Financial Crisis Beginning in Thailand

[Peterw42]

1 minute ago, saengd said:

If you google average tourist spend Thailand you'll see that Chinese tourists spend more on average than their western counterparts.

Yes thats right, they actually have the highest daily spend but stay the least amount of time. Europeans are the opposite, they come for the longest amount of time (European winter) but have lowest daily spend (own a condo, eat at home etc)

 

 

[Beggar]

10 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I disagree some empty hotels and restaurants at one location do not translate to your prognosis.

A "financial crisis"  ( I suggest you research the definition) is not beginning nor going to happen.

 

Only a personal one... 

[ivor bigun]

Watching Bloomberg last night ,it was said that Thailand has not had a good year ,but things are expected to pick up next year .

[Ventenio]

I think this is what we call "projection," to some extent.  

 

There have been likely 10 billion threads on the demise of every stock market, every housing "bubble" and every economy since the dawn of the internet.  If rich, you don't waste your time with these threads.  Same with Bitcoin, everything.  Once you get jealous of others making billions and you can't rise to their level, you want them to fall down to your level.  

 

Trust me, the rich don't care.  They make hundreds of millions of baht and enjoy the gloom and doom, as they will make even more.  Oh, wait, some new threads:

 

"Why Google is finished...."

"Why nobody will buy an iPhone again..."

"Why the stock market will go to zero and every country will go back to the stone age...."

"Why an asteroid will destroy the Earth..."

 

Wait, what?  Don't talk about the Chinese, because I don't understand that country.  I only see what I want to see.....

[jackdd]

30 minutes ago, saengd said:

If you google average tourist spend Thailand you'll see that Chinese tourists spend more on average than their western counterparts.

If i Google what you say the first result which takes the length of stay into account is this one: http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

According to this statistic Europeans and Americans spend about 40% more per visit.

But i suspect that the income numbers are taken from tour companies, shopping centers and so on. A western tourist doesn't book a tour with 50 other people in a bus, but he might take a taxi, and this money is not counted towards the western tourist. So in reality it's probably more than 40% more.

When i bought my motorbike this was probably also not credited towards western tourist spending.

Edited November 16, 2019 by jackdd

[Moonlover]

I lived in a country that was suffering from a 'financial crisis' for about 5 years prior to moving here. The symptoms were as follows:

 

Very low foreign reserves which in turn resulted in

A lack of foreign goods on the shelves.

Very difficult to buy foreign currency coupled with a thriving black market.

Severe restrictions on exporting foreign currency (if you could find any)

Fuel shortages.

 

Other symptoms were:

High interest rates on the domestic currency in order to attract inward investment.

Attempts to raise taxes through both direct and indirect taxation.

Removal of subsidies on essential goods.

Little or no investment in infrastructure.

 

I see none of those symptoms here in Thailand, in fact I see very much the opposite and conclude that the O/P is looking at the wrong symptoms and drawing the wrong conclusions.

 

 

[HampiK]

10 minutes ago, jackdd said:

If i Google what you say the first result which takes the length of stay into account is this one: http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

According to this statistic Europeans and Americans spend about 40% more per visit.

But i suspect that the income numbers are taken from tour companies, shopping centers and so on. A western tourist doesn't book a tour with 50 other people in a bus, but he might take a taxi, and this money is not counted towards the western tourist. So in reality it's probably more than 40% more.

When i bought my motorbike this was probably also not credited towards western tourist spending.

I think you talk about 2 different statistics.

One statistic is spend per day.. and as westeners spend longer holiday in Thailand, the amount while in Thailand can be bigger even they spend less per day. But I think this is normal. When I have only 2-3 days to look around, then I try to do as much as possible in a very short time. When I have on the other hand 2-3 weeks then I can do it in a slower run. Therefore not have to spend the same amount in 1 day. as I use 2 days to see the same (enjoy more)

[jackdd]

6 minutes ago, HampiK said:

I think you talk about 2 different statistics.

One statistic is spend per day.. and as westeners spend longer holiday in Thailand, the amount while in Thailand can be bigger even they spend less per day. But I think this is normal. When I have only 2-3 days to look around, then I try to do as much as possible in a very short time. When I have on the other hand 2-3 weeks then I can do it in a slower run. Therefore not have to spend the same amount in 1 day. as I use 2 days to see the same (enjoy more)

The discussion started with my post:

2 hours ago, jackdd said:

They don't understand that more arrivals doesn't mean the total time of all tourists spent in Thailand increases as well.

I think it's quite clear that i'm talking about the time (and thus money) spent per visit.

[Salerno]

9 hours ago, White Christmas13 said:

just one picture I don't want to name the hotel.

In which case you really shouldn't use a pic of the New Dao Cafe that various booking sites use on their sites 

[mauGR1]

59 minutes ago, jackdd said:

If i Google what you say the first result which takes the length of stay into account is this one: http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

According to this statistic Europeans and Americans spend about 40% more per visit.

