Will this be the last generation ?

[georgegeorgia]

This caught my eye in a thread I was reading 

 

“ This will be the last generation of retired expats coming to Thailand “

 

Do you believe its true ? Is the next generation eg those in their 30’s and 40’s going to retire to Thailand?
 

[FritsSikkink]

If they have a decent pension or saved money, yes

[Kadilo]

I don’t see why they won’t keep coming. 

It still holds far more appeal than retiring in the UK, granted you may need to come more prepared than previous years. 

Im already in preparation, can’t wait!

 

[georgegeorgia]

5 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

I don’t see why they won’t keep coming. 

It still holds far more appeal than retiring in the UK, granted you may need to come more prepared than previous years. 

Im already in preparation, can’t wait!

 

Age? And when do u plan to retire?

[kingofthemountain]

1 hour ago, georgegeorgia said:

Do you believe its true ? Is the next generation eg those in their 30’s and 40’s going to retire to Thailand?

Well we are talking about in the future 20\30 years

if the things go in the same way they have gone in the last 20 years

for example considering the exchange rates and the air pollution

it should be the Thais going to retire in the western countries

(With an less expensive cost of life and a much safer environment)

more than the other way

Edited January 23, 2020 by kingofthemountain

[AlexRich]

I think that it’s very possible that they will be. Notwithstanding the immigration rules you also have to factor in the increased cost of living and they terrible air pollution, I believe that era has passed. There will always be some westerners, but nowhere near the numbers of the past.

[darksidedog]

Tough one to call correctly I think.

Let's face it, retiring abroad anywhere is a relatively recent phenomena, though the trend is rising.

So too of course are the options as to where to go, given the benefits they offer and the obstacles they present.

Thailand has short changed itself on the former and outdone itself on the latter.

People will still retire here, though we may be spread a little more thinly on the ground.

Should Thailand not recognise the realities and remain the same or get worse, the lower numbers can be explained by simply saying "som nam na!"

[Jingthing]

I think Thailand is off the top 10 lists for retirement abroad permanently. But that doesn't mean nobody will come. 

[rwdrwdrwd]

I fit the demographic, however came here in my 20s.

 

The place ain't what it used to be. The negatives were palatable when it was really cheap, but on balance whilst it would probably be fine on half the sum I wouldn't want to be spending a couple of grand a month whilst putting up with garbage, soi dogs, increasingly onerous immigration rules, bad air quality, stupidly dangerous roads, volatile politics, etc etc when I could just move to plenty of other places where I can live for the same, with similar positives (climate) and many less negatives.

If I weren't married with kids here there's no chance I'd be here now - indeed we may well all move away in the next few years, the primary blocker being unsettling the kids at school and my wife's familiarity with Thailand. Placing myself in the shoes of a pending retiree with enough income to live nicely here these days, there are plenty of places I'd prefer to be on a similar budget - most of southern Europe for one.

Edited January 23, 2020 by rwdrwdrwd

[spidermike007]

If the government does not come up with some progressive and effective ways of dealing with the air quality, and traffic safety on the increasingly congested roads, not only will most ex-pats leave, but alot of Thais will join them. 

[mstevens]

5 hours ago, georgegeorgia said:

Is the next generation eg those in their 30’s and 40’s going to retire to Thailand?

 

I think the financial requirements to retire in Thailand are going to push it out of reach for many. Factor in all of the other issues expats are grumbling about - some of which I don't think will EVER improve - and it's hard to argue against that statement.

 

I'd expect the number of Westerners retiring in Thailand to dwindle as the years roll by. Some will still choose Thailand but many will head elsewhere, or stay in their homeland.

 

The low cost of living was one of the main reasons many chose Thailand. The cost of living in Thailand is up markedly, especially if you want your Western comforts. Why choose a place where you may pay similar to home for a lifestyle fraught with hassles, problems and let-downs?

Edited January 23, 2020 by mstevens

[mike787]

Absolutely...the word is out the next generation is learning from our mistakes and moving on, while we complete our damage control due to the changing times.  It's over...

[mike787]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

air quality

Take for example just the air quality in Chiang mai: for 4-6 month depending on the years burn, people's lives are being cut short as they inhale the carcinogenic air, and we are not even getting into all the other painfully damaging issues, cost, deadly roads, immigration, etc...

[Gecko123]

Climate change, water shortages, and environmental degradation are making Thailand a less and less attractive retirement and holiday destination. Climate change will likely hit the agricultural and tourism sectors the hardest, and disproportionately affect farm and unskilled labor the most, thus increasing income inequality and class frictions. I think globally the golden age of tourism has passed. Having billions of people endlessly traversing the globe is simply not environmentally sustainable, and when one considers the degree of cultural homogeneity and globalization, it's become increasingly pointless.

 

In this deteriorating environment, I doubt that Thailand will be able to unilaterally jack up its financial requirements for immigration. Thailand will remain an attractive retirement destination for those in the West desperate to stretch their retirement income, even if only incremental improvement is realized. But the sacrifice people pay in terms of reduced 'quality of life' will probably continue to increase, thus diminishing Thailand's relative attractiveness as a retirement (and holiday) destination.

