NVI sourcing more vaccines after AstraZeneca shortfall

[webfact]

 

By Praphorn Praphornkul

   

BANGKOK (NNT) - The Director of the National Vaccine Institute (NVI) has acknowledged Thailand was slow to place its vaccination orders while reporting registration and orders for Pfizer brand jabs have been completed and are only pending contract signing. He acknowledged that deliveries of AstraZeneca have dropped to 5-6 million doses a month from an agreement for 10 million due to demand from other nations.

 

Speaking at the “How will Thailand Proceed with COVID-19 Vaccinations” seminar, NVI Director Dr. Nakorn Premsri explained Siam BioScience was unable to deliver a promised 10 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine in June, providing only 6 million doses, but is expected to improve its capacity in coming months. The company is able to produce 15-16 million doses a month but has commitments to other countries and has so far only been able to provide 5-6 million doses to Thailand.

 

In light of the situation, the institute has however, sought to secure vaccines from other sources. It has drafted an order for 20 million doses from Pfizer and expects to receive a delivery in the fourth quarter, somewhat slower than an earlier projection of the third quarter. Dr. Nakorn attributed the delay to Thailand’s slowed requests due to various factors and high global demand. He mentioned that his organization is thoroughly vetting agreements after it saw deals favoring producers struck by other countries.

 

He responded to accusations that no contracts for the order have been signed by saying that the process of acquisition involves first placing an order, which the NVI did in June. Contracts are now being drafted.

 

Specialist adviser on epidemiology to the Minister of Public Health Dr. Kamnuan Ungchusak meanwhile, admitted that the appearance of the Delta strain of the COVID-19 virus during the third wave of infections in Thailand, may well worsen the situation over the next three months, pointing out that the variant now makes up over 40 percent of all cases in Bangkok and is set to become the dominant strain in one to two months, with an infection rate 1.4 times higher than its Alpha counterpart.

 

He projects that deaths from COVID-19 will rise from 992 in June to 1,400 in July, and then to 2,000 in August and 2,800 in September, ultimately crippling the public health system.

 

In light of the prediction, he advised the government and COVID-19 administrative center, to select groups to be vaccinated carefully, so as to reduce loss of life.

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2021-07-03

 

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[RichardColeman]

6 minutes ago, webfact said:

He projects that deaths from COVID-19 will rise from 992 in June to 1,400 in July, and then to 2,000 in August and 2,800 in September, ultimately crippling the public health system.

To the guy that said my comment of covid 'devastating' the Thai health system soon was unrealistic or unfounded - well, there you go bud, from the horses own mouth !

 

I'd also say Thailand is on course also for just under 2000 dead this month - not 1400 - we're already seeing 50-60 a day. And I would not be the least surprised to see 4000 and 6000 thereafter if the health system has been so crippled as the health care people say it will be and no vaccines. 

 

 

 

 

It also means 

[smedly]

16 minutes ago, webfact said:

The company is able to produce 15-16 million doses a month but has commitments to other countries and has so far only been able to provide 5-6 million doses to Thailand.

"The Company" I thought this facility was Thai owned, why are they exporting 70% of production ?

[smedly]

21 minutes ago, webfact said:

Specialist adviser on epidemiology to the Minister of Public Health Dr. Kamnuan Ungchusak meanwhile, admitted that the appearance of the Delta strain of the COVID-19 virus during the third wave of infections in Thailand, may well worsen the situation over the next three months, pointing out that the variant now makes up over 40 percent of all cases in Bangkok and is set to become the dominant strain in one to two months, with an infection rate 1.4 times higher than its Alpha counterpart.

 

why is Bangkok not locked down with travel restrictions imposed to other provenances, pretty sure there will be many flocking to Chonburi this weekend mostly to Ban Saen  Pattaya and Rayong

[thaitero]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

"The Company" I thought this facility was Thai owned, why are they exporting 70% of production ?

Contract with Astra Zeneca dictates what goes out and what stays in.

It is Astra Zeneca vaccine what they are doing not Thai vaccine..

[smedly]

5 minutes ago, thaitero said:

Contract with Astra Zeneca dictates what goes out and what stays in.

It is Astra Zeneca vaccine what they are doing not Thai vaccine..

Oh

[ukrules]

If those in the government act RIGHT NOW and place an advance order for Novavax before it clears the clinical trials they might have a chance of getting their hands on millions of doses, perhaps more.

