Dr Yong: More vaccine needed as herd immunity increases to 85% requirement

[webfact]

Picture: Sanook

 

Top Chulalongkorn University virologist Dr Yong Poovorawan has said that achieving herd immunity needs a higher number of vaccinations for the Delta variant.

 

He said that 85% of the Thai public need to be inoculated compared to previous assessments that 70% would be sufficient for the "Wuhan" strain. 

 

Commenting on his personal Facebook page he said that 100 million doses for 50 million people were needed for Wuhan Covid, now that figure was higher.

 

He called on the Thai population to get vaccinated to achieve this saying things would only improve - and deaths go down - if herd immunity was achieved. 

 

Herein lies the problem that was not touched upon by Sanook in their story about Dr Yong's comments.

 

ASEAN NOW reported today the latest vaccination figures for Thailand as being just short of 16 million for a first dose and 4.7 million for two doses. 

 

These equate to just 22.17% of the population and 6.55% respectively.

 

Thailand's vaccine rollout has been widely criticized with claims coming from an opposition party that the government is going to introduce an Amnesty Bill to protect those who have made poor decisions. 

 

Dr Yong made no comment about the current situation in Thailand.

 

Just that the Delta and other more infectious variants had moved the goalposts and created more pressing needs for vaccine especially as some countries were giving booster third doses.

 

This is also happening in Thailand especially with front line medical personnel, notes ASEAN NOW. 

 

-- © Copyright  ASEAN NOW 2021-08-09

 

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[mtls2005]

85% is a bridge too far.

 

Not realistic to think we can get there.

 

70% was a stretch, and required maximum effort, and a singular focus. Right now, 70% is looking like June 30, 2022.

 

85%? Nope.

 

 

[RotBenz8888]

8 minutes ago, webfact said:

He called on the Thai population to get vaccinated

I suggest you call Anutin. Yes I know, probably a waste of time. 

 

[Dogmatix]

He has said something sensible for once, although others are saying 90% is necessary for delta.  Since Thailand has been polled as having the one of the highets vaccine hesitancy rates in Asia at about 30%, it might be hard to reach that, even if the government is willing to pay for it.  But vaccine hesitancy at the moment is only a rich country problem.

[internationalism]

as a scientist, how he could not known, the a similar pandemic (spanish flu) lasted many years with coming many waves.

If he advised that to the government a year ago, to prepare a fast executed vaccination program, things would be different now.

The UEA started to vaccinating medics already in September.

Mass programs rolled around the world from December, with many countries aiming (and already achieving) 100% vaccine cover.

Thailand is half year behind and this gap is growing, as goalposts are changing 

[Bluespunk]

Herd immunity, the goal that may never be achieved. 
 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00728-2

 

Not impossible of course but by no means as easy as those who preach the “let nature take its course” credo would have us believe. 

Edited August 9, 2021 by Bluespunk
Anticipating arguments and misunderstandings

[sammieuk1]

Dr google has been busy again suggesting more people need to get vaccine in their arms in greater numbers I'm no expert but I see a flaw with this plan that he hasn't spotted ????

[bkk6060]

Wow, that could take a year add booster shots and more variants.  Plus, how many anti-vaxers are there here possibly more then 15%?

Edited August 9, 2021 by bkk6060

[Karma80]

Stop giving us Sinovac? Be a good start.

[Venom]

1 hour ago, Karma80 said:

Stop giving us Sinovac? Be a good start.

Hopefully the new mRNA vaccines will have no long term side effects as reportedly they have higher efficacy. However, no idea if they will be effective against Lambda variant. 

[Jimbo2014]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that 85% of the Thai public need to be inoculated compared to previous assessments that 70% would be sufficient for the "Wuhan" strain

Well four months in and we have 6.5% vaccinated.  Extrapolating that and being generous - we may approach herd immunity sometime around 2024.  Fun times indeed! 

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

I suggest you call Anutin. Yes I know, probably a waste of time. 

 

It will not be a waste of Anutin,s time, as he explained just the other Day, he spends all his time ensuring the people,s welfare and obtaining Vaccines.

[Cake Monster]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Just that the Delta and other more infectious variants had moved the goalposts and created more pressing needs for vaccine especially as some countries were giving booster third doses.

