Covid - 19, The Omicron Variant and Christmas 2021

[Scott]

It's a tough decision.  I am not in Thailand, but I do not do indoor dining quite yet.  Where I live, you can drive through or eat at outside seating.  If there is an option for your group to eat outdoors, such as a hotel balcony, I'd definitely feel ok. 

 

If it's indoors and you decide to go ahead, I'd tend to limit the time indoors as much as possible.  Maybe eat and then go for drinks/desert somewhere with outdoor seating.   Indoors, you are not only getting everyone in your group breathing, but everyone else as well.  

 

I wouldn't worry about Omicron specifically.   Even if you could get a boost, it takes around 14 days to reach peak immunity.  

 

 

[Scott]

Off-topic post removed.   Please stay on topic.  

 

[sezze]

1 hour ago, Oblomov said:

What are you talking about ?  A  new variant does not necessarily follow the same hospitalization trend for many reasons - vaccination and natural anti-bodies after infection - none of that was prevalent with Delta

 

SA is ahead of the European curve so we can glean some positives from there so far

 

Don't simply assume things of this variant that are not yet proven - that's silly

 

 

Don't simply assume things on SA , the population there is not at all the same like in EU . The data out of UK is much more important then the ones out of SA . SA can give a hint , but with the cases in UK , you get very reliable large scale data from a country which has more or less the same population/vaccination/health issues then the rest of EU . Remember 1st wave , better act a bit too fast then too slow , and rather be cautious then confident . You can always make everything back to normal , but you can't make the hospitals empty in a day .

[sezze]

Data out of Denmark ... spread rate similar then UK .

[Letseng]

12 hours ago, Havenstreet1940 said:

Would you agree therefore, that the major concern of the UK is the possible overwhelming of hospitals given the expected/forecast 'tidal wave' of this variant and the collapse of the NHS due to the numbers requiring hospitalisation remembering that the England has, I believe,about 100,000 beds available, and that in the real world, the situation is more optimistic?

Hospitals are already struggling. Or why would they have postponed a huge no. of operations, chemotherapies for cancer patients. Beds are needed for emergencies, other health issues and not just for Covid. 

[Letseng]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

It's a tough decision.  I am not in Thailand, but I do not do indoor dining quite yet.  Where I live, you can drive through or eat at outside seating.  If there is an option for your group to eat outdoors, such as a hotel balcony, I'd definitely feel ok. 

 

If it's indoors and you decide to go ahead, I'd tend to limit the time indoors as much as possible.  Maybe eat and then go for drinks/desert somewhere with outdoor seating.   Indoors, you are not only getting everyone in your group breathing, but everyone else as well.  

 

I wouldn't worry about Omicron specifically.   Even if you could get a boost, it takes around 14 days to reach peak immunity.  

 

 

I would rather get a 3rd jab, lie low for 14 days rather than not getting a booster.

[connda]

13 hours ago, Havenstreet1940 said:

Watching the UK News this morning and Bojos announcement of a UK National Omicron Emergency concentrated my thoughts on the situation in Thailand with this variant and whether I should cancel my planned Christmas Day Lunch for 12 Thai people,  all have had two jabs of Astrazeneca.

Yeah.  If you want to be safe, I'd recommend staying home.  Much safer! 

[Letseng]

I received an invitation for Xmas day lunch. Would love to go but I know that facemasks get dropped in farang circles. As the afternoon progresses booze lets forget that we have a pandemic. A few of the guests are anti vaccination. 

I most likely will not accept the invitation. I lived in almost total seclusion for 2 yrs. 

[bangon04]

11 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Utter panic in the UK.  The media totally antagonize the situation.

 

For reasonably healthy individuals who have been vaccinated Omicron probably represents nothing worse than a bad cold- but you know what it's like when politicians, the media, public health experts and scientists become involved.  

 

More media feeding frenzy.... there is ONE reported death of a patient confirmed with Omicron variant in the UK.

Big Pharma is now saying that 2 x AZ is not enough. Must be 3 jabs minimum. 

Mass testing, mass vaccination, and of course mass media panic.