 

Also, Thailand's aging population is making the dream of moving to Thailand and finding a relatively youthful life partner in your golden years more difficult to achieve. Let's face it, this was a main driver behind Thailand's expat retirement boom. I think that there is a growing awareness, accelerated by social media, that the paradigm of 'older-western-guy-meets-village-girl-and-lives-happily-ever-after' may not be all that it's cracked up to be. And if anybody finds any of this objectionable, surely they will at least concede that when the costs of supporting not just yourself, but a wife or girlfriend, dependent children, and even members of an extended family are factored in, the standard of living and lifestyle of a pensioner on a fixed income who is 'happily married to a Thai woman' may not be any higher, and in some cases may be lower, than had he stayed in the West.

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Gecko123

[Lacessit]

Western governments are acutely aware their pension systems are not sustainable long-term. Retreating from high-cost countries to a lower cost base will be more difficult.

Having said that, I think some males in the younger generations have worked out getting into a relationship with a Western female is financial suicide, and are saving for the time they can find a less expensive option.

[Roy Baht]

8 hours ago, georgegeorgia said:

“ This will be the last generation of retired expats coming to Thailand “

The extinction of the Western expat retiree has already begun and has been going on for more than 5 years. The key factor to observe (as in the extinction of any species) is replacement rate. Years ago, when a Western expat retiree passed away, he (and it was usually a he) was replaced by 1 - 3 new retirees. Now, he is simply not replaced. The cause of this decline has more to do with global geopolitics (especially the restrictions placed on the movement of both people & money implemented in the wake of the "9-11" terrorist attacks) and global economics (the rise of China in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007–08)--more to do with these factors than with specific measures taken by the Thai government.

[thaibeachlovers]

8 hours ago, darksidedog said:

Tough one to call correctly I think.

Let's face it, retiring abroad anywhere is a relatively recent phenomena, though the trend is rising.

So too of course are the options as to where to go, given the benefits they offer and the obstacles they present.

Thailand has short changed itself on the former and outdone itself on the latter.

People will still retire here, though we may be spread a little more thinly on the ground.

Should Thailand not recognise the realities and remain the same or get worse, the lower numbers can be explained by simply saying "som nam na!"

IMO most of those that are currently retired in LOS came first as younger people, as did I, but that was when we could come as many times as we liked, as I did. The new rules being implemented mean that less young people will visit enough times to learn to love the place, and frankly, the current version of Thailand is way less loveable than the one I visited often in the 90s.

If I were a younger person visiting LOS, I do not think I would love it as much as I did when I was visiting.

 

If the authorities do not realise the mistakes they are making, it could very well be the end of retirement in such numbers. Even Malaya provides a better retirement option, if one wanted to live there ( which I certainly would not ).

[geronimo]

It seems that expats are drawn to Thailand, despite government attempts to make it as unattractive as they can. You only have to look at some of the alternatives to see why the land of smiles is high on the list of places to retire. I predict a strong future regarding tourism, especially if they milk the marijuana cash cow .....

[impulse]

It could be...

 

Depends on how long it takes the Japanese to perfect those sex robots, and for the Chinese to knock them off and make them affordable. 

 

International travel could go completely into the crapper.

 

Edited January 24, 2020 by impulse

[pgrahmm]

The way it's shaping up, & selling out - in a few decades Thailand could become a giant Chinese retirement community as the floodgates open with Chinese that never had the option before......

 

They don't welcome or want western influences, cultural or economic in their domain/territories....

[impulse]

2 minutes ago, pgrahmm said:

The way it's shaping up, & selling out - in a few decades Thailand could become a giant Chinese retirement community as the floodgates open with Chinese that never had the option before......

 

They don't welcome or want western influences, cultural or economic in their domain/territories....

 

Or they may invent another 4 lines and draw up a 13 line map, taking in Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

 

[bkk6060]

Well, as long as it still is the best non 3rd world place for:

Sex

Plenty of bars and restaurants

Golf at reasonable prices

 

Then yes, they will still come.

The Chinese are a non entity for some of us who know how to avoid their popular spots.

I will see them at the mall and that is about it.

 

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, Gecko123 said:

Climate change, water shortages, and environmental degradation are making Thailand a less and less attractive retirement and holiday destination. Climate change will likely hit the agricultural and tourism sectors the hardest, and disproportionately affect farm and unskilled labor the most, thus increasing income inequality and class frictions. I think globally the golden age of tourism has passed. Having billions of people endlessly traversing the globe is simply not environmentally sustainable, and when one considers the degree of cultural homogeneity and globalization, it's become increasingly pointless.

 

In this deteriorating environment, I doubt that Thailand will be able to unilaterally jack up its financial requirements for immigration. Thailand will remain an attractive retirement destination for those in the West desperate to stretch their retirement income, even if only incremental improvement is realized. But the sacrifice people pay in terms of reduced 'quality of life' will probably continue to increase, thus diminishing Thailand's relative attractiveness as a retirement (and holiday) destination.

