Prominent Thai doctor says lockdown measures aren’t working, tighter ones won’t work either, ease them to save the economy and consider an export ban on Covid19 vaccines and greatly boost vaccination program

[Bluespunk]

1 hour ago, nkg said:

 

Ending lockdowns won't ease infection rates. It wouldn't have much of an effect either way. It might help alleviate hunger and poverty amongst the poorest of Thailand, though.

 

 

 

https://www.ucanews.com/news/hunger-rife-among-thai-poor-as-covid-19-batters-economy/89639#

 

 

So we agree, ending lockdowns won’t ease infection rates.
 

However have to disagree it won’t have much of an effect, I believe they would increase to the point that health services can’t cope. 

[Bluespunk]

34 minutes ago, Sundown said:

Easy, stop testing.

Hmm, that will hide the infection rates but won’t ease growth. 

[sead]

So there are finally some normal educated people in Thailand. Replace Anutin with this guy? 

[Anton9]

45 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

This has been discussed multiple times in different thread but relevant to Thailand then these are the figures:

 

Sweden, population 10 million. Deaths per million from covid = 1,438

Thailand, population 70 million. Deaths per million from covid = 102

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

How many people are having their life destroyed by the lockdowns and overraction to this crisis in Thailand?

Covid related deaths are not the only factor to evaluate a country response.

Otherwise you can just lock people in their house forever, maybe you will get zero covid deaths that way.

Sweden has a much older population than Thailand and most deaths are elderly people.

Also,Thailand just started to experience the worst of the pandemic so the death count will keep rising.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Anton9

[bkkcanuck8]

23 minutes ago, Anton9 said:

How many people are having their life destroyed by the lockdowns and overraction to this crisis in Thailand?

Covid related deaths are not the only factor to evaluate a country response.

Otherwise you can just lock people in their house forever, maybe you will get zero covid deaths that way.

Sweden has a much older population than Thailand and most deaths are elderly people.

Also,Thailand just started to experience the worst of the pandemic so the death count will keep rising.

Tourists would STILL not be here in any numbers... which has a knock on effect in other industries.

The hardest hit sectors are:

• Financial industry (many that are related to tourism industry that may have loans against homes or businesses are distressed loans). It is also dependent on the construction industry which is dependent on tourists (long or short-term).
• Real Estate and Construction would still be impacted from lack of demand and more distressed loans
• Entertainment in areas dependent on tourism would still be effected
• Hotels would still be mostly empty

Those are the primary industries impacted.  

 

Air routes worldwide have been slashed and those flights that are flying are flying with more empty seats even after the routes have been slashed.

 

 

[ftpjtm]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

But not much to do with getting hold of vaccines immediately, which is what the doctor is calling for.

Could it be that the doctor is implying that had the government signed off on that requisition half a year ago, the vaccinations would have started months ago?

 

 

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, ftpjtm said:

Could it be that the doctor is implying that had the government signed off on that requisition half a year ago, the vaccinations would have started months ago?

 

 

Well, I didn't read what he wrote in Thai. But the English seems clear enough.

[Bkktodd]

23 hours ago, DrJack54 said:

Another chap looking for popular headline.

Utter fool.

That chap might save your life if you had a heart attack. Show respect. He is not a construction worker turned minister head

[steven100]

7 hours ago, clivebaxter said:

Surely you don't include your great leader in disbelieving any Thai? He said it will mostly be over in another 2 weeks at most ????

Lol ......  please show me where he said it will be over in 2 weeks,    or are you just making it up  ...  ????     maybe you dreamt it ....

[Jeffr2]

https://thethaiger.com/news/national/40000-cases-a-day-could-happen-by-september-says-projection

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Anton9 said:

How many people are having their life destroyed by the lockdowns and overraction to this crisis in Thailand?

Covid related deaths are not the only factor to evaluate a country response.

Otherwise you can just lock people in their house forever, maybe you will get zero covid deaths that way.

Sweden has a much older population than Thailand and most deaths are elderly people.

Also,Thailand just started to experience the worst of the pandemic so the death count will keep rising.

So this is ok with you to hold Sweden up as a role model?

 

Sweden, population 10 million. Deaths per million from covid = 1,438

Thailand, population 70 million. Deaths per million from covid = 102

 

It would mean Thailand having over an extra 100,000+/- covid deaths.

 

How many people are having their lives destroyed by the virus is more the question but I'll let you dwell on that, it seems opening up is your only solution. 

 

Try to come up with a plan on how the hospitals will cope, the ICU triage, the fact that the health system will collapse, imagine a health system far worse than it is already in Bangkok and replicate that to all provinces.

 

Not sure any country in the world would have a stomach for that apart from you.

 

I've taken note that its only your opinion, thankfully all experts do not share it and so this will never happen despite your wishes.

