Covid-19 Deaths

[marvin1950]

58 people have died from Covid-19 in Thailand.  96 % infected recover. Lockdown and curfew.

 

So  far 7,058 road deaths this year. No lockdown.

No government preventive actions to minimize road deaths.  However, 58 people die from the virus out of a population of 66 million people and the goverment disrupts the economy and welfare of the people.

[Mavideol]

and  ????????

[marvin1950]

Analyze what I said. You can figure it out.

 

[chessman]

For an infectious disease that had and still has the potential to kill 100,000s of people here. You may not agree with how the Thai government handled it but you should at least be able to understand why they took the action they did.

[cmarshall]

Quite a stupid post.  If Thailand had not reacted promptly and followed best practices to contain the virus, Thailand would have been Italy.  

[geriatrickid]

4 hours ago, marvin1950 said:

Analyze what I said. You can figure it out.

 

Yes we can. You are taking a swipe at the Thai governments strategy. Because ti worked, you call it a failure. Have a look at the countries who  have not had a similar approach. It is rather telling when when the Children's Hospital of Texas must stop providing regular care to children because it has to change over to  COVID19 critical care for adults. India is now  being forced to put Covid19 patients in repurposed train cars. These are places which did not follow the Thai strategy.

 

You criticize because Thailand did something right.  You are inconvenienced. We'll make a note of it.

 

[steven100]

5 hours ago, marvin1950 said:

So  far 7,058 road deaths this year. No lockdown.

give it a rest will ya  .....  

[Yinn]

5 hours ago, marvin1950 said:

So  far 7,058 road deaths this year. No lockdown.

No same problem.

 

OBESITY AND MORTALITY. According to the National Institutes of Health, obesity and overweight together are the second leading cause of preventable death in the United States, close behind tobacco use (3). An estimated 300,000 deaths per year are due to the obesity epidemic 

 

 

why isn’t the USA locked down for obesity? Covid deaths obesity people a lot.

 

or the U.K?

The 2013 annual Health Survey for England showed that 61 per cent of adults, and 30 per cent of children aged between two and 15 in England are now either overweight or obese1. The number of adults classed as obese has increased by 60 per cent in the last two decades (from 15 per cent in 1993 to 25 per cent in 2011). In 2004 research by
a House of Commons Select Committee estimated that 34,100 deaths were attributable to obesity — 6.8 per cent of all deaths in England. 

 

 

 

 

More people die obesity in UK and USA. Bigger problem than Thai road death. 

[CLS]

If you eat too much you only harm yourself. No victims involved.

As for road accidents this is mostly not true.

 

[canuckamuck]

The virus went through Thailand long before we heard about it, from there they hardly tested so not many case were recorded. That is the tragedy about what happened to the economy, it was needless.

Edited June 24, 2020 by canuckamuck

[yuyiinthesky]

2 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

The virus went through Thailand long before we heard about it, from there they hardly tested so not many case were recorded. That is the tragedy about what happened to the economy, it was needless.

Also unlike Italy, Sweden, UK, USA there are not many old and obese people in Thailand. Keep in mind that the very big majority of deaths are in the age group of 65 and older.  If I remember correctly in Italy 20% are 65 and older, in Thailand < 10%, and in Cambodia with zero deaths less than 5% are 65 and older. So much less easy victims to harvest for the virus.
 

That is another reason why claiming that It would be like Italy if there would have been no lockdown is nothing but scaremongering.

 

Now how many of the ones posting here are 65 and older? What, so many? Aaaah, that explains why many are so scared.

Edited June 24, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, CLS said:

If you eat too much you only harm yourself. No victims involved.

As for road accidents this is mostly not true.

 

Course,one logic dictates that if you eat too much you are too fat to drive a car and therefore immune to road death

[cmarshall]

5 hours ago, canuckamuck said:

The virus went through Thailand long before we heard about it, from there they hardly tested so not many case were recorded. That is the tragedy about what happened to the economy, it was needless.

A fantasy for which there is, of course, zero evidence.  Thailand didn't test widely, but it did test people entering the country, insisted on quarantine which they checked up on and they did contact tracing.  Plus everyone wore a mask.  That was enough without mass testing.  Japan also controlled the virus without mass testing.

[yuyiinthesky]

17 hours ago, cmarshall said:

A fantasy for which there is, of course, zero evidence.  Thailand didn't test widely, but it did test people entering the country, insisted on quarantine which they checked up on and they did contact tracing.  Plus everyone wore a mask.  That was enough without mass testing.  Japan also controlled the virus without mass testing.

 

When did the virus start to infect people?
When did the infected Chinese stop to pass through Thailand?
When did testing start in Thailand?

Do the maths.

Edited June 25, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

 

When did the virus start to infect people?
When did the infected Chinese stop to pass through Thailand?
When did testing start in Thailand?

Do the maths.

