As election draws near, dissolution rumors grow

[Sunderland]

5 hours ago, BenStark said:

You do realize that since they are now 2 independent parties, each of them needs only half of those 126 MP's?

UTN's target is a mere 25 seats to allow Uncle Wotsit to be nominated as a PM.

[heybruce]

10 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Apart from Covid, which we can't even blame Thaksin of Prayut for, I liked it more after Thaksin and his little sister. I liked and still like especially that is it quiet on the streets. No red-shirts, not fires, no no-go-zones in the middle of the city.

If Thaksin and his party come back to power, what do people expect? Peace? Happiness for all Thai people? Or can we expect that he will try to divide the people even more? And obviously he wants revenge against all those people which he blames for his departure from Thailand - instead of looking in the mirror and admitting that there were good reasons why he was convicted to jail.

 

I really don't want to see Thaksin back in power and history repeating itself and then telling you: I told you so. Please, no more Thaksin!

"I liked and still like especially that is it quiet on the streets. No red-shirts, not fires, no no-go-zones in the middle of the city."

 

The lesson most people read from Thailand's recent history is that repressing democracy and overturning legitimate elections leads to protests.  The lesson you learned is that repression works. 

 

From the full article:

 

"It is clear that should one or both parties get dissolved, massive street protests will likely occur. The student protests that grew during Covid were started because of the dissolution of the Future Forward Party. The protesters called for the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his administration, accusing them of suppressing freedom of speech and violating human rights."

 

"If another dissolution occurs, one can expect protests to be even larger in scale."

[heybruce]

10 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It seems I have to spell it out for you.

I absolutely don't want to see any more of Thaksin and his family and his party.

I am also happy if Prayut is not in charge anymore. And if anybody wants to prosecute him then please go ahead. This covers A and B.

 

Now the big question is: Will many Thai people even try to vote for anybody who is not a well-known crook? Or a family member of a well-known crook?

Will the majority even think about that there are many more options? I have my doubts. 

You don't have to spell it out for us, you have repeatedly made it very clear.  You think that the Thai people shouldn't have democracy unless they vote the way you want them to vote.  You think the same way as Prayut and the elites, and your thinking isn't about democracy.

[madmitch]

It seems quite possible that PT and MFP together could muster enough seats to get a house majority but not enough to elect a PM as the senate will likely vote en masse for one of those that "elected" them. 

 

The PM could have the power to elect a cabinet consisting of minority party members but would never get anything through Parliament. 

 

It sounds a ridiculous scenario. Am I misunderstanding something here?

[Pink Mist]

Bickering trolling posts have been removed. Stay civil please. The topic has nothing to do with US politics either.

[OneMoreFarang]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

"I liked and still like especially that is it quiet on the streets. No red-shirts, not fires, no no-go-zones in the middle of the city."

 

The lesson most people read from Thailand's recent history is that repressing democracy and overturning legitimate elections leads to protests.  The lesson you learned is that repression works. 

 

From the full article:

 

"It is clear that should one or both parties get dissolved, massive street protests will likely occur. The student protests that grew during Covid were started because of the dissolution of the Future Forward Party. The protesters called for the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his administration, accusing them of suppressing freedom of speech and violating human rights."

 

"If another dissolution occurs, one can expect protests to be even larger in scale."

And let's not forget that at least some of these protests are well organized and well financed. Now who is doing that? The poor grassroot people? Or some rich people of groups with certain interests.

Personally I don't see that Thais have much interest in protest - unless they are paid to protest or maybe teenagers who like the thrill. 

[OneMoreFarang]

4 hours ago, heybruce said:

You don't have to spell it out for us, you have repeatedly made it very clear.  You think that the Thai people shouldn't have democracy unless they vote the way you want them to vote.  You think the same way as Prayut and the elites, and your thinking isn't about democracy.

Democracy?

Is it democracy when people vote for a party who promised them each 10,000B if people vote for that party?

The idea about democracy was some time ago that highly qualified people stand for election and that people with knowledge and experience voted for the best of them. 

That was obviously a long time before the internet and social media and idiots voting for lying entertainers. What is now supposed to be democracy is best case a bad joke.

I can't respect uninformed crowds who vote again and again for known crooks and then expect that those crooks form a competent honest government.

