If war breaks out in Ukraine, what do you think will be the impact on your expat life in Thailand?

[Caldera]

The impact on my expat life will be zilch. 

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, Thunglom said:

"

This is NOT the place to make predictions

So what are your concerns/predictions 

 

If there is a war the impact on economies in Europe will be huge - Especially the UK....that means that even if Thailand opens up the numbers visiting will be restricted.

you may also find fighting in the streets in Thailand between the various groups.

Any Russian oligarchs with funds in in Europe may find that they haven't any money anymore

 

China is backing Russia. If Thailand follows China then there will be repercussions for EU - Thai relations and trade may get interrupted.... apart from tourism, that would be electronics and the moro industry. They my also find themselves outbidded on imports of fuel.

You edited my post OUT OF CONTEXT to intentionally change the meaning of what I wrote. Do you really think that is acceptable?

[Jingthing]

The reason I am encouraging people to not make this a political debate topic and instead talk about impacts on expats in Thailand is that members may not start political debate topics.

[Rimmer]

Troll  post removed

[Chris.B]

5 hours ago, Chris.B said:

No effect! I am betting Ukraine to win or at least, inflict significant damage to Russian forces. ????

 

I hope the Ukrainians take out as many of the Russian invaders as they can.  ????

 

[StayinThailand2much]

23 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

How?

Won't say.

[sammieuk1]

No impact the generals will save us if Prawit has set his alarm ????

[Nojohndoe]

16 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The reason I am encouraging people to not make this a political debate topic and instead talk about impacts on expats in Thailand is that members may not start political debate topics.

If your  expectation is so defined it will not satisfy . Obviously the  political  substance which forms any opinion of your question will be forefront in response. To avoid would require a "tick box" specification!

Personally I would expect a fairly rapid inflation surge in the majority of what would be considered  basic items and a huge leap in fuel prices.  However the outcome/endgame  will be unlikely to result in any escalation of the "already war" but the mutual attempts to threaten so will provide the desired surreptitious result !

[Virt]

4 minutes ago, Chris.B said:

I hope the Ukrainians take out as many of the Russian invaders as they can.  ????

 

When i watch the news it seems like the Ukrainian troops are no where to be found.

Instead i see a lot of locals training with wooden weapons.

 

That's not going to kill a lot of Russians, so i think your hope is dead and buried.

[steven100]

22 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Won't say.

because you have a particular stock that does well in times of war ...   imo

[jts-khorat]

7 hours ago, thainet said:

Other than not so many Russians or Ukrainians visiting Pattaya, why would it impact our expat life here.

Bit of a silly thread topic really.

On the contrary, russian tourists (and a lot of russion money) were a big driver in the tourist economioy of Thailand (at least before Covid).

 

Add to that chaos on the currency echange and the stock market,a s well as sky high energy prices in Europe, which will cut into the income stream of many expats in Thailand. And as some have already mentioned, flight paths from Europe to Thailand might need to change, which will make flight tickets over summer most likely not cheaper.

 

In the long run, Russia is positioning itself with China (as they are forced to do by the West); there has just now been an agreement signed that Russia and China will respect each others 'territorial integrity' and ambitions, which means, if the russian adventure in the Ukraine will pay off -- especially if the US is shown as weak in their reaction as I realistically expect it would be -- we might see not much later (or even concurrently!) a similar exercise happening with Taiwan.

 

This of course might bring worldwide issues which will then really affect everbody, even if they are in "far-away" Thailand.

 

Of course this is a worst-case scenario. I currently am still of good hope that the Russian troop-buildup is not much more than a signal for NATO to stay their distance. Weather report in Ukraine for the next days is sunny with not even frost at night, so I see already not much chance of tanks rolling through the marshes on from Belarus and latest in March the whole region will become impassable for heavy armaments; also much of the tanks we see in the press seem to be decrepit old hardware barely able to funktion, not the modern weaponry Russia certainly could have mustered instead (of course, maybe we are seeing what we should).

 

Of course this are merely idle musings from my armchair. Still, I put my word where my mouth is and am currently invested in some russian stocks, at an unusual high percentage -- and hence unusual risky for me -- of my overall depot.

 

In a few days we will know which scenario was the right one.

Edited February 13, 2022 by jts-khorat
add for clarity

[Chris.B]

6 minutes ago, Virt said:

When i watch the news it seems like the Ukrainian troops are no where to be found.

Instead i see a lot of locals training with wooden weapons.

 

That's not going to kill a lot of Russians, so i think your hope is dead and buried.

That's the master plan! Just wait until the plan comes to fruition!! ????

[DaveE13]

18 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

No impact the generals will save us if Prawit has set his alarm ????

Can you imagine? The toad would fall asleep ???? 

[Nojohndoe]

11 minutes ago, Chris.B said:

I hope the Ukrainians take out as many of the Russian invaders as they can.  ????

I guess you  mean  "if" Russian forces invade ?Maybe they  should use the "Pre-emptive" peace keeping  approach of the US? Race across the eastern territories to  rip the barrels off the Russian (how  many) tanks ?

[jts-khorat]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Possibly not.

