Thailand’s prime minister asked to reconsider another national lockdown

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Yes I have followed up and see that the it may not be valid. 

However this is from Reuters on a Danish Study.  Again, I am not saying that wearing masks is not prudent, that social distance is not a good practice, or that constantly bathing ones hands in anti-bacterial gel does not do 'SOME GOOD"  However, with that said, neither lockdowns, quarantines, masks, gels, contact tracing or vaccines are going to be the magic bullet that stops this disease.  You could stop HIV if people did not practice unsafe sex, but that is not likely to happen and you could equally stop Covid if you separated people for 14 days but that is not going to happen either.   Covid like the flu and the common cold is a virus, it mutates and it has entered the world population.  The idea that somehow we can do an ostrich, put our heads in the sand while on lockdown and it will just go away is wishful thinking. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facemasks/danish-study-finds-face-masks-provide-limited-protection-to-wearer-idUSKBN27Y1YW

It depends on the type of face mask and whether it fits snugly over nose and around the face. N95 can definitely work. Various types of mask have been tested through simulations using aerosols that were tagged to show on high-speed cameras. The single-layer cloth mask is pretty useless.

[anchadian]

 

Thai News Reports

 

@ThaiNewsReports

·

1m

 

 

IMPORTANT: The Governor of Rayong has just ordered closed all hotels, resorts, restaurants and bars on Koh Samet island for a period of 14 days from 27 April to 10 May #COVID19 #โควิด19 #โควิดวันนี้ #Thailand

 

[placnx]

6 hours ago, VBF said:

My personal take on the GBD, which I supported when it first appeared:

It appeared to make sense, then, however it would seem that we now know that Covid is spread by mainly asymptomatic people, therefore negating much of what the GBD says.

 

As I say, just my take - I was initially a total lockdown sceptic, but with the benefit of hindsight, now I'm not so sure.

With something as fast-moving as this pandemic has been and continues to be, I believe that we should be flexible and base our opinions on current evidence as it emerges.

 

UPDATE - Just noticed that @Jeffr2pointed out (several pages back!) that the authors of the GBD are themselves backing off

What is astonishing is that the Great Barrington triad is still pushing their misinformation.  Regarding Jeff2's post you cite, actually, Bhattacharya has not backed off. The article title was a misnomer. Bhattacharya is complaining that YouTube took down the GBD triad 2-hour session in March with Florida governor DeSantis: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/04/09/desantis-youtube-coronavirus/

The notorious Scott Atlas also attended.

[placnx]

5 hours ago, VBF said:

In UK you get a card showing not only the type of vaccine but the actual batch number.

I cannot imagine the US is that different....is it?

Commonly in the US there is a vaccination card from CDC, but it's up to the jurisdiction whether they use it or make something up! CDC apparently maintains a vaccination database for everyone born in the US with lot/batch, but access is limited. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/reporting/

[Jeffr2]

4 hours ago, Thomas J said:

Yes but again, you along with others seem to miss the point.  Masks have some benefit, social distancing some benefit, quarantines, some benefit, constantly washing hands, some benefit and I believe vaccines will be some benefit.  However to think that any or all of those in combination will be effective against Covid flies in the face of the world's experience with other diseases and viruses.  

There is no vaccine that is 100% effective, no program that will get 100% of the people vaccinated, and no way of preventing the likelihood that the virus will mutate just like the common cold and the flu does and the entire process of infection will start again. 

The world has to "learn a way" to co-exist with the virus and stop pretending it can conquer that.  The history of mankind stopping most diseases and viruses in particular does not give precedent to that.  If the world can't stop diseases for which there are effective vaccines and treatments what could possibly give rise to the notion that they can someone hide in seclusion until this virus dies out. 

The better jabs have been proven to be 100% effective at keeping you from dying or in the ICU with a tube jammed down your throat.

[bobbin]

4 hours ago, KannikaP said:

You don't need to 'DO FACEBOOK' to watch the video.

yes, a couple of people have said that..

 

My only defense is that I've tried in the past to access Facebook content only to be stymied by the log-in page, so I never even tried to access the video..

[kwilco]

12 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I did not say Malaria is a virus.  I am pointing out that various diseases have had vaccines and cures for decades and yet still are very common.  The idea that somehow that efforts to coral in Covid will be more effective is just plain foolish.  If you can't stop the flu, can't stop a cold, cant stop TB, can't stop malaria, what would possibly make you of the opinion that you can stop Covid. 

