Tourism Council announce their four scenarios for return of foreign tourists in 2021 - 3 million tops, 1 million worst

[shackleton]

These people must sit at their meetings and see who can come up with the best ideas for future  tourist arrivals 

Living in hope but what else is there does not inspire confidence 

In the future  coming months 

Maybe 2022

[connda]

22 hours ago, Mavideol said:

and here we go again with TAT estimates, this time they have 4 scenarios.... started to miss their usual weekly BS     555

Instead of looking like total idiots they are now hedging their bets.

[decca60]

21 hours ago, sapson said:

 

 

Really good to see the Thai government is an equal opportunities employer!

 

If you clearly have severe mental health issues you are more than welcome in a ministerial position.

 

You're absolutely right. It's the number one skill of the job description they use for recruitment. BTW you also have to be a general something which also includes the criteria number one

[Deli]

MY scenario: IF I win the next jackpot. I'll be be off to Miami South Beach

[newnative]

     As I've said before, pity they did not put the same effort into securing multiple brands of vaccines that they have expended on pipe dream after pipe dream.  It's telling that the only country they mention is China. Like the vaccine, they are once again putting all their eggs in one basket--we all know what a train wreck that has been with all the planning put on just the AZ vaccine.  

[TKDfella]

#1 is about 70667฿ per person. #2 is 76000฿. #3 is 76฿. #4 is 8300฿. #3 is a mistake or is it the truth poking through? 'Scenario #3: China says YES to its nationals travelling abroad but Bangkok is not able to open up = 1.4 million tourists spending 107 million baht' ????

[mickyr55]

21 hours ago, khunPer said:

It's difficult to predict, especially about the future...????

This lot couldn't predict the PAST ????

[4MyEgo]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

He then told Manager that he had come up with four scenarios about how the reopening of Thailand to foreign tourism in 2021 would pan out.

 

This is eerie, why on the 1st of July the Prime Minister of Australia came up with a 4 phase plan to open up Australia.

 

Makes me think if there is an actual manual that they are all referring too ?

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/02/australia-four-phase-plan-manage-covid-whas-is-pm-scott-morrison-point-step-stage-pathway-pandemic-exit

 

 

[ThailandRyan]

Signal flares are being launched to draw in Tourists, free sim cards for tracking are an added bonus, and then of course being monitored is what we all want....what the hell are these people dreaming of and what are the taking to induce these dreams.  Have they visited an Indian sweat Lodge in orser to find their spirit animal, or is the spirit animal a flying pig....asking for a friend.

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

He fully anticipated that to proceed brilliantly without a hitch and then nine other provinces - Bangkok, Phangnga, Krabi, Chonburi, Surat Thani, Phetchaburi, Prachuap Khirikhan, Buriram and Chiang Mai - to follow suit.

Bangkok... the man must need to see a neurosurgeon?

[Bobydog]

22 hours ago, Mavideol said:

and here we go again with TAT estimates, this time they have 4 scenarios.... started to miss their usual weekly BS     555

Totally agree, counting prospective Tourists as cash assets is as bad as referring to us as Aliens. Australia will reconsider overseas travel for tourism in October 2022.  All this flip flopping around with bad vaccine management etc is undermining any trust in Thailand Government to keep visitors safe. Obviously there are more tills empty in Thailand than Thai Air, the Junta collective need to come clean with the real state of the economy to keep even the Thai People safe let alone all the Expats,  and to provide a good secure future to look forward too.

[jomtienisgood]

23 hours ago, Surelynot said:

Scenario #1: The Chinese allow their nationals to travel in October and Bangkok is fully opened and the vaccine rollout is proceeding well = 3 million tourists spending 212 billion baht. Chinese nationals will not be allowed to travel and the vaccine roll will still be a complete and utter disaster

 

Scenario #2: The ten provinces are open but the Chinese government says NO to foreign travel = 2 million foreign tourists spending 152 billion baht. So many countries will be on each others Red Lists this won't happen

 

Scenario #3: China says YES to its nationals travelling abroad but Bangkok is not able to open up = 1.4 million tourists spending 107 million baht. 1.4 million from where? Never, Never Land.

