The THB - When does it end?!?

[Laza 45]

It will end when you go home to the wonderful place you came from.  

[AgMech Cowboy]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:28 PM, DaRoadrunner said:

Then they'll do a Gen Chavalit.

@DaRoadrunner  I did not like Chavalit, but it's not fair to only blame him.  The financial system here was fast and loose. The appearance was that there was no limit.  Everybody was getting rich, then a few big dollar embizzlment jobs, George Soros cashing out and bang, the balloon bust. But don't stick it all on Prime Minister Chavalit (even though he was a BM). He had lots of help.

[IAMHERE]

On 12/23/2019 at 10:40 PM, Traubert said:

Is that a tray of 18 eggs that have gone from 4baht each to 5baht each in 15 years?

 

Hold the front page!!!! ????

 15 years ago I got 40 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 10 cents.

Today's rate is closer to 30 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 16 cents.

That is near 60% rise.  Back of an envelope math.

Edited December 25, 2019 by IAMHERE
add sarcasm.

[sanemax]

6 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

 15 years ago I got 40 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 10 cents.

Today's rate is closer to 30 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 16 cents.

That is near 60% rise.  Back of an envelope math.

If you are in Thailand, you would be paying in Baht, rather than dollars

[ThomasThBKK]

9 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

 15 years ago I got 40 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 10 cents.

Today's rate is closer to 30 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 16 cents.

That is near 60% rise.  Back of an envelope math.

And 20 years ago you got 25 baht for the dollar...

 

>45 was on the height of the asian financial crisis, you got 45 thb per dollar for like 5 months in 2001, and that's it. it looks rather stable since then.... 

 

The exchange rate now is no different than it was in 2013, but that doesn't fit your guys narrative :d

Edited December 25, 2019 by ThomasThBKK

[brokenbone]

it will end when eu send back the tens of millions of eco refugees from all the sh!tholes of the world back where they belong

[easydoor]

15 years ago I always bought for 1000THB gasoline and they gave me for 1000THB of it. Now, 15 years later I still buy for 1000THB gasoline and they still give me for 1000THB, they never told me I have to pay more.......

[mokwit]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:36 PM, Kwasaki said:

And what would that be, most things for me are much the same price as 15 years ago and thanks that's good, maybe that's why the UK froze my govt pension. ????

Fruit on the street used to be 10bt, now 20bt. Coconuts used to be 10bt mid 2000's, then 15bt then 30bt then 40bt. Khao chee on the street used to be bt5 now bt10 - price never came down after rice price spike - represents a near doubling of food costs for the average Thai. To my knowledge these items are not imported (oil spike may have been taken advantage and price maintained when it came down).

[mokwit]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:36 PM, Kwasaki said:

And what would that be, most things for me are much the same price as 15 years ago and thanks that's good, maybe that's why the UK froze my govt pension. ????

Not everybody wants to/can eat the families chicken eggs, eat the family rice and cut those long green tree tips from the family tree like you.

 

Why do people come on here and extrapolate village subsistence to the rest of the country, being in and out in 5 minutes on 1 yr extension renewal when they live in Nakorn Nowhere etc etc.

[Bangkok Barry]

On 12/23/2019 at 10:05 PM, Ron jeremy said:

I find it rather funny, borderline hysterical that people still say that prices here have not risen in 15 years.

 

Not only do they rise, which happens everywhere. But whereas in any other country I've had experience of the prices rise by 2-3 percent, in Thailand they often increase by 10-30 percent at a time. Examples that immediately come to mind are a couple of dairy products. The cheese I used to buy went from 185 to 209, and butter from 89 to 109. Those are not small increases.

[Laza 45]

There are a number of things that affect exchange rates... mainly interest rates.. health of the economy..economic outlook (will GDP rise or fall)...foreign reserves held.. and the general trading condition between major players.

 

Thailand has been in a strong position with good growth, a high level of foreign currency held and low national debt. Even with low interest rates..1.6% at the moment, I think.. Thailand is seen as a safe haven for holding cash or bonds.. 

