Thailand's surging baht shatters expat dreams of easy retirement

[fruitman]

I remember that US-hedgefunds were all joining together against the euro, they all went long in the dollar...and it worked, the euro went down...it was a few years ago.

 

Now why are they not playing with the baht? Or why are the Thai billionaires not all buying long in the baht because there's not much space left for it to strengthen...much more room on the weak side of the baht me thinks.

 

And if big money like that is buying long there's a higher chance it will go and they 'll make a load of money.....

 

Or is it impossible for them to buy long/short in the Thai baht since the market is protected? In that case they could swap bahts for euro/usdollar....Or will the billionaires now wait patiently for the baht to go down and loose a lot of their fortune??

[rumak]

8 hours ago, moto77 said:

you can probably even expect quantitative easing.

Very funny when those here believe the "surging baht" nonsense.  Even I finally figured out what quantitative easing really means.   It means those pillars of so called democracy ( US, Aus, England, )  turn on the printing press and just poof   another 200 billion in currency appears.   

Your lives are governed by a very select club, my friends.   AND YOU AIN'T IN IT      ????

 

[PatOngo]

May the surge continue, I've been paid in Thai baht for the last 2 years and I am laughing all the way to the bank...Thanks Thailand, it's one favour you have done me! ????

[ICELANDMAN]

No bath not strong he is like the stable Swiss franc because the Thais government has not made large debts, having about 45% of debt on the PIB, instead it is the currencies of countries like England, Australia and New Zealand to have high public debts, see how incredibly the value of housing in these countries has increased, which means that the currency has devalued by 50%.
The fault is not of the Thailand but of your governments that stone your money. A social state like these countries has no future but is doomed to failure.

Edited October 5, 2019 by ICELANDMAN

[Tayaout]

37 minutes ago, PatOngo said:

May the surge continue, I've been paid in Thai baht for the last 2 years and I am laughing all the way to the bank...Thanks Thailand, it's one favour you have done me! ????

But were you paid a living wage? 

[Duck J Butters]

21 hours ago, LazySlipper said:

Really? The THB is strong and hurting expats lifestyle?

 

Let me get my reading glasses... must have missed something.

I know right? Plus, Thailand isn’t cheap. You don’t retire to Thailand because it’s cheap, you retire here for the awesome and fun lifestyle. “townhouse, pickup truck and motorcycle” are all way cheaper in the USA. 
 

You might as well just retire in Hawaii, USA if you want cheap and tropical. I just bought a giant 5 bedroom house on the big island of Hawaii for $250k. Yes, the land is next to a Volcano but meehhh...it was a great deal and I’m not there often enough to really worry. I live in Phuket but sometimes like to venture to Hawaii. Hawaii is very boring compared to Phuket but you won’t find any 5 bed homes with an acre of land in Phuket for such a low rate.

 

15 million baht is the minimum price to get a decent house in Phuket. And I’m sure other areas of Thailand aren’t much cheaper. I was up in my wife’s hometown of Chiang Rai last month and was shocked by how little 10 million baht will get you. Not much. The homes / architecture in Chiang Rai are very undeveloped so it was shocking to me that these square boxes of cement would cost me $300k. 
 

The one thing about the USA is that it’s amazing bang for buck. It’s a very boring country but you get amazing quality for fairly cheap. Cars in the US are about 50% cheaper than they are in Thailand and gas is also cheaper. Our food is expensive but it’s also very high quality, pesticide free and not loaded with cancerous junk.
 

Point being, you don’t retire to Thailand because it’s cheap. It’s definitely not cheap if you expect to maintain the same standard of living you had in the West. I would argue that it’s twice as expensive to retire in Thailand. I mean my God, my wife’s sister just dropped $180k on a Mercedes here in Thailand that you can get for $65k in the US. And if you don’t want to eat food loaded with msg and cancerous pesticides, you’re going to need to shop at Villa or Gourmet Market which is twice the cost of Whole Foods in the US. 

