Baht could sink even further, analyst warns

[mickyr55]

8 hours ago, placeholder said:

Is the fact that petrol prices are rising in the UK the fault of the baht, also? Petrol prices are rising worldwide. This has nothing to do with the baht per se. As for food prices rising faster than the baht is falling, you have some evidence to support that? And cherry-picking certain food items is no way to go about it.

The petrol prices are in Thailand which is the country for the Bhatt I suggest that you read my post a little more carefully not once did I mention UK petrol prices and I am not cherry picking on the prices in Makro I regularly shop there and prices in ALL departments are rising. 

[MrJ2U]

14 hours ago, Zack61 said:

As much as I'd like to see the slide continue I acknowledge that the THB has remained somewhat immune and resilient to similar predictions and forecasts over the past 5 years and I don't see this trend as a sure bet. The dice don't always fall as we hope and I'll not be counting on it and only believe it when it happens. .

So true.

 

One thing you can count on is the Thai bahts volitility.  

[Jiggo]

16 hours ago, tonray said:

Prices likely only to rise on imported goods. Anything made in Thailand should not be affected much, especially in a struggling economy with waning demand.

Prices on imported items, mainly food did not decrease as the baht value increased in the past...so whats new.  

[skorp13]

The Thai baht has been way too strong for way too long. With international tourism almost nil less baht is being bought. I.E. less demand and more supply. Great for expats on exchange however i feel an inflation bubble on the way as a result

[Scott]

Off-topic post reported and removed.

 

[Bangkocker]

20 hours ago, Orinoco said:

Yes please. 

 

Fall baby fall, bust you teeth and all will be cheering. Listen here Baht - you have been to co**sure for far too long - it's time for you to fall,fall,fall.

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, mickyr55 said:

The petrol prices are in Thailand which is the country for the Bhatt I suggest that you read my post a little more carefully not once did I mention UK petrol prices and I am not cherry picking on the prices in Makro I regularly shop there and prices in ALL departments are rising. 

The thing is, thaugh, is just because the baht is declining in value relative to other foreign currencies, that doesn't mean that the decline in purchase power is due mostly to that decline. Lost of other factors affect prices. For instance, there's a huge shortage of chips worldwide that's driving up the prices of anything that needs chips. That includes electronic devices and automobiles. Or take food prices. Below are 2 charts. One chronicles the value of the baht in relation to the dollar. The other chronicles food price inflation. You'll note that when the baht was strongest, food price inflation was highest.

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/food-inflation

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/currency

[smedly]

4 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Is the pound back to its level v the euro prior to the referendum?

Yes or no.

Is the pound back to its level v the dollar prior to the referendum?

Yes or no.

As for the strengthening baht. Is the pound back to pre brexit levels?

Yes or no.

 

 

you do realise that currencies move around - that is quite normal 

 

it seems to be a challenging concept for you to understand

[cdemundo]

22 hours ago, nightfox said:

Don't need to be no analyst to see this was coming...

Yeah, but the THB held out for a long time, I thought it would never budge.

 

[scubascuba3]

8 hours ago, Falang in Thailand said:

Thailand has over 240 billion usd in Foreign exchange reserves  which it can use  gradually in small amounts  to stimulate the economy , back in 1997 it had only 25 billion USD  so couldnt interfere in the market which led to the Thai Baht depreciate to 50 baht   , i am not saying in the short term  Baht will not depreciate further maybe 34 to max 35 , however dont bet on a huge depreciation .

You can't buck the market, Margaret Thatcher knew that, also when UK came out of the ERM

[lodstewart]

all this talk of inflation wiping out any gains , its only true if you buy the inflated goods, but in the real world of a pensioner

living out in the village with his Thai wife, growing some veg , keeping a few chickens and Ducks being almost self sufficient.

has to pay his utilities and buy some rice and meat ,  but owns the little house with a patch of land , this weakening of the baht is great , cash is king .

he and his good Lady will be delighted. long and far may it fall . may God and Buddha look after us all

[placeholder]

28 minutes ago, lodstewart said:

all this talk of inflation wiping out any gains , its only true if you buy the inflated goods, but in the real world of a pensioner

living out in the village with his Thai wife, growing some veg , keeping a few chickens and Ducks being almost self sufficient.

has to pay his utilities and buy some rice and meat ,  but owns the little house with a patch of land , this weakening of the baht is great , cash is king .

he and his good Lady will be delighted. long and far may it fall . may God and Buddha look after us all

I don't see why they would be delighted. They may be affected less than most, but they still are affected.