 

Australia has gone out of favour since the end of the mining boom with interest rates crashing and the economy looking shaky.   Another big factor is the US / China trade war. This trade war has hurt many countries not least Australia by creating less demand for the raw materials that the Aussie economy depends upon..

 

The trade war & Trump have hurt the US$ rate by creating uncertainty in the US economy.. I know it is booming.. but.. interest rates are low and Trump intends to keep them there if he possibly can.  This makes the US a less favorable place to park cash.. and the economy depends on quantitative easing.. printing money.. not something that generates a lot of confidence.  Trump's big tax cuts have stimulated the stock market but have not had a good effect on the overall economy.  Jobs have been created.. but with low pay.  Inflation is low and wage growth are low.. The rich are getting richer ..the poor are screwed..

 

All this bashing about greedy Thais doesn't make sense.. Thailand is an export economy and depends on a competitive currency to maintain a high level of exports..  Similarly the tourist industry (about 10% of GDP) depends on a competitive Baht..  A lower Baht would be desirable for both export and tourism..

 

Things are changing.. exports have been going down.. especially in the automotive industry.. the backbone of Thai exports.  The economy is faltering.. The government are changing policies to discourage parking money here.. The problem is that the government has very few options.. as almost all others do.  Very low interest rates make it difficult to make meaningful adjustments.  Dropping interest by .25%.. helps a bit but but is a drop in the ocean..

 

The US/China trade war is the thing to watch.. You may have noticed that a week or so ago The US made an announcement that indicated that at least the escalation of tariffs are on hold and China agreed to buy moree US farm product.  This bit of good new saw a rise in the US$.. not a lot but in the right direction.   If a comprehensive trade deal were made the US$ would jump.. Trump needs some wins going into election year.. he may be tempted to doing something dramatic.. but I'm not betting on it.. 

 

Merry Christma.. and a prosperous New Year..

 

 

 

 

[Bangkok Barry]

50 minutes ago, sanemax said:

57 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

 15 years ago I got 40 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 10 cents.

Today's rate is closer to 30 baht to the dollar so those eggs cost 16 cents.

That is near 60% rise.  Back of an envelope math.

If you are in Thailand, you would be paying in Baht, rather than dollars

Only if you are earning in baht. If your income is from overseas, as it is for many thousands of older residents here, then you are paying vastly more than before. Of course, that is also a major reason that tourism is down. The baht, exchanged from foreign currency, has made everything more expensive.

[RichardColeman]

You are concerned about the fall in the dollar, you try living with the pound ! That said I have taken to studying burning wooden stumps and looking in local farms to two headed cows

[digger70]

Our Aussie Dollar Lost 34%  since 2012 We Aussies know how you feel.    ???? 

It's not over yet, but I hope soon .  

[robsamui]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:36 PM, Kwasaki said:

And what would that be, most things for me are much the same price as 15 years ago and thanks that's good, maybe that's why the UK froze my govt pension. ????

PRICES in 2007 and 2019 (any with a ? are approx and from memory!)

(ps - based on what was happening on Samui)

Work Permit through an agent   3,200  -  6,000

Cheapo cigs per pkt   33   -   60

Cheapest beer in a bar   35   -   60
Half bottle Sang Som    90   -   155

Rent 1-bed house   4,000   -   8,000

Cheapest one-night bungalow   199   -   399

Petrol per ltr   19   -   29 (?)

Electricity - can't quote prices but I made a note it has doubled since 2005

Bread   24   -   50

Curry + rice in small Thai restaurant   55   -   80 to 120

Sausage & mash in Brit pub   160   -   295

Noodle soup on the street   25   -   50

Songthiew from Nathon to Mae Nam (8 Km?)   20   -   50

Bus to Had Yai   250   -   450

Train fare sleeper to BKK   400   -   800 (?)

Laundry per Kg   20   -   40

and many, many, many more

How can you be living in Thailand and still be paying the same as 15 years ago? 