Thailand isn’t cheap. 
 

If you’re American, the increased cost of living in Thailand vs America is offset by the foreign earned income exclusion. So for me, it’s actually cheaper to live in Thailand vs the USA ( while maintaining the exact same standard of living ) but that’s only because of the massive tax break I get. And other countries, you probably don’t have to pay any tax at all so yeah, Thailand can still be cheaper for you. 

[DLock]

Swings and roundabout.

 

I earn all my money in Thailand, and obviously, the exchange rates make traveling and importing things good value....at the moment.

 

But it hasn't always been that way in the past where my Thai baht was worth considerably less. And it won't always be that way.

 

Back then, it was all cheers for the International currency against the baht, and no sympathy for those that earn money in Thailand, but I/we didn't complain. It was what it was. We stayed in Thailand.

 

Now that the currency cycle is in the Thai baht favor (for whatever reasons), I am doing everything I can to take advantage and hedge for when the cycle reverses.

 

Most of you were in this exact same position as I am in at some point. Did you think of the future and save/plan/hedge for a currency position that was obviously never going to stay where it was...and its not as if the writing has not been on the wall for years...

 

What did you do?

[moto77]

1 hour ago, fruitman said:

I remember that US-hedgefunds were all joining together against the euro, they all went long in the dollar...and it worked, the euro went down...it was a few years ago.

 

Now why are they not playing with the baht? Or why are the Thai billionaires not all buying long in the baht because there's not much space left for it to strengthen...much more room on the weak side of the baht me thinks.

 

And if big money like that is buying long there's a higher chance it will go and they 'll make a load of money.....

 

Or is it impossible for them to buy long/short in the Thai baht since the market is protected? In that case they could swap bahts for euro/usdollar....Or will the billionaires now wait patiently for the baht to go down and loose a lot of their fortune??

Why would US hedge fund managers care about the Baht? LOL

[ICELANDMAN]

11 minutes ago, Duck J Butters said:

I know right? Plus, Thailand isn’t cheap. You don’t retire to Thailand because it’s cheap, you retire here for the awesome and fun lifestyle. “townhouse, pickup truck and motorcycle” are all way cheaper in the USA. 
 

You might as well just retire in Hawaii, USA if you want cheap and tropical. I just bought a giant 5 bedroom house on the big island of Hawaii for $250k. Yes, the land is next to a Volcano but meehhh...it was a great deal and I’m not there often enough to really worry. I live in Phuket but sometimes like to venture to Hawaii. Hawaii is very boring compared to Phuket but you won’t find any 5 bed homes with an acre of land in Phuket for such a low rate.

 

15 million baht is the minimum price to get a decent house in Phuket. And I’m sure other areas of Thailand aren’t much cheaper. I was up in my wife’s hometown of Chiang Rai last month and was shocked by how little 10 million baht will get you. Not much. The homes / architecture in Chiang Rai are very undeveloped so it was shocking to me that these square boxes of cement would cost me $300k. 
 

The one thing about the USA is that it’s amazing bang for buck. It’s a very boring country but you get amazing quality for fairly cheap. Cars in the US are about 50% cheaper than they are in Thailand and gas is also cheaper. Our food is expensive but it’s also very high quality, pesticide free and not loaded with cancerous junk.
 

Point being, you don’t retire to Thailand because it’s cheap. It’s definitely not cheap if you expect to maintain the same standard of living you had in the West. I would argue that it’s twice as expensive to retire in Thailand. I mean my God, my wife’s sister just dropped $180k on a Mercedes here in Thailand that you can get for $65k in the US. And if you don’t want to eat food loaded with msg and cancerous pesticides, you’re going to need to shop at Villa or Gourmet Market which is twice the cost of Whole Foods in the US. 

Thailand isn’t cheap. 
 

