Quick Analysis: With Pita Gone, What Happens Next?

[BE88]

23 minutes ago, terryofcrete said:

The world is watching Myanmar but no one is helping .... 

No not correct Pita the young leader had promised help to the Myanmar insurgent in his first statements.

[Cabradelmar]

Unfortunately, Pita's political future is entirely in the hands of the CC... they could make him a non-factor for 20  years if he is found to have willfully and knowingly engaged in politics while owning shares in a media company. His long term fate with not be know for months.

[bamnutsak]

PTP 141
BJT 71
Dem 25
PPP 40
UTN 36
 

313

 

CPK 2

CTP 10

 

Srettha vs. Anutin, the Battle of the Builders

 

Upside, Cannabis stays as is. Maybe even gets expanded.

 

 

[bannork]

5 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

PTP 141
BJT 71
Dem 25
PPP 40
UTN 36
 

313

 

CPK 2

CTP 10

 

Srettha vs. Anutin, the Battle of the Builders

 

Upside, Cannabis stays as is. Maybe even gets expanded.

 

 

Including the PPP and UTN will come at a very heavy price politically for PT.

It will mean the end of any claims to be a party that is opposed to military interference in politics.

I can see Thaksin going for it because he just wants to come home and never mind anyone else, but the progressives in PT like Natawut, Chaturon, etc, surely couldn't stomach such a move. 

[Cabradelmar]

What seems clear now is the ham-handed way the June 2022 legalization of ganja was hastily handled, that it was more akin to a down payment for Anutin's future support of the junta's candidates. 

[sammieuk1]

The quick analysis with Pita gone is the swamp fills up with even more rancid detritus ???? 

[anchadian]

Pita advised to take rejection of his re-nomination to Constitutional Court

 

Thailand’s former constitution writer Borwornsak Uwanno suggests that Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat seek a ruling from the Constitutional Court over parliament’s decision, by a majority vote on Wednesday, that Pita’s re-nomination falls foul of its Rule 41.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/pita-advised-to-take-rejection-of-his-re-nomination-to-constitutional-court/

[MrJ2U]

"What Happens Next?"

 

Move Forward will be disbanded. 

 

The Senate will deny Pheu Thai in the next vote.

 

Anutin and Prawit will then form the new government with the unelected Senate's blessing. 

 

 

 

 

[John Drake]

2 hours ago, Robin said:

Pita must have known , or have been told, that any attempt to change the Sec.112 law as political suicide, so why did he  push to policy?

Because that is what made MFP popular and got its victory.

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, bannork said:

An interesting scenario but as  both CTP ( Top) and Bhumjaithai ( Anuthin) have said they will not join a coalition with MF, it's hard to see how they could remain as leaders if that happened, even though Top is Banharn's ( black sheep) son.

Are you saying Newin will overrule Anuthin?

 

 

 

Newin is the founder and shadow leader of BJT just like Thaksin is to PTP. Both hold key decision making for their parties. Anutin was a former TRT MP and had good relationship with Thaksin. 
 

If PTP nominate Sretha and stay faithful with the coalition, it will mean that there are  back room deals done with BJT and some senators to back their nomination next Thursday. Perhaps go easy on the cannabis regulations which is the flagship policy of BJT. 
 

If PTP not successful with their back room dealings, they will invite BJT and CTP to the coalition.

 
I think the first situation is more likely as the Shin family has cultivated strong influences and ties with the elites and military. 

 

 

 

[wombat]

With a Shinawatra in the mix of contenders the outcome is obvious 

[sqwakvfr]

2 hours ago, steven100 said:

I think the world couldn't care less what happens in Thailand .... they all have their own politics to worry about, I expect Thailand cares even less what outsiders think,   remember Thais hate foreigners trying to tell them a better way ... they just ignore. 

Some might.  The people Thailand will care if foreign investment and the Golden Goose that is known as Tourism are negatively impacted because of the political circus.  

[thailand49]

This is nuts !

They call this a Democracy? 

What a country full of clowns now the true meaning 

" Land of Smiles "  what we are seeing shake your head and smile!????  Circus! 

[pacovl46]

Well, I have to say, Pita is quite blue eyed! He's related to Thaksin, he wants to take power away from the military and make amends to the lèse-majesté laws amongst other things and he thought he's gonna get away with it! ???? SMH! 

[skorp13]

My basic understanding is that the peoples vote was for temporary appeasement only, it was never going to count for anything. Don't need a crystal ball to see what's coming in the near future. Soon need to stock up at Macro and Tesco boys and girls

Edited July 20, 2023 by skorp13

[Pink Mist]

A troll post and replies have been removed 

[StayinThailand2much]

Easy... Pheu Thai takes over, later Thaksin does, early 2000s all over again...

[StayinThailand2much]

3 hours ago, Nickcage49 said:

So the vast majority supported Pita, but now the Senate and the courts are denying him the chance to be Prime Minister.

 

I come from a Democracy. I guess I don't recognize this place as one.

You'd think that Move Forward is not a one-man show. Typically, if their candidate for PM is disqualified for whatever reason, there should be an alternative candidate (elected by the party). That's how it would play out in most democratic countries...

[bradiston]

2 hours ago, anchadian said:

Pita advised to take rejection of his re-nomination to Constitutional Court

 

Thailand’s former constitution writer Borwornsak Uwanno suggests that Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat seek a ruling from the Constitutional Court over parliament’s decision, by a majority vote on Wednesday, that Pita’s re-nomination falls foul of its Rule 41.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/pita-advised-to-take-rejection-of-his-re-nomination-to-constitutional-court/

I don't believe there should have been a vote on this. How extraordinarily crass of the coalition to allow it to go ahead. The Speaker should have ruled on it. It wasn't a parliamentary motion. It was the resubmission of a PM candidate, parliamentary procedure.

