new delta variant causing concern in UK

[3NUMBAS]

https://max1063.iheart.com/content/2021-10-19-scientists-warn-new-covid-mutation-is-more-infectious-than-delta-variant/

 

National News

Scientists Warn New COVID Mutation Is More Infectious Than Delta Variant

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By Bill GalluccioOct 19, 2021

Photo: Getty Images

 

Scientists are closely monitoring a new coronavirus mutation that is currently spreading through the United Kingdom. The new variant, named AY.4.2, is a subtype of the Delta variant and could be between 10% and 15% more infectious.

 

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/24/delta-plus-covid-variant-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html

 

delta plus

[tomazbodner]

COVID is a gift that never stops giving...

[3NUMBAS]

theres always a new version around the corner to keep the pot boiling

[3NUMBAS]

uk figures are booming again with deaths and cases up day after day,, as bad as last march,, another lockdown looms in time for xmas

[3NUMBAS]

[3NUMBAS]

[internationalism]

have you spammed forums?

[bkk6060]

Seems the early on vaccinated folks now have waning immunity leaving them less protected.

Now this new variant.  The UK may be in a world of hurt does not look good they should be banned from traveling so they don't spread it.

Edited October 20, 2021 by bkk6060

[Irate priest]

2 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Seems the early on vaccinated folks now have waning immunity leaving them less protected.

Now this new variant.  The UK may be in a world of hurt does not look good.

Not just the UK the rest of the vaccinated world will follow suit..

[Jeffr2]

Get the jab. Anti vaxxers are our biggest problem now.

[DavisH]

17 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Get the jab. Anti vaxxers are our biggest problem now.

A large proportion now are teenage kids getting infected - they generally have low vaccination rates for that cohort. Also their parents make up a significant proportion now. Older persons make up the lowest proportion now. 

[kellyk11]

When the UK announces a new variant other countries respond by putting the UK on their naughty list. It is very annoying!

 

  

4 hours ago, Jeffr2 said:

Get the jab. Anti vaxxers are our biggest problem now.

That can't be true. There are very few people in at risk groups who can have the jab but who haven't had the jab. Covid bounces off young healthy people.

 

Plus there is this study of 68 countries. We are through the worst of it. Time to go back to normal.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

 

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.

[Scott]

5 hours ago, kellyk11 said:

When the UK announces a new variant other countries respond by putting the UK on their naughty list. It is very annoying!

 

  

That can't be true. There are very few people in at risk groups who can have the jab but who haven't had the jab. Covid bounces off young healthy people.

 

Plus there is this study of 68 countries. We are through the worst of it. Time to go back to normal.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

 

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.

I think the conclusions of this study are highly suspect.  I'd wait for a much more detailed look at the data before making much of a conclusion.   For example, of those with high cases, how many were breakthrough cases?   How many of those countries and counties had other mitigating efforts, such as mask mandates?  How many were open and had bars and restaurants open for indoor dining?   Population density is a factor and the weather may contribute to indoor vs outdoor activities.  

 

It should be noted that since children aren't vaccinated and thus they are not a part of the % of people eligible for the vaccine.  

 

[Nojohndoe]

6 hours ago, kellyk11 said:

When the UK announces a new variant other countries respond by putting the UK on their naughty list. It is very annoying!

 

  

That can't be true. There are very few people in at risk groups who can have the jab but who haven't had the jab. Covid bounces off young healthy people.

 

Plus there is this study of 68 countries. We are through the worst of it. Time to go back to normal.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

 

At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days (Fig. 1). In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.

Does the claim Covid-19 bounces off healthy young people hold true or is it that they have a greater capacity to be asymptomatic yet still potentially contagious?

In the case of populations which achieve incrementally high vaccination levels there is and will be a corresponding decrease or relaxation of mitigating precautions and social attitude .

That in turn increases the risk to those not yet vaccinated and re-exposure to those with fading vaccine protection to new variants.