If you’re American, the increased cost of living in Thailand vs America is offset by the foreign earned income exclusion. So for me, it’s actually cheaper to live in Thailand vs the USA ( while maintaining the exact same standard of living ) but that’s only because of the massive tax break I get. And other countries, you probably don’t have to pay any tax at all so yeah, Thailand can still be cheaper for you. 

I agree with you just not paying taxes, it's even more convenient to live in Thailand but it's just a small saving. Living in Thailand is a personal choice that can be diminished by the ability of the IO to become less attractive.

 

 

[gk10002000]

33 minutes ago, Duck J Butters said:

I know right? Plus, Thailand isn’t cheap. You don’t retire to Thailand because it’s cheap, you retire here for the awesome and fun lifestyle. “townhouse, pickup truck and motorcycle” are all way cheaper in the USA. 
 

You might as well just retire in Hawaii, USA if you want cheap and tropical. I just bought a giant 5 bedroom house on the big island of Hawaii for $250k. Yes, the land is next to a Volcano but meehhh...it was a great deal and I’m not there often enough to really worry. I live in Phuket but sometimes like to venture to Hawaii. Hawaii is very boring compared to Phuket but you won’t find any 5 bed homes with an acre of land in Phuket for such a low rate.

 

15 million baht is the minimum price to get a decent house in Phuket. And I’m sure other areas of Thailand aren’t much cheaper. I was up in my wife’s hometown of Chiang Rai last month and was shocked by how little 10 million baht will get you. Not much. The homes / architecture in Chiang Rai are very undeveloped so it was shocking to me that these square boxes of cement would cost me $300k. 
 

The one thing about the USA is that it’s amazing bang for buck. It’s a very boring country but you get amazing quality for fairly cheap. Cars in the US are about 50% cheaper than they are in Thailand and gas is also cheaper. Our food is expensive but it’s also very high quality, pesticide free and not loaded with cancerous junk.
 

Point being, you don’t retire to Thailand because it’s cheap. It’s definitely not cheap if you expect to maintain the same standard of living you had in the West. I would argue that it’s twice as expensive to retire in Thailand. I mean my God, my wife’s sister just dropped $180k on a Mercedes here in Thailand that you can get for $65k in the US. And if you don’t want to eat food loaded with msg and cancerous pesticides, you’re going to need to shop at Villa or Gourmet Market which is twice the cost of Whole Foods in the US. 

Thailand isn’t cheap. 
 

If you’re American, the increased cost of living in Thailand vs America is offset by the foreign earned income exclusion. So for me, it’s actually cheaper to live in Thailand vs the USA ( while maintaining the exact same standard of living ) but that’s only because of the massive tax break I get. And other countries, you probably don’t have to pay any tax at all so yeah, Thailand can still be cheaper for you. 

The foreign earned income exclusion can be great.  As I retire soon, I won't be working in Thailand.  My income will be from my investment stocks and bonds and funds dividends and interest as well as my social security.  US Fed taxes will unfortunately still apply, as it would to most people's pensions as it is NOT earned income.  I am a Florida state resident so I don't pay state income taxes.  Florida is pretty cheap to live in many areas.  and the beach waters in general are clean to swim in all up and down the East Coast

[Robert Tyrrell]

21 hours ago, holy cow cm said:

Even at 40,000 retirees times 800,000 is 32,000,000,000 baht or $1,049,859,924.54. That is a lot of money that is free for the using by the banks. That right there can spin the Thai economy.

Some do half of that at 400K Marriage Stay of Extension/ VISA  ???? 

[moto77]

2 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

The foreign earned income exclusion can be great.  As I retire soon, I won't be working in Thailand.  My income will be from my investment stocks and bonds and funds dividends and interest as well as my social security.  US Fed taxes will unfortunately still apply, as it would to most people's pensions as it is NOT earned income.  I am a Florida state resident so I don't pay state income taxes.  Florida is pretty cheap to live in many areas.  and the beach waters in general are clean to swim in all up and down the East Coast

Yeah, I have a condo in downtown St Petersburg.
There's nowhere else in the US I'd live. Cali is nice, but the taxes are pretty high. New England is too cold. The rest of the place is an ignorant backwater populated by hillbillies and religious nuts. 

