If war breaks out in Ukraine, what do you think will be the impact on your expat life in Thailand?

[wasabi]

I underestimated the impact Covid will have so I won't do the same here. That said it's anyone's guess. I think the stock market (most but not all stocks) will continue dropping until what is going to happen and how quickly it will be resolved is more clear. Oil will continue to rise. If no war or a brief skirmish it could be a great buying opportunity but if things escalate could worsen already strained supply chains and best to sit it out. Someone else mentioned China is watching closely. I would hate war to happen anywhere but the reality is Ukraine is not that important to the global economy. Taiwan on the other hand is critically important for Microchips worldwide. China is surely aware of this and also dependent on microchips but I can't guess what they are willing to sacrifice to reclaim Taiwan. A cyber or military attack could have severe and lasting consequences. The world may become a very different place, just like Covid changed the world if that happens. I can't see the US defending Ukraine or Taiwan on a military level so the question is does either country really care about US and European sanctions?

 

I have 70% of my money in Dividend producing stocks, none of which will be disrupted even by war so financially I will be fine. But the other 30% is in growth stocks. Those have already taken a hit but would drop more. I considered selling on Friday but I am in a position to ride it out and have always failed at market timing so for now Let it Ride. I hope this turns out like Bay of Pigs brinkmanship ending peacefully, but the world is very different now.

Edited February 13, 2022 by wasabi

[gargamon]

Putin and Jinping are buddies now. Putin will wait until the Olympics are over before invading. At the same time Jinping will make a move to take over Taiwan. This, in their minds, will make both their attacks more likely to succeed.

 

If this occurs, life could he hell for the expat in Thailand. Expect China to not stop with Taiwan and continue taking Laos, Thailand, etc. Be prepared to jump ship and head back to your home country or wherever you feel safe.

[wasabi]

4 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Putin and Jinping are buddies now. Putin will wait until the Olympics are over before invading. At the same time Jinping will make a move to take over Taiwan. This, in their minds, will make both their attacks more likely to succeed.

 

If this occurs, life could he hell for the expat in Thailand. Expect China to not stop with Taiwan and continue taking Laos, Thailand, etc. Be prepared to jump ship and head back to your home country or wherever you feel safe.

Taiwan is an economic treasure trove. The people are culturally similar to China an invasion is going to happen, just a matter of when.

 

Laos may be communist but they and Thailand likely have very little economic value to China. An invasion would be a messy headache. We are not talking about the Third Reich with genocidal aspirations we are talking about economic reshuffling and logical border expansion.

Edited February 13, 2022 by wasabi

[habanero]

Good time to be an arms dealer in Eastern Europe. They will be the one's to benefit the most.

[Jingthing]

17 minutes ago, connda said:

A war with Russia will be a world war.
Immediate ramifications:  Russia, China, and Iran become allies as well as other non-aligned countries within South East Asia.

Now the question becomes: If a world war breaks out and your home country in the West is in a hot war with Russia, China, and Iran - what effect do you believe it will have on your life as an expat?

Well, in a world war involving China, my guess is that Thailand will capitulate and side with their Chinese brethren.  Like WWII, Westerners will be  rounded up, and placed in not-too-nice interment camps and may or may not survive.  You're relative treatment may have something to do with the amount of bad-mouthing you've done on social media against China and Russia in the past. 
If ya'll are actually worried about it, I'd suggest getting a plane out of the country before SHTF.  I fully expect to be alive to see a world war with Russia and China, and if it happens this year I will not be surprised. 

Sounds alarmist but history shows only fools say it can't happen here.

[habanero]

14 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Putin and Jinping are buddies now. Putin will wait until the Olympics are over before invading. At the same time Jinping will make a move to take over Taiwan. This, in their minds, will make both their attacks more likely to succeed.

 

If this occurs, life could he hell for the expat in Thailand. Expect China to not stop with Taiwan and continue taking Laos, Thailand, etc. Be prepared to jump ship and head back to your home country or wherever you feel safe.

Thailand's value to China is the Navy base. From there China will have better control on India. 

[bert bloggs]

4 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Sounds alarmist but history shows only fools say it can't happen here.

Well we all know that if world war 3 is faught with atomic weapons world war 4 will be faught with sticks and stones

[Eloquent pilgrim]

Silliest post of the day ….. by a country mile

[connda]

8 hours ago, thainet said:

 

Bit of a silly thread topic really.

Not really.  Most Westerners live in total ignorance of the geopolitical ramifications of a global war, especially as they only entertain their own continuity bias as well as basking in their  own country's Western exceptionalism.  You'll all be standing flat-footed and mouthing the words, "We never saw that coming!", when it arrives.  Until then, "Silly thread."

[FalangTingTong]

I seriously doubt, considering the imbalance of power, that it will be anywhere near as significant as the Balkan wars, so I guess I don’t buy your premise.