The UK is not alone in being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Medical Science generally advises action contrary to Economic reality.

The only undeniable positive result is a massive  win for "Big Pharma" !

[Denim]

14 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

COVID is a gift that never stops giving...

Yes, we are so indebted to China.  How can we ever thanks them enough and show our appreciation.

[ignis]

Covid AY.4.2, is not just rising in the UK, read it is also raising in Poland, has been detected in Israel  and the USA now have a number of cases

[Rampant Rabbit]

Experts say it is unlikely to take off in a big way or escape current vaccines. BBC UK https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58965650

Edited October 21, 2021 by Rampant Rabbit

[Rampant Rabbit]

14 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

uk figures are booming again with deaths and cases up day after day,, as bad as last march,, another lockdown looms in time for xmas

Due to the fact they are testing all  kids twice a  week at shcools  maybe where other countries arent

[kellyk11]

11 hours ago, Scott said:

I think the conclusions of this study are highly suspect.  I'd wait for a much more detailed look at the data before making much of a conclusion.   For example, of those with high cases, how many were breakthrough cases?   How many of those countries and counties had other mitigating efforts, such as mask mandates?  How many were open and had bars and restaurants open for indoor dining?   Population density is a factor and the weather may contribute to indoor vs outdoor activities.  

 

It should be noted that since children aren't vaccinated and thus they are not a part of the % of people eligible for the vaccine.  

 

It is a study across 68 countries. It should show a MASSIVE drop in Covid cases where there is high vaccination. Vaccination should stop Covid in it's tracks.

 

People only agreed to get vaccinated because they were promised this would be over when we had a high vaccination rate. We will have a civil war in the UK if the government tries to take away people's freedom again. People won't agree to "a few weeks to flatten the curve" because they know it never ends there. People have been patient.

 

If the new normal is going to be regular vaccinations, plus masks, plus tracking of people everywhere, plus a crashed economy, then we have to talk about splitting society. That isn't a life worth living for a lot of us. 

 

9 hours ago, Nojohndoe said:

Does the claim Covid-19 bounces off healthy young people hold true or is it that they have a greater capacity to be asymptomatic yet still potentially contagious?

In the case of populations which achieve incrementally high vaccination levels there is and will be a corresponding decrease or relaxation of mitigating precautions and social attitude .

That in turn increases the risk to those not yet vaccinated and re-exposure to those with fading vaccine protection to new variants.

The UK is not alone in being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Medical Science generally advises action contrary to Economic reality.

The only undeniable positive result is a massive  win for "Big Pharma" !

If someone in your household has Covid there is only a 10% chance you will get it. If we had worried about such marginal risks in the past civilization wouldn't have advanced. We would be on lock down in our caves.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9304877/If-household-COVID-19-theres-1-10-chance-youll-catch-too.html

 

If there are people who want to be protected from very small risks, at the expense of living a full life, we should try to accommodate them while the rest of us can carry on with the old normal.

 

 

[Jeffr2]

31 minutes ago, kellyk11 said:

It is a study across 68 countries. It should show a MASSIVE drop in Covid cases where there is high vaccination. Vaccination should stop Covid in it's tracks.

 

People only agreed to get vaccinated because they were promised this would be over when we had a high vaccination rate. We will have a civil war in the UK if the government tries to take away people's freedom again. People won't agree to "a few weeks to flatten the curve" because they know it never ends there. People have been patient.

 

If the new normal is going to be regular vaccinations, plus masks, plus tracking of people everywhere, plus a crashed economy, then we have to talk about splitting society. That isn't a life worth living for a lot of us. 

 

If someone in your household has Covid there is only a 10% chance you will get it. If we had worried about such marginal risks in the past civilization wouldn't have advanced. We would be on lock down in our caves.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9304877/If-household-COVID-19-theres-1-10-chance-youll-catch-too.html

 

If there are people who want to be protected from very small risks, at the expense of living a full life, we should try to accommodate them while the rest of us can carry on with the old normal.