[fruitman]

24 minutes ago, moto77 said:

Why would US hedge fund managers care about the Baht? LOL

To make big big money out of it...if you now buy cfd's long for 1 billion us$ that can make a huge profit cause cfd's use a multiplier. 

 

If you were a Thai billionaire and read that the baht will go down, would you just sit out the ride down or do something??

 

Big chance the baht can go down by 20-50% or even more..if you get the multiplier on that, times 10 or 20 or even 50 you can easy get rich...the only problem is when the baht strengthens more.....then the multiplier works against you.

[Pique Dard]

well, thailand isn't the only country out there! why not to try the philippines , or ever nearer laos, vietnam or cambodia?

[moto77]

3 minutes ago, fruitman said:

To make big big money out of it...if you now buy cfd's long for 1 billion us$ that can make a huge profit cause cfd's use a multiplier. 

 

If you were a Thai billionaire and read that the baht will go down, would you just sit out the ride down or do something??

 

Big chance the baht can go down by 20-50% or even more..if you get the multiplier on that, times 10 or 20 or even 50 you can easy get rich...the only problem is when the baht strengthens more.....then the multiplier works against you.

Good point. 

[fruitman]

Just now, moto77 said:

Good point. 

Google the name George Soros...he's a billionaire who got rich by hedging currencies....and there are many more very large hedgefunds who play this game...they join together and put billions of $ on their gamble...they did the same against the euro.

 

Profits can be extraordinary...and if those guys also have large amounts of bahts and start dumping them all together it can go down really fast.

 

Currency trading is just a game and these days anyone can do it at home online 24hr...

[kiwikeith]

22 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

In fairness, from the point of view of British expats, the strong baht is only the tip of the iceberg. Brexit and our idiotic government are the main villains with regards to current exchange rates.

 

22 hours ago, Dmaxdan said:

In fairness, from the point of view of British expats, the strong baht is only the tip of the iceberg. Brexit and our idiotic government are the main villains with regards to current exchange rates.

Yes, as soon as GB get out of the european union the better.

 

Then the pound will find new strenght as will the aussie and the kiwi

[emptypockets]

13 hours ago, whitemouse said:

 

Most retirees probably do not spend more than 25.000 baht. After few years the girl scene becomes boring, and nothing else really costs much, certainly not food and coffee.

I love to read how our usual billionaire class posters keep bragging how they have  such diverse  portfolios (while the rest of us, lesser mortals, don't even know what portfolio means), and how they planned ahead a 50 percent drop of some currencies. Basically, bragging  about how their pension is few  hundred dollars more than next guy's

Why do you think all retirees are pensioners? I get it that when the only people you know are on a pension you automatically assume every expat is a pensioner.That is not the case.

No chance of me getting a pension yet I will retire comfortably.

[emptypockets]

11 hours ago, bowerboy said:

 

One of the highest interest rates in Asia but take a look at the term deposit rates or savings account rates available at the bank (and this is on 1 million baht) and they are in the order of .25%. Compare that to Australia with term deposit rates around 1.75%.

 

The rich completely monopolize wealth here.

 

 

Compare like with like not savings against term deposits. A lot of savings accounts in Australia are so close to zero percent its not funny. Add on the 5 dollars a month account keeping fee and people can go backwards.

 

The rich completely monopolise wealth everywhere, and have done since time immemorial. Kings, Sultans, Pharoahs, Emporers,  etc

Edited October 5, 2019 by emptypockets

[Jingthing]

Here is my two cents, which is worth less than two cents here than before.

 

This topic is specifically about expat retirement in Thailand.

 

Thailand has a long well deserved reputation as "more affordable" for such people.

 

I see many posts here completely off topic to the actual topic.

 

It's about people bringing in their home currency.

 

It's not about earning money in Thailand. Hint -- retirement.