Which part is so difficult to understand that if you vote for corrupt crooks then you will have corrupt crooks as your leaders who do what corrupt crooks do. A hint: They don't do what is good for the people.

So much about the current state of democracy - not only in Thailand. 

 

[zzaa09]

12 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And let's not forget that at least some of these protests are well organized and well financed. Now who is doing that? The poor grassroot people? Or some rich people of groups with certain interests.

Personally I don't see that Thais have much interest in protest - unless they are paid to protest or maybe teenagers who like the thrill. 

Largely a well funded clique - 

I know a boat load of Thais across the country - inner circle, outer circle, outer outer circle - all are indifferent regarding the protests and any such participation. 

[herfiehandbag]

10 hours ago, zzaa09 said:

As history as shown......mass street demonstrations/protest prove little to nothing.

An alternative strategy might be in the fold. 

Three factors come into play.

 

The resolve, quality and quantity of troops and police they can deploy - conscription, corruption (particularly within the police), poor equipment, lack of mobility especially "up country garrisons", level of training and leadership.

 

The scale, resolve, duration and persistence of protests - in particular the almost complete redundancy of the traditional tool of controlling print and broadcast media.

 

International opinion and any reaction - with the very large quantities of money and assets held abroad (in the West, who wants to park money or own property in China or Russia?) the "ruling elite" are very vulnerable to sanctions.

 

 

[herfiehandbag]

9 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Largely a well funded clique - 

I know a boat load of Thais across the country - inner circle, outer circle, outer outer circle - all are indifferent regarding the protests and any such participation. 

The ones who will make the running are the ones (the very large number) who are excluded from those "circles".

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And let's not forget that at least some of these protests are well organized and well financed. Now who is doing that? The poor grassroot people? Or some rich people of groups with certain interests.

Personally I don't see that Thais have much interest in protest - unless they are paid to protest or maybe teenagers who like the thrill. 

I agree the Suthep led protests against elections and democracy seemed well organized and well financed.  The redshirt protests not so much.

 

Regarding Thais not having much interest in protests, that's your Bangkok-centric view.  Try living in the provinces where the majority of Thais live and see how they react to being denied democracy.

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Democracy?

Is it democracy when people vote for a party who promised them each 10,000B if people vote for that party?

The idea about democracy was some time ago that highly qualified people stand for election and that people with knowledge and experience voted for the best of them. 

That was obviously a long time before the internet and social media and idiots voting for lying entertainers. What is now supposed to be democracy is best case a bad joke.

I can't respect uninformed crowds who vote again and again for known crooks and then expect that those crooks form a competent honest government.

Which part is so difficult to understand that if you vote for corrupt crooks then you will have corrupt crooks as your leaders who do what corrupt crooks do. A hint: They don't do what is good for the people.

So much about the current state of democracy - not only in Thailand. 

 

"Which part is so difficult to understand that if you vote for corrupt crooks then you will have corrupt crooks as your leaders who do what corrupt crooks do. A hint: They don't do what is good for the people."

 

And yet Thaksin did enough for the neglected majority of Thais--roads, schools, clinics in the north and northeast--to be unstoppable in elections.  That's why the Bangkok elites resorted the coups to retain power.

 

Better elected crooks than corrupt military government.  The elected crooks can be voted out.  As this topic suggests, the unelected crooks find ways to avoid that.

[zzaa09]

7 minutes ago, heybruce said:

I agree the Suthep led protests against elections and democracy seemed well organized and well financed.  The redshirt protests not so much.

 

Regarding Thais not having much interest in protests, that's your Bangkok-centric view.  Try living in the provinces where the majority of Thais live and see how they react to being denied democracy.

But they're already free, independent and largely self-sufficient - and have been for quite some time. 

Observe their everyday lives and community and you'll witness this democracy [whatever that is] that you speak of.  

[OneMoreFarang]

21 minutes ago, heybruce said:

I agree the Suthep led protests against elections and democracy seemed well organized and well financed.  The redshirt protests not so much.

 

Regarding Thais not having much interest in protests, that's your Bangkok-centric view.  Try living in the provinces where the majority of Thais live and see how they react to being denied democracy.

Your view is obviously a little skewed. 

Here is a picture of one of the many red-shirt barricades.

Not organized? Not financed? For months? Yeah, sure, continue to live in your bubble. 

