Gloom and Doom, revisited.

[bojo]

22 hours ago, kinyara said:

The Chinese of course were already buying residential property in Pattaya pre-Covid, they were the biggest single market in the condo sector. Seems strange you think residential property that was previously so attractive to them would be the only asset they choose to ignore in your bullish 12 month reassessment. Their motives for investment pre and post covid are neither here nor there, the point is they were doing it pre and are just as likely to do it post,

I'd say that your assumptions post covid are correct. I have a close pal who works for a large real estate company in Patts and most of his clients/agents he deals with are Chinese, or at least have been the last few years pre covid. They are still getting loads of enquiries regarding the condo projects they have on their books and customers in China are just waiting for proper freedom of travel and so forth............................................................Western expats will continue to be diluted by the Chinese, nothing changing there.............................................

[jacko45k]

18 minutes ago, bojo said:

Western expats will continue to be diluted by the Chinese, nothing changing there.............................................

Sadly, I agree. 

[Henryford]

2 hours ago, bojo said:

Western expats will continue to be diluted by the Chinese, nothing changing there.............................................

Only the Chinese would pay the crazy prices for some of the new massive condo developments eg Copacabana in Jomtien 140,000 baht sq m

[kinyara]

18 minutes ago, Henryford said:

Only the Chinese would pay the crazy prices for some of the new massive condo developments eg Copacabana in Jomtien 140,000 baht sq m

Wow, I'm out of touch with what new developments are priced at these days so that's an eye opener. I seem to remember when wider scale condo development started Northshore on Pattaya Beach Road upped the anti price wise by hitting I think 100,000 baht sq m. Of course back then the exchange rate was way more favourable to Western markets for bringing cash in, so I agree with your point.  Would be interesting to know the final nationality breakdown of buyers in Riviera which was a recently completed upmarket one nearby. 

[kinyara]

16 hours ago, Leaver said:

Allow me to clarify. 

 

In my opinion, the borders will be open in the next 12 months.  For Pattaya to get back to pre covid tourism, and that includes many of the vacant premises here having tenants again, in my opinion, it will be 5 years or more after the borders open, so that's from the end of covid in Thailand, not from March 2020.

 

I can not be clearer than this, and there certainly has been no "u-turn" from me.  

 

 

The point I was trying to make is, if the Chinese buy up, big time, distressed commercial leases / property, then large parts of Pattaya MAY become like Sihanoukville.  

 

I don't care if some Chinese buy condo's in my block.  I care if I can't find a bar / restaurant catering to westerners, because Pattaya has become Chinatown.  If that happens, Pattaya may as well be Sihanoukville, minus the casinos.   That said, could you imagine if you bought a condo at The Base, only to find it's become an AirBnb hotel for Chinese?  

 

Can you see how if the Chinese take over the majority of commercial premises here, it will effect property prices?  I have given the example of the disappearing Sunday roast before.  

 

Perhaps expats will all be socializing on the dark side if this happens.  

 

This buy up, or "widescale investment" could happen soon after borders have opened.  Perhaps this is where there is the misunderstanding.  The Chinese businessmen may be among the first to Pattaya in order to buy cheap hotels, guest houses, bars, restaurants, nightclubs, boats, buses etc.  

 

 

 

From speaking to friends in Vietnam, two of whom are ex Thailand expats, the Vietnamese government cleared the country of people continuing to reside in Vietnam on covid extensions.  Thailand did the same. 

 

They couldn't differentiate between covid extenders moving to other visas through agents, and people who were already on visas from agents, so they cleared the lot of them. 

 

I am quite sure, post covid, things will return as they were.  In any case, I have a visa plan for Vietnam.   I am confident I can reside there, legally, should I wish to do so in the future, and under the current visa laws.  

 

 

In short I think we have a different outlook on the speed, scale and extent of the inevitable growth of Chinese investment and tourism to Pattaya. I don't think anyone disagrees they are and will be the main players going forward,  but I think Pattaya's strength and attraction has always been it's appeal to people from all over the globe and I don't see that changing one iota.  I can't think of many places that are as multinational for a relatively small city and the fact many thousands have set up a permanent base here over the last 2 decades served by well established businesses meeting their needs makes it different to more transient tourist cities. Key difference in my view.