 

It's not about taxation in Thailand compared to home -- Thailand doesn't tax retired expats on their home country assets or income.

 

In my opinion, the vast majority of retired expats in Thailand were at least partly attracted here by the relatively low cost of living compared to their home countries. The same reason Americans move to Mexico (where American retired expats mostly move to). 

 

What Thailand has at least offered in the past is the chance of a higher standard of living than at home for the same money and indeed in many cases a chance to retire at all or retire much earlier when that wouldn't have been possible at all in the home country.

 

I really don't think many RETIRED people (as opposed to corporate expat package) really expat to match everything here with the home country. Only a small percentage of retired expats are buying high end cars for example which are indeed more expensive here.

 

As far as housing there are so many variables. But imagine finding a small apartment in a tropical beach resort city in the U.S. for perhaps a rent of 300 dollars a month. So at the lower end spending, you get quite a lot here that could translate into homeless levels in the U.S. Plus there is massive availability of such almost free by U.S. standards housing in Thailand. 

 

So yes with a combination of exchange rate movement, inflated prices, and onerous visa rule changes, yes, it's a fact that Thailand is less affordable and will be less attractive to the same kinds of people that were attracted here before, and are already long settled here.

Which begs the question for prospective wealthier future retired expats -- you really can't do better than Thailand for the money that you have to spend?

Edited October 5, 2019 by Jingthing

[thaibook]

I was just happening the other day to be looking at some old papers from the early 80s.  Among them were some hotel price lists, in THB and USD.  The exchange rate was USD 1 = THB 20.  So expatriates now gt 50% more for their dollar.

 

It all depends on where you start and the currencies you use.  Obviously if most of your earnings is in one currency and most of your spend in another there will be periods when you benefit more and others when you lose out.  It is simple basic economics.  One needs to adjust tot he world and not always expect the world to adjust to one's desires.

 

[DLock]

5 years ago the Baht was at 55 to the GBP.

 

Every time it has a significant dip, these Groundhog threads emerge.

 

No one wants to see anyone struggle financially, but at the same time, relying on a currency conversion to maintain an stable income is very risky and it's not like it has been an overnight thing.

 

Earning money in Thailand, 5 years ago traveling to the UK was VERY expensive, but I lived and earned in Thailand, so it wasn't so bad. I didn't travel much.

 

But if I have lived in the UK 5 years ago, and made money in Thailand, I would have been in the same position a lot of people are in Thailand today.

 

Everyone would have said stop complaining and go back to Thailand where 1 baht = 1 baht.

 

Today, 1 GBP still = 1 GBP....I know what I'd be doing.

 

 

[GalaxyMan]

14 minutes ago, thaibook said:

I was just happening the other day to be looking at some old papers from the early 80s.  Among them were some hotel price lists, in THB and USD.  The exchange rate was USD 1 = THB 20.  So expatriates now gt 50% more for their dollar.

 

It all depends on where you start and the currencies you use.  Obviously if most of your earnings is in one currency and most of your spend in another there will be periods when you benefit more and others when you lose out.  It is simple basic economics.  One needs to adjust tot he world and not always expect the world to adjust to one's desires.

 

When I first came to LOS in 1983, I was getting 23 baht/US dollar. When I moved here to retire in 2016, I also moved all of my foreign currency to Thailand and converted it to baht, taking the one-time exchange rate hit. The fluctuations in the baht vs any other currency don't affect me, as I spend almost no money on imported anything. Local food and drink is perfectly acceptable. I'd stop looking at the baht as the problem, though its inflation, not much, really, can't go on forever. These things tend to correct themselves and balance out in the end. I'd look to the BS governments, UK, Aus, etc., and their disastrous policies that are trashing their respective currencies. Why is it always so much easier to blame someone else for your own stupidity? That's just...well, Trumpian, ya ask me. ????

 

Is it sad and/or regrettable that expats who can no longer meet the requirements for retirement in LOS are having to leave? Very, especially those who have been here long enough to establish families. The total lack of compassion by the Thai government with regards to its own citizens is the most appalling aspect, allowing, even forcing families to be torn apart.