 

the important thing is to get in before it's approved - chance of a life time right there.

 

Not to be ignored.

 

My hunch - they will do nothing.

[ikke1959]

Unbelievable..... we order, but we don't sign contracts first, soon we will sign contracts, we don;t  have contracts yet..... but keep calm, everything under control.. in the 4th quarter or maybe next year.. don't worry be happy

[rabas]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The company is able to produce 15-16 million doses a month but has commitments to other countries and has so far only been able to provide 5-6 million doses to Thailand.

 

Why does no one question this inalienable responsibility of a Thai company to send most of its vaccine production overseas during Thailand's deadly epidemic? Why? Contracts? Does Thailand not have 'contracts' too? If AstraZenica and SiamBioscience failed a company objective, why are Thai people singled out for punishment?  Something very wrong, again. Anutin.

[mtls2005]

It's Committee time.

 

 

Amazingly, Sinpoharm and Sinovac orders are reviewed and placed in one day. Delivered in a few weeks.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Delta strain of the COVID-19 virus during the third wave of infections in Thailand, may well worsen the situation over the next three months, pointing out that the variant now makes up over 40 percent of all cases in Bangkok

Delta now 40% of all cases in Bangkok, soon to dominate throughout Thailand.

[harada]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

"The Company" I thought this facility was Thai owned, why are they exporting 70% of production ?

The almighty baht, number one.

[harada]

59 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Why does no one question this inalienable responsibility of a Thai company to send most of its vaccine production overseas during Thailand's deadly epidemic? Why? Contracts? Does Thailand not have 'contracts' too? If AstraZenica and SiamBioscience failed a company objective, why are Thai people singled out for punishment?  Something very wrong, again. Anutin.

Because no one dares question those behind SiamBioscience.

[mtls2005]

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

If those in the government act RIGHT NOW

 

Good one.

 

2 hours ago, ukrules said:

place an advance order for Novavax before it clears the clinical trials

 

said to be at least two months off, said to be quite expensive, so volumes for Thailand would be at least 8 months off. Maybe fine for a side wager, but going all in? Nope.

 

Thailand is stuck, is it too late to join COVAX?

 

Dribs, drabs of Sinopharm, Sinovac and AZ are it for this year. If they get to 30% fully vaccinated by year end that would be a miracle. Or they could get one dose of something into 50 MM by year's end, but that's a stretch too.

 

 

I know the government does not want the private option, but tell that to the million plus Thais who paid for Moderna betting on the come.

 

They've got to open the private option even though that makes them lose face.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by mtls2005

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

"The Company" I thought this facility was Thai owned, why are they exporting 70% of production ?

Huge amounts of Vaccine will have to be Exported under agreements made between AZ and SB.

The AZ Facility was established to supply all of SE Asia with their Vaccine, and SB are only the Licensed manufacturer of the Vaccine.

AZ will be under contractual obligations to supply the other Nations in SE Asia, and have already reneged on several deliveries to those Nations.

I really cannot believe that the Thai Government though, or were under the impression, that all the Vaccine made was for sole use in Thailand.

Or, are they trying to move the Goal Posts after the game has started .... Hmmmm

 

 

[FritsSikkink]

"orders for Pfizer brand jabs have been completed and are only pending contract signing."

If you haven signed a contract, you have completed NOTHING.

[sharecropper]

It is time for a government of National Unity with Thanatorn as Prime Minister, given he predicted this mess months ago. The Thai press should be getting comment from him on this disaster instead of shamefully ignoring the vindictiveness of this 'government's' treatment of him.

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

 

why is Bangkok not locked down with travel restrictions imposed to other provenances, pretty sure there will be many flocking to Chonburi this weekend mostly to Ban Saen  Pattaya and Rayong

Well Rayong has some Beach use restrictions and Chonburi just introduced some alcohol sales ones... but the need to get out of Bangkok is always strong..... looks like another hot and sunny one. 

[bradiston]

1 hour ago, rabas said:

 

Why does no one question this inalienable responsibility of a Thai company to send most of its vaccine production overseas during Thailand's deadly epidemic? Why? Contracts? Does Thailand not have 'contracts' too? If AstraZenica and SiamBioscience failed a company objective, why are Thai people singled out for punishment?  Something very wrong, again. Anutin.