 

You really don't understand it, do you? I'm pointing out that different diseases are differently treatable by creating vaccines or other cures - you seem to think it's a level playing field and are essentially comparing oranges and apples.

You also don't seem to understand what people are trying to do regards Covid - no-one is saying we can "stop" it - they are trying to manage it.

Some vaccines have eliminated or all but eliminated some diseases (e.g. smallpox, and measles maps rubella, )

As I said Covid 19 is a corona virus that is already reached and understood and so a lot of the processes of developing a vaccine are already established.

Edited April 26, 2021 by kwilco

[metisdead]

A post containing an chart that was copy and pasted from some without a link to the source of the chart has been removed as well as the replies. 

[Danderman123]

16 hours ago, Thomas J said:

I did not say Malaria is a virus.  I am pointing out that various diseases have had vaccines and cures for decades and yet still are very common.  The idea that somehow that efforts to coral in Covid will be more effective is just plain foolish.  If you can't stop the flu, can't stop a cold, cant stop TB, can't stop malaria, what would possibly make you of the opinion that you can stop Covid. 

 

Or Polio. Or Smallpox. 

[metisdead]

Posts with links to unapproved social media sites have been removed:

 

18) Social Media content is acceptable in most social forums. However, in factual areas such as news, current affairs and health topics, it cannot be used unless it is from a credible news media source or government agency, and must include a weblink to the original source.

 

 

[brewsterbudgen]

11 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

What if your actions made your son exposed to Covid-19? 

 

I'm not a medic, but I worry more about the educational and psychological consequences of keeping him locked down for a long time.  Kids under 10 don't seem to be much at risk from Covid.  There are lots of other things to worry about!

[Jeffr2]

3 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

I'm not a medic, but I worry more about the educational and psychological consequences of keeping him locked down for a long time.  Kids under 10 don't seem to be much at risk from Covid.  There are lots of other things to worry about!

No easy answers, but seems these mutations are now going after the young.  And they in turn pass it along to others in their house.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/brazil-alarming-high-number-babies-children-are-dying-covid-19-n1264231

In Brazil, an alarmingly high number of babies and children are dying of Covid-19

While government data from Brazil suggest that over 800 children under age 9 have died of Covid-19, an expert estimates that the death toll is nearly three times higher.

[Danderman123]

6 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

I'm not a medic, but I worry more about the educational and psychological consequences of keeping him locked down for a long time.  Kids under 10 don't seem to be much at risk from Covid.  There are lots of other things to worry about!

Minnesota reports third COVID-19 death of a child

 

The new variants don't care so much about age of their victims.

[brewsterbudgen]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Minnesota reports third COVID-19 death of a child

 

The new variants don't care so much about age of their victims.

 

Indeed, it's all about risk.  I drive quite a bit, and worry a lot about accidents here in Thailand.  Also, the PM2.5 pollution can be horrendous and I worry about the longterm risk to both my own and my kid's health.  Life has risks but has to continue. A complete lockdown would be a risk too.

Edited April 27, 2021 by brewsterbudgen

[Tech65]

15 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You are confused. You seem to think that asymptomatic cases are simply barely infected people. And that they are perfectly healthy. The reality is that a large percent of asymptomatics incur permanent lung scarring.

 

And, you are confusing asymptomatics with pre-symptomatic.

 

BTW, PCR tests are very reliable, the number of false positives is very low.

 

"not causing, marked by, or presenting with signs or symptoms of infection, illness, or disease"

 

This is the definition.

 

The asymtomatics can have PCR positive.

Proven by millions of cases.

 

That is what I am trying to say. 

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Tech65

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, Tech65 said:

"not causing, marked by, or presenting with signs or symptoms of infection, illness, or disease"

This is the definition.

The asyntomatics can have PCR positive.

 

By definition, asymptomatics are Covid positive.

 

However, appearances can be deceiving, asymptomatics may have unseen symptoms, and can infect others.

[Thomas J]

20 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Come on man.  The virus was new.  In the beginning, they weren't sure if it was airborne or not.  As they studied the virus, and began to understand it better, the advice changed.

Yes you are right.  It is new.  That is why the 'FOLLOW THE ADVISE OF EXPERTS' is sketchy.  They are guessing.  Asked to come up with advise they are pressed to reply with "something" even without any factual basis.  When "experts" keep changing their opinions and recommendations as time goes on, it shows you the fallacy of believing what they say is rooted in fact rather than opinion. 