 

Scenario #4 (called the "choke rai" or bad luck one by Wichit): Bangkok can't accept foreign tourists and the Chinese say NO = Only 1 million foreign tourists spending a paltry 8.3 billion. Still 1 million?......Not a snowball's.......

Around 300 arrived in ' The Sandcastle ' the first day, a good start. Do I need to mention this is sarcastic. 5555555

[Caldera]

Looking at the actual Phuket sandbox numbers that are starting to trickle in, let's just say I find this projection very optimistic, if not outright delusional.

[SomchaiCNX]

My personal experience with the TAT, listen very carefully what they say and propose, turn 180 degrees in the other direction and you will be fine.

Edited July 4, 2021 by SomchaiCNX

[greenmonkey]

My God... what am I reading!!! Hospitals already full... turning away people... delta variant the dominant strain... will be people dying in the streets soon and this fool is gushing about opening up to tourists.... are they really so naieve to not realise what is happening and that Thailand will shortly be on every countries red list which will mean = NO TOURISTS!!!! Imbeciles.... everywhere you look in every position of power and decision making... imbeciles.

[sezze]

How do they come up with the numbers ? Crystal ball ? They surely need a better one , since this 1 surely isn't working .

Infections are rising , Delta is all around , even Europe which is vaccinating at full speed is very worried about it . Thai vaccination is basically nowhere yet , and we are in the 7th month , while Europe started vaccinating in January ( ok , slow start because of lack of vaccines ) . In order to get a million of visitors , they are counting on the Chinese , but let's leave them out of the picture , since i do not know the rules there ( but as far as i heard , they aren't allowed outside China ) . The "sandbox " is a nice project for a start , but it is just a quarantine with some small gold leaves on top . It is still a lot of hassle to get there and with lots of extra paperwork , insurances , risks , ... in which nobody is waiting for . I do not see those rules going down a lot , but as long as they are there , i do not think any big mass of people is standing in line to get there . Then the infection numbers and the vaccinations . 1 month is practically nothing in raising vaccinations or getting the numbers down . As long as the infection numbers are high , not a lot of people are willing to come . As long as the vaccinations aren't there , i do not see a sustainable low infection number , and 1 month for vaccination is nothing also ( not even speaking on 2 shots needed and taking some time for them to work ) . If they are extremely lucky , and it would really surprise me , they get the numbers under control by September , and enough vaccinations and by October , some people might be thinking of booking but that would then be for November and December . No way 1 million people would be there in those 2 months .

[jomtienisgood]

15 minutes ago, SomchaiCNX said:

My personal experience with the TAT, listen very carefully what they say and propose, turn 180 degrees in the other direction and you will be fine.

Sounds like religion, listen to my words but don't look at my actions.......

[toolpush]

2 hours ago, Guderian said:

He forgot scenario #5:

Thailand gets the full Indian virus treatment starting in August, with 50,000 new cases every day and over 1,000 people dying. Hospitals and crematoria are overwhelmed, patients are dying in hospital car parks and bodies washing up on the beaches. Finally, the government abandons its plans to reopen to foreign tourists as nobody was making a booking anyway, and puts the entire country under total lockdown. Total foreign tourists = those who arrived in the Phuket sandbox before it was abandoned, or less than 10,000.

If that happens, perhaps they should do what the Indians did: Ivermectin protocol.

[connda]

2 hours ago, ronster said:

Here is the most likely ! 
Scenario #5 the Chinese aren’t allowed to come for at least a year , best amount arrived by end of the year is 100,000 people and the country is still under 40% population vaccinated at least once and bars and restaurants continue to close and open weekly at the slightest positive covid test !