[Advocate]

Brits on pensions are dreaming of a false dawn of the decline of the Baht. They will wake up eventually as the tired old British Peso gets battered by Brexit realities.

 

The current decrease in the value of the Baht is temporary and could be arrested extremely quickly by a huge rise in exports.

 

Both balance of trade and balance of payments are strongly positive and increasing. Thailand has been under pressure from the US for several years for currency manipulation in not allowing the Baht to rise to reflect the strength of Thailand's financial position.

 

Exports are surging.

 

"Exports from Thailand jumped 43.82 percent year-on-year to USD 23.70 billion in June 2021, beating above market expectations of a 38.98 percent growth and after a 41.59 percent gain a month earlier."

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

Quote

Exports from Thailand jumped 43.82 percent year-on-year to USD 23.70 billion in June 2021, beating above market expectations of a 38.98 percent growth and after a 41.59 percent gain a month earlier. This was the fastest rise in outbound shipments in eleven years, amid strengthening foreign demand in the wake of coronavirus infections. Sales of vehicle and auto parts jumped 78.5% yoy, while those of computers and parts gained 21.6%. Exports rose to the US (41%), China (42%), Japan (32%), and the EU (47%). In the first half of the year, shipments grew by 15.53% from the same period of 2020.

 

[jacko45k]

21 hours ago, jesimps said:

In the 14 years I've lived here I've never noticed the prices go down.

Not vehicles maybe? Some goods that previously were imported and were now manufactured here may have a reduced taxation level. Fuel sometimes went down too. 

[gk10012001]

10 hours ago, david555 said:

Until the moment some Thai bright light says ...." let's compensate and make the 800K in bank 1000 000 or 1.200 000 baht ret. ext. deposit and its compensated....

 and so finish with the temporary fun ????

I don't know about that.  My first trip was in 2004 when the exchange was 40 baht to 1 USD.  At that time the retirement values were the same, 800k baht on deposit or 65,000 baht monthly.  Of course somebody may create some sort of inflation argument and then change things.  Not much we can do about it but wait and see.

 

[metisdead]

Some more off topic posts and replies about Brexit have been removed.

[mikebell]

22 hours ago, Rookiescot said:

Did you pay your NI contributions?

I was a teacher; NI + Superannuation were stopped at source monthly.  I even had many monthsworth of NI stamps from four years work  during my student holidays.

[mikebell]

22 hours ago, Neeranam said:

Strange, my forecast says720 pounds a month and I worked in the UK for only 4 years.

I can't explain how you get such a large amount for such a short time working.  I am 78 so my 39 years of contributions date from the early sixties. Maybe things have changed for the better or someone has made a mistake? Why did you only work 4 years in UK?  Did you work elsewhere that counts towards a UK pension?

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, mikebell said:

I can't explain how you get such a large amount for such a short time working.  I am 78 so my 39 years of contributions date from the early sixties. Maybe things have changed for the better or someone has made a mistake? Why did you only work 4 years in UK?  Did you work elsewhere that counts towards a UK pension?

You get credit for years as a student, time on benefits, and can make up for missed years by paying directly for up to 6 years (I think), in arrears. My first job in the Middle East was with a UK based company and they paid my stamps for the first 6 months. The disadvantage is you have to  have a fully paid year of stamps, for it to be a qualifying year. 

[mikebell]

2 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

You get credit for years as a student, time on benefits, and can make up for missed years by paying directly for up to 6 years (I think), in arrears. My first job in the Middle East was with a UK based company and they paid my stamps for the first 6 months. The disadvantage is you have to  have a fully paid year of stamps, for it to be a qualifying year. 

So I get credited for four years at two Universities + 39 years as a teacher contributing NI, my return is 350 quid a month!