As previously stated, if the government really wanted a "best practices" it would employ different practices in different regions of the same country.  If there was a noticeable improvement based on what was done in one region that that should be employed in the other.  Right now it is the "kitchen sink" approach.  Masks, quarantines, closing businesses, hand sanitizers, lock downs, alcohol bans, restricted hours.  You have no idea which of these is merely window dressing that has no effect whatsoever.  The restricted hours is one that common sense tells you that you are pushing all the people to go during fewer hours which is exactly the opposite of what you want to do.  If the experts had the solution(s) the world would not be having the pandemic it currently has and the solutions the "experts" have advised would be effective.  All of which leads me back to my belief that they would be better served trying to come up with ways TO LIVE WITH and function with the virus present, recognizing just like the flu, and the common cold, it is there and you are not going eradicate it. 

 

[Jeffr2]

12 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Yes you are right.  It is new.  That is why the 'FOLLOW THE ADVISE OF EXPERTS' is sketchy.  They are guessing.  Asked to come up with advise they are pressed to reply with "something" even without any factual basis.  When "experts" keep changing their opinions and recommendations as time goes on, it shows you the fallacy of believing what they say is rooted in fact rather than opinion. 

As previously stated, if the government really wanted a "best practices" it would employ different practices in different regions of the same country.  If there was a noticeable improvement based on what was done in one region that that should be employed in the other.  Right now it is the "kitchen sink" approach.  Masks, quarantines, closing businesses, hand sanitizers, lock downs, alcohol bans, restricted hours.  You have no idea which of these is merely window dressing that has no effect whatsoever.  The restricted hours is one that common sense tells you that you are pushing all the people to go during fewer hours which is exactly the opposite of what you want to do.  If the experts had the solution(s) the world would not be having the pandemic it currently has and the solutions the "experts" have advised would be effective.  All of which leads me back to my belief that they would be better served trying to come up with ways TO LIVE WITH and function with the virus present, recognizing just like the flu, and the common cold, it is there and you are not going eradicate it. 

 

Follow the advise of experts is sketchy?  Scientists don't guess.  It's better to follow them than some dodgy stuff you find on social media or conspiracy theory websites.  In the end Faucci was right.  100%.  And many others were 100% wrong.

[Thomas J]

8 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Follow the advise of experts is sketchy?  Scientists don't guess.  It's better to follow them than some dodgy stuff you find on social media or conspiracy theory websites.  In the end Faucci was right.  100%.  And many others were 100% wrong.

Jeffr,

 

No I don't believe it is a conspiracy.  But I also don't believe a bat flew several hundred kilometers from the closest horseshoe bat cave to Wuhan to bite an animal that infected people.  Most likely a lab accident at the Wuhan lab that was studying bat viruses. 

In terms of Fauci and the other "experts" I show you this direct quote from Fauci.  HE WAS OBVIOUSLY WRONG AND GUESSING. 



You have some experts touting hydroxychloroquine and others saying it does nothing.  And to beat a dead horse, you have Sweden who did nothing and has a Covid infection rate not materially different than France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands  So were the experts in the latter countries giving such great advise that it had almost no effect?  Do I think it is a bad idea to wear masks, use sanitizer, social distance etc. no they are probably prudent and certainly can do no harm.  However, as previously stated, the world has had decades to ward off numerous other diseases and has had experts with decades of true experience fighting them.  It has not been successful in preventing their spread.  Perhaps the draconian measures make some feel safer but there is no question they are killing people in other ways as the economy craters and based on the results of the past 18 months the world has made little progress in containing this one.  If anything the draconian measures have turned this pandemic into hysteria as you look at the news media and 8 of the 10 headlines each and every day provide scary headlines.  The fact remains, you are more likely to die driving on a street in Thailand than you are dying from Covid.  That is not to ignore it, but don't be consumed by it.  If you look at cruise ships, nowhere is there a more controlled environment.  I have been on numerous cruises.  You are constantly given hand sanitizer as you exit the ship, re-enter the ship, and walk throughout the ship.  You are coming into contact with only about 2,000 - 4000 people each day yet they have had numerous outbreaks onboard.  If you can't control coronavirus, and other viral outbreaks in a very confined cruise ship, what would possibly give anyone the notion they can control it within a country let alone globally. 


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lag-time-covid-19-cases-past-infections-2020-4

[Jeffr2]

4 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Jeffr,

 

No I don't believe it is a conspiracy.  But I also don't believe a bat flew several hundred kilometers from the closest horseshoe bat cave to Wuhan to bite an animal that infected people.  Most likely a lab accident at the Wuhan lab that was studying bat viruses. 

In terms of Fauci and the other "experts" I show you this direct quote from Fauci.  HE WAS OBVIOUSLY WRONG AND GUESSING. 