What a way to live......

[Kadilo]

2 hours ago, Oblomov said:

I can  assure you that there is no panic in UK - Johnson's hyperbole is as well known as his inability to tell the truth and he'll be back on the game shows before  February

 

The media are egregiously bad in UK and are making a sensation of one death yet news is already trickling out that the deceased was aged with myriad complex and severe health conditions. The idiotic BBC couldn't wait a day to add context to a story as it doesn't fit their agenda

Guessed that was the case when the headline was that one person had died in the UK “with” Omicron as opposed to “from”

 

More sensationalism and hysteria. 

[VBF]

2 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Absolutely. LBC used to be a good listen but 9 out of 10 of their hosts are now sheep, just regurgitating the same narrative. 

Maajid Nawaz is the exception. He delves deeper into the stories and questions the narrative. Asking questions such as why our governments' (paid) medical advisors won't acknowledge the apparent mildness of Omicron despite South Africa's medics shouting it from the roof tops. And why there is talk of jabbing healthy 5 year olds when the risk of heart complications from the vaccine is many times higher than the risk of getting sick from Covid for a 5 year old. 

 

It's now all about pushing the booster jabs. And of course the booster cannot be the (non-profit) AZ vaccine, it has to be Pfizer or Moderna who will get multi-billion dollar ongoing contracts out of this. It's no wonder scepticism is growing. 

 

The vast majority in the UK will go ahead with Christmas plans no matter what Boris says now. And he knows it.

 

 

Exactly.... All of us (with brains) here in UK are vaxxed x 3 so the hell with it - tine to live with it having done all we can rather than cower for another year! 

[VBF]

23 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

Guessed that was the case when the headline was that one person had died in the UK “with” Omicron as opposed to “from”

 

More sensationalism and hysteria. 

Thank you for pointing out the distinction!! These fools who don't get that REALLY annoy me!

[Kadilo]

48 minutes ago, VBF said:

Thank you for pointing out the distinction!! These fools who don't get that REALLY annoy me!

The media and the doomsayers love a good headline grab using terms like “tsunami “ and “tidal wave” to describe potential events.

 

Then you have Boris using phrases in his address like we are in an “emergency situation” then contradicts himself with things like work from home but you can have a Xmas parties, Xmas concerts, and large gatherings can continue including nightclubs so he’s lost all credibility and backpedaling all the time due to last years shenanigans, where he and his cronies decided that despite all his preaching they could basically do whatever they want.
 

In addition he’s got all his backbench mob threatening to revolt if he tries to impose any more restrictions. 
 

 

Edited December 13, 2021 by Kadilo

[mommysboy]

3 hours ago, sezze said:

The panic is there since they see the spread of Omicron . It is 50% extra every single day , so more then doubling every 2 days ... you can see in 14d how far we are ( take a excel file and add 50% daily ... check your numbers...) . 1st cases are in hospital and 1st confirmed death is also there , so it is not a save and harmless virus . Will it be safer then Delta , probably , but the spread rate is too fast , especially if the virulence is unknown , but it certainly isn't a cold .

It appears far less dangerous that's for sure.

 

Vaccines also offer high protection against severe illness even after 6 months.

 

Obviously some will die just as some do with other respiratory infections- that's a sad fact of life, growing old, and having chronic illness.

 

The danger is the NHS will be swamped with moderately ill people because omicron has the ability to infect so many so quickly.  This is what the politicians are really worried about because it shows them up as usual.

 

 

 

[joecoolfrog]

14 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Utter panic in the UK.  The media totally antagonize the situation.

 

For reasonably healthy individuals who have been vaccinated Omicron probably represents nothing worse than a bad cold- but you know what it's like when politicians, the media, public health experts and scientists become involved.  

 

 

 

 

Im resident in the UK and see no panic , but yes the authorities and media are presenting doomsday scenarios.

In essence this is to frighten the stubborn and stupid into getting vaccinated or boosted , not a bad goal.

Back to the OP , at this stage I wouldn't cancel your xmas meal , if all parties are double vaxed then the chances of severe infection are mitigated to a reasonable level IMO.