 

And please, don't anyone insult our intelligence by letting us know that noodles in Ubon Bananatree are still 25 baht therefore prices in Thailand haven't doubled in the last 15 years!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2019 by robsamui

[ballpoint]

58 minutes ago, brokenbone said:

it will end when eu send back the tens of millions of eco refugees from all the sh!tholes of the world back where they belong

I agree that if the eco refugees living here were all to suddenly return to their own countries it would probably have some effect on the Baht, but why would the EU repatriate its citizens living in Thailand?

[tweedledee2]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:40 AM, Traubert said:

Is that a tray of 18 eggs that have gone from 4baht each to 5baht each in 15 years?

 

Hold the front page!!!! ????

Probably 30.  I paid 89 baht for 30 eggs at Big C Monday. Over the past four months the price increased from 77 baht to over 100. 

[wwest5829]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:15 PM, SteveK said:

Thailand is a country governed by very rich and very greedy people. Why would they ever sanction any actions to reduce their personal wealth? If you had billions of baht in the bank then a 5% drop in the baht would seriously hurt your ability to go abroad and buy Rolexes and Bentleys. It's just pure personal greed, they couldn't give a rat's ass about the Thai people who are eking out a living.

 

They are essentially manipulating the country to keep themselves rich. Screw tourism, exports, GDP or any of that stuff. They don't care about that. They just care about how rich they are.

 

It's laughable to think that the baht is worth so much. It's just pure corruption and manipulation.

Agree that Baht seems overvalued and the affect on my USD retirement is certainly being felt. As to control by the wealthy, not excusing but observing it is the same reason I cannot be retired in my own country and have the same living standard as here (getting dangerously close to me being outpaced in Thailand also).

[toofarnorth]

4 hours ago, colinneil said:

What you posted here is nonsense, go into any noodle shop, 10 years ago 20 baht, now 40/ 45 baht.

I buy dry dog food small bags because on my scooter i cannot carry large bags, 1 month ago 89 baht, last saturday 99 baht.

The coffee creamer i buy was in 1kg bags, now 900 gram, but still the same price.

Now i have given you 3 examples, but there are a lot more.

That sounds a lot for dog food Colin Now as I have only cats I can't compare but in the  pet food shop here the price has been the same for quite a while .  Whiskers which is the cats fav. is 80B kilo, the cheaper stuff is 50.

[JonnyF]

14 minutes ago, robsamui said:

PRICES in 2007 and 2019 (any with a ? are approx and from memory!)

(ps - based on what was happening on Samui)

Work Permit through an agent   3,200  -  6,000

Cheapo cigs per pkt   33   -   60

Cheapest beer in a bar   35   -   60
Half bottle Sang Som    90   -   155

Rent 1-bed house   4,000   -   8,000

Cheapest one-night bungalow   199   -   399

Petrol per ltr   19   -   29 (?)

Electricity - can't quote prices but I made a note it has doubled since 2005

Bread   24   -   50

Curry + rice in small Thai restaurant   55   -   80 to 120

Sausage & mash in Brit pub   160   -   295

Noodle soup on the street   25   -   50

Songthiew from Nathon to Mae Nam (8 Km?)   20   -   50

Bus to Had Yai   250   -   450

Train fare sleeper to BKK   400   -   800 (?)

Laundry per Kg   20   -   40

and many, many, many more

How can you be living in Thailand and still be paying the same as 15 years ago? 

 

And please, don't anyone insult our intelligence by letting us know that noodles in Ubon Bananatree are still 25 baht therefore prices in Thailand haven't doubled in the last 15 years!

 

 

 

 

 

 

That sounds about right. When you factor in the THB going from 65 to 39 to the pound you're looking at over 150% increases on some every day items in only 12 years.

 

Obviously it's not as bad up country (I spend 2 weekends a month on our farm near Korat and the rest of my time living/working in Bangkok so I can compare both pretty accurately) but it's still a significant increase no matter where you are.  