You have some experts touting hydroxychloroquine and others saying it does nothing.  And to beat a dead horse, you have Sweden who did nothing and has a Covid infection rate not materially different than France, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands  So were the experts in the latter countries giving such great advise that it had almost no effect?  Do I think it is a bad idea to wear masks, use sanitizer, social distance etc. no they are probably prudent and certainly can do no harm.  However, as previously stated, the world has had decades to ward off numerous other diseases and has had experts with decades of true experience fighting them.  It has not been successful in preventing their spread.  Perhaps the draconian measures make some feel safer but there is no question they are killing people in other ways as the economy craters and based on the results of the past 18 months the world has made little progress in containing this one.  If anything the draconian measures have turned this pandemic into hysteria as you look at the news media and 8 of the 10 headlines each and every day provide scary headlines.  The fact remains, you are more likely to die driving on a street in Thailand than you are dying from Covid.  That is not to ignore it, but don't be consumed by it.  If you look at cruise ships, nowhere is there a more controlled environment.  I have been on numerous cruises.  You are constantly given hand sanitizer as you exit the ship, re-enter the ship, and walk throughout the ship.  You are coming into contact with only about 2,000 - 4000 people each day yet they have had numerous outbreaks onboard.  If you can't control coronavirus, and other viral outbreaks in a very confined cruise ship, what would possibly give anyone the notion they can control it within a country let alone globally. 


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-lag-time-covid-19-cases-past-infections-2020-4

You've lost the plot pal.  I give up.

[brewsterbudgen]

1 minute ago, Jeffr2 said:

You've lost the plot pal.  I give up.

That's a bit of a cop-out!  You can't deny he makes some interesting points, especially this one:

 

Perhaps the draconian measures make some feel safer but there is no question they are killing people in other ways as the economy craters and based on the results of the past 18 months the world has made little progress in containing this one.  If anything the draconian measures have turned this pandemic into hysteria as you look at the news media and 8 of the 10 headlines each and every day provide scary headlines.  The fact remains, you are more likely to die driving on a street in Thailand than you are dying from Covid. 

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

That's a bit of a cop-out!  You can't deny he makes some interesting points, especially this one:

 

Perhaps the draconian measures make some feel safer but there is no question they are killing people in other ways as the economy craters and based on the results of the past 18 months the world has made little progress in containing this one.  If anything the draconian measures have turned this pandemic into hysteria as you look at the news media and 8 of the 10 headlines each and every day provide scary headlines.  The fact remains, you are more likely to die driving on a street in Thailand than you are dying from Covid. 

Spoken like a true covid denier.  You'll never change their mind with facts.  They won't listen.

[animatic]

On 4/26/2021 at 11:52 AM, Khunangkaro said:

Asymptomatics (False Positives) don't spread a virus. 

 

Asymptomatic doesn’t mean false positives.  That is 100% wrong.

 

Plus, Pre-symptomatics can be spreading it before they get knowingly sick, and can infect others, while not realising they will soon be sick.
 

It means a positive cases that shows no recognised strong symptoms.

 

So a ‘false negative’ with minimal or unrecognised symptoms, or no symptoms.

Edited April 27, 2021 by animatic

[Thomas J]

41 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

You've lost the plot pal.  I give up.

If you wish to think that living inside ones home, wearing a mask, having stores closed indefinitely, closing the borders, constantly bathing in disinfectant, and having curfews will protect you from catching the virus and will eventually remove it from the face of the earth, ok.  But I look at what is happening around the world and despite ' FOLLOWING THE EXPERTS" The virus is now in its third wave.  

Perhaps, those steps might temporarily slow down the rate of infection though Sweden's numbers as mentioned are not much different than the rest of Europe.  The point still is, the virus is here.  There are 120,000 cases of TB in Thailand each year, there are 72,000 cases of dengue fever each year, there are 150,000 cases of malaria in Thailand each year.  If people did not pull their  heads in like a turtle before covid out of fear of contracting one of those diseases I think it is paranoia to now due it when the total death count is 158 in almost 18 months and 99.5% of those contracting Covid recover.  If you believe that you wish to live your life inside a cave out of fear of the disease so be it.  But as has been said, it is foolish that to be so afraid of dying that you sacrifice living. 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

[Excel]

Just now, Thomas J said:

If you wish to think that living inside ones home, wearing a mask, having stores closed indefinitely, closing the borders, constantly bathing in disinfectant, and having curfews will protect you from catching the virus and will eventually remove it from the face of the earth, ok.  But I look at what is happening around the world and despite ' FOLLOWING THE EXPERTS" The virus is now in its third wave.  