I don't believe they've sent anything abroad and I don't believe they (ever) will. It's just a smokescreen to hide production failures back home.

 

BTW it's possible to ring AstraZaneca in the UK and ask them what the heck is going on out here. Ok, you probably, almost certainly, won't get an answer, but you should get through, and a 3 minute Skype call from 20,000 extremely annoyed ex pats might get the message home. The Thai HQ had number unobtainable last time I tried. Then of course there's the head of AZ (Thailand), James Teague. Maybe he could shed some light on the whole subject.

[clivebaxter]

48 minutes ago, sharecropper said:

It is time for a government of National Unity with Thanatorn as Prime Minister, given he predicted this mess months ago. The Thai press should be getting comment from him on this disaster instead of shamefully ignoring the vindictiveness of this 'government's' treatment of him.

wasn't he arrested for telling the truth?

[Khun Yogi]

4 hours ago, smedly said:

"The Company" I thought this facility was Thai owned, why are they exporting 70% of production ?

Siam Bioscience is the Thai company owned by the CPU. They make Astra Zeneca under license, not very well it seems ???

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

The Director of the National Vaccine Institute (NVI) has acknowledged Thailand was slow to place its vaccination orders while reporting registration and orders for Pfizer brand jabs have been completed and are only pending contract signing. He acknowledged that deliveries of AstraZeneca have dropped to 5-6 million doses a month from an agreement for 10 million due to demand from other nations.

Yet someone says Thailands vaccine programme is ahead of schedule?

This month to fall behind somewhat.

 

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

Delta now 40% of all cases in Bangkok, soon to dominate throughout Thailand.

Give it as month and see the numbers rocket as Delta takes a hold nationwide, not just in Bangkok.

[newnative]

    Still absolutely NO sense of urgency.  Well, the orders have to be written up and then the contracts have to be drafted and then reviewed by this or that agency and then approved by this or that agency and then who knows what happens next--except likely more slow as molasses bureaucracy.  All way too little and too slow in a crisis situation.  

[mtls2005]

Sinopharm was royally gazetted in minutes, order placed/confirmed in one day, 1 MM doses delivered in Thailand within ~ 12 days.

 

Amazing.

 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2021 by mtls2005

[pentagara]

4 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

It's Committee time.

 

 

Amazingly, Sinpoharm and Sinovac orders are reviewed and placed in one day. Delivered in a few weeks.

 

 

 

Actually, that's not that surprising. For one, increasing the order volumes of an existing contract is always quicker than signing the first ever contract. Just talk to any sourcing department in a company.

 

More important though is something else: The production capacity and actual deliveries of the Sinovac vaccine are the largest by far for any Covid vaccine globally, much larger than Pfizer's who comes a distant second. They ramped up production quickly and much faster than any other vaccine producer. Sinopharm is successfully (!) expanding production capacity rapidly as well. The main reason for this should be experience. The Sinovac vaccine, same as Sinopharm, is an inactivated virus vaccine and as such uses the same well known production processes that are used for many other vaccines as well. Even if you're new to the party as a producer, you can build on decade old knowledge.

 

Pfizer uses relatively new technology, but at least could build on their own knowledge of mass scale vaccine production and multiple years of lab research on mRNA by BionTech. Furthermore, the vaccine also was approved by FDA/ EMA and produced at scale as one of the first covid vaccines, so they in total had more time to iron out production deficiencies than eg. Astra. They also had and have good estimates of what they actually can deliver. Their sales planning has been very conservative, they only sold what they confidently thought they can actually deliver (see fullfilment of contractual obligations in Europe, US). They were rewarded for this behavior as well: Pfizer/BionTech have a pristine reputation currently not only for the efficacy of the vaccine, but also for keeping their delivery promises.  As a result, they have no incentive to overpromise on delivery obligations right now.

 

Plus, Thailand is not exactly in the front of the line with Pfizer either. Thailand was not interested in procuring the vaccine for all of 2020 and most of 2021. That's also why the vaccine was only approved in Thailand last week. With Sinovac and Astra these processes were closed months ago, mainly because the people in charge then chose Sinovac as the preferred bridge to the date they were told that AstraZeneca could deliver (as per Astra's own overblown delivery promises made last year). So no one invested time and effort to approve anything with Pfizer in Thailand for months and months, neither Pfizer themselves, nor Thai authorities.

