Thailand reports 5,406 new COVID-19 cases, 22 more deaths

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

54 minutes ago, anchadian said:

kaewmala  

@Thai_Talk

Rural Doctor Society says Siam Bioscience’s production capacity of AstraZeneca seems to be settling at 15 million doses per month, short of expected 20 mil/month. Of this, only 4 mil doses will go to Thailand per month, far short of expected 10 mil doses/month from July.

 

 

 

I believe we're coming up on two weeks now since the Intervac website for foreigners to register for unavailable COVID vaccines was taken offline (and it has remained offline ever since, offline in the sense that you can no longer register there or book any appointments or even check on pre-existing ones).

 

I keep waiting to see photos of pallets of the locally produced AZ vaccine being sent out for distribution to the country, like the Thai authorities regularly like to promote for the arriving imported doses of Chinese Sinovac vaccines.  But thus far, not seeing any of those kinds of "AZ vaccines arriving" photos, and instead, just talk and promises.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 minutes ago, club said:

so Phuket is not even close to 70% fully vaccinated

 

Depends on whether you (or in this case the Thai government) are using the first shot, or the full second shot, as the yardstick.

 

In that same chart, the first-shot-only number for Phuket province thru June 24 was 64%....

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[ThailandRyan]

Newly posted and now available COE's for 66 countries to come and frolic in the Sandbox.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40002558

[wensiensheng]

10 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

0.0078217364 mortality rate...if only crossing the street in Thailand was as safe.

 

(And the link was for the statistics...and is required when providing numbers to make a point...)

I wanted to give you the opportunity to concede gracefully. Since that isn’t going to happen.

 

from your original post:

 

“The daily numbers have been in the 3k-5k range for months”

 

Below is a community cases chart posted today in this thread.  I added two red lines. The bottom one is the lower of your range (3k cases), the top one is the upper end of your range.

 

Community cases haven’t only been in the 3k to 5k range for months. Your statement was false. There isn’t anything more to say. Not about mortality, not about Phuket sandbox, not about exponential or not exponential. Just a chart showing the actuality of cases being consistently outside the range you stated they were in “for months”.

 

I excluded prison cases because they were getting dumped on certain days and not on others. I also didn’t include April. Cases never reached 3k back then either.

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

18 minutes ago, wensiensheng said:

I wanted to give you the opportunity to concede gracefully. Since that isn’t going to happen.

 

from your original post:

 

“The daily numbers have been in the 3k-5k range for months”

 

Below is a community cases chart posted today in this thread.  I added two red lines. The bottom one is the lower of your range (3k cases), the top one is the upper end of your range.

 

Community cases haven’t only been in the 3k to 5k range for months. Your statement was false. There isn’t anything more to say. Not about mortality, not about Phuket sandbox, not about exponential or not exponential. Just a chart showing the actuality of cases being consistently outside the range you stated they were in “for months”.

 

I excluded prison cases because they were getting dumped on certain days and not on others. I also didn’t include April. Cases never reached 3k back then either.

 

 

 

Prior to today, there were only TWO other days where Thailand's daily number of reported new COVID cases exceeded 5,000, and both of those (unlike today) involved substantial numbers of bulk prison cases that inflated those two daily numbers.

 

Today's 5,406 new cases report is the FIRST time it's ever happened in Thailand's COVID history based on regular daily case reporting not skewed by multi-day dumps of prison cases (the gray segments circled in red below). Today was a bad watershed event for Thailand thus far in the pandemic.

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/informationcovid19/photos/a.106455480972785/353499536268377/?type=3

 

Edited June 28, 2021 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Follow the trend lines since the beginning of June for both self-referred cases (the segments in blue) and then the combined all general population cases (the blue self-referred along with the yellow outreach testing ones).

 

[FarFlungFalang]

14 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Follow the trend lines since the beginning of June for both self-referred cases (the segments in blue) and then the combined all general population cases (the blue self-referred along with the yellow outreach testing ones).