 

I think you'll be okay for your Roast Beef and Yorkshire pudding for years to come, if I'm wrong I can recommend the Hot and Sour Soup followed by the Kung Pao Chicken.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[newnative]

49 minutes ago, kinyara said:

Wow, I'm out of touch with what new developments are priced at these days so that's an eye opener. I seem to remember when wider scale condo development started Northshore on Pattaya Beach Road upped the anti price wise by hitting I think 100,000 baht sq m. Of course back then the exchange rate was way more favourable to Western markets for bringing cash in, so I agree with your point.  Would be interesting to know the final nationality breakdown of buyers in Riviera which was a recently completed upmarket one nearby. 

     I would not pay 140,000 a sqm for any condo in Pattaya--or Bangkok, for that matter.  Very nice condos in good projects are available in both cities for much less than 140,000 baht a sqm.  You certainly can pay 140,000 baht if you wish--and much more than that--but you don't need to.

     A couple years ago the Edge project in central Pattaya was in pre-sale.  I think the price per sqm averaged around 180,000 baht.  Some thought that was a good deal but I couldn't see it.  You try to buy low with pre-sales and make a profit when the price goes up when the project is done.  My thinking was that at 180,000 baht there was nowhere to go but down.  

    Did a check on Hipflat and sure enough, there are units listed for 200,000 baht and more a sqm.  One is at 221,000.   For small condos of around 27 to 30sqm, most with no balconies.  The pre-buyers at 180,000 a sqm are now trying to sell at 200,000 baht a sqm and make a profit.  Good luck with that.  Two fairly new and not very different projects in the same location, The Base and Grand Avenue, are at 109,000 and 71,000 baht a sqm.  

[kinyara]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

     I would not pay 140,000 a sqm for any condo in Pattaya--or Bangkok, for that matter.  Very nice condos in good projects are available in both cities for much less than 140,000 baht a sqm.  You certainly can pay 140,000 baht if you wish--and much more than that--but you don't need to.

     A couple years ago the Edge project in central Pattaya was in pre-sale.  I think the price per sqm averaged around 180,000 baht.  Some thought that was a good deal but I couldn't see it.  You try to buy low with pre-sales and make a profit when the price goes up when the project is done.  My thinking was that at 180,000 baht there was nowhere to go but down.  

    Did a check on Hipflat and sure enough, there are units listed for 200,000 baht and more a sqm.  One is at 221,000.   For small condos of around 27 to 30sqm, most with no balconies.  The pre-buyers at 180,000 a sqm are now trying to sell at 200,000 baht a sqm and make a profit.  Good luck with that.  Two fairly new and not very different projects in the same location, The Base and Grand Avenue, are at 109,000 and 71,000 baht a sqm.  

Totally agree with you, those seem crazy prices to my mind but I guess there must be some people with money to burn who think it's a good deal, rather them than me.    I watched a YouTube this year of a guy going round some of the newer developments looking to rent not buy, it was a pretty good watch seeing the inside of these condos. The one thing they all had in common were tiny size with not much in the way of communal areas for the number of units in the block/tower. The rental prices being asked still seemed high to me for the size of the living space. 

[Leaver]

6 hours ago, kinyara said:

In short I think we have a different outlook on the speed, scale and extent of the inevitable growth of Chinese investment and tourism to Pattaya.

 

I had an outlook 18 months ago, now, all bets are off.  Anything is possible.

 

Chinese tour operators were beating Thai businesses down to rock bottom price 18 months ago.  Now, they may as well buy them and cut out the middle man.  

 

6 hours ago, kinyara said:

I don't think anyone disagrees they are and will be the main players going forward,  but I think Pattaya's strength and attraction has always been it's appeal to people from all over the globe and I don't see that changing one iota. 