Edited August 13, 2021 by Bkk Brian

[brewsterbudgen]

27 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So this is ok with you to hold Sweden up as a role model?

 

Sweden, population 10 million. Deaths per million from covid = 1,438

Thailand, population 70 million. Deaths per million from covid = 102

 

It would mean Thailand having over an extra 100,000+/- covid deaths.

 

How many people are having their lives destroyed by the virus is more the question but I'll let you dwell on that, it seems opening up is your only solution. 

 

Try to come up with a plan on how the hospitals will cope, the ICU triage, the fact that the health system will collapse, imagine a health system far worse than it is already in Bangkok and replicate that to all provinces.

 

Not sure any country in the world would have a stomach for that apart from you.

 

I've taken note that its only your opinion, thankfully all experts do not share it and so this will never happen despite your wishes.

When comparing the Covid deaths per million in Sweden with a lot of other European countries it ranks much better, and without the economic hardships experienced by the countries that locked down heavily.  I'm not suggesting Thailand should take the same approach (too late for that now anyway), but in time I wonder if it will be used as a model for future pandemics.  

[Deli]

23 hours ago, steven100 said:

I wouldn't believe an ounce of words or information from any Thai about COVID19 .......

They all talk the same BS ,  they haven't got a clue.

Thais couldn't sell water in Ethiopia .....  

Seems to be that today you are sober

[DrJack54]

8 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

  I'm not suggesting Thailand should take the same approach (too late for that now anyway).......

So what exactly would you suggest for Thailand regarding restrictions etc.

[Bkk Brian]

3 minutes ago, brewsterbudgen said:

When comparing the Covid deaths per million in Sweden with a lot of other European countries it ranks much better, and without the economic hardships experienced by the countries that locked down heavily.  I'm not suggesting Thailand should take the same approach (too late for that now anyway), but in time I wonder if it will be used as a model for future pandemics.  

The poster I replied to was using the model for Thailand, I'm simply pointing out facts that doing so means you would have to accept the burden of at least 100k extra deaths and a collapsed health system, not to mention all the other severe consequences.

 

Sweden used as a model for future pandemics, not according to its Prime Minister who said it was a big mistake.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[malthebluff]

4 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

That is an argument for vaccination not ending lockdowns. 
 

Herd immunity in the short or even medium term is unlikely, we are probably going to need vaccinations for a longtime to come yet. 

It is a fact that work places restaurants bars  factorys and every place you can think of or name have a protocol in place to stop the spread of covid mask alcohol are all there ready and waiting where by the homes of people who are struggling with job and business loses have no such protocol and having lots if people in a small space is just crazy hence the prisons. So please explain to me why you think the lockdowns are a good idea

[brewsterbudgen]

32 minutes ago, DrJack54 said:

So what exactly would you suggest for Thailand regarding restrictions etc.

Fortunately it's not up to me. I hope they start getting relaxed soon, but it seems unlikely to happen. I can't see them being tightened, so I guess we'll be continuing like this for a while.

[Bluespunk]

6 minutes ago, malthebluff said:

It is a fact that work places restaurants bars  factorys and every place you can think of or name have a protocol in place to stop the spread of covid mask alcohol are all there ready and waiting where by the homes of people who are struggling with job and business loses have no such protocol and having lots if people in a small space is just crazy hence the prisons. So please explain to me why you think the lockdowns are a good idea

They had all those things before the numbers began to rise prompting lockdown. Yet the numbers rose to record levels. 
 

However that was not my point;  I asked how ending lockdown in the midst of record rising numbers would ease infection rates. 

 

 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Bluespunk

[malthebluff]

12 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

They had all those things before the numbers began to rise prompting lockdown. Yet the numbers rose to record levels. 
 

However that was not my point;  I asked how ending lockdown in the midst of record rising numbers would ease infection rates. 

 

 

Look at other countries take the uk around 90% vaccinated all shops and businesses open and as much back to normal but covid going up around 8% a day. This is something we cant stop and never will and we will have to just get on with it like we did with the Spanish flu its  never gone away we just get the flu jab every year and covid will be the same so lockdowns have no value and will not stop or cure covid unfortunately 

[sucit]

Wow. Never thought I’d see the day. Doc is actually making sense. 

[sucit]

3 hours ago, Bluespunk said:

So we agree, ending lockdowns won’t ease infection rates.
 

However have to disagree it won’t have much of an effect, I believe they would increase to the point that health services can’t cope. 

Is that what is happening in the other countries or US states that have lifted lockdowns? 

[sucit]

2 hours ago, bkkcanuck8 said:

Tourists would STILL not be here in any numbers... which has a knock on effect in other industries.

The hardest hit sectors are:

• Financial industry (many that are related to tourism industry that may have loans against homes or businesses are distressed loans). It is also dependent on the construction industry which is dependent on tourists (long or short-term).
• Real Estate and Construction would still be impacted from lack of demand and more distressed loans
• Entertainment in areas dependent on tourism would still be effected
• Hotels would still be mostly empty

Those are the primary industries impacted.  