 

What are you like at drawing exponential curves?You might have to learn a new trick you old dog!????

[Rimmer]

Multiple off topic posts dragging the US and trump into the topic have been removed

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

12 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What are you like at drawing exponential curves?You might have to learn a new trick you old dog!????

 

I've always avoided that particular linguistic debate here...   But I certainly do know the difference between UP and DOWN....  For some time now, COVID in Thailand has been on the UP trajectory.  ????

 

[wensiensheng]

15 minutes ago, FarFlungFalang said:

What are you like at drawing exponential curves?You might have to learn a new trick you old dog!????

Makes my two red lines look a bit dismal. ????

[FarFlungFalang]

3 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

I've always avoided that particular linguistic debate here...   But I certainly do know the difference between UP and DOWN....  For some time now, COVID in Thailand has been on the UP trajectory.  ????

 

That's very diplomatic, my forte is linguistic gymspastics in which I often score 11's out of 10!

[wensiensheng]

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

This story doesn't sound right. If the 5 from BKK had positive tests, they would not be free to leave the Bangkok area. If they all tested positive in the Village, that would be unusual, the village doesn't due lab tests.

 

I would bet money the real story is that 5 people showed up from BKK, the headman told them to self isolate, and the rumor started that they had COVID, because they are from BKK and are isolating. 

My wife tells me it was 5 guys from bangkok who went home to Loei, mixed with locals, including their own kids who go to the local school, then got sick, got tested and found to have delta variant. It happened over the course of a few days.

 

it’s from my wife who said she heard it on “the news” (although we don’t have local tv), so give it as much credence as you want. She is in Udon atm.

[Enzian]

3 hours ago, club said:

In other words like they told me when I was in quarantine if you test positive you go to the hospital until you test negative. Bring lots of money 

I'm flying out of BKK to SFO in two weeks, and reading all the FAQ on the United site (I'm flying on two of its partners) ran  across something that was unexpected--to ME. If one cannot get a negative test just before one's flight, you don't just cancel and wait till you CAN pull a negative test, what you do is isolate for a period recommended by a doctor and then if active symptoms have never developed he writes a letter that you are good to go. They do NOT want you getting two tests in a three month stretch because the second test could easily be positive, but almost certainly meaningless.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Enzian
clarity

[sezze]

2 hours ago, club said:

See that's the problem . The government seems to think all you need is one jab of Sinovac or AZ and you will be just fine. The real sad reason is they wont spend the money to FULLY vaccinate everyone in Phuket. Even in this Phuket sandbox where all eyes will be on them they still dont get it. This will not end well. Enjoy the Covid 19 box 

Not only you need the 2 , but a vaccine does not work in single second . It's not oh i got a shot and now i am fine . It takes a few weeks (2-3 weeks ) before your body has learned how it should react and got it's defense starting to get working .

Since the sandbox would only take vaccinated people in , then it should be ok , but still , i think it comes 1 month too fast .

[bermondburi]

I'd still go to Phuket if I could. Whatever people say about it....

1) it's still better than ASQ in Bangkok.

2) it's cheaper.

3) less C19 in Phuket than Bangkok.

4) not many people about, easy to relax and just take normal precautions.

 

Of course no tourists will do it. But foreigners with Thai family will, as will returning Thais.

 

Be interesting to see what happens to ASQ occupancy rates in Bangkok.

 

Unfortunately, I won't be doing it because 14 days is too long for me, and I just read something in the nation saying that my country isn't in the list of 66 countries eligible to get CoE for Phuket.

 

IMO Sbox will be slow starting but there will be steady trickle. Don't see any reason not to go ahead with it. They may not be at 70% on Thursday, but they will later on, and there will be so few people visiting that it won't make much difference. 

 

Lot of doomsayers in here seem to think everyone in Phuket will die if everyone isn't vaccinated by Thursday. I beg to differ. 