 

"The market is reacting because an actual invasion has not yet been priced in," said Michael Farr of Farr, Miller and Washington LLC. "The severity of an invasion, if one occurs, will correlate to the severity of the market’s reaction."

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-investors-expect-more-volatility-ukraine-concerns-spook-markets-2022-02-11/

If I look at the stock price of companies who would be very heavily affected by an incursion into Ukraine by Russia, like Gazprom, then certainly a negative scenario is not priced in -- the stock has just come done minimally from a 20% spurt up. I guess, lots of people play the same game as I do. ????

[tgw]

2 hours ago, mtls2005 said:

This seems like the best possible outcome, provided some invasion is made.

 

But some analysts say it is likely Russia will annex all the territory east of the Dnepr.

 

https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine

 

 

This is why the bizarre claim of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu posted on the Kremlin’s official website of American mercenaries preparing a “provocation” with chemical weapons in Ukraine is ominous and might foreshadow just the type of “incident” the Kremlin would prepare.

 

same source

the limited invasion of the two secessionist republics is also the most likely invasion-scenario, if there is an invasion at all.

 

the "plans" posted on the CSIS cover all scenarios, except that of "Novorossiya" present in Putin's thoughts, which would result, in fact, in the invasion of Eastern Ukraine and Southern Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya

 

But I still bet on the relative non-event of invasion of both separatist republics.

Starting a war with the rest of Ukraine would taint relations for the next 50 years and possibly mean the termination of persons dear to Putin and confiscation of Russia's international possessions, as well as a lockout of all Russian business and money from the rest of the world.

I don't think his cronies will agree to that.

 

Now Russia plays up tensions until everyone will be relieved they just take the two republics, which is more or less unavoidable anyway.

 

The play by Biden and the rest of the world seems to support that, and the CSIS publication also supports this scenario by adding to the scaremongering.

 

[SheikYabodyline]

Depends if there is a nuclear strike on Bangkok; if that happens, I'm definitely giving the nightlife a miss for a week or two.

[JustAnotherHun]

8 minutes ago, tgw said:

Starting a war with the rest of Ukraine would taint relations for the next 50 years and possibly mean the termination of persons dear to Putin and confiscation of Russia's international possessions, as well as a lockout of all Russian business and money from the rest of the world.

Then Europe would face some bloody cold winters.

[Adumbration]

7 hours ago, Stocky said:

Very little.

Very wrong.

 

In the unlikely event that war does actually break out between Russia and the Ukraine, China will use that as an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

 

When that happens Thailand's current regime will side with China.  Western expats here can then expect, at best, to have their visas cancelled.

[StayinThailand2much]

32 minutes ago, steven100 said:

because you have a particular stock that does well in times of war ...   imo

Something like that. ????

[StayinThailand2much]

13 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

(...)

 

In the unlikely event that war does actually break out between Russia and the Ukraine, China will use that as an opportunity to move on Taiwan.

 

When that happens Thailand's current regime will side with China.  Western expats here can then expect, at best, to have their visas cancelled.

Agree with most of your post, except the visa part, as I don't think they will be affected.

Edited February 13, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[Adumbration]

Just now, StayinThailand2much said:

Agree with most of your post, except the visa part.

Please note carefully that I use "at best" in that sentence.  And then flag my opinion for future reference.

[Thunglom]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

The reason I am encouraging people to not make this a political debate topic and instead talk about impacts on expats in Thailand is that members may not start political debate topics.

sp why have you done that?

[ivor bigun]

I dont think it will come to a war ,but if it does ,i dont think it will impact our lives here too badly ,but i think it would teach Britain in particular to give the tree huggers a kick up the , and start making our own power again ,

[steven100]

26 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Western expats here can then expect, at best, to have their visas cancelled.

what nonsense you gargle ......

[Adumbration]

17 minutes ago, steven100 said:

what nonsense you gargle ......

I will pin your response for future reference. 

[connda]

A war with Russia will be a world war.
Immediate ramifications:  Russia, China, and Iran become allies as well as other non-aligned countries within South East Asia.

Now the question becomes: If a world war breaks out and your home country in the West is in a hot war with Russia, China, and Iran - what effect do you believe it will have on your life as an expat?

Well, in a world war involving China, my guess is that Thailand will capitulate and side with their Chinese brethren.  Like WWII, Westerners will be  rounded up, and placed in not-too-nice interment camps and may or may not survive.  You're relative treatment may have something to do with the amount of bad-mouthing you've done on social media against China and Russia in the past. 
If ya'll are actually worried about it, I'd suggest getting a plane out of the country before SHTF.  I fully expect to be alive to see a world war with Russia and China, and if it happens this year I will not be surprised. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by connda

[The Hammer2021]

Pointless thread - no impact- maybe a few yanks will get beaten up by Russians...

[The Hammer2021]

"This NOT a POLITICAL discussion topic. 

This is NOT the place to express pro Russian or pro Ukraine / NATO / Western feelings.

This is NOT the place to make predictions about what will happen there, as in war or no war. etc."

LOLOLOL

[The Hammer2021]

"The idea of this topic is that a war in Ukraine would represent the most significant war in Europe since WW2.:"

Has the OP ever heard of The Balkans?