 

I agree.  The Chinese are / were here, and are here to stay.  However, if they become such a dominant player in the market, they could force other nationalities out of a particular area, and some years down the track, may possibly make Pattaya an undesirable place to retire to.  

 

6 hours ago, kinyara said:

 I can't think of many places that are as multinational for a relatively small city and the fact many thousands have set up a permanent base here over the last 2 decades served by well established businesses meeting their needs makes it different to more transient tourist cities. Key difference in my view.

 

It's one of the things I love about Pattaya.  The multiculturalism, particularly in relation to restaurants.

 

How many of the "well established businesses" are left standing now?  

 

8 years of the last 2 decades is pre GFC, when times were good.  Do you think expats will be retiring here in the next 10 years, post covid, at the rate they were over the last 20 years?  

 

6 hours ago, kinyara said:

I think you'll be okay for your Roast Beef and Yorkshire pudding for years to come, if I'm wrong I can recommend the Hot and Sour Soup followed by the Kung Pao Chicken.

 

I also think I'll be okay for a while for Sunday roast, but as we all know, everyone should have a Plan B.  

[Leaver]

21 hours ago, kwilco said:

Depends what that actually means.

If you think unrestricted access to Thailand for everyone...I doubt it.

Vaccine passports or grading of countries will apply.... covid will still be about in the world.... and lord knows what variants will have popped up by then. There's already stats of vacs losing there efficacy. 

So one factor is what will the outside world be like. 

The other factor will be Thailand....what product will they have on offer? Will it be attractive enough to bring back tourist money  on the sane levels as before?

 

I'm guessing no...not straight away or even ever.

 

Thailand will eventually vaccinate to around 60% to 70% and open up.  It could take another year.  There may well be "sandboxes" dotted all over Thailand to try to start up earlier, perhaps at the expense of Thai citizens who have yet to be vaccinated, but Money Number One here.

 

I agree with the new variant concerns.  The world should hope the virus doesn't mutate into something the current vaccines are useless against, because if it does, the world goes back to March 2020. 

 

The tourists, and their money, will be back.  However, I agree, the Pattaya that was on offer pre covid will not be the Pattaya that is on offer post covid.  It will take years to get back to pre covid Pattaya, and even then, it may have changed so much it's nothing like the pre covid Pattaya we all knew.   

[kwilco]

7 hours ago, Leaver said:

There may well be "sandboxes" dotted all over Thailand to try to start up earlier, perhaps at the expense of Thai citizens who have yet to be vaccinated, but Money Number One here

Sandboxes so far have been a dismal failure. They demonstrate that visitors dont want to jump through all those hoops just to be confined to a limited number of bars and beaches.

 

I think most people are failing to take into account what is happening outside Thailand....if they become a red or amber destination they are even less likely to recover.  It also depends on which countries will allow tourists to go there and return and what vax passports are required internationally....e.g. airlines, transit countries..

So far Thailand has done anything but money number one...they have gone down the militaristic control route. They have not mentioned any grants or aid specifically...I suspect it will be those with the capital that benefit first and most from this and Thailand's product will become increasingly bland and unattractive for western tastes.

[kinyara]

Re Leaver, " How many of the well established businesses are left now ".  ?

 

I said at the start of your "Is the closure of your favourite bar or restaurant imminent thread that I was confident my regular long standing favourites would survive, To date that has still been the case, professionally run businesses with a well established customer base of resident expats built up over the years. Typically this customer base would be what covered their operating costs during the low season months every year previous as other less professional businesses came and went year after year in the normal Pattaya business cycle of failures.

 

I will be honest enough to admit if one of them goes in the next 6 months.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, Leaver said:

The world should hope the virus doesn't mutate into something the current vaccines are useless against, because if it does, the world goes back to March 2020. 

I can't see the masses accepting that. IMO more likely our "leaders" will have to learn to live with it. Protect the actually vulnerable if they wish to be isolated, and let natural immunity through infection happen.

Seems that Britain has gone down that route already, though I don't know what they are doing for the actually vulnerable.