 

Anyways, see what happens. 

 

And I just wanted to demonstrate that it's possible to make a post without mentioning US lockdowns in different states.

 

[Blumpie]

7 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Newly posted and now available COE's for 66 countries to come and frolic in the Sandbox.

https://www.nationthailand.com/in-focus/40002558

Please stop I spit coffee all over my laptop.  

[Petey11]

6 hours ago, Enzian said:

I'm flying out of BKK to SFO in two weeks, and reading all the FAQ on the United site (I'm flying on two of its partners) ran  across something that was unexpected--to ME. If one cannot get a negative test just before one's flight, you don't just cancel and wait till you CAN pull a negative test, what you do is isolate for a period recommended by a doctor and then if active symptoms have never developed he writes a letter that you are good to go. They do NOT want you getting two tests in a three month stretch because the second test could easily be positive, but almost certainly meaningless.

Think the UK is the same in general testing, pretty sure if you have had a positive covid result they say you shouldn't get tested again for 90 days or 3 months, due to the fact that you could still show positive but not be infectious. Generally accepted I think that after 10-14 days you are no longer shedding a virus load to infect people but may have virus in your body that can show positive on a PCR test. One man on a phone in said he is still testing positive months later and suffering long covid as well.

[irishman25]

21 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The number of hospital walk-ins vs those detected via testing is critical today. Are the numbers higher due to increased testing? 

THE answer is YES if they do a lot more testing you will see over 15-to 20k a day that's only in BKK

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, Blumpie said:

Please stop I spit coffee all over my laptop.  

Why, was it that funny to have 66 countries instead of fewer, maybe they wanted it to be 69 but just did nit have the strength.

[ThailandRyan]

49 minutes ago, irishman25 said:

THE answer is YES if they do a lot more testing you will see over 15-to 20k a day that's only in BKK

I would have to agree with that sentiment.  Test and yes you shall find.  They have unfortunately never wanted to know the true extent and apparently could never handle the enormity of cases within the hospital system here, even though they have always stated they were prepared and could.

[Danderman123]

11 hours ago, FarFlungFalang said:

I think these days 5000 empty beds would fill up in about 2 days.

Except that about 5,000 people are released from field hospitals every 2 days.

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

The number of hospital walk-ins vs those detected via testing is critical today. Are the numbers higher due to increased testing? 

Cluster areas have to be tested.... so they increase the numbers.

Walk-ins to hospital with symptoms are also increasing.... not sure if/how they are recorded.

[Danderman123]

10 hours ago, wensiensheng said:

My wife tells me it was 5 guys from bangkok who went home to Loei, mixed with locals, including their own kids who go to the local school, then got sick, got tested and found to have delta variant. It happened over the course of a few days.

 

it’s from my wife who said she heard it on “the news” (although we don’t have local tv), so give it as much credence as you want. She is in Udon atm.

That sounds more realistic, not 5 guys showing up all at once yesterday and testing positive, but some time ago. So there won’t be 5 Lori cases on the provincial reports today.

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Cluster areas have to be tested.... so they increase the numbers.

Walk-ins to hospital with symptoms are also increasing.... not sure if/how they are recorded.

Hospital walk-in cases are reported every day, yesterday was 3800.

 

it should be possible to show a correlation between hospital walk-in numbers and total new cases 2 or 3 days later. If walk-ins increase, then total new cases should similarly increase down the road, due to a short lag for contact tracing.

[webfact]

Thailand reports 4,662 new COVID-19 cases, 36 more deaths

 

File photo//REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

Thailand on Tuesday (June 29) reported 4,662 new COVID-19 cases and 36 additional deaths over the past 24 hours. 

 

Full story: https://forum.thaivisa.com/topic/1222037-thailand-reports-4662-new-covid-19-cases-36-more-deaths/

 

//CLOSED//

/Admin