 

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40029285

 

"However, The Constitution does not restrict the number of times a PM candidate can be put forward for a vote."

Edited July 20, 2023 by bradiston

[Tropposurfer]

7 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

I like the way Mr. Pita left.  He made a short speech, took off his I.D. Badge, placed it on the desk, walk down and gave a fist salute.  In essence he was saying "you won this round but it is not over".   As time go by others like him will emerge.  Also, "the world is watching and this was not a good like for the Land of Smiles".  

 

 

Agree

 

[RichardColeman]

7 hours ago, champers said:

Pita is 42 and can afford to play the long game. Pheu Thai in charge for 4 years with a cobbled together and unsavoury coalition will not harm Pita's future prospects; same if Prawit or Anutin become PM.

MFP will likely have to form a new party and be in opposition but they have done it before and the payback could be a landslide win in 2027.

 

Bit of a daft analysis if those 250 senators are always in place - he'd have ni more chance in 4 years than 100 !

[sirineou]

How is anyone Surprised by any of these? 

On June 7th The following article was posted in the Asean Now forum 

"Prayut To Be Held Accountable For His Deeds Over Last 9 Years: Pita " 

" Pita Limjaroenrat said today (June 6) caretaker prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is yet to be held accountable for whatever loss and damage which he may have caused to the people and country over the last nine years. "

 

 

What did you all think it would happen after such statement? 

Below is a screenshot  of my then reply:

I would never forget this lesson I learned The owner of the company I worked for once told me " You made your point , everything you say after that can only hurt you. 

Unfortunately Pita had either not learned that lesson. had forgotten it. or is stupid. Or perhaps he is politically naive 

     How could saying that had helped Pita? what did he had to gain by say that? He had already won. But the  excitement got the better of him. 

 

[soalbundy]

7 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

I tend to think that political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak had this quite right when he told AFP that the prospect of a military presence in the new government would spark a backlash in a country that is no stranger to political unrest. I will add that the backlash will also manifest in the next election. That will probably be a big deterrent for Phue Thai to consider PPRP or UTN and may even harbour any idea to form a coalition without MFP.

 

I think they will try to bring in the 2 civilian parties in the form of CTP and BJT into the coalition which will be enough to secure the PM position and form the next government. 

 

CTP will be the easier target as they have the history of switching allegiance. THeir party leader Vorawut Silp-archa has said that they are willing to form a coalition with any party that wins the next election.

 

Anutin may have said that he will not be involved in a coalition that has MFP but he also said that he will not be join a minority government. In any case, he is not the leader of BJT, The party shadow leader Newin Chidchop hold the power and he had said that there are no permanent friends or foes in Thai politics while trying to mend ties with Thaksin. 

 

Another factor is that Thaksin actually has friends in the military that may influence the 1/3 senators that are from military and police. He has pivoted away from his tough stand against the military after the brutal encounters and consequences with the military. Yingluck stayed away from key military appointments and even had Prayut moved up to become the army chief during her tenure. 

 

I think there is a real good chance that next Thursday, we may see a new government under PTP.

 

 

 

 

Yes, we are just a few horse trades away for PTP to take the reigns, a compromise, a lesson that can serve Pita well, don't talk so much, lose your innocence (that will always happen in politics) and learn to trade horses.

[Shocked farang]

4 hours ago, prakhonchai nick said:

Anutin has specifically said he will not join a Move Forward coalition that wants to amend the lese majeste laws................But but..........................

The lese majeste laws are the elephant in the room that everyone is afraid to mention. Pita should have avoided this

subject, just for the sake of his own election. 

[sqwakvfr]

How fast would the Army be deployed if protesters showed up at BKK Airport or at the major malls like Siam Paragon or Central World? Just wondering.

[steven100]

4 hours ago, anchadian said:

Pheu Thai to install Srettha as Prime Minister by forming a coalition pact with government parties

 

Pheu Thai shifts to install Srettha as PM - Thai Examiner Move Forward given the elbow by coalition partner Pheu Thai grappling with a political crisis driven by the Senate and Article 112.

https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/07/20/pheu-thai-shifts-to-install-srettha-as-pm-coalition-bhumjaithai-palang-pracharat/

Well,   it's all gone pear shaped as they say ...... 

 

now if he can just get rid of the soi dogs     !!

 

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by steven100

[zzaa09]

3 hours ago, MrJ2U said:

"What Happens Next?"

 

Move Forward will be disbanded. 

 

The Senate will deny Pheu Thai in the next vote.

 

Anutin and Prawit will then form the new government with the unelected Senate's blessing. 

 

 

 

 

Uh-huh.

Same as it ever was.

imagine that. 

 

 

Most were suckered in. 

[Pink Mist]

A posted comment regarding the OP Title has been removed.

 

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[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

Yes, we are just a few horse trades away for PTP to take the reigns, a compromise, a lesson that can serve Pita well, don't talk so much, lose your innocence (that will always happen in politics) and learn to trade horses.

Don’t think MFP was preparing to win. I am sure that were surprised with the election outcome. Lots of lesson learnt which will served them well in the next election. 

[bannork]

21 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Don’t think MFP was preparing to win. I am sure that were surprised with the election outcome. Lots of lesson learnt which will served them well in the next election. 

I agree with one of their chief strategists, Piyabutr, who prior the election, clashed with Pita regarding strategy. Piyabutr argued it was essential MF stick to their policies and not compromise. He argued the public know what they stand for, watering down their goals would only lead to disillusionment with the party.

Even if the party is dissolved and the executives banned for years, they will rise again with a new party.

Plenty of educated Thais want to be part of a party where merit counts more than your family connections.