I think it was circulating in Thailand since at least Oct maybe before

 

https://www.covid-19.no/military-athletes-catch-covid-19-in-wuhan-october

 

 

[yuyiinthesky]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

I think it was circulating in Thailand since at least Oct maybe before

 

https://www.covid-19.no/military-athletes-catch-covid-19-in-wuhan-october

 

 

We know that it was in France already in December, despite no obvious connection of the infected to China. 
So it is quite likely that it was also in Thailand at that time already, and possibly as you think even already in October.
 

In any case, plenty of time to go through the population in Thailand and surrounding countries, unnoticed, especially with the low amount of the ones most affected by the virus, the ones 65 years and older.

[yuyiinthesky]

On 6/24/2020 at 10:37 PM, geriatrickid said:

Have a look at the countries who  have not had a similar approach. It is rather telling when when the Children's Hospital of Texas must stop providing regular care to children because it has to change over to  COVID19 critical care for adults. India is now  being forced to put Covid19 patients in repurposed train cars. These are places which did not follow the Thai strategy.

Ok, let‘s look at a country nearby, with similar climate and similar ethnicity, which did not follow the Thai strategy - Cambodia. No draconian lockdown, no curfew, no alcohol ban, no beach ban, no shelter in place, but probably even more Chinese virus carriers from Wuhan passing through.
 

And what happened? Zero deaths. Zero. And again zero. 

Hmmm, impossible I hear you say. Oh well.

[Meat Pie 47]

On 6/25/2020 at 12:09 AM, Yinn said:

No same problem.

 

OBESITY AND MORTALITY. According to the National Institutes of Health, obesity and overweight together are the second leading cause of preventable death in the United States, close behind tobacco use (3). An estimated 300,000 deaths per year are due to the obesity epidemic 

 

 

why isn’t the USA locked down for obesity? Covid deaths obesity people a lot.

 

or the U.K?

The 2013 annual Health Survey for England showed that 61 per cent of adults, and 30 per cent of children aged between two and 15 in England are now either overweight or obese1. The number of adults classed as obese has increased by 60 per cent in the last two decades (from 15 per cent in 1993 to 25 per cent in 2011). In 2004 research by
a House of Commons Select Committee estimated that 34,100 deaths were attributable to obesity — 6.8 per cent of all deaths in England. 

 

 

 

 

More people die obesity in UK and USA. Bigger problem than Thai road death. 

keep coming doctor

[Meat Pie 47]

10 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

We know that it was in France already in December, despite no obvious connection of the infected to China. 
So it is quite likely that it was also in Thailand at that time already, and possibly as you think even already in October.
 

In any case, plenty of time to go through the population in Thailand and surrounding countries, unnoticed, especially with the low amount of the ones most affected by the virus, the ones 65 years and older.

Yes and verified coming from the Italian sewer 

[cmarshall]

7 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Ok, let‘s look at a country nearby, with similar climate and similar ethnicity, which did not follow the Thai strategy - Cambodia. No draconian lockdown, no curfew, no alcohol ban, no beach ban, no shelter in place, but probably even more Chinese virus carriers from Wuhan passing through.
 

And what happened? Zero deaths. Zero. And again zero. 

Hmmm, impossible I hear you say. Oh well.

Thanks so much for the entertaining little sci-fi parody you are spinning.  We can all use a good laugh in these times.  On the off-chance that some reader may not be in on the joke, let's just apply a quick smell test to your theory that differences in infection and death rates are due entirely to variations in co-morbidities which would mean that neither containment (testing, isolation, and tracing) nor mitigation (lockdowns, social distancing, mask wearing, washing hands, etc.) have any significant effect on the outcome.

 

Our natural experiment occurs in China.  Reviewing the Covid statistics for the provinces of China we see a high rate of infection and death in Hubei Province, but not in any other province.  We also know that Wuhan in Hubei Province is where containment failed, enabling community spread of the virus, resulting in lockdowns and aggressive control practices first in Wuhan and shortly thereafter for the whole of Hubei Province.  Thereafter, containment was applied apparently with success to the rest of China.  The net result is that 82% of all Chinese infections and 96% of all deaths occurred in Hubei Province.

 

So, the timeline of the application of containment, mitigation, and containment again explains these differences fully.  Your theory that differential co-morbidities fails, since there is no data to support the theory that the people of Hubei Province uniquely differ from the rest of the Chinese with respect to such co-morbidities.

 

But please keep at it and try to find some other, however far-fetched basis on which to support your insistence that Asian countries cannot possible be more capable than <your favorite failed Western government here.>  Maybe the use of chopsticks accounts for the Asian rate of success.  Even the Thais eat noodles with chopsticks after all.  

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:COVID-19_pandemic_data/China_medical_cases_by_province

Edited June 26, 2020 by cmarshall

[ThailandRyan]

On 6/24/2020 at 5:55 PM, marvin1950 said:

Analyze what I said. You can figure it out.