And Thailand is trying to rely upon a single dose of Sinosoup for Immunity

Good luck with that.

[Emdog]

3 hours ago, Dogmatix said:

He has said something sensible for once, although others are saying 90% is necessary for delta.  Since Thailand has been polled as having the one of the highets vaccine hesitancy rates in Asia at about 30%, it might be hard to reach that, even if the government is willing to pay for it.  But vaccine hesitancy at the moment is only a rich country problem.

My take on "vaccine hesitancy" here is more about which vaccine. They simply don't want the Chinese product

[newnative]

Luckily, we're 'well on the way' to 70% vaccinated, according to Anutin.  

[mrfill]

Some pretty dodgy figures being promoted here.

1 - Population.

Worldometers estimates this at 69.993m, the Thai Board of Investment says 66.19m (2020). However, both percentage figures quoted work it out to be  71.7m (4.7m/6.55% and 16m/22.17%). Nearly 2m discrepancy using the more generous figure.

 

2 - Vaccination rate

BoI states that 16.2% of the population is under 14 (below vaccination age) which leaves a maximum of 83.8% to get vaccines. 

 

Bit tricky to meet the 85% requirement when you only have 83.8% to work on..

 

 

[poskat]

ahh, another proclamation from dr. obvious...

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that 85% of the Thai public need to be inoculated compared to previous assessments that 70% would be sufficient for the "Wuhan" strain. 

Just push for 100% and stop all the BS

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that 85% of the Thai public need to be inoculated

don't tell it to us, tell that to the Czar and to Anutin (hoping they will listen... good luck then )

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

He called on the Thai population to get vaccinated to achieve this

in order for people to get vaccinated there need to be available (good) vaccines, not the Chinese rubbish one.... as it appears there's no availability.... keep trying and while at it feel free to drop a line at Anutin (maybe he will listen  555 )

[GreasyFingers]

42 minutes ago, Emdog said:

My take on "vaccine hesitancy" here is more about which vaccine. They simply don't want the Chinese product

Do not know in your community but around a thousand a day have been accepting it at our Amphur.

[overt2016]

31 minutes ago, newnative said:

Luckily, we're 'well on the way' to 70% vaccinated, according to Anutin.  

Don't forges the 10 million doses to be jabbed this month!!

[GreasyFingers]

1 hour ago, Venom said:

Hopefully the new mRNA vaccines will have no long term side effects as reportedly they have higher efficacy. However, no idea if they will be effective against Lambda variant. 

You phrased that correctly: "Hopefully the new mRNA vaccines will have no long term side effects". There is some evidence for this.

[Almer]

  Sinovac , will it achieve herd immunity?

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

He said that 85% of the Thai public need to be inoculated compared to previous assessments that 70% would be sufficient for the "Wuhan" strain. 

 

Ooopppsssss!!!!

 

BTW, has anyone else noticed lately, when the government types start talking about that original idea of a 70% vaccinations rate, lately they seem to be talking about a 1 shot portion as opposed to the original 2 shot/full vaccination notion.

 

Lately, they were talking about the vaccination rate for Bangkok supposedly reaching about 70%, but that was the ONE shot portion, not the two shot portion being far less, somewhere in the mid teens as of the last public report I saw toward the end of July.

 

Wait till the end of the year, and let's see what vaccination rate figure the government will be talking about then. I betcha it won't be the two-shot, full vaccination rate.

 

[mfd101]

6 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

85% is a bridge too far.

 

Not realistic to think we can get there.

 

70% was a stretch, and required maximum effort, and a singular focus. Right now, 70% is looking like June 30, 2022.

 

85%? Nope.

 

 

Well yes, of course, if you're defeated before you even begin ...

[CharlieH]

Post with derogatory term for vaccine, removed.

[khunPer]

85 percent is the same they now talk about in Europe, as the vaccines don't give 100% immunity. And as it's 85 percent of the total population, children down to 12 year needs is included, i.e. almost 100 percent of everybody that are 12 years and older needs to be vaccinated.

[MrJ2U]

This spokesperson has got to go.

 

His bul**<deleted> makes me wanna puke.

[dennnis]

7 hours ago, Karma80 said:

Stop giving us Sinovac? Be a good start.

Pfizer is any better? Read the news from Israel.