[joecoolfrog]

13 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

Yes I would agree.  But the UK government are hoping that mask wearing in shops and on public transport will stop it.   Thailand already does this.   

Not entirely accurate , the UK is pushing hard for everybody to get a third vaccination (booster) as well. In this respect Thailand is still lagging well behind.

[joecoolfrog]

5 hours ago, CG1 Blue said:

Well said. The UK government is being economical with the truth, and this just arouses more suspicion.

Sceptics might say it's quite convenient to say one person in the UK has died from Omicron just a day after Boris' emergency announcement.

No details of this one person's age or state of health. Sceptics may even wonder if they just made it up. 

Perhaps the UK government is being alarmist but would you prefer that Boris did an Anutin and said '' relax , everything is under control " ?

The bottom line is that one has to wear a mask in certain circumstances and get a booster shot , hardly onerous is it.

 

[joecoolfrog]

5 hours ago, Oblomov said:

And you look at the accuracy of their previous 'predictions' also - you have to remember the intention is to ramp up the vaccination program, something I fully agree with, but there are more efficient ways to do this

 

Im not so sure that there are more efficient ways , still a lot of lunatic anti vaxers around.

When you see other european nations resort to gestapo methods to get its citizens jabbed , im not sure the UK has been too bad.

Yes many of us recognise that much of the guidance and reporting is of a worse case scenario , but if it scares some into compliance then good.

[Oblomov]

32 minutes ago, joecoolfrog said:

Im not so sure that there are more efficient ways , still a lot of lunatic anti vaxers around.

When you see other european nations resort to gestapo methods to get its citizens jabbed , im not sure the UK has been too bad.

Yes many of us recognise that much of the guidance and reporting is of a worse case scenario , but if it scares some into compliance then good.

The problem with worst case scenarios is that they don't scare people or at least not those they are focused on, as they tie neatly into conspiracy theories - we only  have to look at the 

environmental catastrophe projections that elicit only tiny steps towards compliance towards a global plan to tackle the looming issues.

 

The UK government should have been focusing more on reminding people of the effects to the myriad other treatments neglected and postponed without compliance in preventative measures. It should have also been emphasized more that the platform for some vaccines was a platform use to build vaccines for seasonal flu variants. UK  lurched from attempting to terrify everyone to ridiculous initiatives such as 'eat out to help out.' so the message was never coherent or rational.

 

I doubt the Europeans would appreciate the gestapo analogy as surely that would be guns and prison cells. 

 

On some passes, including entry to Thailand, one can show proof of vaccination and also proof or recovering from this virus as acceptable so we will have to hope this present variation leaves a mass of natural immunity in it's wake as vaccines can never be tweaked to retain efficacy at the rate variants can potentially spring up.

 

I never thought anything  would be debated so vociferously and with such adamant opposition of sides as in the Brexit imbroglio and as equally divisive.

[Chomper Higgot]

10 hours ago, Oblomov said:

Who have also been wildly wrong on numerous occasions - I'm not disputing the inevitable spread of this globally but it's the panic that is counter productive and senseless. Ramp up precautions until more is known as these variants will be popping up all over the world, probably forever now, so there's got to be a more measured approach or this is life from now on and I don't think anyone wants this much longer.

 

 

If you don’t like panic then let’s hope the hospitals do no become overwhelmed.

 

 

[sirineou]

I wanted to travel to Greece for Christmas, but I will wait until April and go there for Easter .

I want to see how this Omicron variant plays out, I am concerned that if the preverbal Poopoo hits the fan there might be restrictions there, and perhaps restrictions coming back.  

[NoshowJones]

22 hours ago, mommysboy said:

Well who knows the way Thailand will play it.  My gut instinct is they will go in to a very strict lockdown.

 

But it really depends on the severity of illness omicron causes.  The next 2 weeks in UK will tell us.

 

Your Xmas party- probably ok.

I think it will depend on how this greedy soldiers government can increase their wealth or not, if this Amicron Cvirus is less effective than the others, I don't think there will be any lockdowns, but on the other hand????