[Bugsy777]

16 hours ago, emptypockets said:

Who was silly enough to consider moving to a South East Asian country with only a pension to support them?

A 'one size fits all' comment and quite unfair to many. I live and work in Australia and some years in the future, my wife and I may move to Thailand. However I know a fair few age pensioners who are struggling to survive here on the Australian age pension. Especially the single pension which is an absolute travesty. 

 

Out of necessity, they look at places where their meagre pension may actually support them. Thailand is one such place where just a few years ago this was possible. Now the single age pension does not even qualify for these people to get a retirement visa. Combine that with the rising Baht and Thailand is no longer an option.

 

One may even say, "should they stay home and starve or go to Thailand and only suffer malnutrition"?

 

Planning. Sometimes in life plans don't always go to plan. If there was a marriage break up late in life, well, good luck. Many older workers here are dumped from the workforce, cannot ever find another job, and subsist on a Newstart allowance of about $300.00 per fortnight. They must get by on this until they meet the rising pension age. A trap of pure vicioussness.

 

There are many tragedies that can befall the unfortunate and one of those is a casual disregard of their circumstances by fellow humans.

[kevin612]

The baht is going up again on Friday.

[emptypockets]

4 minutes ago, Bugsy777 said:

A 'one size fits all' comment and quite unfair to many. I live and work in Australia and some years in the future, my wife and I may move to Thailand. However I know a fair few age pensioners who are struggling to survive here on the Australian age pension. Especially the single pension which is an absolute travesty. 

 

Out of necessity, they look at places where their meagre pension may actually support them. Thailand is one such place where just a few years ago this was possible. Now the single age pension does not even qualify for these people to get a retirement visa. Combine that with the rising Baht and Thailand is no longer an option.

 

One may even say, "should they stay home and starve or go to Thailand and only suffer malnutrition"?

 

Planning. Sometimes in life plans don't always go to plan. If there was a marriage break up late in life, well, good luck. Many older workers here are dumped from the workforce, cannot ever find another job, and subsist on a Newstart allowance of about $300.00 per fortnight. They must get by on this until they meet the rising pension age. A trap of pure vicioussness.

 

There are many tragedies that can befall the unfortunate and one of those is a casual disregard of their circumstances by fellow humans.

Nobody contemplating retirement to Thailand from Australia should be relying on the pension. We have had compulsory superannuation with very generous salary sacrifice options for decades.

Marriage breakups, dumped from the workforce, on Newstart blah blah blah. Do you think that these people have earned the right to retire in Thailand? Do you think they are the only people who have done it hard?

I don't.

By the way I got divorced after 23 years when I was 44. Hooked up shortly after for 10 years and separated again at age 54. Both very expensive financially. I didn't fool myself I was going to take early retirement at 55 - I kept working - still am until I'm ready to retire. Financially I can retire any time, but personally I like to work. In other words I have taken personal responsibility, something of an alien concept to some.

 

I can assure you I come from a very working class family, born with a plastic spoon in my mouth.

[PatOngo]

3 hours ago, Tayaout said:

But were you paid a living wage? 

Well in excess, I work in construction management for international company.

[jvs]

Some people are saying  ,so many years ago i got less baht for my money.

True enough but look at what one baht bought you then and how much do you get now?

 

[Beggar]

The posters here complaining about the cost of living and the exchange rate. But you also have to be aware that we expats are only guests here and that Visa regulations can change at any time. If you stay here there is no guarantee that you will be allowed to continue like this forever. Your retirement extension is only valid for a year... So you always need to have a plan B - just in case. 

[Moo 2]

Let us stop blaming the World Economy, this is a blatant Thai Leaders manipulation for their own needs. 

Trying to insult people's intelligence is not very polite way to communicate.

 

 

"All the money I earned through cheating, I lost it by earning it honestly"