 

Air routes worldwide have been slashed and those flights that are flying are flying with more empty seats even after the routes have been slashed.

 

 

Bro, malls are closed. People are not allowed to work. They have families. Your point about tourists not returning immediately is noted but it is moot. You can take away jobs from Thais I am not sure what to say if people do not understand this. 

[skippybangkok]

I been saying this since April... its clear Thailand was good at controlling Covid previously, but Delta is a new animal 

[sucit]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

So this is ok with you to hold Sweden up as a role model?

 

Sweden, population 10 million. Deaths per million from covid = 1,438

Thailand, population 70 million. Deaths per million from covid = 102

 

It would mean Thailand having over an extra 100,000+/- covid deaths.

 

How many people are having their lives destroyed by the virus is more the question but I'll let you dwell on that, it seems opening up is your only solution. 

 

Try to come up with a plan on how the hospitals will cope, the ICU triage, the fact that the health system will collapse, imagine a health system far worse than it is already in Bangkok and replicate that to all provinces.

 

Not sure any country in the world would have a stomach for that apart from you.

 

I've taken note that its only your opinion, thankfully all experts do not share it and so this will never happen despite your wishes.

Sweden has 0 deaths per day and basically looks to have covid in the rear view mirror. They never locked down, people never lost jobs or died from increased substance abuse, domestic abuse, depression…

 

Whatever you are smoking is good. Again, they are out of it, AND they didn’t lock down. 

[bkkcanuck8]

6 minutes ago, sucit said:

Bro, malls are closed. People are not allowed to work. They have families. Your point about tourists not returning immediately is noted but it is moot. You can take away jobs from Thais I am not sure what to say if people do not understand this. 

I am not a big fan of closing malls or small shops, just enforcing strict mask wearing and distancing - along with regular testing of staff.   I am a fan of comprehensive testing/tracing/tracking... and more granular lock-downs when clusters are identified.  City-wide lock-downs should be a fallback when you fail in the areas of testing/tracing/tracking and more granular lock-downs.  Unfortunately I think they replicate other countries without taking into account where other countries fail (mostly in the area of tracing/tracking).

Edited August 13, 2021 by bkkcanuck8

[Bkk Brian]

2 minutes ago, sucit said:

Sweden has 0 deaths per day and basically looks to have covid in the rear view mirror. They never locked down, people never lost jobs or died from increased substance abuse, domestic abuse, depression…

 

Whatever you are smoking is good. Again, they are out of it, AND they didn’t lock down. 

They had 14,621 deaths out of a population of just 10 million, now out of it yes and have 65% of their population vaccinated but I was not the one that brought them up ask the original poster who did what he was smoking.... before attempting to ridicule

[Bluespunk]

20 minutes ago, malthebluff said:

Look at other countries take the uk around 90% vaccinated all shops and businesses open and as much back to normal but covid going up around 8% a day. This is something we cant stop and never will and we will have to just get on with it like we did with the Spanish flu its  never gone away we just get the flu jab every year and covid will be the same so lockdowns have no value and will not stop or cure covid unfortunately 

U.K. went through several lockdowns and did not end till infection rates dropped.
 

Vaccination rates are now such that health services are not being overwhelmed. Govt as far as I know has not ruled out further lockdowns if this situation changes, though I can’t see that happening. 
 

Covid-19 is not flu of any sort. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Bluespunk

[WingFat]

On 8/12/2021 at 7:11 AM, placeholder said:

I agree with that absolutelty and unreservedly. But the doctor said they need vaccines now. Where will they come from? Sinovac and Sinopharm are the only ones that may be available in large quantities immediately. And it's not yet known how effective they are at dealing with the Delta variant.

Here is some very recent studies concerning which vaccine is the best for handling not only the original virus, but the Delta variant as well. I just can't fathom why the Thai gov't isn't pulling out all the stops and buy as much Moderna as possible to meet the need.

Mayo Clinic: Covid breakthrough risk may be much lower with Moderna vaccine than Pfizer (cnbc.com)

[Bluespunk]

23 minutes ago, sucit said:

Is that what is happening in the other countries or US states that have lifted lockdowns? 

Lift lockdowns when infection rates drop to a rate health services can cope with would be the formula I’d follow. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by Bluespunk
Spelling/punctuation

[malthebluff]

13 minutes ago, Bluespunk said:

U.K. went through several lockdowns and did not end till infection rates dropped.
 

Vaccination rates are now such that health services are not being overwhelmed. Govt as far as I know has not ruled out further lockdowns if this situation changes, though I can’t see that happening. 
 

Covid-19 is not flu of any sort. 

I didnt say it was flu not once anywhere so please read slower