 

However I agree with the general sentiment here that it’ll be really tough on Russian expats because of whatever global sanctions Washington insists everyone play along with.

 

And on any Ukrainians here of course.

 

But for the rest of the expats?  Can’t see it making much difference unless China gets jumpy, which I don’t think it will.  Maybe Germans will get more calls from home complaining about the cold?

[gargamon]

44 minutes ago, wasabi said:

Taiwan is an economic treasure trove. The people are culturally similar to China an invasion is going to happen, just a matter of when.

 

Laos may be communist but they and Thailand likely have very little economic value to China. An invasion would be a messy headache. We are not talking about the Third Reich with genocidal aspirations we are talking about economic reshuffling and logical border expansion.

A Chinese takeover of these secondary countries like Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, etc would probably not be messy. Xinping would say they are taking over. The secondary countries would say OK. Probably not a shot would be fired here. The Chinese alrready have done the financial takeover, the rest is easy.

[Seppius]

I think with the sanctions imposed, it would be very hard for Russian tourists to travel anywhere in the world including Thailand , except maybe Vietnam or North Korea

 

So impact here, no Russians

[tgw]

1 hour ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Then Europe would face some bloody cold winters.

not really. I guess reserves will be enough to cover this year's winter which will soon be over, and then there is almost a year to organize energy.

sure, Europe would need to reactivate a lot of carbon-based energy plants and import a lot of fossil fuels, and the French would build NPPs (nuclear power plants) everywhere.

maritime tanker traffic to EU ports would resume and oil from OPEC will flow again without production cap.

[Saanim]

9 hours ago, thainet said:

Other than not so many Russians or Ukrainians visiting Pattaya, why would it impact our expat life here.

Wondering what is that (and why?) every shop there is showing мы говорим по-русски  

[tgw]

2 minutes ago, Saanim said:

Wondering what is that (and why?) every shop there is showing мы говорим по-русски  

well, don't you read cyrillic ?

it means "myi gavarim pa russki"

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by tgw

[JustAnotherHun]

6 minutes ago, tgw said:

not really. I guess reserves will be enough to cover this year's winter which will soon be over, and then there is almost a year to organize energy.

sure, Europe would need to reactivate a lot of carbon-based energy plants and import a lot of fossil fuels, and the French would build NPPs (nuclear power plants) everywhere.

maritime tanker traffic to EU ports would resume and oil from OPEC will flow again without production cap.

Reorganizing the supply chaines is not a matter of a couple of months. You can't replace gas fired plants by oil. And to build the already announced NPPs in France and elsewhere takes many years.

It would cause huge impacts to the already endangered European energy system if Russia would close the pipelines. 

[tgw]

8 minutes ago, JustAnotherHun said:

Reorganizing the supply chaines is not a matter of a couple of months. You can't replace gas fired plants by oil. And to build the already announced NPPs in France and elsewhere takes many years.

It would cause huge impacts to the already endangered European energy system if Russia would close the pipelines. 

well, nordstream 2 isn't even open yet and nordstream 1 is at 50% capacity

[jts-khorat]

1 hour ago, tgw said:

not really. I guess reserves will be enough to cover this year's winter which will soon be over, and then there is almost a year to organize energy.

sure, Europe would need to reactivate a lot of carbon-based energy plants and import a lot of fossil fuels, and the French would build NPPs (nuclear power plants) everywhere.

maritime tanker traffic to EU ports would resume and oil from OPEC will flow again without production cap.

Nowadays it takes more like 15 years to build a nuclear power plant, with all the needed permissions, court cases dragging it along, etc. Those are not quick fixes.

 

I also seem to remember that the West has done their utmost to <deleted> off all the big oil producers in the Middle East; I would not wonder overmuch if they try to move the power balance back in their favor by "just not" sending us their oil and gas, selling it to ever-hungry China instead.

 

In any case, looking at Ukraine as an isolated conflict which will not lead to unintended consequences all over the world could be naive.

 

In case this goes tits-up, at least we Germans better trust the Americans to follow their promises and sell us their liquified gas to a price not more than the Russians would have done it -- so well under world market price.

 

Good luck, the Americans have never broken a promise to an ally or left them in the dust when the going got tough, ey?

[tgw]

I'll go step further than what I posted before.

 

I think the current "negociations" are not what the public thinks they are.

 

I think Russia and the West are currently collaborating to turn on the heat on that "crisis" to get public opinion really scared to then make the mere handover of the separatist republics look like a Western diplomatic victory.

 

Because Putin understands he must not make Biden look weak.

