living with the truth of thailand 

 

Your statements are canned comments typical of people that like to feel entitled while stayimg in another country. 

 

We will have to disagree andd that's OK. 

 

Have a great day

[Will B Good]

1 minute ago, Dan O said:

where members of the indigenous population are quickly becoming 2nd class citizens

55555

[spidermike007]

Nothing to worry about. Even if they succeeded in raising the minimum wage, and other policies, it would affect us a little bit, but not alot. I do not think many of the other policies would affect us, and I think Pita would select ministers who are considerably less xenophobic, and afraid of the outside world, than Cha Cha did. Just think Anutin and Big Joke. About as racist as they come. 

[Smokey and the Bandit]

12 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

In Pattaya/Jomtien it is already shut down. Anyone who got one in last 6 weeks please prove me wrong.

 

So you must have information alluding to that? Would you care to elucidate?

[Dan O]

1 hour ago, Will B Good said:

55555

I never wrote the quote you posted from me   so please correct it to whoever did say that 

[1FinickyOne]

4 hours ago, bignok said:

People leave their families all the time in the west. 

I would have thought that it would have been clear that my comment was personal - - not about everyone in the western world... 

[Mike Teavee]

5 hours ago, mfd101 said:

As for this 'gay' (actually rather serious & sober) pensioner, the moment the gay marriage bit comes thru

As an aside, There is a Visa Agent in Pattaya (Soi Post Office / Soi 13/2) that has a sign in their window saying something like “Visa for Man with Man” (it’s been a while so don’t quote me on that). 
 

Agency is a few doors down from Maneerat as you’re walking to the beach. 

 

Back to OP: I don’t think the Government per se will pose a danger to us retired Expats, but the general cost of living increases (which have been quite severe for the past couple of years) will… Especially for Brits living on frozen state pensions 

 

Obviously government policy can/will influence the rate of increase but any government that causes it to rise too high too fast won’t last very long here. 
 

 

[Mike Teavee]

12 hours ago, soi3eddie said:

In Pattaya/Jomtien it is already shut down. Anyone who got one in last 6 weeks please prove me wrong.

 

My mate got his annual Non-IMM O extension (finances facilitated by the Agent) at Jomtien last week. 
 

I was surprised not that he got it, but by the fact they were able to do it 90 days before it was due (normally 45 at Jomtien). 
 

Cost was 12,500b same as last year. 

[Bluetongue]

Interesting OP. Imho low wages for basic and unskilled work, cheap food and locally produced goods and women (mostly) with desirable characteristics are the things that make it easy to stay here. The new Government wont be changing the women. However they are likely at some stage to try to increase wages which will have upward pressure on food and goods. I have always tried to have a bit of leeway for this sort of thing and indeed my income from different sources has gone up. The gorillas in the room are the exchange rate and China, and I can't predict either except I will try. Over the medium term I think the Chinese will want more and more food imports from Thailand and the baht is likely to go up. Situation normal then.