 

[OneMoreFarang]

21 minutes ago, heybruce said:

"Which part is so difficult to understand that if you vote for corrupt crooks then you will have corrupt crooks as your leaders who do what corrupt crooks do. A hint: They don't do what is good for the people."

 

And yet Thaksin did enough for the neglected majority of Thais--roads, schools, clinics in the north and northeast--to be unstoppable in elections.  That's why the Bangkok elites resorted the coups to retain power.

 

Better elected crooks than corrupt military government.  The elected crooks can be voted out.  As this topic suggests, the unelected crooks find ways to avoid that.

So why don't Thais vote for honest and competent politicians?

Why do they again and again vote for the same crooks or their family and expect a good result.

That doesn't make any sense - at least it doesn't make sense if people think about it for at least a few seconds. 

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, OneMoreFarang said:

So why don't Thais vote for honest and competent politicians?

Why do they again and again vote for the same crooks or their family and expect a good result.

That doesn't make any sense - at least it doesn't make sense if people think about it for at least a few seconds. 

Could it be that they vote for who they believe will be helpful to them as far as monetary policies.

[Wongkitlo]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And let's not forget that at least some of these protests are well organized and well financed. Now who is doing that? The poor grassroot people? Or some rich people of groups with certain interests.

Personally I don't see that Thais have much interest in protest - unless they are paid to protest or maybe teenagers who like the thrill. 

Are you underestimating the power of social media. One person with an internet connection can cause chaos. Only a few hundred baht a month. I have talked to young thais who are very unhappy with the government. Is the first time I have heard Thais openly complain about the institutions. That is a different situation from past protests where there was a calm, highly respected voice saying settle down. 

[OneMoreFarang]

4 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Could it be that they vote for who they believe will be helpful to them as far as monetary policies.

Monetary politics like give me money tomorrow and don't think about the future. 

It's like all the people who are delighted when that nice loan shark gives them money. And then later they wonder why they constantly pay money back and still have no money.

[Wongkitlo]

4 hours ago, madmitch said:

It seems quite possible that PT and MFP together could muster enough seats to get a house majority but not enough to elect a PM as the senate will likely vote en masse for one of those that "elected" them. 

 

The PM could have the power to elect a cabinet consisting of minority party members but would never get anything through Parliament. 

 

It sounds a ridiculous scenario. Am I misunderstanding something here?

Yes. I must admit have trouble seeing how legislation will work. 

[ThailandRyan]

Just now, OneMoreFarang said:

Monetary politics like give me money tomorrow and don't think about the future. 

It's like all the people who are delighted when that nice loan shark gives them money. And then later they wonder why they constantly pay money back and still have no money.

Yet you just hit the proverbial nail on the head.

[SoilSpoil]

23 hours ago, h90 said:

yes no one want that progressive US style politics....
That makes the old dinosaurs the better option.....Where are politicians that are neither old style nor "progressive" dogmatic ultra left, nor some old corrupt oligarchs?

They were disbanded.

[ThailandRyan]

2 minutes ago, Wongkitlo said:

Are you underestimating the power of social media. One person with an internet connection can cause chaos. Only a few hundred baht a month. I have talked to young thais who are very unhappy with the government. Is the first time I have heard Thais openly complain about the institutions. That is a different situation from past protests where there was a calm, highly respected voice saying settle down. 

Never underestimate the social networking which is being followed closely and arrests made by this government over those posts, or have you not been paying attention to the news etc....over the past 5 plus years.

[Eric Loh]

19 minutes ago, heybruce said:

"Which part is so difficult to understand that if you vote for corrupt crooks then you will have corrupt crooks as your leaders who do what corrupt crooks do. A hint: They don't do what is good for the people."

 

And yet Thaksin did enough for the neglected majority of Thais--roads, schools, clinics in the north and northeast--to be unstoppable in elections.  That's why the Bangkok elites resorted the coups to retain power.

 

Better elected crooks than corrupt military government.  The elected crooks can be voted out.  As this topic suggests, the unelected crooks find ways to avoid that.

This history of last 5 coups followed the same disturbing pattern of de-franchising a segment of people’s will to choose their leaders and crushing the any dissent by force. 
 