 

Also, Thailand's aging population is making the dream of moving to Thailand and finding a relatively youthful life partner in your golden years more difficult to achieve. Let's face it, this was a main driver behind Thailand's expat retirement boom. I think that there is a growing awareness, accelerated by social media, that the paradigm of 'older-western-guy-meets-village-girl-and-lives-happily-ever-after' may not be all that it's cracked up to be. And if anybody finds any of this objectionable, surely they will at least concede that when the costs of supporting not just yourself, but a wife or girlfriend, dependent children, and even members of an extended family are factored in, the standard of living and lifestyle of a pensioner on a fixed income who is 'happily married to a Thai woman' may not be any higher, and in some cases may be lower, than had he stayed in the West.

 

Good points. Frankly, only though massive class friction, is change possible here. The powers do not want to pay a fair wage, nor are they benefitting the common man, who is struggling. Sustenance crops are barely providing a living anymore with rising costs of living. Change is coming. And it is needed. Less water. Poorer air. More congestion. And no attempt at solutions.

 

The generals should be preparing an exit strategy. They are despised as never before. And for very good reasons. They are utterly useless to the people. 

Edited January 24, 2020 by spidermike007

[lazygourmet]

People must be really insane to plan any decent retirement here.

+25 years of a bit of work and a lot of plays all around South East Asia.

A few more years to go and I am off to South of France.

[Kinnock]

Brexit may make retiring to Southern Europe less attractive for UK citizens.  Florida and Dubai are expensive, Africa is generally unsafe, so if you want winter warmth the choices are limited.

 

And the elderly population is growing. 

Edited January 24, 2020 by Kinnock

[georgegeorgia]

Luv to get some opinions from guys contemplating retirement, is there any guys here who are between say 45 and 60 still living in Farangland who have either changed their mind or still thinking of retiring to Thailand in the future?

 

I remember reading another forum, a “Adult” Pattaya based one around 12-15years ago where all the posters were desperate to retire to Thailand eg Pattaya, would love to know how many of those have since changed their mind ,Some were going to all lengths to get early retirement ,selling their houses to fund it , buying a bar etc etc just to live in the “paradise” as they called it.

 

of course lets fast forward  15 years and many of those guys probably would have changed their minds.

 

I havent read that particular Pattaya Adult based forum for years, couldn’t imagine they would have the following like they used to

Edited January 24, 2020 by georgegeorgia

[scorecard]

14 hours ago, Kadilo said:

I don’t see why they won’t keep coming. 

It still holds far more appeal than retiring in the UK, granted you may need to come more prepared than previous years. 

Im already in preparation, can’t wait!

 

Are more folks thinking more seriously whether they can afford to retire in Thailand with a half decent life style?

 

In my 3 decades + working here I've met plenty of foreigners who came her as a tourist, believed they had discovered utopia and quickly sold everything and moved here with a bank balance which was nowhere near sufficient.

 

 

[unamazedloso]

Nope! im 42 been here since i was 20 and no way in hell will i retire here. Wasted most of my life here and im planning how to be out of here within the next few years. Used to be ok here but society and the country seems to be going backwards. No place for my children to live out their lives like i did. Sorry Thailand, you took everything without even an apology so we are out! Even my wife never wants to step foot in her home country again. A dirty miserable 2faced place is all it is now.

[No1]

12 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

If the government does not come up with some progressive and effective ways of dealing with the air quality, and traffic safety on the increasingly congested roads, not only will most ex-pats leave, but alot of Thais will join them. 

Air quality? Only an issue during 3 months of the year when expats can conveniently visit their families back in their home countries. Traffic safety? Ride a car or fly a plane and chances that you will be involved in an ugly accident are very, very low. Congested roads? Only an issue for people who need to get to work.

Give me a break; the weather here is awesome, food is great, the nature is still worth exploring, people are friendly and the visa situation for retired people is so much better and easier than in Europe or the US for Asians.
 

1 hour ago, lazygourmet said:

People must be really insane to plan any decent retirement here.

+25 years of a bit of work and a lot of plays all around South East Asia.

A few more years to go and I am off to South of France.

Difficult to understand.... what do you mean with "+25 years of a bit of work"? And what do you want to say with "plays all around South East Asia"?

Go to the South of France, freeze your ass off in the winter, get annoyed by Maghrebis in the city centres, deal with expensive health care and people protesting against nearly everything. Needless to say, if you are not a EU-citizen, have fun trying to get a visa to stay there for longer than 3 months

[new2here]

What I think is the “wild card” is not so much what will it will not happen in Thailand - be that rules/visas, currency swings etc, is what will the regional competition look like?

 

i mean I think it IS possible to some degree; that places like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and even Vietnam will change/improve their processes, infrastructure (ie health care, domestic transportation) and governmental rule/law that would make it a higher value proposition than say what Thailand is today or might/may be in 10 or even 20 years time.