 

They just do not care is it not obvious.  It is to me.  It is there way of reducing the population through natural selection.  Add into it the fact that if they care, well then the RTP would do there jobs and enforce the laws without fear, favor, or monetary reasons... I do understand your plight and your fight to create safety and your concerns, but having lived in this country for many years, things will never change, because as I said they just do not CARE, why else would a 10, 11, or 12 year old be allowed to ride a MC to the store or for that matter to school.  There is never and has not been accountability in this country.  If you have money then things just disappear.

[yuyiinthesky]

3 hours ago, cmarshall said:

Thanks so much for the entertaining little sci-fi parody you are spinning.  We can all use a good laugh in these times.  On the off-chance that some reader may not be in on the joke, let's just apply a quick smell test to your theory that differences in infection and death rates ... Our natural experiment occurs in China.

Your elaboration about China has absolutely nothing to do with my point, which was a reply to Geriatrickid’s request „Have a look at the countries who  have not had a similar approach <as Thailand>.„
 

My reply was that there are Zero Covid 19 deaths in Cambodia, despite Cambodia not following the Thai strategy. In Cambodia there was no draconian lockdown, no curfew, no alcohol ban, no beach ban, no shelter in place, but probably even more Chinese virus carriers from Wuhan passing through. But nevertheless, zero deaths.

 

I do not see where your exercise about China has anything to do with it.

 

Also I do not see where this is a „sci-fi parody“. The numbers and actions by the countries Thailand and Cambodia are all in the presence and past, no future involved.

 

I understand your wish to have a good laugh, yes, we all do, but may be you should smoke less of that stuff so you can still read and understand what you‘re replying to.

[yuyiinthesky]

3 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

They just do not care is it not obvious.  It is to me.  It is there way of reducing the population through natural selection.  Add into it the fact that if they care, well then the RTP would do there jobs and enforce the laws without fear, favor, or monetary reasons... I do understand your plight and your fight to create safety and your concerns, but having lived in this country for many years, things will never change, because as I said they just do not CARE, why else would a 10, 11, or 12 year old be allowed to ride a MC to the store or for that matter to school.  There is never and has not been accountability in this country.  If you have money then things just disappear.

Unfortunately true. Makes me sad and angry to see everyday. 

[sezze]

11 hours ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Ok, let‘s look at a country nearby, with similar climate and similar ethnicity, which did not follow the Thai strategy - Cambodia. No draconian lockdown, no curfew, no alcohol ban, no beach ban, no shelter in place, but probably even more Chinese virus carriers from Wuhan passing through.
 

And what happened? Zero deaths. Zero. And again zero. 

Hmmm, impossible I hear you say. Oh well.

What it means , idk , but i probably guessing that culture got something to do with it ( people living more outside home then inside home ) , maybe genetics , ... . Maybe its like just pure luck so far . Fact is , some countries so far have extremely low nrs without rumours otherwise . In Covid , there is a certain kind of person which is known as superspreaders and in science this is called K-value . This nr represents the amount of people making other people sick , while the R-value only uses the nrs in general of spreading . In covid this nr is very low , meaning , some people create loads off cases while others don't even if they are infected . Maybe no superspreaders so far have come along , ... maybe future will tell us , but i do not believe that they skipped the rope thx to fast reaction .

[yuyiinthesky]

4 hours ago, cmarshall said:

But please keep at it and try to find some other, however far-fetched basis on which to support your insistence that Asian countries cannot possible be more capable than <your favorite failed Western government here.> 

From my post you could imply that I think that Cambodia was more capable than Thailand. Last time I checked Cambodia was a neighbor of Thailand, Member of ASEAN, and right there in Asia. 
 

Feel free to look it up, if you don‘t want to believe me: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambodia

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by yuyiinthesky

[cmarshall]

7 minutes ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Your elaboration about China has absolutely nothing to do with my point, which was a reply to Geriatrickid’s request „Have a look at the countries who  have not had a similar approach <as Thailand>.„
 

My reply was that there are Zero Covid 19 deaths in Cambodia, despite Cambodia not following the Thai strategy. In Cambodia there was no draconian lockdown, no curfew, no alcohol ban, no beach ban, no shelter in place, but probably even more Chinese virus carriers from Wuhan passing through. But nevertheless, zero deaths.

 

I do not see where your exercise about China has anything to do with it.

 

Also I do not see where this is a „sci-fi parody“. The numbers and actions by the countries Thailand and Cambodia are all in the presence and past, no future involved.

 

I understand your wish to have a good laugh, yes, we all do, but may be you should smoke less of that stuff so you can still read and understand what you‘re replying to.