[Rookiescot]

21 minutes ago, mikebell said:

I was a teacher; NI + Superannuation were stopped at source monthly.  I even had many monthsworth of NI stamps from four years work  during my student holidays.

It will be of little consolation but I and I think almost everyone else on here thinks it is absolutely disgraceful the way British pensioners are treated here in Thailand by the UK government.

[bert bloggs]

20 minutes ago, Rookiescot said:

It will be of little consolation but I and I think almost everyone else on here thinks it is absolutely disgraceful the way British pensioners are treated here in Thailand by the UK government.

I wonder how many live in Thailand????????

[cdemundo]

Having analyzed the insights presented in the discussion above I have concluded...

the Baht may fall in the future or

the Baht may rise in the future.

I stand by my predictions.

[hottrader77]

On 8/5/2021 at 5:03 AM, RichardColeman said:

Finding it hard to think of a good reason as to why this is not a bad thing

They are expecting the UK pound to thai baht will go to 49 thai baht to uk pound by end of 2021 and even further thai baht down next year 2022 could get to 60 thai baht to uk pound about time too.

[spidermike007]

These analysts are pathetic. Who are they anyway? Of course the baht will fall further. They need high paid people to tell them that? 

 

Nearly everything that is coming from these bank analysts is looking more and more inaccurate, more like guesswork, and less like professional, good quality forecasting every day. Of course the baht will fall more. Nothing will be normal next year, or the year after. Thailand is now heading towards an economic catastrophe that will make 1997 look mild. And it will last a half decade or longer. There is a high chance of a major depression here, and nobody knows how high unemployment is, if you take into account the cash economy. 40%? More? And the goons who are saying the economy will only grow by 1% this year are lost in space. Contract by 8% maybe. And then you have the "exports are way up" crowd chiming in. Alot of fake news out there, no doubt alot of it is administration supported subterfuge, disinformation, and just plain lies. 

 

And when you consider that tourism made up a full 20% of the economy, or 110,000,000,000,000 baht that is alot of cash that is gone, baby gone, and not returning anytime soon. I do not think it will ever return. I predict after 5 years, the tourism industry will be 15% of what it was before, or 5 million arrivals, at most. Too much sabotage. Too much punishment. Too much destruction. Too little support. Too long a shutdown. 

Edited August 6, 2021 by spidermike007

[placeholder]

48 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

And when you consider that tourism made up a full 20% of the economy, or 110,000,000,000,000 baht that is alot of cash that is gone, baby gone, and not returning anytime soon. I do not think it will ever return. I predict after 5 years, the tourism industry will be 15% of what it was before, or 5 million arrivals, at most. Too much sabotage. Too much punishment. Too much destruction. Too little support. Too long a shutdown. 

First off, you might want to check that 110 trillion baht figure.  And why wouldn't tourism come back? Have the beaches disappeared? Have the mountains and forests evaporated? Is the scenery gone? Has the art and architecture disappeared? Has the all the cuisine turned into hamburgers? Lots of denunciations and extravagant claims in your post but precious little reasoning.

[spidermike007]

26 minutes ago, placeholder said:

First off, you might want to check that 110 trillion baht figure.  And why wouldn't tourism come back? Have the beaches disappeared? Have the mountains and forests evaporated? Is the scenery gone? Has the art and architecture disappeared? Has the all the cuisine turned into hamburgers? Lots of denunciations and extravagant claims in your post but precious little reasoning.

As I have stated before, to summarize:

 

There are countless things the government could be doing, if they wanted to attract the high quality tourists. First they need to figure out a way to attract tourism, WITHOUT quarantine. That is fairly simple. A very reliable lab based test in the home nation, with test results before you board the plane. Then a simple antigen test at the airport. It takes 15 minutes for results. Sure, Thailand would have to invest in the test kits. Some general would have to be willing to part with a few million dollars. Each test itself, only cost $5 with the new Abbott test, which is available now. And accepting only tourists who have been double vaccinated at home, with good vaccines. So far, there have been a minimal number of sandbox tourists who have been found infected. It is mostly Thai transmission, everyone needs to worry about here. 