But i suspect that the income numbers are taken from tour companies, shopping centers and so on. A western tourist doesn't book a tour with 50 other people in a bus, but he might take a taxi, and this money is not counted towards the western tourist. So in reality it's probably more than 40% more.

When i bought my motorbike this was probably also not credited towards western tourist spending.

..And Chinese don't care about sick buffaloes either

[legend49]

11 hours ago, CNXexpat said:

I think you don´t know what a financial crisis is. It has nothing to do with some empty hotels. In Chiang Mai are so many tourists. The streets are full. 

Streets are full LM<deleted>AO. You need to get to an eye/glasses shop.

[legend49]

2 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

Watching Bloomberg last night ,it was said that Thailand has not had a good year ,but things are expected to pick up next year .

It may also rain next year too?

[yellowboat]

12 hours ago, bkk6060 said:

I disagree some empty hotels and restaurants at one location do not translate to your prognosis.

A "financial crisis"  ( I suggest you research the definition) is not beginning nor going to happen.

Always see LoS&D as having two economies: one for the wealthy and the other for everyone else.    1% are privileged, so they are always well off, even when they leveraged themselves to the moon and back in 1997.  For the average Thai, it has been five years on a moribund merry go around of economic doldrums.    The average Thai may face crisis, but not the government or the wealthy.  1997 does not seem like it will reoccur any time soon.  Since that time, there are fewer super rich. 

[saengd]

2 hours ago, jackdd said:

If i Google what you say the first result which takes the length of stay into account is this one: http://www.thaiwebsites.com/tourism-income-Thailand.asp

According to this statistic Europeans and Americans spend about 40% more per visit.

But i suspect that the income numbers are taken from tour companies, shopping centers and so on. A western tourist doesn't book a tour with 50 other people in a bus, but he might take a taxi, and this money is not counted towards the western tourist. So in reality it's probably more than 40% more.

When i bought my motorbike this was probably also not credited towards western tourist spending.

Which is why the only statistics that matters is average spend per day. If you start to factor in length of stay then you also have to factor in number of visitors and clearly China wins that one hands down at 10 mill +.

[jackdd]

3 minutes ago, saengd said:

Which is why the only statistics that matters is average spend per day.

For people in Thailand who rely on tourists only the total number matters: [days spent in Thailand] multiplied by [money spent per day]

As the statistic shows Europeans and Americans spend 40% more per visit than Chinese

 

7 minutes ago, saengd said:

If you start to factor in length of stay then you also have to factor in number of visitors and clearly China wins that one hands down at 10 mill +.

Why should we have to do this?

And even if we do this, western tourists (Europe + America) make up about 7.7 million tourists (according to the stastic which i referenced before). China about 9.8 million. So China has about 27% more visitors, but western tourists spend 40% more money. As we can see you are wrong, western tourists are still more relevant for Thailand's income compared to Chinese.

[craigieboy1973]

Chinese and indians are more welcome in Thailand then westerners done know why they dont spend the money we do but each to there own ..... i no longer stay bkk more then few days but the less customers the more hotels charge ..... instead go home to village spend my money local 

[pookondee]

ThaiVisa punters been predicting Thailands demise ever since there was a ThaiVisa.

 

Also tourism will tank they said...

since...

well, since tourism was 15mill per year.

lol

 

And as far as economies failing,

Do you guys not think the 1st sign of that happening might be the currency plummeting?

 

That would be when investor confidence in a country is completely shot.

 

Meanwhile in the west...

80% in hopeless debt.

Zero interest rates stealing the interest earnings of the few with money, forcing investors into the scam investment platforms..

Either way they to will eventually be broke and the Elite have EVERYTHING.

 

And now, real unemployment rates are being hidden because governments are controlled by greedy corporations,

who will eventually replace all human labour with Technology and AI.

 

So when NO-ONE can afford to buy the goods, economies REALLY will be crashing.

 

(earning 300baht per day might look good when millions are out of work and governments cant afford welfare)

 

While Thailand still has agriculture, exports, and a cheap labour force,

the baht will keep appreciating.

 

Funny thing, they are actually doing all they can to get the baht lower..

and still cant!!

 

 

(And I dont follow the story of the rich powers keeping it high for their overseas investments...thats just BS!)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spidermike007]

9 hours ago, Pravda said:

To be fair when was Thailand a mecca for rich Farang? 

 

I'm sure a few here and there used to come for golfing but that's it. 

Ten to fifteen years ago I had a wealthy friend who came on a ten day trip to Thailand with his wife and two kids. All first class. He told me the trip was costing him $75,000. He is a top London attorney. He never returned. None of my wealthy friends come to Thailand. Those that do, never return. 

[pattayadave]

4 hours ago, Assurancetourix said:

I know it ..

 

A night shot ..and about " The half naked ladies ..." they are not far on the left side of your photo 

 

 

delicious pizza at the restaurant and not expensive ..