The cited example of Hubei Province compared to the rest of China shows pretty conclusively that when containment fails, as it did in Hubei, mitigation stringently applied is necessary to stop the spread of the virus.  In the rest of China containment succeeded, i.e testing, isolation of positives, and contact tracing.   

 

So, what the epidemiologists have been telling us is borne out by the data.  If a government is surveilling the emergence of new viruses in China and has a plan ready to test, isolate and trace contacts which it applies vigorously, then it can contain the virus without a lockdown.  This is what S. Korea and Taiwan did so successfully.  China did the same after its initial failure in Hubei with similar success.  

 

I don't know what transpired in Cambodia since I haven't read any coverage of the pandemic there.  Do you have a source for your claim of Chinese virus carriers entering Cambodia or are you just making that up?

 

But in any case it's foolish to generalize about the necessity of measures like lockdowns outside the context of where on the exponential growth curve the epidemic happens to be at the point under consideration.  Neither S. Korea nor Taiwan ever had a lockdown, but they never needed to, because they contained the virus before it got to the stage where the only remaining option was a lockdown, unlike all of the Western countries.  

[ThailandRyan]

3 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

The cited example of Hubei Province compared to the rest of China shows pretty conclusively that when containment fails, as it did in Hubei, mitigation stringently applied is necessary to stop the spread of the virus.  In the rest of China containment succeeded, i.e testing, isolation of positives, and contact tracing.   

 

So, what the epidemiologists have been telling us is borne out by the data.  If a government is surveilling the emergence of new viruses in China and has a plan ready to test, isolate and trace contacts which it applies vigorously, then it can contain the virus without a lockdown.  This is what S. Korea and Taiwan did so successfully.  China did the same after its initial failure in Hubei with similar success.  

 

I don't know what transpired in Cambodia since I haven't read any coverage of the pandemic there.  Do you have a source for your claim of Chinese virus carriers entering Cambodia or are you just making that up?

 

But in any case it's foolish to generalize about the necessity of measures like lockdowns outside the context of where on the exponential growth curve the epidemic happens to be at the point under consideration.  Neither S. Korea nor Taiwan ever had a lockdown, but they never needed to, because they contained the virus before it got to the stage where the only remaining option was a lockdown, unlike all of the Western countries.  

So with what you have stated then a lockdown here was not warranted and then because the testing was never done to the extent as it was in S. Korea and China, what does that actually say about the lockdown here...

[Dumbastheycome]

On 6/25/2020 at 2:32 AM, yuyiinthesky said:

Also unlike Italy, Sweden, UK, USA there are not many old and obese people in Thailand. Keep in mind that the very big majority of deaths are in the age group of 65 and older.  If I remember correctly in Italy 20% are 65 and older, in Thailand < 10%, and in Cambodia with zero deaths less than 5% are 65 and older. So much less easy victims to harvest for the virus.
 

That is another reason why claiming that It would be like Italy if there would have been no lockdown is nothing but scaremongering.

 

Now how many of the ones posting here are 65 and older? What, so many? Aaaah, that explains why many are so scared.

You might need to  fact check your stats of the elderly (65+ ) in Thailand !https://www.statista.com/statistics/713667/thailand-forecast-aging-population/

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Dumbastheycome
reference

[yuyiinthesky]

30 minutes ago, cmarshall said:

I don't know what transpired in Cambodia since I haven't read any coverage of the pandemic there.  Do you have a source for your claim of Chinese virus carriers entering Cambodia or are you just making that up?

You might have heard about Angkor Wat and the Chinese tourist streams going there, or Sihanoukville, which became a Chinese casino town. Tens of thousands of Chinese did pass through there, all the time. You think by some wonderful miracle none of them were infected, unlike the Chinese travelers going elsewhere?

[cmarshall]

21 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

So with what you have stated then a lockdown here was not warranted and then because the testing was never done to the extent as it was in S. Korea and China, what does that actually say about the lockdown here...

From the reports that I have seen Thailand succeeded in containing the virus, despite lacking the resources of richer countries like S. Korea and Taiwan, because of these factors:

 

1. a very capable public health bureaucracy took charge of the response and communicated in a clear and consistent way with the public, for instance, via the daily TV briefings.

 

2.  The politicians did not interfere with the public health bureaucracy, permitting the experts to manage the crisis.

 

3.  Although Thailand never did widespread testing, it did test arrivals in the country, quarantined them including with daily checks by public health workers, and traced contacts.  

 

4.  Inward travel by air was restricted.  Taiwan did this also.  But Bangkok is a hub, which means it was an even more necessary step here with a relatively higher economic cost.

 

5.  The Thai people were willing to stay at home as much as possible and quite willing to wear a mask.

 

6.  Thailand took all of these steps quickly enough that they were effective.  

 

Had Thailand had the resources to do widespread testing the way S. Korea and Taiwan did, it might have been able to contain the outbreak without a lockdown, but Thailand didn't have the capacity for wide scale testing.