 

If I was to come here on holiday like I used to in 2005/2006 I reckon I'd need between 3000-4000 pounds for a decent 2 week holiday (including flights and hotels). That's just not realistic for a lot of people when they can get a cheap/short flight to the Spanish islands and get good food, cheap wine, clean beaches, clean air, proper police etc. 

 

It's no wonder European tourists are going elsewhere. Frankly I'm amazed it hasn't tanked more than it has when you factor in unfriendly slow immigration, deterioration of the bar scene etc. 

[colinneil]

1 minute ago, toofarnorth said:

That sounds a lot for dog food Colin Now as I have only cats I can't compare but in the  pet food shop here the price has been the same for quite a while .  Whiskers which is the cats fav. is 80B kilo, the cheaper stuff is 50.

Sorry i should have said 99 baht for a 2kg bag of dry dog food.

[Scott Tracy]

It doesn't stop. It never has stopped and never will. Deal with it.

[brokenbone]

23 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

I agree that if the eco refugees living here were all to suddenly return to their own countries it would probably have some effect on the Baht, but why would the EU repatriate its citizens living in Thailand?

sweden pay twice as much on immigrants as they do on national defense,

this comes at a cost, borrowing money and paying compounding interest

on insignificant others, ditto for most of eu, it should come as no

surprise euro is plummeting vs nations that doesnt spend its money

on insignificant others

 

the eco refugees in thailand is a different kettle of fish altogether,

thailand has the sense of making money on us instead of

spending money on us, you see the difference ?

Edited December 25, 2019 by brokenbone

[JonnyF]

2 minutes ago, Scott Tracy said:

It doesn't stop. It never has stopped and never will. Deal with it.

I disagree. I think the Baht has almost topped out and will very gradually weaken, but not crash.

 

It has to, it's simply not sustainable at current levels for an export/tourism based economy (even the government has acknowledged this).

[Henryford]

It's not the rich Thais that are manipulating the baht it's the stupid Western Governments. By following policies of money printing, fiscal deficits, trade deficits, low interest rates etc they are ensuring that western currencies will slowly go down in value. So the answer to your question is never.

[Matzzon]

On 12/23/2019 at 2:45 PM, Na Fan said:

When does it end ??

When you no longer can afford to stay and work in Thailand. After that you will never have to think about the Thai baht again.

[Chivas]

4 hours ago, jastheace said:

Iran was close to that also. i wouldn't worry about those figures

lol fella you stick to what you think you know and I'll stick to what 36 years in finance tells me I do know

[HHTel]

On 12/23/2019 at 8:45 PM, Na Fan said:

Since I've started working here, I have taken a hard TWENTY PERCENT loss in income, being paid in USD. It used to be 36-37, and now I don't even get 30 to the dollar anymore. All the while, local prices go up and up.

Aren't you lucky you're not a Brit.  Use to get 73 to the pound, now less than 40. Think positive, there's always someone worse off!

[Nanaplaza666]

On 12/23/2019 at 11:14 PM, Kwasaki said:

So typical of a silly  example.

The way I see it is my council tax in my village province for the land our house is on is 8 baht a year, in the UK it was a bit more than that. ????

 

My electric bill has been constant pretty much for years in Thailand, same water and gas.

Diesel 14 baht 15 years ago now 27 baht, not bad me thinks.

And you go on about about eggs, our eggs cost nowt and chickens eat family food leftovers. 

 

 

But you cannot say it's a lie your pound has dropped almost half it's valeu since 15 years ago hence everything being more expensive compared to overseas and compared to 15 years ago that's what they mean .

[Max69xl]

On 12/23/2019 at 9:36 PM, Kwasaki said:

And what would that be, most things for me are much the same price as 15 years ago and thanks that's good, maybe that's why the UK froze my govt pension. ????

You don't eat food? Prices at local markets have gone up. Streetfood is more expensive. Where do you buy stuff for the same price as 15 years ago? Beer and alcohol is much more expensive now compared to 15 years ago.