 

As for AstraZeneca, it's again a completely different story. Thailand actually did an impressively good job in contrast to e.g. the EU or Australia, they ensured that the vaccine they bought is produced in Thailand. They unfortunately did fall victim to Astra's vaccine production inexperience though (just look at the mess Aatra is in in Europe):

- Astra never produced any vaccines before, they started from scratch with no people that have experience in vaccine production and no corporate knowledge. The same is true for many of their supply chain partners.

- they had no knowledge of how an approval process for vaccines works, so they made multiple blunders then, which delayed approval and not only heavily impacted the reputation of the vaccine, but also the start of mass-scale production (i.e. less time until now in total to iron out production issues compared to both Pfizer and Sinovac).

- they seem to have a sales team that aggressively agreed to contractual obligations that are roughly twice the amount of their actual production capacity. I guess the bonus system of the sales guys at Astra isn't linked to the company's ability to deliver - a common problem, actually.

 

So, in total:

- with Astra you were able to get contracts quickly, but they overpromised and continue to underdeliver. Not only Thailand was hit by this issue without expecting it, but pretty much all countries and organizations that bought the Oxford vaccine from Astra

- with Pfizer it's very tough to secure a contract now, but they delivered as promised and continue to do so, once you actually manage to get a contract signed

- with Sinovac contractual processes have closed months ago, they also continue to deliver as promised and are open to increasing order volumes as well

 

As a result it's not surprising that it's much easier right now for Thailand to order more vaccines from Sinovac than getting agreed and signed contracts for the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine. Furthermore they don't seem to (want to) understand the different corporate and legal culture of an American corporate vs. an Asian corporate. With Asian corporates you can make a handshake agreement and get the contracts in place later, especially if there are other ties. With American corporates you have absolutely nothing until something is signed, but once you do, you can expect turnaround.

 

Am actually not fully sure myself what you can expect from a Swedish-British corporate though. Mixed results, I guess.

Edited July 3, 2021 by pentagara

[mtls2005]

7 minutes ago, pentagara said:

Actually, that's not that surprising. For one, increasing the order volumes of an existing contract is always quicker than signing the first ever contract. Just talk to any sourcing department in a company.

 

Sinopharm was a "first-ever" contract.

 

The "first-ever" Sinovac "contract" was similarly completed in record time. Like days.

 

The regime has been working on Moderna and Pfizer contracts for MONTHS. And been telling us all was going well. Now we're told that the contracts are stuck in the Thai bureaucarcy, and no one seems to know what's going on.

 

Surprising? No, of course not.

 

SoP? No.

 

 

"Just talk to any sourcing department in a company."

 

You mean the Thai government? Right.

 

That's who's buying Moderna, Pfizer, AZ, Sino-xxx.

 

[vinci]

read the Bangkok post about the shortages of vaccine and we all will know why, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore all bought Pfizer and Moderna only Thailand got none, private hospital cannot buy them because they only sell to government, in respond Thai government said that they had (NO DUTY) to draw up contract, they only buy Sinovac and produce AstraZeneca in the country even that fail because they had contract with other country and have to gave away some of the AstraZeneca, that is why Thailand is shortage, unbelievable with these guy.

[bradiston]

24 minutes ago, pentagara said:

 

Actually, that's not that surprising. For one, increasing the order volumes of an existing contract is always quicker than signing the first ever contract. Just talk to any sourcing department in a company.

 

More important though is something else: The production capacity and actual deliveries of the Sinovac vaccine are the largest by far for any Covid vaccine globally, much larger than Pfizer's who comes a distant second. They ramped up production quickly and much faster than any other vaccine producer. Sinopharm is successfully (!) expanding production capacity rapidly as well. The main reason for this should be experience. The Sinovac vaccine, same as Sinopharm, is an inactivated virus vaccine and as such uses the same well known production processes that are used for many other vaccines as well. Even if you're new to the party as a producer, you can build on decade old knowledge.