Edited August 23, 2021 by thaibeachlovers

[BritManToo]

19 hours ago, Leaver said:

Thailand will eventually vaccinate to around 60% to 70% and open up.  It could take another year. 

My prediction, Thailand will vaccinate to 30% in the next 2 years then quietly give up.

[kwilco]

Expat immigrant businesses  are a relatively small part of the Thai economy.

If the tourist industry doesn't recover, neither will the associated businesses. .. everything from hotels to supermarkets will face reduced numbers. This means that a lot of the things that expats enjoy will fade away...in the end so too will the expats.

The whole expat economy is inherently  linked to tourism...if tourism contracts, so will expats.

[thaibeachlovers]

26 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Expat immigrant businesses  are a relatively small part of the Thai economy.

If the tourist industry doesn't recover, neither will the associated businesses. .. everything from hotels to supermarkets will face reduced numbers. This means that a lot of the things that expats enjoy will fade away...in the end so too will the expats.

The whole expat economy is inherently  linked to tourism...if tourism contracts, so will expats.

IMO the tourist industry isn't going away at all. Once the corona thing has been dealt with one way or another, IMO the Chinese will be back, en mass. Once the railway is built high speed trains will deliver the masses directly to Pattaya.

However, I doubt the experience will encourage western tourists to return in significant numbers.

[BritManToo]

51 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Expat immigrant businesses  are a relatively small part of the Thai economy.

If the tourist industry doesn't recover, neither will the associated businesses. .. everything from hotels to supermarkets will face reduced numbers. This means that a lot of the things that expats enjoy will fade away...in the end so too will the expats.

The whole expat economy is inherently  linked to tourism...if tourism contracts, so will expats.

I don't think many tourists buy Marmite, Typhoo tea bags or HP Sauce.

Which are the only imported items I buy.

 

The tourist hotels all seem to serve that nasty Liptons tea.

I'm OK with all the tourists being gone forever.

Edited August 23, 2021 by BritManToo

[GStewart70]

31 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think many tourists buy Marmite, Typhoo tea bags or HP Sauce.

Which are the only imported items I buy.

 

The tourist hotels all seem to serve that nasty Liptons tea.

I'm OK with all the tourists being gone forever.

Unfortunately Einstein, that basically spells curtains for all the bars and gogos that expats depend on.

You could learn to speak mandarin, i suppose, to greet your new neighours.

[BritManToo]

Just now, GStewart70 said:

Unfortunately Einstein, that basically spells curtains for all the bars and gogos that expats depend on.

You could learn to speak mandarin, i suppose, to greet your new neighours.

You depend on bars and gogos?

I'd like to suggest you getting a real life.

Edited August 23, 2021 by BritManToo

[GStewart70]

1 minute ago, BritManToo said:

You depend on bars and gogos?

I'd like to suggest you getting a real life.

Sorry pops, forgot you'd had yours already.

Tad selfish to deprive others of a bit of fun.

If you know what that is.

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the tourist industry isn't going away at all. Once the corona thing has been dealt with one way or another, IMO the Chinese will be back, en mass. Once the railway is built high speed trains will deliver the masses directly to Pattaya.

However, I doubt the experience will encourage western tourists to return in significant numbers.

Said before it is down to product... and there is unlikely to be the available for westerners as before.

[kwilco]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think many tourists buy Marmite, Typhoo tea bags or HP Sauce.

Which are the only imported items I buy.

 

The tourist hotels all seem to serve that nasty Liptons tea.

I'm OK with all the tourists being gone forever.

The demographics will change too. With a predominantly Asian / Chinese market, you will find Marmite less easy to buy.

Tours golf etc aimed at westerners will dwindle as will restaurants that rely on western tourists and the western brothels too.

The reason Pattaya was so popular with western immigrant expats was because of all the stuff it had aimed at tourists. This will go. A tone who has lived in rural or non tourist Thailand will tell you what that is like. Dome live it, but it isnt for the majority..