Why would the Chinese let their citizens travel to a country that can't vaccinate their citizens (no less expat foreigners) and who have allowed their own Thai citizens to travel from Red-Zone hot-spots unimpeded spreading the virus far-and-wide across the country as though that's the goal - now twice!  Daily cases at 6000+ and rising?  Thailand isn't going to see Chinese this year imho.
If SARS-coV-2 vaccines imparted full immunity then this could be controlled.  But the vaccines don't impart full immunity (unless you believe some propaganda or feel-good marketing spiels).  So this will never be "under control." 
So, I think scenario 5 is more likely:  Something else much lower than over-blown TAT expectations.

[connda]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And remember, with the daily count rising here, international tourists are taking a far greater risk by being here, and being exposed to the Thais, than the Thai people are taking by being exposed to them.

Exactly!

[Richard Hall]

Anyway, talking scenario:

 

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html

[connda]

1 hour ago, Deli said:

MY scenario: IF I win the next jackpot. I'll be be off to Miami South Beach

Playa del Carmen

[Surasak]

IF, the government ever get around to vaccinating all of the people, including foreigners, between now and October, maybe they will have the good fortunes they hope for. As the flocks of pigs gather for their regular flights, they have a navigational problem. All the pie in the sky promises made over the past 7 years.

 

[monty1412]

I dont know why but it seems there is no end to the staff  in TAT who are willing to open their mouths to accept one or both feet.. the best TAT could do now is shut the hell up ... 

[Tbone999]

You can almost visualize gollum rubbing hands gleefully with $ eyes whispering, mine all mine...

[DUNROAMIN]

Sure, I always believe TAT says, same Mr Anutin tell everything OK plenty of beds in Hospital.

[bullseye66]

Most of us on this forum know the situation, the lies, the stupidity.  And most of us won't be travelling to Thailand until the ridiculous quarentine rules and various other daft rules are removed and bars, restaurants and entertainment areas can open fully. That is the reality.

[rupert the bear]

chortle chortle.the guys got a sense of humour,every day cases soar and the gvt has a deliberate policy of testing as few people as possible!!vaccines?.ask the health minister-it may be a farang vaccine thais want but the filthy scum can stay away. just post the money on. well maybe not. come we will infect you and then get more money out of you,its all your fault and you must pay even if youve been jabbed twice and contract it here.as for coming in , with all the obvious scams to part u from ur cash anyone but a 1/2 wit can see that for what it is.the same old story ,people are wise to that way back.foreigners arriving by and large are people with businesses here or skin in the game ,family or gfs.why would anyone come from europe?USA is open for just about everything and uk/europe can holiday close to home with zero bizarre nonsense, spain portugal greece are  not putting u in a jail you must pay for and then tagging u and your phone.the self delusion is bizarre what are these guys smoking, powdered thai super ego again!?perhaps he hasnt noticed but most thais did notice the fact the govt wished to buy chinese subs not vaccs with their tax payments and of course theres the 40 billion dollar man over there in bavaria.even the woke brigade in the west are having that brought to their attention,so id give the whole sorry saga a mnth max.by that time more foreign embassies will have to fly in their vaccs and the country will be overwhelmed and a full scale lockdown country wide maybe the reality.a la how manila was 6 mnths ago. give us a break from the daily drivel emanating from prayut ville.its losing its entertainment value and becoming increasingly irritating.

[dave moir]

23 hours ago, Advocatus Diaboli said:

How about scenario #5. Thai airways will Fly out of the Uk. Yes you heard right. Prey tell what’s wrong with that, oh it’s now a High Risk country, as of 1 July.

 

WEBFACT, maybe that is a new topic to post in ASEAN, as it looks like your the only one posting new topics. A good one would be UK people now high risk coming in through Phuket Sandbox.

High risk low risk it's not going away any time soon! Those in control have the bit firmly between their teeth!!!????

[Forza2002]

What is the date for day 1 (when did the clock start) of the Fantasy 120 days to open? Or is it Thai style, a moving target so nobody knows the 120 day end date....

Edited July 4, 2021 by Forza2002