Perhaps, those steps might temporarily slow down the rate of infection though Sweden's numbers as mentioned are not much different than the rest of Europe.  The point still is, the virus is here.  There are 120,000 cases of TB in Thailand each year, there are 72,000 cases of dengue fever each year, there are 150,000 cases of malaria in Thailand each year.  If people did not pull their  heads in like a turtle before covid out of fear of contracting one of those diseases I think it is paranoia to now due it when the total death count is 158 in almost 18 months and 99.5% of those contracting Covid recover.  If you believe that you wish to live your life inside a cave out of fear of the disease so be it.  But as has been said, it is foolish that to be so afraid of dying that you sacrifice living. 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

Part of your text was "If you believe that you wish to live your life inside a cave out of fear of the disease so be it"

 

Actually after reading your post if anyone should live in a cave it is you thus protecting the rest of civilisation from your irresponsible behaviour.

[Jeffr2]

16 minutes ago, Excel said:

Part of your text was "If you believe that you wish to live your life inside a cave out of fear of the disease so be it"

 

Actually after reading your post if anyone should live in a cave it is you thus protecting the rest of civilisation from your irresponsible behaviour.

Actually, I think it'd be very interesting to live in a cave! LOL

 

Hard to have intelligent conversations with people like this.

[Thomas J]

8 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Hard to have intelligent conversations with people like this.

Yes back at you.  As said, you believe the virus can be eradicated, why don't you start with the flu first.  After all they have only had centuries to study it, develop vaccines for that and now they have so limited it, that on average only 9% of the worlds population gets it.  But I know you believe "trust me, this time would be different" 

 

[Jeffr2]

8 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

Yes back at you.  As said, you believe the virus can be eradicated, why don't you start with the flu first.  After all they have only had centuries to study it, develop vaccines for that and now they have so limited it, that on average only 9% of the worlds population gets it.  But I know you believe "trust me, this time would be different" 

 

Don't misquote me.  Again.  I never said the virus can be eradicated.  Quite the opposite.  I've said many times this virus will be around us for the rest of my life.

 

What's wrong with you?

[Thomas J]

3 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Don't misquote me.  Again.  I never said the virus can be eradicated.  Quite the opposite.  I've said many times this virus will be around us for the rest of my life.

 

What's wrong with you?

Don't misquote me either.  I said "if you think"  based on your comments that is exactly what you are suggesting.  I on the other hand said, maybe the measures can slow the progression temporarily.  However, unless one was willing to live that way indefinitely as soon as those draconian measures were removed that the virus would continue. 

[candide]

51 minutes ago, Thomas J said:

If you wish to think that living inside ones home, wearing a mask, having stores closed indefinitely, closing the borders, constantly bathing in disinfectant, and having curfews will protect you from catching the virus and will eventually remove it from the face of the earth, ok.  But I look at what is happening around the world and despite ' FOLLOWING THE EXPERTS" The virus is now in its third wave.  

Perhaps, those steps might temporarily slow down the rate of infection though Sweden's numbers as mentioned are not much different than the rest of Europe.  The point still is, the virus is here.  There are 120,000 cases of TB in Thailand each year, there are 72,000 cases of dengue fever each year, there are 150,000 cases of malaria in Thailand each year.  If people did not pull their  heads in like a turtle before covid out of fear of contracting one of those diseases I think it is paranoia to now due it when the total death count is 158 in almost 18 months and 99.5% of those contracting Covid recover.  If you believe that you wish to live your life inside a cave out of fear of the disease so be it.  But as has been said, it is foolish that to be so afraid of dying that you sacrifice living. 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/thailand/

Same flaws in your argumentation as in the numerous posts you 'he been writing for months.

(1) the objective of lockdown is to stop an outbreak/wave, not to stop a global pandemy, I.e. it doesn't prevent a next wave to occur. The big advantage is to keep matching the health system capacity. The other is that, as long as people are not dead, they are more likely to survive, in particular now that vaccines are being produced and will be available at some time.

(2) the other diseases you cite are not comparable, as usual. In particular they are not infectious in the same way.

(3) the current covid-19 figures which you find low, are at this level because of the (more or less efficient) policies applied.

(4) you always give Sweden as an example, but fail to mention that the infection rate in Sweden is higher than in comparable countries in terms of density, climate, way of life etc... (It's neighbour countries).

 

These flaws have been mentioned to you multiple times. But don't let facts get in the way.....