[swissie]

On 8/20/2021 at 12:20 PM, HashBrownHarry said:

C'mon, it's not gonna be like this forever....is it?

As long as 1/3 of the western population staunchly refuses to get vaccinated and the 3rd world is undersupplied with vaccines, this may last forever.

Not to forget, it's just a matter of time until the virus mutates to a point where vaccines offer no more protection. It's not a matter of "if", rather "when".

My original post, recommending "buy low, sell high", I can no longer support. This is an entirely new ball-game, where former "fundamental-axioms" can no longer serve as a reliable compass to guide us to make reasonable financial/life decisions.

Like I said. This is an entierly new "ball-game".

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, kwilco said:

Tours golf etc aimed at westerners will dwindle as will restaurants that rely on western tourists and the western brothels too.

IMO no visible "western" brothels in Pattaya or any place I went in Thailand. The Thais may have them, and westerners may use them, but they ain't "western".

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, swissie said:

As long as 1/3 of the western population staunchly refuses to get vaccinated and the 3rd world is undersupplied with vaccines, this may last forever.

Not to forget, it's just a matter of time until the virus mutates to a point where vaccines offer no more protection. It's not a matter of "if", rather "when".

My original post, recommending "buy low, sell high", I can no longer support. This is an entirely new ball-game, where former "fundamental-axioms" can no longer serve as a reliable compass to guide us to make reasonable financial/life decisions.

Like I said. This is an entierly new "ball-game".

If it means the end to hearing about covid covid covid all the time, and we start living with it, rather than a fruitless attempt to exterminate it ( which ain't going to happen IMO ) with economy destroying lockdowns, that can't happen soon enough for me.

[HashBrownHarry]

18 hours ago, BritManToo said:

You depend on bars and gogos?

I'd like to suggest you getting a real life.

Says he that keeps going on about 'banging' and going to Cambodia coz you can save 10 baht - lol

 

Quality - i needed a good laugh, thanks.

[polpott]

On 8/23/2021 at 6:24 AM, kinyara said:

Re Leaver, " How many of the well established businesses are left now ".  ?

 

I said at the start of your "Is the closure of your favourite bar or restaurant imminent thread that I was confident my regular long standing favourites would survive, To date that has still been the case, professionally run businesses with a well established customer base of resident expats built up over the years. Typically this customer base would be what covered their operating costs during the low season months every year previous as other less professional businesses came and went year after year in the normal Pattaya business cycle of failures.

 

I will be honest enough to admit if one of them goes in the next 6 months.

 

All Retox bars are no more. Retox Soi Honey was one of the most popular bars in Pattaya pre pandemic. Fits all your criteria but now gone. There are others.

[Kaoboi Bebobp]

9 minutes ago, polpott said:

All Retox bars are no more. Retox Soi Honey was one of the most popular bars in Pattaya pre pandemic. Fits all your criteria but now gone. There are others.

Oddly enough, I thought of Retox Game On yesterday for the same reason. The Retox name has been wiped off the map, except for Game On which is listed on Google maps as "permanently closed." That was a very sad day. For a quality pub to call it quits says something negative about the future of Pattaya and the status of Thailand as a westerners' tourist zone. I'll just leave it at that. 

 

 

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, HashBrownHarry said:

Says he that keeps going on about 'banging' and going to Cambodia coz you can save 10 baht - lol

Quality - i needed a good laugh, thanks.

I go to Cambodia for 2 reasons,

1) two of my pals live there.

2) 90 day VISA jump on my Non O.

 

What was I supposed to be saving 10bht on?

Or did you just make that up?

Edited August 24, 2021 by BritManToo

[Rimmer]

Troll post removed

[kinyara]

4 hours ago, polpott said:

All Retox bars are no more. Retox Soi Honey was one of the most popular bars in Pattaya pre pandemic. Fits all your criteria but now gone. There are others.

There is a business model that usually gets exposed quite quickly in a downturn when there are no investors to attract or buyers to flip the business to. It always seems to be based on relentless self promotion and marketing hype. Not in the least bit surprised they are no more.