I think insurance companies, certain hotels etc, will be happy to see this pandemic go on as long as possible.

[248900_1469958220]

Like I said...some people are going to have a real hard time letting this go. At what point does this end? How many boosters? The first two dont seem so great.....third times a charm??? Please dont force me to take another shot. I am NOT very confident with any of them. It would be fair to say, with good reason. Will keep fit, get vitamin D, not smoke, not eat carb laden sugar sandwiches frosted pork for breakfast.....

 

https://trialsitenews.com/cdc-report-80-of-u-s-omicron-cases-in-fully-vaccinated/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/most-reported-us-omicron-cases-have-hit-fully-vaccinated-cdc-2021-12-10/

Edited December 14, 2021 by 248900_1469958220

[Chomper Higgot]

15 minutes ago, 248900_1469958220 said:

Like I said...some people are going to have a real hard time letting this go. At what point does this end? How many boosters? The first two dont seem so great.....third times a charm??? Please dont force me to take another shot. I am NOT very confident with any of them. It would be fair to say, with good reason. Will keep fit, get vitamin D, not smoke, not eat carb laden sugar sandwiches frosted pork for breakfast.....

 

https://trialsitenews.com/cdc-report-80-of-u-s-omicron-cases-in-fully-vaccinated/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/most-reported-us-omicron-cases-have-hit-fully-vaccinated-cdc-2021-12-10/

The existing vaccines have done an exceptional job at reducing infections, serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

A new variant of this wretched virus comes along and additional vaccinations are necessary, it’s they it is.

 

Good luck with eschewing vaccination in favour of some health kick ideas.

[248900_1469958220]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The existing vaccines have done an exceptional job at reducing infections, serious illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

A new variant of this wretched virus comes along and additional vaccinations are necessary, it’s they it is.

 

Good luck with eschewing vaccination in favour of some health kick ideas.

Thanks.

[mommysboy]

 

UK over-reacting

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html

[mommysboy]

10 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

Perhaps the UK government is being alarmist but would you prefer that Boris did an Anutin and said '' relax , everything is under control " ?

The bottom line is that one has to wear a mask in certain circumstances and get a booster shot , hardly onerous is it.

 

'that one has to wear a mask'

 

You wouldn't have thought it so difficult!  In fact I prefer to these days.  But some people kick and scream like it's an iron mask.

[VBF]

16 hours ago, Kadilo said:

The media and the doomsayers love a good headline grab using terms like “tsunami “ and “tidal wave” to describe potential events.

 

Then you have Boris using phrases in his address like we are in an “emergency situation” then contradicts himself with things like work from home but you can have a Xmas parties, Xmas concerts, and large gatherings can continue including nightclubs so he’s lost all credibility and backpedaling all the time due to last years shenanigans, where he and his cronies decided that despite all his preaching they could basically do whatever they want.
 

In addition he’s got all his backbench mob threatening to revolt if he tries to impose any more restrictions. 

 

And they're pretty revolting already..... 

[sirineou]

19 hours ago, mommysboy said:

 

UK over-reacting

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10306211/DR-ANGELIQUE-COETZEE-alerted-wider-world-Omicron-believe-Britain-overreacting.html

she said :

"this reaction is out of all proportion to the risks posed by this variant."

 

Though the doctor makes several good points she fails to address the concern that we don't  really know what the risks posed by this variant are yet .

Discretion being the better part of valor I am of the opinion that governments need to find a balance between over reacting and under reacting , which to me seems to be what is happening here. 

    From an evolutionary perspective, a viruses that does not kill the host offers an advantage for reproduction to the viruses. An alive  and   more healthy host moves through the population more, replicating the viruses, 

 Replication being the main purpose of a virus. 

 so let's hope that Omicron  is the vector that leads  toward   that development. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by sirineou

[ThailandPermanent]

My plan is to go to the UK for Christmas then jump back into Thailand

 

I know it's crystal ball stuff. But honest guess at the chance Thailand panics and bans travel from the UK?

 

Absolutely cannot risk getting stranded in the UK. This is giving me such anxiety