Cheap enough hotel but to be honest who wants to spend a two week holiday on the dark side 

[Assurancetourix]

8 minutes ago, pattayadave said:

Cheap enough hotel but to be honest who wants to spend a two week holiday on the dark side 

When we come down from our province, Sakon Nakhon, for a few days of vacation;
we often go to Pattaya because we have Thai and European friends there.
We do not spend 2 weeks but a few days and this hotel a little away from the hot area of Pattaya we like well; nice pool, cheap, good pizzas ... and easy parking for the truck.

[marin]

14 hours ago, Banana7 said:

spent the last week in 2 different resorts and numerous restaurants about 200 km south of Bangkok. These resorts (beach front) have rooms listed in the 3,000-4,000 baht per night range at popular websites like booking.com. I was able to get rooms for 2,000b per night by phoning the hotel directly. During my stays, I was the only patron in both resorts.

 

Next, I visited numerous restaurants, usually beach front, for lunch and dinner. All the restaurants had 40+ seats. In all of the restaurants, at most there were 5 patrons, including my GF and me. Several times, my GF and I were the only patrons. Talking to the owners, they said foreigners had not yet come this year.

 

14 hours ago, Banana7 said:

These are strong indicators that a financial crisis is beginning in Thailand.

 

Maybe in your eyes. What you have shown me is you know little to nothing about finance.  

[SteveK]

My personal opinion is that Thailand eventually wants to become financially independent from tourism altogether, and shed their international reputation as a haven for sex-pats and criminals. If you consider that, then their apparent disinterest in the decline of the tourism industry makes complete sense, and it also explains the ramping up of visa and immigration regulations.

[saengd]

1 hour ago, jackdd said:

For people in Thailand who rely on tourists only the total number matters: [days spent in Thailand] multiplied by [money spent per day]

As the statistic shows Europeans and Americans spend 40% more per visit than Chinese

 

Why should we have to do this?

And even if we do this, western tourists (Europe + America) make up about 7.7 million tourists (according to the stastic which i referenced before). China about 9.8 million. So China has about 27% more visitors, but western tourists spend 40% more money. As we can see you are wrong, western tourists are still more relevant for Thailand's income compared to Chinese.

So you want to compare the number of visits from one continent against the number of visitors from two continents! If you want to combine America and Europe, hows about we group other Rest of East Asia or ASEAN and China! 

[BritManToo]

13 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The mistakes this administration has made are staggering. They have alot to account for, to both the Thai people and the ex-pat community. One can only hope the billionaire generals are held to account, one way or another,  once they are booted from power.

Name one military government that had a thriving economy?

[khunPer]

Is there is a "financial Crisis" I would think that the baht should get weak, however unfortunately it seems like the baht continue to get stronger...????

[CH1961]

11 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Plus, they could not get great wine

Your wealthy friends do not know alcohol is only available from 11am to 2pm and 5pm till midnight ????

[30la]

Thailand has long been plagued by a financial crisis, the government and the central bank keep it hidden and continue to keep the Baht artificially high so as to allow the rich and powerful to become even richer and make up for their losses financial in recent years!

[jackdd]

55 minutes ago, saengd said:

So you want to compare the number of visits from one continent against the number of visitors from two continents! If you want to combine America and Europe, hows about we group other Rest of East Asia or ASEAN and China! 

The number of people living in China is not much different to the number of people living in Europe + America

And as i said before, i have no idea why you want to discuss about this part, this has nothing do with my first post which you claimed to be wrong.

Edited November 16, 2019 by jackdd

[4MyEgo]

16 hours ago, Banana7 said:

several friends in northern Thailand are reporting people are leaving big cities and returning to their home districts to take farm labour jobs. In past years, farm labourers were very difficult to find. Now there is a waiting list to get farm jobs.

I don't know if this is relevant, but the wife told me the other day that the labourers that usually do their rice fields want 400 baht per day, that's 100 baht per day up from the previous year, plus breakfast and lunch to be supplied, previously it was lunch only.

 

The above said, they brought in that rice tractor thingneemajig for less than it would cost to employ the labourers and it wasn't just her parents, the whole of the villagers, those that could afford to get the tractors in, used them, I was also told the tractors had dropped their prices by as much as 2,000 baht, so it would appear the people that usually do the rice labour are going to be out of pocket this year.

 

Just saying, but as for financial crisis, well the stock market looks as if it's due for a big correction and I am sitting on that fence, playing the waiting game. 

[shy coconut]

14 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Western tourism In Thailand has declined to a negligible number of tourists with real money to spend. This is having a dramatic impact on millions of Thai people. The low baht Chinese and Indians are providing the TAT with numbers but the quality of tourists has declined dramatically.  

 

The high baht is hurting exports and a worldwide correction is coming. This will affect a Thailand too. 

 

The mistakes this administration has made are staggering. They have alot to account for, to both the Thai people and the ex-pat community. One can only hope the billionaire generals are held to account, one way or another,  once they are booted from power. 

A list of the staggering mistakes would be interesting especially without hindsight

 

I'm not an apoplgiser for the government, just curious to see your take on it.