Then they could get on to reform. Sacrifices need to be made. I do not hear ANY discussion about what sacrifices Thailand is willing to make, to get the tourists, and that multi trillion baht cash cow back. The very first thing would be to repeal the anti foreign wine bill, that was passed by a few very corrupt senators way back when, to protect an anemic local wine industry. They are losing billions of dollars a year in revenue, that would be had from a 100% wine duty, instead of 365%. The five star hotels would have major wine events, and the entire industry would flourish here.

Thailand keeps droning on and on and on, about how they want wealthy tourists. Again, what sacrifices are you willing to make? Rich tourists like to spend money when they travel. And they cannot do that here, as they do not like getting taken for a ride. Most wealthy people are smart with their money. Thailand could be making a fortune on a 25% luxury tax, instead of the 100% of more, which discourages most people from buying. How many people do you see in the luxury stores here? They are almost always completely empty. Inane. Beyond inane.

 

And talk to us about the sacrifices you fools are willing to make, to get tourism back. It is not magic. You will not open your doors and have millions pouring in again. Get that? When you kick an animal that is already ill enough times, it eventually dies. Your industry is dying. You have sabotaged it to no end. And this started long before Covid, so stop with the excuses. Real men take responsibility for their mistakes. Punks, juveniles, and men with undeveloped emotional natures refuse to take responsibility for anything, and it makes them look like more of a fool.

 

If a tourist wanted to venture to an island destination, they are all devastated by this shutdown. Was recently in Samui. 85% of the hotels were closed. Most restaurants, alot of bars, shops and other businesses were closed many permanently. Granted, there are some great hotel bargains right now. But, that environment is fairly depressing, seeing so much hardship. So, the lame authorities here need to wrap their minds around that. Tourists would be coming to a hugely diminished destination. Free quarantine? Might be a good place to start. Make some sacrifices, you incompetents. These issues and problems were becoming apparent long before Covid. And none were being addressed. That is part of my point. Tourism had been declining for years already. The numbers were up. But the quality of tourist was way down. And according to everyone I spoke to last year, the year before and the year before that, income was way, way down. So, "this blame it all on Covid scenario" is somewhat disengenuous. Sure, Covid is huge. And the drop now is stunning. But, my point is there were plenty of issues prior to Covid. And are any of them being addressed? Quantity over quality is never a good thing, unless you are selling one dollar items at a swap meet. It just lowers the quality of the experience for all.
 

[ivor bigun]

just watching Bloomberg ,even they are warning that covid is spreading in Thailand and very little covid jabs available .

[spidermike007]

55 minutes ago, placeholder said:

First off, you might want to check that 110 trillion baht figure.  And why wouldn't tourism come back? Have the beaches disappeared? Have the mountains and forests evaporated? Is the scenery gone? Has the art and architecture disappeared? Has the all the cuisine turned into hamburgers? Lots of denunciations and extravagant claims in your post but precious little reasoning.

That figure is wrong. Sorry. I meant $110 billion. Or three trillion baht. Was a typo. 

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

These analysts are pathetic. Who are they anyway? Of course the baht will fall further. They need high paid people to tell them that? 

 

Nearly everything that is coming from these bank analysts is looking more and more inaccurate, more like guesswork, and less like professional, good quality forecasting every day. Of course the baht will fall more. Nothing will be normal next year, or the year after. Thailand is now heading towards an economic catastrophe that will make 1997 look mild. And it will last a half decade or longer. There is a high chance of a major depression here, and nobody knows how high unemployment is, if you take into account the cash economy. 40%? More? And the goons who are saying the economy will only grow by 1% this year are lost in space. Contract by 8% maybe. And then you have the "exports are way up" crowd chiming in. Alot of fake news out there, no doubt alot of it is administration supported subterfuge, disinformation, and just plain lies. 

 

And when you consider that tourism made up a full 20% of the economy, or 110,000,000,000,000 baht that is alot of cash that is gone, baby gone, and not returning anytime soon. I do not think it will ever return. I predict after 5 years, the tourism industry will be 15% of what it was before, or 5 million arrivals, at most. Too much sabotage. Too much punishment. Too much destruction. Too little support. Too long a shutdown. 

My mistake. Meant 3 trillion baht, or $110 billion in tourism revenue lost.