 

Pfizer uses relatively new technology, but at least could build on their own knowledge of mass scale vaccine production and multiple years of lab research on mRNA by BionTech. Furthermore, the vaccine also was approved by FDA/ EMA and produced at scale as one of the first covid vaccines, so they in total had more time to iron out production deficiencies than eg. Astra. They also had and have good estimates of what they actually can deliver. Their sales planning has been very conservative, they only sold what they confidently thought they can actually deliver (see fullfilment of contractual obligations in Europe, US). They were rewarded for this behavior as well: Pfizer/BionTech have a pristine reputation currently not only for the efficacy of the vaccine, but also for keeping their delivery promises.  As a result, they have no incentive to overpromise on delivery obligations right now.

 

Plus, Thailand is not exactly in the front of the line with Pfizer either. Thailand was not interested in procuring the vaccine for all of 2020 and most of 2021. That's also why the vaccine was only approved in Thailand last week. With Sinovac and Astra these processes were closed months ago, mainly because the people in charge then chose Sinovac as the preferred bridge to the date they were told that AstraZeneca could deliver (as per Astra's own overblown delivery promises made last year). So no one invested time and effort to approve anything with Pfizer in Thailand for months and months, neither Pfizer themselves, nor Thai authorities.

 

As for AstraZeneca, it's again a completely different story. Thailand actually did an impressively good job in contrast to e.g. the EU or Australia, they ensured that the vaccine they bought is produced in Thailand. They unfortunately did fall victim to Astra's vaccine production inexperience though (just look at the mess Aatra is in in Europe):

- Astra never produced any vaccines before, they started from scratch with no people that have experience in vaccine production and no corporate knowledge. The same is true for many of their supply chain partners.

- they had no knowledge of how an approval process for vaccines works, so they made multiple blunders then, which delayed approval and not only heavily impacted the reputation of the vaccine, but also the start of mass-scale production (i.e. less time until now in total to iron out production issues compared to both Pfizer and Sinovac).

- they seem to have a sales team that aggressively agreed to contractual obligations that are roughly twice the amount of their actual production capacity. I guess the bonus system of the sales guys at Astra isn't linked to the company's ability to deliver - a common problem, actually.

 

So, in total:

- with Astra you were able to get contracts quickly, but they overpromised and continue to underdeliver. Not only Thailand was hit by this issue without expecting it, but pretty much all countries and organizations that bought the Oxford vaccine from Astra

- with Pfizer it's very tough to secure a contract now, but they delivered as promised and continue to do so, once you actually manage to get a contract signed

- with Sinovac contractual processes have closed months ago, they also continue to deliver as promised and are open to increasing order volumes as well

 

As a result it's not surprising that it's much easier right now for Thailand to order more vaccines from Sinovac than getting agreed and signed contracts for the Pfizer/Biontech vaccine. Furthermore they don't seem to (want to) understand the different corporate and legal culture of an American corporate vs. an Asian corporate. With Asian corporates you can make a handshake agreement and get the contracts in place later, especially if there are other ties. With American corporates you have absolutely nothing until something is signed, but once you do, you can expect turnaround.

 

Am actually not fully sure myself what you can expect from a Swedish-British corporate though. Mixed results, I guess.

Great post. Just one add on. I've read that AstraZaneca originally went to Taiwan to set up the SE Asian hub, but required 300m doses. The Taiwanese decided they couldn't cover that, and AZ went to Thailand. Heaven knows why. To a company that has never been in that business, and could never cover that amount?

 

Would they had negotiated a realistic number with Taiwan! But I suppose you could ask, yes, but how much of that would Thailand have received?

 

But, here, now, two suppliers would have a much better chance of supplying the huge SE Asian demand. Is it possible it is not too late to reopen negotiations with the Taiwanese? Just give them a license to produce as much as they can! Sheesh!

[pentagara]

6 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

"Just talk to any sourcing department in a company."

 

You mean the Thai government? Right.

 

That's who's buying Moderna, Pfizer,...

 

What Im meant is: Sourcing departments of most private companies are really slow with first time contracts, the bigger the company, the slower. So a government being faster than private companies would be a surprise.

 

So yeah, that it was quick with Sinopharm is noteworthy. Probably the government in question suddenly felt substantial pressure to act. I guess what happened after Sonkran wasn't really expected....

 

With Pfizer they won't get a quick delivery now even if they wanted it though. Thailand is pretty much at the end of the waiting line there. So any "talks" about a Pfizer delivery in Q4/2021 effectively will mean signed contracts for deliveries sometime in 2022.  However, since the public wants to get Pfizer right now and not in 2022, they just say: "Yeah, we're almost there."