 

 

Clueless.

[Nojohndoe]

1 hour ago, kellyk11 said:

It is a study across 68 countries. It should show a MASSIVE drop in Covid cases where there is high vaccination. Vaccination should stop Covid in it's tracks.

 

People only agreed to get vaccinated because they were promised this would be over when we had a high vaccination rate. We will have a civil war in the UK if the government tries to take away people's freedom again. People won't agree to "a few weeks to flatten the curve" because they know it never ends there. People have been patient.

 

If the new normal is going to be regular vaccinations, plus masks, plus tracking of people everywhere, plus a crashed economy, then we have to talk about splitting society. That isn't a life worth living for a lot of us. 

 

If someone in your household has Covid there is only a 10% chance you will get it. If we had worried about such marginal risks in the past civilization wouldn't have advanced. We would be on lock down in our caves.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9304877/If-household-COVID-19-theres-1-10-chance-youll-catch-too.html

 

If there are people who want to be protected from very small risks, at the expense of living a full life, we should try to accommodate them while the rest of us can carry on with the old normal.

 

 

There is a problem with your concept in differing realities.

If circumstance were to be cave dwellers is it not likely that even without comprehension of cause that at least the remnants of a cave population would have abandoned a particular cave in realization of that location was somehow depleting viable existence and move as a preservation reaction ?

Leap forward to the current reality of massive populations that are limited in alternatives to current residential placement due to the form and organization of human society and the inherent difficulty in simply moving camp. 

Retreat relatively little in time and comprehend the devastation on human populations by way of the Black Plague , Spanish Influenza etc . Now the ease and speed of global travel by comparison would likely have been catastrophic had it been possible back then and undeniably a factor in the current global pandemic. Even so the reactive response was attempts at isolation , social rejection and the formulation of the term "quarantine".

Taking your example of 1 in 100 at worst case incidence of familial cross infection ignores the extrapolated risk of generating yet another more dangerous variant within society if simply ignored in favor a return to "normal" which does not yet exist (if it ever did  but anyway!). With compliance to practical mitigation practices is the social risk 1 in 100?

A lot of the emphasis on such a return to normality is argued as a "Social Community " concern from an economic position  but is not balanced with countered " Community Risk".

IMHO if there was a genuine concern by the global Haves for the global Have Nots there would have been a release of genetically  modified mosquitoes that in time would decimate the variety that transmits many lethal diseases that annually kills millions. Why has it not ? The argument has been the unknown impact on the environment. Ha! Or is the truth of it that such mosquitoes are,as yet< not an infection problem in wealthy Western countries.

Covid-19 presents differently so the emphasis has a different urgency. Invariably politicoeconomic !

 

 

 

 

[Jeffr2]

2 minutes ago, Nojohndoe said:

There is a problem with your concept in differing realities.

If circumstance were to be cave dwellers is it not likely that even without comprehension of cause that at least the remnants of a cave population would have abandoned a particular cave in realization of that location was somehow depleting viable existence and move as a preservation reaction ?

Leap forward to the current reality of massive populations that are limited in alternatives to current residential placement due to the form and organization of human society and the inherent difficulty in simply moving camp. 

Retreat relatively little in time and comprehend the devastation on human populations by way of the Black Plague , Spanish Influenza etc . Now the ease and speed of global travel by comparison would likely have been catastrophic had it been possible back then and undeniably a factor in the current global pandemic. Even so the reactive response was attempts at isolation , social rejection and the formulation of the term "quarantine".

Taking your example of 1 in 100 at worst case incidence of familial cross infection ignores the extrapolated risk of generating yet another more dangerous variant within society if simply ignored in favor a return to "normal" which does not yet exist (if it ever did  but anyway!). With compliance to practical mitigation practices is the social risk 1 in 100?

A lot of the emphasis on such a return to normality is argued as a "Social Community " concern from an economic position  but is not balanced with countered " Community Risk".