Edited February 13, 2022 by tgw

[Eloquent pilgrim]

It will affect me personally very adversely; I have a Ukrainian girlfriend, so I don’t know what might happen to my chick in Kiev  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Eloquent pilgrim]

10 hours ago, connda said:

Not really.  Most Westerners live in total ignorance of the geopolitical ramifications of a global war, especially as they only entertain their own continuity bias as well as basking in their  own country's Western exceptionalism.  You'll all be standing flat-footed and mouthing the words, "We never saw that coming!", when it arrives.  Until then, "Silly thread."

Fortunately, the world has not witnessed a global war for more than 75 years. So why don't you enlighten us all on what the geopolitical ramifications might be nowadays, rather than simply criticising most westerners for allegedly living in “total ignorance” of any such consequences.

 

The Russian annexation of Crimea in February and March of 2014 received massive worldwide media coverage, as has, since then,  Russian military support for the separatist rebels in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. So, to say that anyone will be standing flat-footed mouthing the words “We never saw that coming” is utterly absurd, and would indicate that your only agenda it to berate westerners en masse. The whole world has been fearing the possibility of a further Russian incursion into Ukraine’s sovereign territory.

 

I look forward to reading the geopolitical landscape that you envisage as a consequence of a modern era global war.   ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Kwasaki]

8 hours ago, tgw said:

Because Putin understands he must not make Biden look weak.

Disagree but can't post why. ????

[mtls2005]

11 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

"The idea of this topic is that a war in Ukraine would represent the most significant war in Europe since WW2.:"

Has the OP ever heard of The Balkans?

 

Is that where Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated?

 

 

 

 

[Hummin]

12 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

"The idea of this topic is that a war in Ukraine would represent the most significant war in Europe since WW2.:"

Has the OP ever heard of The Balkans?

Where the Americans accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy? 

 

The war between Russia and Ukraine will have more consequences, it is more at stakes this time, since former Yugoslavia was braking up, and it was more a separating war. 

Edited February 14, 2022 by Hummin

[tgw]

14 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

"The idea of this topic is that a war in Ukraine would represent the most significant war in Europe since WW2.:"

Has the OP ever heard of The Balkans?

a war between Russia and Ukraine today would be more significant for Europe than the war in the Balkans

[Kwasaki]

32 minutes ago, tgw said:

a war between Russia and Ukraine today would be more significant for Europe than the war in the Balkans

I reckon there will not be any war just some messing around like they have in and around that area for 8 years or so. 

Probably similarities to the Thai and Cambodian temple thingy. 

[simon43]

I have about 10 young science students in Russia, and another couple who live in the Ukraine (online teaching).  I hope that the internet connections between my location and theirs is not interrupted. (I worry more about those in Ukraine..).

[Thunglom]

On 2/13/2022 at 9:40 AM, tgw said:

probably not.

 

If Russia invades, I expect them to "generously" limit themselves to Donetsk and Lughansk oblasts, or the current de-facto borders of Lugansk and Donetsk republics, where the majority of the population is of Russian nationality (don't get confused, Russian nationality but Ukrainian citizenship).

So if this scenario plays out, the "invasion" will be done without combat, since the aforementioned territories are already under Russian control and they would meet no resistance at all.

 

Western media maintain radio silence on this fact - the population of these regions of Ukraine is in its large majority Russian.

 

And this is also the official legitimization of Russia's territorial claims. Little mother Russia wants to protect its children that are being oppressed by evil nazi-nationalist Ukrainian extremists. In reality, Russia wants to add these regions with rich agriculture and industry to its dominion and therefore fomented separatist plots and supports separatists with weapons and personnel.

 

Russia ideally also needs a casus belli, that's why it has been orchestrating various media campaigns and possibly false flag operations.

 

as a consequence, if the Russian invasion is limited to these regions, I expect there won't be a big refugee wave, since most Russians with Ukrainian passports won't object too much to having that new sheriff in town, and those who do will find a new place to live in the rest of Ukraine.

the loss of these 2 regions won't be fatal for Ukraine, but will clearly demonstrate how weak the West is.

 

Then referendums will be held. The 2 republics Lughansk and Donetsk will vote to be independent or attached to Russia. Same as in Crimea. The end.

 

so for expats in Thailand, nothing will change.

Well, the Northern Irish problem was largely that and it isn't solved after nearly 100 years.

 

[anchadian]

Translated from Russian:

https://ria.ru/20220215/ucheniya-1772856307.html

 

MOSCOW, February 15 - RIA Novosti. Part of the Russian troops are returning to their places of permanent deployment after the exercises of the Allied Resolve-2022 exercises, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. "The units of the Southern and Western military districts, having completed their tasks, have already begun loading onto rail and road transport and today they will begin moving to their military garrisons. Individual units will march on their own as part of military columns," he specified. The day before, a meeting was held between President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sershey Shoigu. They discussed the military maneuvers of Russia and Belarus, as well as the progress of negotiations on security guarantees.

[GammaGlobulin]