The 1977 coup mercilessly crushed the infamous Oct 6 protest by people against the return of a military dictator. The 1991’s Black May again crushed peaceful

protest. The last 3 coups by the corrupt 3Ps to restore elites and military dominance over the people. 
 

As you rightly said, corrupt elected leaders can be voted out but not the corrupt coup leaders who shred the constitution and amend for their preservation. Democracy is allowing all eligible citizens to decide their leaders and to hear a poster advocating de-franchising the poor and uneducated to vote is disgusting and nauseating.

 

[OneMoreFarang]

5 minutes ago, Wongkitlo said:

Are you underestimating the power of social media. One person with an internet connection can cause chaos. Only a few hundred baht a month. I have talked to young thais who are very unhappy with the government. Is the first time I have heard Thais openly complain about the institutions. That is a different situation from past protests where there was a calm, highly respected voice saying settle down. 

There is a huge difference between being unhappy and traveling to Bangkok and put up huge barricades and stay there for months. Someone has to pay for it. Most people will not stop working to protest. They can't afford it.

And looking at the past whoever pays for protests does this to get more power and or more money. It has little to nothing to do with politics for the majority of the people or helping the poor. 

[heybruce]

35 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

But they're already free, independent and largely self-sufficient - and have been for quite some time. 

Observe their everyday lives and community and you'll witness this democracy [whatever that is] that you speak of.  

democracy

 

dĭ-mŏk′rə-sē

noun

1. Government by the people, exercised either directly or through elected representatives.
2. A political or social unit that has such a government.
3. The common people, considered as the primary source of political power.

The above is an acceptable definition of democracy.  Do you maintain that Thailand has that?

[heybruce]

30 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Your view is obviously a little skewed. 

Here is a picture of one of the many red-shirt barricades.

Not organized? Not financed? For months? Yeah, sure, continue to live in your bubble. 

 

Really?  You think that a barricade thrown up using tires and bamboo is something that requires great organization and engineering skills?

 

Nice that you didn't dispute my point about Thaksin improving the lives of the majority of Thais.  Too bad the elites don't do that; they wouldn't have to resort to coups if they did.

[heybruce]

22 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

So why don't Thais vote for honest and competent politicians?

Why do they again and again vote for the same crooks or their family and expect a good result.

That doesn't make any sense - at least it doesn't make sense if people think about it for at least a few seconds. 

While it's not for you or me to tell the Thai people how to vote, I suspect their standards don't quite meet up to your illustrious ideals because they have lived their entire lives in an endemically corrupt country ruled by the corrupt elites and military. 

 

Why do you think corrupt military rule is going to change that?

[OneMoreFarang]

5 minutes ago, heybruce said:

Really?  You think that a barricade thrown up using tires and bamboo is something that requires great organization and engineering skills?

 

Nice that you didn't dispute my point about Thaksin improving the lives of the majority of Thais.  Too bad the elites don't do that; they wouldn't have to resort to coups if they did.

"a barricade"? More like a hundred of them on many strategic points. But according to you that doesn't have to be planned, organized and financed. Think again!

 

Thaksin did some good things and he made sure everybody though that he is the messiahs who does all that.

Prayut and others also had many politics who help the poor in many ways. But he and his people are not good at presenting these politics to the people. And Thaksin's local henchmen have obviously no interest to let people believe that other politicians also use taxpayers' money to help the poor.

 

And coming back to the current situation: If Thaksin would come back to help the people and make life better for everybody that would be nice. But that is not what is happening. He wants more power for himself and his family and he wants revenge. He will divide the Thai people even more. And that is the last thing Thailand needs. 

[OneMoreFarang]

13 minutes ago, heybruce said:

While it's not for you or me to tell the Thai people how to vote, I suspect their standards don't quite meet up to your illustrious ideals because they have lived their entire lives in an endemically corrupt country ruled by the corrupt elites and military. 

 

Why do you think corrupt military rule is going to change that?

It seems to me every Thai has a mobile phone with Internet and they look constantly at those phones.

If they would only use 1% of their screen time to learn about the world outside corruption that would be a good start. 

[BritManToo]

1 minute ago, OneMoreFarang said:

He will divide the Thai people even more. And that is the last thing Thailand needs. 

I think it's the Laos and Central languages that really mark the divide in the Thai people.

(you could also add Arabic as the 3rd division)