IMHO if there was a genuine concern by the global Haves for the global Have Nots there would have been a release of genetically  modified mosquitoes that in time would decimate the variety that transmits many lethal diseases that annually kills millions. Why has it not ? The argument has been the unknown impact on the environment. Ha! Or is the truth of it that such mosquitoes are,as yet< not an infection problem in wealthy Western countries.

Covid-19 presents differently so the emphasis has a different urgency. Invariably politicoeconomic !

 

 

 

 

Genetically modified mosquitoes. Wow.

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, kellyk11 said:

If someone in your household has Covid there is only a 10% chance you will get it.

Which is a bit odd because when I caught COVID in Jan 2020, everyone in my home caught it from me too.

[Nojohndoe]

2 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Genetically modified mosquitoes. Wow.

Is a fact. Rendering sterility as the genetic modification is passed on. (As I understand it )

[Nojohndoe]

2 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Which is a bit odd because when I caught COVID in Jan 2020, everyone in my home caught it from me too.

Well done  !  Above average  people ! lol

[Scott]

1 hour ago, kellyk11 said:

It is a study across 68 countries. It should show a MASSIVE drop in Covid cases where there is high vaccination. Vaccination should stop Covid in it's tracks.

 

People only agreed to get vaccinated because they were promised this would be over when we had a high vaccination rate. We will have a civil war in the UK if the government tries to take away people's freedom again. People won't agree to "a few weeks to flatten the curve" because they know it never ends there. People have been patient.

 

If the new normal is going to be regular vaccinations, plus masks, plus tracking of people everywhere, plus a crashed economy, then we have to talk about splitting society. That isn't a life worth living for a lot of us. 

 

If someone in your household has Covid there is only a 10% chance you will get it. If we had worried about such marginal risks in the past civilization wouldn't have advanced. We would be on lock down in our caves.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-9304877/If-household-COVID-19-theres-1-10-chance-youll-catch-too.html

 

If there are people who want to be protected from very small risks, at the expense of living a full life, we should try to accommodate them while the rest of us can carry on with the old normal.

I don't want to cast shade on either the study or your take on it.  I think it is a snapshot that doesn't show the whole story.   There is still a lot we need to learn about the virus.

The main takeaway from the study is that vaccines ALONE may not be quite enough to tackle the virus.   The virus manages to stay ahead of us, although science seems to be fast on it's heels.  With the original viral strain, it was believed that 70% vaccination would achieve herd immunity.  The more transmissible a virus is the higher the level of vaccination needed to gain herd immunity.  With Delta, it is believed that herd immunity is reached at around 90%.  

Lock downs work, but an effective lock down is pretty draconian.   It results in major economic problems and it goes against our need to be social.  We simply don't do well when isolated.   Masks also work but masks require a high level of compliance and it needs to be remembered that they only provide about 10% protection for the wearer.  The main protection is for those around an infected person.  Masks also need to be worn in conjunction with social distancing.  
 

It would appear our best chances are with vaccines.  Some seem to work better, some not so good.  Some seem to be effective longer, some not.  Some seem to work better with current variants, some not.  

If we want any kind of return to what was normal, then we need to keep fighting the virus.

[Nojohndoe]

6 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Genetically modified mosquitoes. Wow.

I just checked my original information. Now different places have been "experimentally " releasing such .

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53856776

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

Which is a bit odd because when I caught COVID in Jan 2020, everyone in my home caught it from me too.

And yet you admit you were never tested. Please, stop.

[david555]

 (Did they already found out from where originating this very latest variant AY.4.2. ?)

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-covid-delta-variant-cdc-b1942237.html

A new strain of the Delta variant of Covid-19 that has been spreading across the UK has now been detected in the US, health officials said at a White House briefing.

The UK has seen more than 40,000 cases of Covid per day for eight days – now approaching 50,000 – and authorities have established a link with the new strain, called AY.4.2.

Edited October 21, 2021 by david555